Follow Ben on Twitter to keep up with his latest projects!

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome with Ben Saxton
54:32 -Strategy

Links

Tournament Poker Edge
Poker Faces
Biggest Game in Town
The Big Deal
The Professor, the Banker, and the Suicide King
As I Lay Dying
The Sound and the Fury
The Heart is a Lonely Hunter
The Ballad of the Sad Cafe

Strategy

I am in the cutoff. Main villain open limps UTG +1, two more limpers. I have A10 offsuit and raise to £15. Folds around to the villain, he calls, and the other limpers fold. Heads up to the flop with £37 in the middle.

Flop is Ah, Ac, 6h. (I do not hold a heart.) Villain checks and I check behind.

Turn is the Qh. Villain bets out £17, about half pot, very quickly. I call.

River is an offsuit 4. He checks. Hero?

Now through the end of 2018, I’m offering 25% off custom strategy videos when you purchase two hours or more. That’s two hours for just $150!

Get the most out of your poker study time with a poker strategy videos custom-tailored to your needs. If you play online, I can review a database or hand history for you, identify your specific leaks, and suggest study material to help you plug them. Even if you don’t play online, I can review hand histories from live play, answer your questions thoroughly, and help you focus your independent study on the most important topics for your improvement.

You can find more details and a full-length sample video at https://www.thinkingpoker.net/coaching/poker-coaching-programs/custom-video-review/. To purchase your videos, comment here or email andrew at thinkingpoker dot net.

Links

Contribute to Andrew’s BAUDL Fundraising Campaign or learn more about it
Shop with our Amazon affiliate links
Episode 253 with Bryan Devonshire

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & welcome!
12:43 – Strategy

Strategy

It’s a 2c/5c NLHE zoom poker game, 6 handed, on Bovada. I have $10.50 in my stack and villain has me covered, so we are at 210 blinds effective.

I am first to act with black QQ. I elect to limp and immediately get raised to 20c by UTG +1. It folds back around to me. I call.

We go to the flop with 47 cents in the pot. Qd Jc 9d. I check, and villain checks back.

Turn is an offsuit Jack, I check Villain bet 33c into 47c, and I raise pot, making it $1.46 to go. He calls.

We go to the river with $3.39 in the pot and about $8.80 in effective stacks. River is the 5 of hearts. I elect to overbet about 1.5x pot, $5.18.

Timestamps

0:30 Hello & Welcome
4:25 Strategy

Strategy

$0.50/$1 NLHE, $400 effective stacks

Y straddles UTG to $3.50. Z opens to $12 UTG+2 with As 3s. BN calls, Z calls JJ.

Flop ($37.50) K62ss. Y checks, Z bets $30, BN folds, Y calls.

Turn ($97.50) Js. Y checks, Z checks.

River ($97.50) 6d. Y bets $60, Z raises to $150, Y shoves $350, Z calls.

Bloch discussed Full Tilt Poker and Black Friday at length with Diamond Flush Poker. We discussed the subject, and The Lederer Files, with Matt Parvis on Episode 7.

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome
11:48 – Strategy
34:40 – Andy Bloch

Our first interview with Clayton was Episode 74. We discussed his 96th place finish in the 2015 Main Event on Episode 145. And in 2017, we talked about how he prepares for the WSOP on Episode 216.

Timestamps

0:30 – hello
25:25 – strat

Strategy

Sorry, you’re on your own. I’m on vacation!

0:30 Hello & Welcome
54:53 Strategy

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome
6:53 – Zach Elwood
56:27 – Strategy

This is my third read-through, so the material itself isn’t novel to me. However, I still find reading it a useful reminder of just how much there is to pick up on and exploit, if you pay attention. For all of my work with Pio and whatnot, I still think that getting better at exploiting verbal and physical behavior is the area of study with the potential for the largest returns, especially at the WSOP where there are so many amateur players and everyone is so emotionally invested in the outcomes.

Here’s an interesting spot from a recent game where I got a lot of information from my opponent, though I remain uncertain whether I processed it correctly.

The game was 5/10 no-limit, and we were six-handed. The main Villain in this hand, as well as the BB, were both extremely loose, especially before the flop, and I’d been raising them a lot. Villain had expressed some annoyance with this, and while his play was mostly passive, he had attempted a few bluffs against me. Once I picked him off with a full house and once with Ace-high. That second call got some eye rolls and under-the-breath muttering, and he’d been a lot more passive since.

I straddled the button for $20. Villain limped UTG, and I raised to $100 with QTo. The BB and Villain called.

Flop ($305) Qc 8s 7h. Check to me, I bet $150, only Villain called.

Turn ($505) 5d. Villain checked, I bet $400, Villain shuffled chips for a while, then moved all in for $1400 total.

As I pondered the situation, he muttered, “I’m already there.”

On the one hand, a willingness to speak at all in a large pot indicates some strength. It’s a sign of relaxation. Bluffers are often tense and trying not to draw attention to themselves.

However, claiming to have a strong hand is a classic strong-means-weak tell. Overall, this statement made me more inclined to call.

I pressed him for more information, though. “Already where?” I asked. “That’s the question.”

“I got it, man. I’m made.”

“You got what?”

“I got you, man. You’re beat. I mean, you might get there on the river, but I got you right now.”

This was all feeding the strong-means-weak story. “I don’t have a draw,” I told him. “If I’m beat, I’m beat.”

He visibly relaxed when I said that. “Oh,” he said. “Then I don’t care what you do.” He sat back in his chair and crossed his arms.

I interpreted this as a truthful statement. It’s actually not that uncommon, in a large pot, for many players to try to get folds even when they’re ahead. The potential for getting drawn out on would explain his nervousness. A lot of his behavior was ambiguous; the strong-means-weak tell is well enough known that I wouldn’t be shocked to see it employed in reverse. But his relaxation when I told him I didn’t have a draw felt genuine. Of all of his behavior, that was the piece I felt most comfortable relying on.

For better or worse, I folded. It’s important to note that despite the pre-flop action, hands like AQ, KQ, 96 (definitely suited, maybe even offsuit), 75s, and perhaps even 85s are in his range for seeing the turn. My biggest concern was whether he’d shove the turn with something like 76, but that seemed unlikely given his worry about my having a draw.

He showed me a 5 after I folded. I don’t think 55 is impossible for him, even with the flop call, but I do think it’s unlikely. If I had to guess a single hand for him, I’d say 75s.

I’m not at all sure folding was correct here; I was getting pretty good odds. However, it’s the most interesting spot I’ve had in a while in terms of the physical and verbal behavior of an opponent, so I thought it would be interesting to share. How would you have interpreted this behavior?

PS If you decide to purchase Zach’s book, which I highly recommend, please use this affiliate link. You’ll find Exploiting Poker Tells there along with his other books (all excellent, in fact you’ll get more out of Exploiting if you read the others too) and his video course. As you might imagine, it can be quite helpful to see videos of players performing the various behaviors he describes!

In the strategy segment, Andrew address tangling with the chipleader and making thin value bets at the final table (or rather, about not doing those things).

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome
6:12 – Strategy
25:34 – Josh Nixon

Strategy

Six players remain at a final table. Payouts are:
$4000
$2700
$2000
$1460
$1020
$900

Stacks:
LJ 360K
HJ 273
Hero (CO) 558K
BN 393K
SB 231K
Ian Simpson (BB) 749K

Blinds 4500/9000/1125
Hero opens 22,500 in the CO with Qs 5s.

Flop (56K in pot) Js 4c 5h
BB checks, Hero bets 22,500, BB calls.

Turn (101K in pot) 2c
Both check.

River (101K in pot) 7h
Villain checks. Hero?

My new Fundamentals of Game Theory course is a series of lessons to introduce you, step by step, to fundamental game theory concepts and help you apply them to real world poker situations. This course is not about trying to memorize and implement solver solutions in your actual play; it’s about studying solutions in order to learn the core principles of optimal play, so that you can recognize and exploit opponents who play sub-optimally.

There’s no predefined starting point. I’ve created a series of scaffolded lessons that start from zero and build up to analyzing a full solver solution for a common flop situation. Where we start in that progression will depend on how comfortable you already are game theoretical concepts.

Every session is built around a toy game or scenario that you’ll attempt to analyze and interpret for yourself and then discuss with me over Skype. All lessons can be completed with any GTO solver, though I’m best prepared to help you with either CREV or Pio. The first few lessons can even be completed with the free version of PioSolver.

For questions, more information, or to sign up, please comment here or write andrew (at) thinkingpoker (dot) net.

Timestamps

0:30 Hello & Welcome
3:47 Strategy
21:46 Helen Ellis

Strategy

1/2 NL

Villain straddles, I raise AdQd to $16 from MP and get 2 callers, Villain raises to $40.

I look at his stack and see what looks like $60ish in red with a $100 bill. I call, other two fold.

