Posts Tagged ‘thin value bet’

The wait is over! I’m flattered by everyone who’s been asking about this. Part 1 of my PCA Trip Report is now appearing in 2+2 Magazine. Part 2 will be in next month’s magazine. Here’s a snippet from one of the more interesting hands I played:

Saskatchewan limped UTG again, Belgium limped behind, and I raised to 1,000 with A4o in the CO. This raise really blurs the line between “value” and “making a move”, since I do expect to win often with a continuation bet but I also think A4 is ahead of both of their ranges. Essentially I’ve got position and the best hand, so even though it might be tricky to play post-flop, I don’t see how raising can be bad. Saskatchewan joked about how “you internet guys don’t allow limping” and called, and Belgium called as well. They both checked a K83 rainbow, I bet 1,600, Saskatchewan folded, and Belgium quickly raised to 5,100. I was sure he was making a move, so I considered my options.

This trip report focuses almost exclusively on the poker. If you want to read about the rest of the trip, check out Hello, Goodbye, Team Online.

As always, please let me know what you think!

This week’s WYP is a little different, in that I don’t have a strong opinion about what’s best. I was actually hoping some of you smart people could help me out there, in particular with regard to how V2′s question and timing on the turn influences his range. My own, possibly results-oriented thinking was that it might weight him towards weaker draws. With a flush draw or open-ended draw, I think he might call without really thinking about it. If he’s asking, that could weight him towards gutshots or something like an 8 that has a chance of being good (in his eyes – no one’s saying he’s a great hand reader) plus some outs to improve. I also thought Gareth’s suggestion was interesting that V2′s indecision may have been “between calling/raising with a hand like 86s”.

I say I may be results oriented because I bet 3000, V1 sighed and folded, and V2 called with Jh 8h.

Value Betting

As many of you identified, Hero is very likely to have the best hand on the river. The question, however is not only how but whether he can get value from it. Especially in multi-way pots, where people tend to be more tight and passive, it can be difficult to get value from medium-strength hands.  Read the complete post...

This is really the second WYP from the PCA, but the first was technically a “What’s Your Plan?”, and I couldn’t think of a catchier name for this one. It takes during Level 2 of the tournament, with blinds of 75/150 and effective stacks of well over 20K (I forget how much exactly but it wasn’t relevant for the hand).

Hero: It’s me. Late 20′s, wearing a PokerStars Team Online patch and sunglasses, not saying much but friendly when I do happen my mouth. I’ve been quiet so far and recently showed down KK in a 3-bet pot.

Villain 1: Middle-aged Canadian, recreational player, on the loose-passive side. He limps more than he raises in early position.

Villain 2: Young Spanish kid, maybe 22 at the oldest. This is likely one of the biggest events he’s played, as he’s giving off a bit of a “scared money”-vibe.

Villain 1 opens to 450 in early position, Villain 2 calls in the CO, and Hero calls with As Qs in the SB. The flop came Qd 8c 2h and checks all the way around. Hero bets 900 on a 6c turn, Villain 1 quickly calls, and Villain 2 asks how much, thinks for 15-20 seconds, and calls.  Read the complete post...

 Thanks to everyone who commented on this week’s “What’s Your Play?” Sorry for the delay in getting results up; I’m currently visiting old friends and a new baby in New York, and the days have been busy.

We’ll start with the results:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, 320 Tournament, 200/400 Blinds 50 Ante (8 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button (t24118)
SB (t25330)
BB (t9032)
UTG (t8323)
UTG+1 (t25215)
MP1 (t13846)
Hero (MP2) (t16901)
CO (t31444)

Hero’s M: 16.90

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A♦, 4♥
3 folds, Hero bets t800, 1 fold, Button calls t800, 2 folds

Flop: (t2600) 4♦, 4♠, K♥ (2 players)
Hero bets t1666, Button raises to t3640, Hero calls t1974

Turn: (t9880) 10♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

River: (t9880) 7♦ (2 players)
Hero bets t12411 (All-In), Button calls t12411

Total pot: t34702

Results:
Button had K♦, Q♦ (two pair, Kings and fours).
Hero had A♦, 4♥ (three of a kind, fours).
Outcome: Hero won t34702

As many commenters identified, the crux of this hand is in recognizing that Hero’s hand looks reasonably strong after calling the flop raise. Many of you made compelling arguments for 3-betting the flop, which I’ll come back to in a moment.  Read the complete post...

