Posts Tagged ‘theory’

There are some hands that I almost always 3-bet (AA, KK) and some that I almost never 3-bet (72, 95), but in the middle are a whole bunch of hands and spots that are at least kind of close. What if you are 100BB deep, a tight-aggressive player opens UTG, and you hold AKo UTG+1? What if the effective stacks are 200BB, UTG+1 opens, CO calls, and you hold KJs on the button? What if you are in the SB with KQo and a tight-aggressive player opens on the CO?

What’s really important in these closer spots is how good your opponents are. Remember that most players are going to make bigger post-flop mistakes when stacks are deep relative to the pot size than when they are shallow. This is especially true when you have position, though you may also find that against better players you 3-bet hands like KQo from out of position in order to make the stacks shallower for your own benefit whereas you are more comfortable making post-flop decisions out of position against less-talented opposition.

In light of my recent article on Creative Bet Sizing, here are two river check-raise overbets I made against the same player. The situations are similar: I have an unlikely monster hand and my opponent has a well-defined strong-but-not-too-strong hand. By “well-defined”, I mean that he probably realizes that I know roughly what he has and specifically that he is very unlikely to have a huge hand. That puts him in a rough spot when I overbet, because he doesn’t know what I will do with the information I have, ie whether I am trying to get value or force him out.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $20.00 BB (2 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) ($6099)
Button ($4299)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, 5
Button raises to $54, Hero calls $34

Flop: ($108) 5, 10, A (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

Turn: ($108) J (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

River: ($108) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $55, Hero raises to $345, 1 fold

Total pot: $218 | Rake: $0.50

Hero: LOL

You may wonder why I say I think he has some kind of hand here. It’s because he’s passed on two good bluffing opportunities on the flop and turn. That tells me has something, and based on how he’d been playing, I expected him to try for thin value with a lot of his range on the river.  Read the complete post...

My latest poker strategy article, Creative Bet Sizing, is now appearing in the December edition of 2+2 Internet Magazine. The article examines underbetting and overbetting as examples of how to add unconventional plays into your arsenal. Here’s an excerpt from the section on overbetting the pot:

Big bets are simply harder to play against than smaller bets. Any edge that you have over an opponent, whether it is position, better cards, or superior skill, is magnified by pot and bet size. This doesn’t mean that every bet you make should be all in. But if you believe that an opponent will make comparable mistakes whether you bet 70% of pot or 125% of pot, the latter option will be far more profitable.

A good rule of thumb about overbetting is that the larger your bet, the more likely it is to induce a raise-or-fold response from your opponent and the less likely it is to be simply called. How exactly you use that information will depend on factors like your hand, your opponent, and the size of the effective stacks.

A triple barrel bluff will by definition involve at least three bets. Especially when dealing with a player who can read hands well, sizing these bets will often be the difference between success and failure.

As I discussed in a previous post, your objective on early streets may actually be to get called. Since you are going to be bluffing later anyway, it behooves you to build a bigger pot to steal. Your other objective on early streets is to lay the groundwork that will enable you to represent a monster by the river. That means your betsizing must be consistent with the hand(s) you want to represent.

On the river, your objective is to make the most +EV bluff that you can. Remember that this is not always the bluff that succeeds most often. Tripling your bet size to double your fold equity is not a winning proposition.

Let’s start by looking at how not to do that. I played this hand against a very good player, one of the best at these stakes:

Full Tilt Poker, $5/$10 NL Hold’em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com – Hand History Converter

CO: $1,022
Hero (BTN): $2,349.75
SB: $2,169
BB: $3,128
UTG: $779.75
MP: $1,309

Pre-Flop: 8 T dealt to Hero (BTN)
3 folds, Hero raises to $35, SB folds, BB raises to $130, Hero calls $95  Read the complete post...

Event 4 was a $300 NLHE tournament that allowed one $300 rebuy and one $3000 add-on. The initial $300 bought 2000 chips, the rebuy bought 2000 chips anytime during the first hour that you had 2000 chips or fewer, and the add-on bought $2500 chips at the end of first hour.

There are two seminal books that address the value of tournament chips: David Sklansky’s Tournament Poker for Advanced Players and Mason Malmuth’s Gambling Theory and Other Topics. I haven’t read Malmuth’s book, but my understanding is that both make a similar argument that this value is non-linear. Another words, your last chip is worth more than your second to last chip is worth more than your third to last chip etc. Each chip you add to your stack increases the value of your stack, but by less than the preceeding chip did. So if you have on chip worth x, and you double up, your stack is worth marginally less than 2x. And if you double again, your stack will not be worth 4x. This is because survival has value in a tournament where all of the prize pool is not paid to the winner.  Read the complete post...