Flop AsKc6s (pot $112)

Checks to me and I bet $70. He raises all in and I learn he has two hundred dollar bills and it’s $140 more to me…

Many poker players are introduced to game theoretical concepts like balance and indifference in the form of a simple example in which one player holds a bluff-catcher and faces a bet from a polarized range. These players tend to understand that there is some sort of theoretically optimal ratio of bluffs to value bets for the betting player, even if they don’t fully appreciate what it is, where it comes from, or why it matters. Likewise, they understand that there exists some optimal calling frequency for the bluff-catching player, though they may not know exactly how to calculate it.

Though not technically wrong, this simple example misrepresents the complexity of the real life situations that arise much more frequently. In fact, most ranges aren’t perfectly polarized, at least not at equilibrium. That is, in the majority of real no-limit hold ‘em situations, there are good game theoretical reasons to bet a variety of types of hands, many of which will not slot into neat categories of “bluff” and “value bet”.

It is in these more complex situations where understanding the game theory behind poker is most valuable. So, while it’s a good starting point to learn the game theory of a simple situation such as the one above, it’s not hard to see why players who understand only this situation fail to see the utility of game theoretical approaches. This article will consider, in broad strokes, the game theory underlying more complex bluffing and bluff-catching scenarios. While it is admittedly not practical (and often not desirable) to memorize and implement perfectly balanced mixed strategies, understanding the basic theory behind these strategies is quite useful for crafting exploitive strategies.

Part One is now live, and the rest should be going up over the course of the next week or so.

If you’re not yet a Tournament Poker Edge member, let this be your impetus to sign up!

Timestamps

0:30 hello
9:35 strat
51:43 extra strat

Strategy

Hand 1 – 3/5 NL

Couple of limps, CO raises to $25, BN calls, Hero calls Ah 6h in the SB, one MP limper calls.

Ac 2h Ks. Checks to CO who bets $55, BN folds, Hero calls, MP calls.

8h ($280 in pot). Checks to CO, CO bets $125, Hero calls, MP calls.

8d ($655 in pot). Checks to CO who bets $285. Hero?

Hand 2 – Tournament, effective stacks 35bb

CO opens 2.5bb, Hero calls 9d 8d in the SB.

9s 5h 4d (8.5b in pot). Checks to CO, who bets 9bb. Hero calls.

5s (26.5bb in pot). Both check.

Js (26.5bb in pot). Check, CO shoves, Hero?

The Washington Post ran a story about Jamal shortly after his commutation.

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome
5:50 – Strategy
35:35 – Interview: Jamal Hanson

Strategy

This is 2-3 NLH game (9 handed). There is a $6 straddle for this hand. It’s folded to me in middle position and I raise to $17 with the KdQh. The button calls and the straddle calls. Effective stacks are $300.

Flop: KhJc6d

Straddler checks, I bet $30 into the $50 pot. Button calls and the straddler folds.

Turn: KhJc6d 9d

I check The button quickly bets $60 into $110. I call.

River: KhJc6d 9d 10s

Hero?

The great thing about this kind of review is that the hand examples come from the smaller stakes tournaments that most members play, which provides plenty of opportunity to talk about what does and doesn’t work against those kinds of opponents.

If you’re not already a member, this is a great time to sign up and get access to this plus dozens of my other videos and hundreds more from other instructors!

Oh and do check out the KL Cleeton interview if you haven’t already, it’s one of my favorites from this year!t

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello and Welcome
4:12 – Andrew Thierrault
72:00 – Strategy

Strategy

$150 NLH WSOP Circuit event at the Bike, Dec 2015.

Near the end of level 8 (300/600 + 75 ante), I was UTG 8-handed with about a starting stack (10.7k) I raise to 1500 with Jd Jc. Folds around to BB, who calls.

With 3.9k in the pot, flop comes Kh 8d 4h. Villain checks, I check.

Still with 3.9k in the pot, turn is another 4, and Villain checks again. I bet 2k, Villain raises to 5k, I call.

With 13.9k in the pot, river is a third 4, and Villain checks once more. Hero?

I’m struggling to find an interesting hand from the $215. This is the best I came up with. It may look like a straight-forward spot, but in my experience a lot of less experienced players will just call the flop (which, to be fair, is probably what I would have done too a few years ago):

PokerStars – 800/1600 Ante 200 NL (8 max) – Holdem – 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

SB: 24.59 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 15.56, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 45)
Hero (BB): 76.47 BB
UTG: 42.8 BB (VPIP: 21.13, PFR: 14.25, 3Bet Preflop: 6.29, Hands: 427)
UTG+1: 19.79 BB (VPIP: 19.32, PFR: 15.97, 3Bet Preflop: 5.83, Hands: 266)
MP: 59.01 BB (VPIP: 29.84, PFR: 17.74, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 124)
MP+1: 90.76 BB (VPIP: 20.97, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 124)
CO: 58.3 BB (VPIP: 31.22, PFR: 20.78, 3Bet Preflop: 10.58, Hands: 238)
BTN: 31 BB (VPIP: 19.48, PFR: 13.25, 3Bet Preflop: 7.22, Hands: 578)

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has Js Kc
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2 BB, fold, Hero calls 1 BB

Flop : (5.5 BB, 2 players) 5h Td Jc
Hero checks, BTN bets 2 BB, Hero raises to 6.75 BB, BTN raises to 28.6 BB, Hero raises to 50.45 BB, BTN calls 0.28 BB and is all-in

Turn : (63.25 BB, 2 players) As

River : (63.25 BB, 2 players) Ac

Hero shows Js Kc (Two Pair, Aces and Jacks)
(Pre 25%, Flop 69%, Turn 9%)

BTN shows Ad Kd (Three of a Kind, Aces)
(Pre 75%, Flop 31%, Turn 91%)

BTN wins 63.25 BB

I also max late registered the $530 Courchevel, which is a game I really enjoy, though I’m not sure I’m a favorite in a $530 field. With the late register, though, I got in with about 120 players remaining and 35 getting paid, so that’s how I justified it. For those who don’t know, Courchevel is a five-card PLO8 game where one of the flop cards is revealed before the pre-flop betting.

I didn’t last long at all – had QQ with a Q in the door, got all in pre against someone holding AA with a nut suit of the door card and some wrap potential. There’s no equity calculator for Courchevel so I’m not really sure whether I was favored there, but I doubt it was dramatic one way or the other.

Anyway, the big news is that I won the $44 Bounty Builder, which is a daily Progressive Knock-Out event on PokerStars. In the past, during COOPs, I used to fill screen space with Zoom games, and I still do that sometimes. But early in a session, I’ve started using smaller buy-in tournaments instead. I find it helps not to have to switch back and forth between tournament and cash mentality, and in many cases these tournaments may be better value anyway, the drawback being that sometimes it sucks when your session is extended by a few hours for a tournament you didn’t really want to play anyway. But it’s all good when you win it!

Even better, I recorded the last few hours live for Tournament Poker Edge. I started recording because I was in a bunch of events that were tough to cover in a replayer: some PKOs, the $55 Razz, and eventually the $530 Courchevel. So I thought it would be fun to record live. Then I just kept recording as I made the final table and eventually won the tournament!

I’m not going to post any hands from that just yet because you’ll have a chance to see lots of the important action on TPE soon enough.

PokerStars – 175/350 Ante 45 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (BB): 183.45 BB
UTG: 165.5 BB (VPIP: 23.81, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 42)
UTG+1: 129.36 BB (VPIP: 25.42, PFR: 19.64, 3Bet Preflop: 10.71, Hands: 60)
MP: 145.31 BB (VPIP: 18.34, PFR: 14.11, 3Bet Preflop: 8.91, Hands: 574)
MP+1: 158.17 BB (VPIP: 15.91, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 44)
MP+2: 142.54 BB (VPIP: 5.26, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 19)
CO: 115.69 BB (VPIP: 17.36, PFR: 10.95, 3Bet Preflop: 6.61, Hands: 481)
BTN: 131.73 BB (VPIP: 31.82, PFR: 15.91, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 44)
SB: 70.86 BB (VPIP: 31.25, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 48)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.66 BB) Hero has Kh Kc
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 12.35 BB, CO calls 9.35 BB

Flop : (26.35 BB, 2 players) Jd Qh 8d
Hero bets 13.17 BB, CO calls 13.17 BB

Turn : (52.7 BB, 2 players) Tc
Hero bets 26.35 BB, CO calls 26.35 BB

River : (105.39 BB, 2 players) Ks
Hero bets 131.45 BB and is all-in, CO calls 63.69 BB and is all-in

Hero shows Kh Kc (Three of a Kind, Kings)
(Pre 67%, Flop 55%, Turn 77%)

CO shows Ad 3d (Straight, Ace High)
(Pre 33%, Flop 45%, Turn 23%)

CO wins 232.77 BB

Villain was a world-class player, and I hated this spot from the flop.

My plan after the turn was actually to barrel off as a bluff, as I think I have way more AK in my range than Villain, and although KK could be good, it often won’t be and will be tough to showdown when it is.

Then I had to change course again on the river. In the moment I decided that I didn’t want to check-fold for a good deal less than a pot-sized bet, so I might as well shove for thin value. I remember thinking “just about the only Ace he can have is Ax of diamonds”. But in retrospect there are a good number of those, and Villain has some 9x as well which means he probably doesn’t need to call with hands I beat. So yeah, in retrospect I think I should have check-folded.