I took plenty of notes for a full write-up, but for now I’ll just say that we started with 30K and I finished with 38.5K. I think the average is between 50 and 60, and blinds will be 500/1000/100 on Monday, so I’m in OK shape. I had two other PokerStars Team Online members at my table, first Bjorn Schneider on my left than Jorge Limon on my right. Other than Bjorn and a pretty good Dutch player my starting table was probably softer than average. By the end of the day we had Jorge and two other good high-stakes cash players, so it was pretty tough then.

I played a funny hand against one of them. Blinds were 400/800/100, and I opened to 2000 with K9s in the HJ. He called in the BB and check-called 2400 on a T55r flop. We both checked an 8 turn, then he bet 5600 on a T river. I wasn’t 100% sure he wouldn’t value bet an A, but I doubted it. I did think he was capable of floating out of position, and this was an ideal spot for it. So I called, and he showed A3 and seemed surprised to win the pot. “I was trying to bluff you off a chop” he told me. Lovely.  Read the complete post...

I was inundated with requests for reviews over the holidays, so I asked a friend if he’d be interested in taking one of them. Thus, the review for Nathan Williams’ Crushing the Micro-Stakes can be found on Gareth Chantler’s blog. If you read the comments here on Thinking Poker, you know that Gareth’s got a great poker mind and expresses himself well, so I think you’ll enjoy his review, and I assure you that you can trust his opinion.

While you’re there, check out some of Gareth’s other posts as well. Like mine, his blog is a nice mix of strategy content and anecdotes from his travels. Gareth, originally from Canada, is currently backpacking through South America while playing a mix of live and online poker. He’s got some fascinating and funny stories that are well worth the read.

Sorry again for the error in my original What’s Your Plan? post. It certainly wasn’t deliberate, but in a weird way it did help to highlight one of the central points of this exercise, which is the significance of Villain’s pre-flop stats and our general read on him.

Most high-volume MTT players are very predictable in the early stages of tournaments. This isn’t so much because they value their survival or because they don’t know how to play deep-stacked but simply because it is more profitable for them to play more games and more or less write off the early stages. They will accumulate a few chips if they get good cards, but if not they will wait until stacks get shorter and the antes kick in. This is where they really shine and where their decisions have a higher impact on their equity, so they choose to focus on tournaments that have already reached this stage and play more straightforwardly in the early levels of their other games.  Read the complete post...

This week’s WYP didn’t prove too controversial, but it generated some good discussion nonetheless. I must say that I’m a little disappointed more of you weren’t tempted to make the same mistake I did:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $6.00 BB (6 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($2845.40)
BB ($1543.40)
UTG ($798.80)
Hero (MP) ($1573.80)
CO ($2739.30)
Button ($664.40)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q♥, K♥
UTG bets $18, Hero calls $18, 2 folds, SB calls $15, BB calls $12

Flop: ($79.20) K♠, Q♦, 7♥ (4 players)
SB bets $39, 1 fold, UTG calls $39, Hero raises to $159.90, SB calls $120.90, 1 fold

Turn: ($438) 9♦ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($438) 4♣ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $284.25, SB raises to $2666.30 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: $1006.50 | Rake: $3

Results:
SB didn’t show
Outcome: SB won $1003.50

I think the consensus among the commenters is correct and checking is better. Even at the time part of me was thinking it wouldn’t be easy to get called by worse and I could get raised by both better and worse. But, like Fuel55, I then told myself that checking top two would be too weak. Nate made the case for checking very well:  Read the complete post...