As for the $109, I ultimately busted in 54th. Here’s a Day 2 hand I’m pretty happy about:

PokerStars – 50000/100000 Ante 12500 NL (8 max) – Holdem – 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG+1: 33.51 BB (VPIP: 19.06, PFR: 12.85, 3Bet Preflop: 3.79, Hands: 322)
MP: 20.39 BB (VPIP: 9.18, PFR: 7.37, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 98)
CO: 30.9 BB (VPIP: 29.58, PFR: 26.47, 3Bet Preflop: 15.00, Hands: 72)
BTN: 23.72 BB (VPIP: 23.26, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 8.24, Hands: 219)
SB: 36.51 BB (VPIP: 16.39, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 7.41, Hands: 61)
Hero (BB): 14.88 BB
UTG: 14.22 BB (VPIP: 28.83, PFR: 14.81, 3Bet Preflop: 2.17, Hands: 112)

7 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.37 BB) Hero has 7d 4s
UTG raises to 2 BB, fold, MP calls 2 BB, CO calls 2 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 1 BB

Flop : (9.37 BB, 4 players) Tc 9h 6c
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP checks, CO checks

Turn : (9.37 BB, 4 players) Td
Hero bets 2.81 BB, fold, fold, fold

Hero wins 9.37 BB

Pretty nice to increase stack by about 2/3 with no hand and very little risk!

I also ended up running quite deep in the Big $109 again (I came 3rd last week) but ultimately busted in 18th.

Plus, Nate makes a return to the show! And a strategy discussion about flopping a straight on a monotone board!

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello and Welcome
3:50 – Strategy
16:31 – Jose Pachon
24:49 – Nate’s back!

Strategy

UTG + 1, MP, CO, button, and SB limp. Hero checks 5h 4d in the BB.

The flop comes 367ddd. SB checks, Hero bets $20, UTG + 1, CO, and SB all call.

The turn comes the 7s. SB bets $25. Hero raises to $60, UTG + 1 raises to $250. Action gets folded back around to SB who calls instantly. Hero?

Saturday started early. Usually I deal with that by late registering, but the 7AM event was a progressive knock-out, and although Stars allows late registration in those, it’s a financial disaster to do so. So I figured I would play that and then see how I felt for the afternoon event.

It got off to a rough start. A guy put in a crazy amount with 22 against my AK, which wasn’t the end of the world since I covered him, but his pair held up so instead of getting his bounty I got short-stacked. I managed to make a recovery though (it’s easy to get your money in good as a short stack in a bounty event, because everyone else has incentive to call you very light) and after this extremely fun hand I had more chips than anyone else in the tournament (also on Boom if you’d rather watch the replay):

PokerStars – 1250/2500 Ante 325 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP+2: 69.55 BB (VPIP: 19.40, PFR: 10.61, 3Bet Preflop: 2.86, Hands: 67)
CO: 88.92 BB (VPIP: 13.75, PFR: 7.50, 3Bet Preflop: 2.56, Hands: 81)
BTN: 17.37 BB (VPIP: 17.69, PFR: 4.65, 3Bet Preflop: 3.23, Hands: 131)
SB: 22.61 BB (VPIP: 26.74, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 16.28, Hands: 87)
Hero (BB): 166.42 BB
UTG: 85.05 BB (VPIP: 19.64, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 57)
UTG+1: 54.64 BB (VPIP: 17.95, PFR: 10.26, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 39)
MP: 51.98 BB (VPIP: 31.34, PFR: 19.08, 3Bet Preflop: 9.23, Hands: 136)
MP+1: 129.68 BB (VPIP: 17.61, PFR: 13.81, 3Bet Preflop: 10.48, Hands: 517)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.67 BB) Hero has 7c 9d
fold, fold, MP raises to 2.3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.3 BB

Flop : (6.27 BB, 2 players) Ts 9c Th
Hero checks, MP bets 2.32 BB, Hero raises to 5.59 BB, MP calls 3.27 BB

Turn : (17.46 BB, 2 players) 8h
Hero checks, MP bets 6.36 BB, Hero raises to 15.41 BB, MP calls 9.05 BB

River : (48.28 BB, 2 players) 4s
Hero checks, MP bets 28.55 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 28.55 BB

MP shows Js Kc (One Pair, Tens)
(Pre 65%, Flop 38%, Turn 23%)

Hero shows 7c 9d (Two Pair, Tens and Nines)
(Pre 35%, Flop 62%, Turn 77%)

Hero wins 105.38 BB

I’m not too pleased with the hand I busted on. I do think I should have gone broke given how the board ran out, but it would have been better to call the flop and get all in on this turn.

PokerStars – 6000/12000 Ante 1500 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

CO: 6.98 BB (VPIP: 22.16, PFR: 13.23, 3Bet Preflop: 9.18, Hands: 194)
Hero (BTN): 31.1 BB
SB: 75.19 BB (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
BB: 135.17 BB (VPIP: 18.84, PFR: 13.43, 3Bet Preflop: 3.85, Hands: 73)
UTG: 165.89 BB (VPIP: 31.67, PFR: 17.65, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 242)
UTG+1: 44.35 BB (VPIP: 19.67, PFR: 14.66, 3Bet Preflop: 10.24, Hands: 606)
MP: 25.96 BB (VPIP: 16.70, PFR: 11.94, 3Bet Preflop: 5.09, Hands: 504)
MP+1: 35.16 BB (VPIP: 21.00, PFR: 16.26, 3Bet Preflop: 10.31, Hands: 501)
MP+2: 37.86 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 9)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has Ac Js
fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 2.4 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 2.4 BB, fold, BB calls 1.4 BB

Flop : (8.82 BB, 3 players) Tc Jc 9d
BB checks, MP+1 checks, Hero bets 2.65 BB, BB raises to 6.58 BB, fold, Hero raises to 28.58 BB and is all-in, BB calls 21.99 BB

Turn : (65.98 BB, 2 players) 2d

River : (65.98 BB, 2 players) 2c

BB shows 9c Qc (Flush, Queen High)
(Pre 40%, Flop 62%, Turn 43%)

Hero shows Ac Js (Two Pair, Jacks and Twos)
(Pre 60%, Flop 38%, Turn 57%)

BB wins 65.98 BB

I didn’t do anything too interesting in the $215 rebuy, but here’s a hand I screwed up:

PokerStars – 300/600 Ante 75 NL (6 max) – Holdem – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP: 83.23 BB (VPIP: 33.46, PFR: 20.31, 3Bet Preflop: 6.56, Hands: 267)
CO: 51.64 BB (VPIP: 22.86, PFR: 22.86, 3Bet Preflop: 17.65, Hands: 35)
BTN: 49.94 BB (VPIP: 15.11, PFR: 8.73, 3Bet Preflop: 1.79, Hands: 140)
SB: 79.96 BB (VPIP: 20.26, PFR: 14.66, 3Bet Preflop: 6.86, Hands: 545)
Hero (BB): 96.56 BB
UTG: 37.1 BB (VPIP: 20.21, PFR: 12.43, 3Bet Preflop: 5.75, Hands: 189)

6 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.25 BB) Hero has 7s 8h
fold, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 0.5 BB, Hero raises to 3.7 BB, SB raises to 13 BB, Hero calls 9.3 BB

Flop : (26.75 BB, 2 players) 9d 4d Td
SB bets 12 BB, Hero calls 12 BB

Turn : (50.75 BB, 2 players) 6d
SB checks, Hero checks

River : (50.75 BB, 2 players) 7c
SB bets 15.73 BB, Hero calls 15.73 BB

SB shows Jc Jd (Flush, Jack High)
(Pre 82%, Flop 85%, Turn 100%)

Hero mucks 7s 8h (Straight, Ten High)
(Pre 18%, Flop 15%, Turn 0%)

SB wins 82.22 BB

I think I played the turn right, and maybe the flop? But pre-flop, I probably screwed up twice, and the river should probably be a fold. #TheyAlwaysHaveIt

Here’s an interesting one from the $215. I don’t love check-raising bottom two when this deep on a board like this one, because although you benefit a bit from protection you aren’t generally going to end up with a hand that you want to play for four bets. Case in point: by the time we see the river, I’m at the bottom of my range and ready to turn my hand into a bluff, mostly to get Villain off of a Q though perhaps also AA or AJ.

PokerStars – 150/300 Ante 40 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP: 168.05 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 13.33, Hands: 32)
MP+1: 148.96 BB (VPIP: 44.44, PFR: 14.81, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 27)
MP+2: 171.63 BB (VPIP: 21.18, PFR: 13.58, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 86)
CO: 175.34 BB (VPIP: 21.15, PFR: 14.49, 3Bet Preflop: 4.59, Hands: 491)
BTN: 157.53 BB (VPIP: 5.56, PFR: 2.78, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 36)
SB: 140.37 BB (VPIP: 45.85, PFR: 34.51, 3Bet Preflop: 11.24, Hands: 233)
Hero (BB): 114.67 BB
UTG: 201.03 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 14)
UTG+1: 170.1 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.7 BB) Hero has 8s Jh
fold, fold, fold, fold, MP+2 raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.5 BB

Flop : (6.7 BB, 2 players) Jd Kd 8h
Hero checks, MP+2 bets 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB

Turn : (12.7 BB, 2 players) Kh
Hero checks, MP+2 checks

River : (12.7 BB, 2 players) Qd
Hero bets 8.38 BB, fold

Hero wins 12.7 BB

This was a gross one from the $530:

PokerStars – 200/400 Ante 50 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG+1: 107.42 BB (VPIP: 19.17, PFR: 14.39, 3Bet Preflop: 7.03, Hands: 433)
MP: 92.68 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
MP+1: 171.23 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 48)
MP+2: 86.44 BB (VPIP: 18.00, PFR: 12.00, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 50)
Hero (CO): 193.65 BB
BTN: 119.7 BB (VPIP: 21.59, PFR: 13.64, 3Bet Preflop: 7.45, Hands: 227)
SB: 119.16 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
BB: 121.14 BB (VPIP: 26.85, PFR: 20.56, 3Bet Preflop: 6.10, Hands: 217)
UTG: 163.31 BB (VPIP: 31.25, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 48)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has Jh Js
fold, fold, fold, fold, MP+2 raises to 2.19 BB, Hero raises to 6.45 BB, BTN raises to 15 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 8.55 BB

Flop : (34.81 BB, 2 players) 4s 9d 8d
Hero checks, BTN bets 10.7 BB, Hero calls 10.7 BB

Turn : (56.21 BB, 2 players) Kd
Hero checks, BTN checks

River : (56.21 BB, 2 players) Jc
Hero bets 167.83 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 93.88 BB and is all-in

Hero shows Jh Js (Three of a Kind, Jacks)
(Pre 68%, Flop 53%, Turn 0%)

BTN shows Td Ad (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 32%, Flop 47%, Turn 100%)

BTN wins 243.97 BB

I can’t fault Villain’s play, it’s just a great spot for him to pressure me pre-flop. It’s possible I’m just supposed to raise again pre-flop; I certainly considered it, but the money behind seemed awkward. I haven’t run in CREV yet but I feel good about the river shove. I doubt Villain will have enough flushes and KK to be able to fold a lot of his AK/AA.

And in a throwback to one of my earliest poker strategy articles, here I am bluffing a calling station:

PokerStars – 200/400 Ante 50 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 108.05 BB (VPIP: 19.35, PFR: 14.52, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 429)
SB: 116.52 BB (VPIP: 36.36, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
BB: 175.63 BB (VPIP: 22.73, PFR: 6.82, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 44)
UTG: 89.82 BB (VPIP: 17.39, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 46)
Hero (UTG+1): 176.1 BB
MP: 115.08 BB (VPIP: 21.97, PFR: 13.89, 3Bet Preflop: 7.61, Hands: 223)
MP+1: 122.04 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
MP+2: 121.76 BB (VPIP: 27.36, PFR: 20.95, 3Bet Preflop: 6.17, Hands: 213)
CO: 149.74 BB (VPIP: 29.55, PFR: 13.64, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 44)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has 9c Tc
fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 1.78 BB, BB calls 1.28 BB

Flop : (7.96 BB, 3 players) 8s 2s Jd
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 5.26 BB, SB calls 5.26 BB, fold

Turn : (18.48 BB, 2 players) 6s
SB checks, Hero bets 9.24 BB, SB calls 9.24 BB

River : (36.96 BB, 2 players) 4s
SB checks, Hero bets 18.48 BB, fold

Hero wins 36.96 BB

Win the Button is a format I haven’t quite wrapped my head around yet. The most obvious adjustment is that you should try harder to win pots because there’s more of a reward for winning pots, but what’s less obvious is that you also care who win them from. That means the delta on defending your BB against the Button is much larger than defending against UTG, because if you fold to UTG you will be CO next hand, but if you fold to Button you will be BB again. I did some extra battling in late position for this reason, but here’s the hand I’m most proud of:

PokerStars – 175/350 Ante 45 NL – Holdem – 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

CO: 145.3 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
BTN: 367.52 BB (VPIP: 62.50, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
SB: 127.53 BB (VPIP: 17.39, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 9.52, Hands: 46)
BB: 155.34 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 60.00, 3Bet Preflop: 66.67, Hands: 5)
UTG: 7.57 BB (VPIP: 23.76, PFR: 19.52, 3Bet Preflop: 6.27, Hands: 1,005)
UTG+1: 131.33 BB (VPIP: 26.90, PFR: 16.07, 3Bet Preflop: 8.97, Hands: 343)
MP: 169.78 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
Hero (MP+1): 75.54 BB

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.53 BB) Hero has Ad Qh
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.79 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 2.29 BB, BB calls 1.79 BB

Flop : (9.39 BB, 3 players) 4d As 6d
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 2.82 BB, SB calls 2.82 BB, fold

Turn : (15.03 BB, 2 players) Th
SB checks, Hero bets 15.03 BB, SB calls 15.03 BB

River : (45.09 BB, 2 players) Td
SB checks, Hero bets 54.77 BB and is all-in, SB calls 54.77 BB

Hero shows Ad Qh (Two Pair, Aces and Tens)
(Pre 74%, Flop 86%, Turn 93%)

SB shows Ah 9d (Two Pair, Aces and Tens)
(Pre 26%, Flop 14%, Turn 7%)

Hero wins 154.63 BB

Needless to say, Villain should fold pre, and this is kind of an example of why. His A9o may have reasonable equity against my opening range, but it doesn’t realize that equity well, especially not against a player capable of recognizing spots like this.

There was also this value bet with Ace-Queen high on the river:

PokerStars – 1250/2500 Ante 325 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

CO: 29.62 BB (VPIP: 24.42, PFR: 17.80, 3Bet Preflop: 6.59, Hands: 394)
BTN: 88.21 BB (VPIP: 24.02, PFR: 9.04, 3Bet Preflop: 1.35, Hands: 179)
SB: 37.35 BB (VPIP: 24.30, PFR: 15.26, 3Bet Preflop: 3.77, Hands: 252)
BB: 28.47 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 12.73, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 56)
UTG: 73.5 BB (VPIP: 27.12, PFR: 19.01, 3Bet Preflop: 6.62, Hands: 713)
UTG+1: 17.34 BB (VPIP: 14.62, PFR: 7.77, 3Bet Preflop: 1.03, Hands: 212)
MP: 81.56 BB (VPIP: 24.51, PFR: 14.97, 3Bet Preflop: 6.00, Hands: 358)
MP+1: 94.43 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 15.16, 3Bet Preflop: 8.11, Hands: 345)
Hero (MP+2): 42.84 BB

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.67 BB) Hero has Qc Ad
fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, CO calls 2.28 BB, fold, fold, fold

Flop : (7.23 BB, 2 players) 3s 8c 7h
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn : (7.23 BB, 2 players) 6d
Hero checks, CO checks

River : (7.23 BB, 2 players) 8h
Hero bets 2.17 BB, CO calls 2.17 BB

Hero shows Qc Ad (One Pair, Eights)
(Pre 69%, Flop 81%, Turn 93%)

CO mucks Ah Jh (One Pair, Eights)
(Pre 31%, Flop 19%, Turn 7%)

Hero wins 11.57 BB

The hand I busted on felt bad, and in fact while CREV likes my flop check (it plays a mix but mostly checks ATdd), it has almost no raising range on the turn. Which makes sense: this isn’t a flop on which I should often check strong hands, so on blank turns I’ll generally be quite capped and should therefore play the role of the bluff-catcher. Of course that would enable me to fold on a river like this one:

PokerStars – 2500/5000 Ante 625 NL – Holdem – 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP+1: 33.71 BB (VPIP: 18.78, PFR: 13.74, 3Bet Preflop: 4.70, Hands: 773)
CO: 42.19 BB (VPIP: 19.51, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 41)
Hero (BTN): 21.18 BB
SB: 44.05 BB (VPIP: 23.38, PFR: 17.57, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 77)
BB: 55.1 BB (VPIP: 18.99, PFR: 14.11, 3Bet Preflop: 7.33, Hands: 339)
UTG: 24.1 BB (VPIP: 30.93, PFR: 7.45, 3Bet Preflop: 6.38, Hands: 97)
UTG+1: 24.17 BB (VPIP: 14.58, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 8.70, Hands: 48)
MP: 58.91 BB (VPIP: 20.45, PFR: 16.28, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 44)

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has Ad Td
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.28 BB, fold, BB calls 1.28 BB

Flop : (6.06 BB, 2 players) Th 3d Qh
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn : (6.06 BB, 2 players) 4c
BB bets 3.24 BB, Hero raises to 18.77 BB and is all-in, BB calls 15.53 BB

River : (43.61 BB, 2 players) Jh

BB shows 7c Qc (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 37%, Flop 74%, Turn 89%)

Hero shows Ad Td (One Pair, Tens)
(Pre 63%, Flop 26%, Turn 11%)

BB wins 43.61 BB

Nothing so interesting to report from the $215; I didn’t win it.

Links

Michael Johanson and Dustin Morrill discuss Nate and Andrew’s play against DeepStackAI on Episode 210
Michael Bowling introduces DeepStack AI on Episode 208
CPRG Solves Heads Up Limit Hold ‘Em (Episode 110)
Introducing the Computer Poker Research Group on Episode 78
DeepStackAI Article in Science
Andrew and Nate battle DeepStackAI on Twitch
More DeepStackAI matches on YouTube

Timestamps

$1/$2 NLHE with a $4 straddle. UTG1 limps, HJ limps, Hero raises $24 with AThh on Button, Villain calls in BB, rest fold.

Flop ($56 in pot) Ac 5h 2d. Check, Hero bets $30, Villain calls.

Turn ($116 in pot) Td. Check, Hero bets $65, Villain raises to $155.

River ($426 in pot) 8h. Villain checks. Hero?

Timestamps

0:30 – hello
8:29 – strat
46:20 – etay

Strategy

NLHE tournament, 2000/4000 with a 400 ante. I had the big stack at the table, at about 280k or so. The villain in this hand was second in chips with 235k. There were roughly 36 players left, with 32 getting paid.

Action folds to him in the hijack, he makes it 11,500, I have JJ, and make it 30k. All fold back to him, he calls quickly.

Pot is ~69k . He checks blind (he did this a lot). Flop comes 467r. I bet 45K, Villain calls.

Pot ~159k. He checks blind again (less common for him to do this on the turn). Turn is a 2. I check behind.

~159k. River is a 3. He thinks for a couple seconds and shoves for 161k.

Strategy

Hand 1

I’m in MP with 9c9d, a stack of $5.56 and raise to 15c, it folds around to the SB with a stack of $5.96 who 3bet to 35c. It folds back to me and I make an easy call.

** Dealing Flop ** [ 7s, 5s, 6h ] Pot: 0.75c.
Villain bets [ $0.36 USD ]
hero calls [ $0.36 USD ]

** Dealing Turn ** [ 2d ] Pot: $1.47
Villain bets [ $0.70 USD ]
hero calls [ $0.70 USD ]

** Dealing River ** [ Jh ] Pot: $2.87
Villain bets [ $1 USD ]

Hand 2

I had 77 utg and limped.  It limped around all the way to the button who just flatted.

Five players to the flop of k 7 4 rainbow.  I checked checked all the way to button who bet 12. I just called 12.  The cutoff also called.

The turn brings a 6 diamonds.  2 diamonds on the board.

I check.  Check on cutoff and the button bets 35.  I wait 30 seconds and then reraise to 100.

Cutoff hymns and haws and I put him in 75d and he calls after 1 minute or more.  The button calls instantly.

River brings j diamonds.  I check quickly and the c/o quickly moves all in for 210.

The button calls immediately for less – like 60.

Hand 3

1/2 game in Arizona. Hero has $350 effective, and is the big stack at the table. Both usual suspects limp, and hero checks his option from the BB with Ad 6s.

The flop comes all diamonds. T72. I bet $10, and one of the more laggy players three bets me to $25. The other one folds. I call.

Turn is the Jh. I check. Villain leads for $30. I call.

River comes JD, pairing the board but also giving me the nut flush. I lead for $25, Opponent clicks back pretty quickly, making it $50.

Plus, a big announcement from Nate, and Andrew discusses a big call down he made in the WSOP Main Event.

Timestamps

0:30 – hello & welcome
16:30 – strategy
50:30 – Benny Glaser

Strategy

Beginning of Level 2, 150/300. I open to 750 UTG2 with ATo (while noting that the very active Euro on my left is doing the fold hold). CO, BN, and BB call. CO and BN are among the weaker players at the table, BB seems quite good.

Flop T66cc, check to me, I bet 1200 into 3000ish, only BB calls (he called pretty quickly, though I put less stock in timing tells for better players).

Turn 4o. He checks, I bet 2200, he raises to 8000, and I take a long time calling.

River 3o. He bets 16K into 25K.

Timestamps

0:30 Hello and welcome
52:44 Strategy

Links

Gareth Chantler on Twitter
Gareth’s Stories From Syria
Hassan Hassan on Twitter
Iyad El-Baghdadi on Twitter
Samar Yazbek’s A Woman In the Crossfire
Mustafa Khalifa’s The Shell

Strategy

PokerStars – 500/1000 (6 max) – Holdem – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (UTG): 8.06 BB
MP: 3.26 BB (VPIP: 27.23, PFR: 15.57, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 213)
CO: 9.48 BB (VPIP: 29.03, PFR: 21.49, 3Bet Preflop: 13.73, Hands: 126)
BTN: 14.55 BB (VPIP: 24.02, PFR: 15.23, 3Bet Preflop: 11.22, Hands: 490)
SB: 24.19 BB (VPIP: 41.38, PFR: 31.25, 3Bet Preflop: 18.87, Hands: 146)
BB: 43.16 BB (VPIP: 34.92, PFR: 24.59, 3Bet Preflop: 26.92, Hands: 64)

SB posts SB 0.25 BB, BB posts BB 0.5 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 0.75 BB) Hero has Kh Td
Hero raises to 1 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 1.5 BB, BB calls 1 BB, Hero calls 0.5 BB

Flop : (4.5 BB, 3 players) Th 3s 6c
SB bets 0.5 BB, BB raises to 1 BB, Hero calls 1 BB, SB calls 0.5 BB

Turn : (7.5 BB, 3 players) Ts
SB checks, BB bets 1 BB, Hero ?

Fortunately, I managed to win the first few pots of the day, first with an open shove to take the blinds, then with an UTG raise which went uncontested, then calling a shove with AT in the BB to beat A9 from the SB for a full double.

After that, I was back in action. As I mentioned, I ended Day 1 with a major regret from the then-largest pot of the tournament, but I can honestly say that from Day 2 I can think of only very small things I wish I’d done differently. A few hands I’m proud of:

Bluff on the Bubble

We’re on the bubble, with 20 players remaining and 18 to be paid. Blinds are 1500/3000, and I raise to 6000 UTG with Tc 8c. The only player at the table to have me covered 3-bets to 12K (he said later this was a misclick and he meant to make it 17K, which I believe), and I call.

Flop (34K) Ks 9h 7h. I check, he bets 15K, I raise to 45K, he calls.

Turn (124K) 4h. I bet 45K, he calls.

River (214K) Qc. I shove about 120K, he folds AK and asks me to show. I oblige.

Better Bet Sizing Through Tells

Still on the bubble. Blinds 1500/3000. The player in the BB has only about 60K to start the hand. An active recreational player with a big stack raises to 7500 from the HJ. I have him covered and raise to 20K. A very tight player in the SB looks at his cards and instantly jams ~65K. I put him on KK at worst and am ready to fold, but then the original raiser calls, so I decide to see a flop.

Edit: I have 66!

Flop (~215K) 884r. Checks through.

Turn 4. Checks through.

River 6. Bingo. Original raiser checks, and I am trying to think about how much he might call just an Ace. In my head, I settle on a small number, 40K.

As I grab chips, he says “Dammit!” and kinda bangs the table. I know that sounds so blatant that it must be an act, but in the moment it really felt like genuine frustration at the fact that he knew I was about to put him in a tough spot. This suggested to me that he would actually consider calling a larger bet, so I bet 75K. After much agonizing, he called with an Ace. The all in player had AA, so I scooped a big one there.

Bluff Catching at the Final Table

Recent podcast guest Chase Bianchi was at the final table of 10 with me (and recent podcast guest Elena Stover finished 12th).

Blinds are 2500/5000. UTG1 limps, Chase limps in MP3, the SB folds, and I check my option with the mighty 42o.

Flop (22,500) Q54r. Checks to Chase, who bets 12,500. I raise to 30K, UTG1 folds, and Chase calls. Lots of good things can happen when I raise. Although I may well have the best hand (I don’t think Chase needs much at all to stab at this), it benefits a lot from protection. It’s even possible that I can push UTG1 off of a better pocket pair and get called when I’m ahead against Chase, if he has a draw or just a random float.

Turn (82,500) 5. I bet 45K. This is actually a pretty nice card for me. Even though it reduces the combos of sets and two-pair that I could have, I still have all of them in my range, whereas Chase has only an ever-dwindling number of 54, 44, and 55, some of which I block (suits are actually relevant here, as I imagine he might limp 54s but not 54o, but I don’t remember them). I don’t know how much Qx or 4x he’s limping, and the turn makes 5x less likely for him.

He calls. I now think his range consists of 76, Qx, pocket pairs, 54, 55, and 44 (at least some of which may check the flop). My plan is to check-call river if the straight draw misses, as I don’t think he has much incentive to jam a better pair for value.

River (172,500) 2. I check, he jams 98K, I call, and he shows 97s, which quite surprising to me. I don’t recall whether he had a backdoor flush draw on the flop, but he definitely did not have a flush draw on the turn, so I guess he just thought he was going to straight up own me. Whoops!

In addition to giving me a comfortable chip lead at the final table, this call had several good effects. It eliminated one of my toughest opponents, and it sufficiently awed most of the table such that they were not inclined to mess around with me.

The Rest

We got down to five-handed with me, a satellite qualifier, a guy named Steve who knew me from Tournament Poker Edge, a likely pro from Michigan, and a guy named Carlos Chadha – more on him in a moment.

The satellite qualifier was absolutely unwilling to put his chips in without a top 5% hand, pot odds be damned. He eventually even folded his SB, leaving himself with just three ante chips. Amazingly, he kept picking up AQ and winning with it to stay alive. Eventually, he busted in 5th place.

The kid from Michigan seemed good-natured at heart, so maybe he was just a bit tilted, because on this particular evening he was acting like a salty circuity grinder. He was the second shortest stack at the table, which meant he was handcuffed by the presence of the satellite qualifier who just wouldn’t die. He was getting frustrated at the guy’s abject refusal to put money in the pot and started just openly commenting on how bad some of his folds were. I was happy to see him go out in 4th.

As I mentioned, Steve knew me from Tournament Poker Edge. Carlos, as it turned out, knew me from Poker Savvy Plus, a pre-Black Friday training site I worked for for several years. He was old school and, now, a high roller. Literally, a super high roller. This $570 was the smallest live tournament he’d ever deigned to play. But he was in the area, and he’d never won a live tournament, and he really wanted to do so.

Much as I hate to admit it, I doubt I was the best player out of the three of us. Carlos had an aura of confidence and deep thought about him, and I never saw him miss a trick. Actually, that’s not quite true. He once called down with an unimproved K2 vs Steve, only to find that Steve was indeed bluffing… with a better King! But I mean, if the biggest “mistake” you’re making is correctly identifying a bluff and calling down with King-high….

A Hero Check

We passed chips back and forth for over three hours. Really the only interesting pot I was involved in began with me raising the button (sorry, I don’t recall the stakes – couldn’t keep notes well while playing short-handed) with Kd Qd. Carlos called in the SB, and Steve called in the BB.

Flop As Td 6c. Checks around.

Turn Jd. Bingo. Carlos checks, Steve bets 75K, I raise to 175K with about 325K behind, Carlos folds, and Steve calls.

River Tc. Certainly not what I wanted to see. I watched Steve like a hawk as the river card came down, and to his credit, he didn’t give anything away as it fell, nor as he checked. Not a lot of people can so casually react to such a significant card with so much on the line, and it was only for that reason that I even considered betting the river. I just couldn’t figure what he could call with, as I think he would have re-raised pre-flop with AK/AQ, A6 and J6 got counterfeited, and from the way he called the turn I didn’t really think he had a bare Ace. I checked and allowed my pride in finding that check to counteract my disappointment in seeing Steve roll AT for a full house.

The End

I eventually busted Steve when he jammed ATs on the button and I woke up with QQ in the SB. That left me heads up with Carlos with nearly even stacks, something like his 1.1M to my 1M. That was only 20 big blinds, so there wasn’t much room to play.

I was hoping I might at least be the more experienced heads up player, but apparently Carlos was an online heads up pro for a while. He certainly seemed to know what he was going on a 20BB stack, which to be honest that part of my game is not particularly tight. I haven’t put much thought into a button limping range, for instance.

It was over quickly, though. Just a few hands in, he limped the button for 50K, and I, now with an 18BB stack, raised to 175K with A7s. He jammed, I called, and he showed me TT. Although I turned a flush draw, I didn’t get there on the river, and Carlos won his first-ever live poker tournament!

Although A7s is a strong hand with just a single opponent and 18BBs, against a weaker player, I might not force the action pre-flop. Against Carlos, though, I didn’t feel like there was any room to pass on thin edges, so I went for the raise-call. Basically it was just a cooler, which in all likelihood was how the match was going to end one way or the other.

We finished play around 12:30, nearly 12 hours after we started, but there’s no rest for the weary. The $1500 Main Event starts today!

Johanson has previously been our guest on Episode 79 and Episode 110. Before the match, we discussed DeepStack with Michael Bowling on Episode 208.

Follow @DeepStackAI on Twitter for details of their upcoming Twitch matches as well as links to replays of past matches and other news.

Strategy

PokerStars – $150/$300 NL (2 max) – Holdem – 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (SB): 69.67 BB
Hero (BB): 63.67 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 6d 6c
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Qs Qd
Hero raises to 2 BB, Hero raises to 6 BB, Hero calls 4 BB

Flop : (12 BB, 2 players) 7s Th 5c
Hero bets 7 BB, Hero calls 7 BB

Turn : (26 BB, 2 players) 6s
Hero bets 14.17 BB, Hero raises to 50.67 BB, Hero calls 36.5 BB and is all-in

River : (127.33 BB, 2 players) 9h

Hero shows 6d 6c (Three of a Kind, Sixes)
(Pre 19%, Flop 13%, Turn 95%)

Hero shows Qs Qd (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 81%, Flop 87%, Turn 5%)

Hero wins 127.33 BB

Details of the 85o shove, as well as further thoughts on it and the match in general, are here.

I suspect, though, that even if we were to give the Hero a slightly stronger holding, such as QQ, many people would still be reluctant to shove. Why is this?

I believe the overriding cause to be classic loss aversion: at some level; most human brains are more concerned about not-losing than they are about winning. Even when we can expect to win at a favorable, very profitable frequency, our guts may very well tell us to be careful.

Does that sound like you? Did you find the article helpful? Please let me know in the comments!

And don’t miss Carlos Welch’s great piece on How to Develop and Use Reads!

Links

Tournament Poker Edge

NYC Live Event with Just Hands Poker

Timestamps

0:30 hello
12:36 strat

Hand 1

$2/$5 NLHE, 9-handed, $500 effective stacks.

UTG1 limps, Villain limps HJ, Hero raises to $25 with Ac Qs, SB and both limpers call.

Flop ($105 in the pot) Qc 7c 3c. Checks to HJ, HJ bets $30, Hero calls, other two fold.

Turn ($165) 8h. Villain bets $40, Hero raises to $120, Villain calls.

River ($405) 8d. Villain bets $175, Hero?

Hand 2

$1/3 NLHE, nine-handed, $400 effect stacks.

Villain limps UTG, another player limps, Hero raises to $15 with Ah Ad in the BB. UTG calls, other player folds.

Flop (~$30) 6d 5d 3d. Hero checks, Villain bets $25, Hero raises to $80, Villain calls.

Turn (~$190) Jc. Hero checks. Villain shoves $289, Hero?

Links

Tournament Poker Edge

NYC Live Event with Just Hands Poker

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome
6:50 – Strategy: Top-Top in a Straddled Pot
40:38 – Interview: Ronnie Bardah

Strategy

$2/$5 NLHE, $500 effective stacks.

UTG straddles for $15, UTG2 raises to $45, Hero calls Ad Kc on the button, both blinds call, and the straddle folds.

Flop ($179) As 4c 4s. Villain bets $80, Hero calls, blinds fold.

Turn ($339) 8c. Villain bets $150, Hero calls.

River ($639) 8s. Villain shoves $130, Hero calls.

Playing $2/$5 NL. Effective stack $600. Villain is a woman in her mid-20s, has a pro-ey vibe to her. I don’t know that we’ve played together before but I see her around Maryland Live a lot. Don’t remember ever seeing her in bigger games even when they were going at MDL. She always has full buyin+ in front of her, often on phone, chummy with dealers, etc. I haven’t been at table long, don’t know what if anything she thinks of me.

She opens to $20 in HJ, I make it $65 with AA in the CO, folds back to her and she calls without much thought (took less than 10 seconds to consider action, including time while other players folded).

Flop ($130 in pot) Qc 9d 9h. She checks, I bet $65, she calls.

Turn ($260) Kd. She checks, I bet $125, she calls.

River ($510) Ks. She checks. $345 remain in effective stacks.

Y’all prefer checking or shoving?

PS: Apologies to Villain, if she sees this. I’m doing this from memory several days after the fact, so there’s a fair chance I’m messing up some moderately important detail such as a suit and a small chance I’m messing up a really significant detail (it’s happened before).

The first half of my conversation with Matt is available here.

Timestamps

0:30 = hello
23:05 = strat

Strategy

$2/$5 Hero ($700) opens to $20 UTG with AKo. Four callers, both blinds fold.

Flop ($105) AQ9r. Hero bets $55, Villain raises to $175, rest fold, Hero?

Time for Some Game Theory

It’s probably impossible to find a game theoretically optimal betting strategy for me on the flop, and likewise a calling strategy for Villain, as there are more than two players in the game. The river, however, is a different situation.

It’s quite likely that I’m playing a capped range after checking the turn (which may be sufficient reason not to check). If – and this won’t necessarily be the case, we’ll return to that question – Villain arrives at the river with a mix of nut hands (that beat everything in my range), air (that lose to everything in my range), and hands in between, then this is basically just the AKQ game from Mathematics of Poker, and Villain should probably bet all of his nut hands and all of his bluffs for a size that makes me indifferent between calling and folding with my bluff-catchers.

I hedge a little bit there because even in a straightforward scenario like the one I define above actual poker is a bit more complicated than the AKQ game. Blockers, for instance, can make the actual solutions more complex. Still, this is about as good an approximation as you’ll find for the AKQ game in an actual poker hand.

Hand Reading

The biggest caveat is that Villain may not get to the river a lot of air. As several commenters point out, there are good reasons why he might prefer to bet hands without showdown value on the flop rather than check and call with them.

However, that’s not enough to decide that he’s weighted towards value here, for at least two reasons:

1. Many of his strongest value hands might prefer to bet or check-raise the flop as well. Frankly, the flop check-call probably eliminates many of the hands that would otherwise be most likely to overbet the river, whether for value or as a bluff, including busted draws, sets, and even strong top pair hands. It’s a weird, uncommon line, which often means it’s likely to be unbalanced. However, if we can’t deduce or predict the imbalance, then game theory still provides a way to avoid playing into his hands.
2. One option for “finding bluffs” on the river is to turn a hand with a small amount of showdown value into a bluff. If Villain played a hand like AXhh or bottom pair this way on the flop, he may well conclude that bluffing the river would be higher EV than checking, even though his showdown value was part of the reason he played the flop the way he did.

Why Call?

If I’m roughly indifferent between calling and folding at equilibrium, why should I ever call with a bluff-catcher? It’s an understandable question, but as I argue in my recent article To Catch a Bluff:

Remember that an opponent bluffing at a game theoretically optimal frequency is, well, theoretical. It’s the assumption that we make in the absence of any better estimate of her bluffing strategy. If it turns out that she has a particularly poor strategy, bluffing with hands that are really too strong to turn into bluffs, then your bluff-catchers that break-even against an optimal bluffing strategy will actually make money. So, calling with those hands is a freeroll, as long as you don’t call with so many of them that you end up incentivizing your opponent to stop bluffing entirely.

There remains the question of whether my particular hand is a “pure” bluff-catcher or a better-than-average bluff-catcher. With only a vague idea of what Villain’s exact bluff or value hands might be, it’s hard to say with certainty which blockers could make my hand better-than-average. I’m inclined to think that having a heart would be bad and that blocking a set of 8s, top two pair, and a turned straight is good, but depending on the composition of his range for arriving at the river, these effects may be small or non-existent.

They Always Have It

My favorite response to this post came in a tweet that, sadly, I’m not unable to find. I mentioned posting a WYP about facing an overbet on the river, and someone responded to the effect of, “I didn’t read the post, but I fold.” This is reminiscent of a hashtag I’m fond of using, sometimes with tongue in cheek: #TheyAlwaysHaveIt.

There are lots of reasons why the average player bluffs at a lower-than-optimal frequency in many situations. One is just a simple fear of losing. Human brains tend to be loss-averse, which means that they tend to over-emphasize the consequences of losing a bluff. Mathematically, if a bluff of 150% of the pot will cause 70% of an opponent’s better hands to fold and will never be bluff-raised, then it will show a profit. However, if some part of your brain cares more about the money you lose when the bluff is called than the money you win when the bluff succeeds, then it may convince you that the bluff isn’t worth attempting.

On top of that, it can be hard to find bluff candidates. It’s usually obvious when you have a hand strong enough to value bet, but it’s not always clear which hands are best for bluffing. That’s especially true in a case like this one, where, as I argued above, bluffing at an optimal frequency may require the Villain to bet hands with some showdown value.

Results

#TheyAlwaysHaveIt logic becomes less applicable the more sophisticated your opponent is. I didn’t have much experience with this opponent, but he seemed more than competent, and I didn’t want to pursue an excessively exploitive strategy against him.

My logic went something like this:

1. The base rate for bluffing in this situation is probably too little rather than too much, so applying Bayes’ Theorem should lead me to fold pure bluff-catchers.
2. This opponent seems better than most, and the above logic is exploitable, so I don’t want to deviate too drastically from a balanced calling strategy.
3. My hand may be better than a pure bluff-catcher because of the blocker effect.
4. I call.

Villain had Ah Jh, which makes perfect sense and, to my chagrin, was not a hand I considered. The call kind of feels like a mistake in retrospect, but that may just be results oriented thinking. Thanks for your input, everyone!

If you didn’t donate during the campaign, please enjoy the video and then donate whatever you feel it was worth to you. Thanks!

Edit: Courtesy of Carlos Welch, here are links to the TV footage of the hands we discuss:

Hand 1
https://youtu.be/Cbwe7cP2jQI?t=2393

Hand 2
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2qhk6Xuq0k

Also please note that there’s a typo in the video for Hand 2. The flop was actually 844 with two diamonds.

When you three-bet, you’re gearing up to play a big pot, so you ought to come strapped. That doesn’t have to mean Aces, but it should mean a hand with a reasonable chance of winning the pot if you go to the flop. In most cases, the stronger your hand, the higher the Expected Value (EV) of your three-bet will be.

It does not follow from this that you should therefore three-bet a strictly linear range, starting from Aces and working your way down. The complication is that many hands that will have a high EV when they three-bet will also have a high EV when they call. Your job is to decide, when you have a reasonably good hand, whether it will play better as a three-bet or a call in this particular situation.

How do you decide when to three-bet? Was this article helpful to you?

Chase sticks around for a special strategy segment featuring a 10/25 NLHE hand in which Andrew was also involved!

You can follow @Chase_Bianchi on Twitter and rail him on Twitch!

Andrew would appreciate, and is offering prizes for, donations to the Bay Area Urban Debate League.

Timestamps

0:30 – hello
13:36 – chase

Strategy

Utg opens 75, main opponent calls HJ, AlphaNit calls BU, we call 65cc in sb, BB calls.
5 way flop($375) 8d 6h 4c checks to villain he bets 175, AlphaNit calls, we call, 2 folds.
3 way turn($900) 7d. We check, villain bets 350, AlphaNit fold, we call.
HU river 7x. We check, villain bets 475 with 1500 behind. Hero?

Eileen is the author of The Total Poker Manual. You can follow her on Twitter @PokerForGirls and read the articles she’s written for Red Chip Poker.

In our strategy segment, our correspondent asks about how to play a big draw facing some weird bets.

Nate’s new project is Gonfalon Bubble. Andrew would appreciate, and is offering prizes for, donations to the Bay Area Urban Debate League. Use our Amazon Affiliate links to support the podcast while you do your holiday shopping.

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome
14:56 – Strategy
48:27 – Interview: Eileen Sutton

Strategy

Edit: Replaced with the correct hand history!

WSOP Senior’s circuit event in Cherokee, NC. The blinds are 800/1,600 with a 400 ante. I have approximately 42K in chips and villain covers. There are 9 players at the table.

Villain in 3rd position limps. I am directly to his left with KsQs and raise to 3,500. BB calls.

Pot is now 14,900 and I have 38,100 remaining.

Flop is Jc 8h 4s. BB checks and villain bets 3,000. I call.

Pot is now 20,900 and I have $35,100 remaining. Turn is 9s making the board Jc 8h 4s 3s. Villain again leads for 3,000. I call.

We go to the river with $26,900 pot and my stack at $32,100. The river is a blank and he checks.

You can follow Jamie on Twitter at @jamiekerstetter, and on Twitch at http://www.twitch.tv/jamiekerstetter. Watch her videos on Tournament Poker Edge!

Nate’s new project is Gonfalon Bubble. Andrew would appreciate, and is offering prizes for, donations to the Bay Area Urban Debate League. Use our Amazon Affiliate links to support the podcast while you do your holiday shopping.

Timestamps

0:30 – hellowelcome
10:41 – strat
31:28 – jamie

Strategy

$.05/$.10 NLHE Zoom on PokerStars

Hero ($7) opens $0.25 holding Ks Qd on the HJ, Button ($9) calls, BB(covers) calls.

Flop KcTc3s, Pot $0.76
Hero bets $0.40, Button raises to 0.80, BB calls, Hero calls.

Turn is a 7d, Pot is 3.06 (I have 6.24 behind, Bu have 8.80)
Hero bets $1.80, Button calls, BB folds

River Th, Pot 6.49 (I have 4.44 behind, Bu covers me)

I folded, and I don’t think it’s close. The short explanation is #TheyAlwaysHaveIt. Here’s a longer one:

Is This a Bluff-Catcher?

The first question to ask is whether Villain could be raising worse for value. If yes, he’s either making a huge mistake, or you should not fold. Here, I think it’s unlikely that worse raises for value. The only lower flushes possible are 52dd and 42dd, which are unlikely in a raised pot, and in any event would be awfully ambitious raises (the “huge mistake” exception.

Some comments mention straights or overpairs raising. I really don’t see that happening. The mistake here, I imagine, comes from thinking of betting or raising primarily in terms of protection, which is in fact a very secondary consideration here. You can’t “protect” a hand that may well be behind already – the cost/risk of putting in a raise drawing dead far outweighs any protection benefit.

Now you might argue that a recreational player may not think in those terms, but most tend to err on the side of being too passive, especially when it comes to large bets. Not to mention that a player excessively concerned about protecting his hand would probably raise the flop, not the turn.

It’s also worth noting that a player overvaluing weaker hands may also overvalue slightly stronger hands such as Q- or J-high flushes, which is of course bad news for us.

In short, Hero has a bluff-catcher. To decide how to play such a hand, we can start by thinking exploitively about whether this is a spot where Villain is likely to over- or underbluff.

Is Villain Bluffing Enough?

This is quite a difficult spot for Villain to bluff, because (a) he’s raising into a player who is uncapped; and (b) in order to bluff, he needs to get to the turn with a hand that has minimal showdown value and that doesn’t mind re-opening the betting.

That last caveat is important, because, as many comments point out, a bare Ad is a hand without showdown value that sees the turn. If the raise were a shove, enabling Villain to realize the equity of his draw, I would consider that plausible. However, most players will, probably correctly, not raise the Ad here for fear of facing a shove. Again, I think that if he were inclined to raise this kind of hand, he’d be more likely to do it on the flop.

Hero does have blockers to higher flushes, making this perhaps a slightly-better-than-neutral-EV bluff catch against an optimal bluffing strategy. However, there are many reasons to think Villain is in fact underbluffing this spot quite severely.

I was glad to see that nobody really took the bait concerning the straight flush redraw. It, too, could make the hand a slightly-better-than-neutral bluff catcher, but it’s not nearly enough to overcome the situational factors here.

Results

I folded, as did the second player, but the Villain showed Ad Kd anyway. Frankly, I think even this is optimistic on his part (after all, I folded a lower flush). If he’s ahead, he probably has us drawing slim to dead anyway, and he blocks the hand most likely to pay him off (a K-high flush). In his shoes, I would call and probably call the river, though I can actually imagine scenarios where I fold his hand.

In my own shoes, I would not have bet my 9d8d on the river had Villain just called turn, and there’s a good chance I would have folded it to a bet. It really is not that high up in my range, as I can have lots of better flushes as well as most full houses.

Playing $5/$10 No-Limit at Maryland Live, a game that does not participate in the Bad Beat Jackpot and other promotions. I don’t have a lot of experience with either Villain, but there’s a good chance they know who I am (a lot of people at MDL, many of whom I’ve never spoken to, have turned out to be familiar with the podcast, blog, or Twitter account). At the very least, I expect they perceive me as a smart player who won’t take anything off of the table in terms of bluffs, hero calls, thin value, etc.

UTG1 is a pro who plays mostly 5/10, don’t think I’ve ever seen him at 10/25. MP is a recreational player about whom I don’t know much.

I’m going to skip straight to the major decision in the hand, because I don’t think the others are terribly interesting, but feel free to ask in the comments if other actions surprise you.

Hero ($2000) opens to $35 UTG with 9d 8d. UTG1 ($3500) calls. Two players fold, and then MP ($1800) calls. Everyone else folds.

Flop ($120 in pot) 7d 6d 3d. Hero bets $80, both call.

Turn ($360 in pot) 3c. Hero bets $220, UTG1 folds, MP raises to $625, Hero?

Post your thoughts here. I’ll do my best to respond throughout the week, and will post my own thoughts as well as results on Friday.

In the meantime, here’s my latest strategy article for 2+2 Magazine, entitled “Why So Much?“:

[T]here are many situations where very large (or small, for that matter) bets don’t have to mean anything in particular. They can easily be made with a balanced range, in a way that does not cost the bettor anything with any individual hand in that range relative to a different bet size he could also employ. Learning to distinguish between situations where large bets can be balanced and situations where they can not is the key to determining whether your opponent is revealing anything with any particular bet.

Please check it out and let me know what you think!

Timestamps

0:30 – hello and welcome
19:22 – donk bets with justin

Strategy

Hero (covers) raises to 12 UTG with AcKc
folds to button ($230) calls
BB ($300) calls.

Flop ($33 after rake): 5x7c8c

BB: leads for $20, Hero calls, Button Folds.

Turn (~$70 after rake): Kh

BB leads for $35, Hero calls.

River: (~$145) 2d

BB leads for $75, Hero?

Timestamps

0:30 Hello & Welcome
18:29 Strategy
41:25 William Kassouf

Strategy

$2/$5 No-Limit Hold ‘Em

HJ ($2000) opens to $20. Hero ($1200) raises to $40 with Kd Kh. Button ($2000) calls, as does the small blind ($1500).

Flop ($160): 5d 6c 7h. SB checks, HJ checks, Hero bets $60, only SB calls.

Turn ($280): 3d. SB bets $150. Hero calls.

River ($580) 4d. SB bets $425. Hero?

0:30 – hello
11:06 – strategy

Strategy

Blinds 300/600/75. Hero opens to 1500 UTG+1 with AA. Folds around to the villain, who flats on the button. Blinds fold. Pot is about 4500 with antes.

The Flop: KJT rainbow. Hero bets 1500, Villain raises to 4500, Hero calls.

The Turn: Pot is now 13500 and the turn is the rainbow 2. Hero checks, Villain bets 7500 with 17K behind, Hero?

I wanted to share a hand with you from the third event that I played, which was a $700 Progressive Knock-Out. I tried looking at my biggest losses, but they were all-in pre-flop with KK and AK, so nothing too exciting there. Then I switched the column so that biggest wins would be at the top and momentarily confused myself because my biggest win was -80, a pot where I anted and folded. It turns out I didn’t win a single pot the entire tournament! In my defense, I did register quite late and walk into the aforementioned coolers.

Anyway, here’s one from the $200 Rebuy. It’s a good illustration of a common misunderstanding about slowplaying, that it’s somehow about “protecting your range” or some other tepid-sounding cliche that makes it sound like you’re sacrificing present value in the interest of some nebulous future gain.

In fact, playing certain strong hands in a way that’s consistent with how you’ll play weaker hands gives your opponent incentive both to bluff and to value bet thinly. If he acts on that incentive at an appropriate frequency, then you should do about as well as if you’d played your hand faster. And if he decides to go overboard, well…

PokerStars – $200+$15|700/1400 Ante 175 NL – Holdem – 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BB: 20.7 BB (VPIP: 15.76, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 5.54, Hands: 761)
UTG: 98.11 BB (VPIP: 29.25, PFR: 20.57, 3Bet Preflop: 7.50, Hands: 215)
UTG+1: 66.5 BB (VPIP: 20.77, PFR: 16.97, 3Bet Preflop: 7.63, Hands: 574)
MP: 11.13 BB (VPIP: 28.53, PFR: 19.05, 3Bet Preflop: 13.86, Hands: 340)
MP+1: 8.74 BB (VPIP: 26.67, PFR: 22.89, 3Bet Preflop: 8.82, Hands: 90)
CO: 44.64 BB (VPIP: 23.81, PFR: 17.21, 3Bet Preflop: 9.62, Hands: 126)
BTN: 60.7 BB (VPIP: 19.35, PFR: 14.58, 3Bet Preflop: 8.63, Hands: 622)
Hero (SB): 19.4 BB

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has Ks Kh
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 0.5 BB, BB raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop : (7 BB, 2 players) 7d 2h Kd
Hero checks, BB bets 2.89 BB, Hero calls 2.89 BB

Turn : (12.77 BB, 2 players) 6c
Hero checks, BB bets 5 BB, Hero calls 5 BB

River : (22.77 BB, 2 players) Ah
Hero checks, BB bets 9.69 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 8.39 BB and is all-in

BB shows Js 4h (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 12%, Flop 0%, Turn 0%)

Hero shows Ks Kh (Three of a Kind, Kings)
(Pre 88%, Flop 100%, Turn 100%)

Hero wins 39.55 BB

A lot of people worry about slowplaying in a spot like this because of the flush draw on the flop, but when ranges are sufficiently wide, that’s just not that big of a concern. It’s not like you have to fold a set in a low SPR spot just because a flush gets there, and plenty of times your opponent will be drawing stone dead and even a third diamond comes that might just give him more inducement to bluff.

Timestamps

0:30 Hello & Welcome
10:42 NLO8 Strategy

Hand 1

PokerStars – $300+$20|400/800 Ante 100 NL Hi/Lo (6 max) – Omaha Hi/Lo – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

SB: 24.38 BB
BB: 41.66 BB
UTG: 35.74 BB
MP: 48 BB
Hero (CO): 23.1 BB
BTN: 30.23 BB

6 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.25 BB) Hero has 4c Kc As Ts
fold, MP raises to 2.19 BB, Hero calls 2.19 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 1.19 BB

Flop : (7.81 BB, 3 players) 3c 8h 6c
BB bets 3.9 BB, MP calls 3.9 BB, fold

Turn : (15.61 BB, 2 players) Jh
BB checks, MP bets 9 BB, BB calls 9 BB

River : (33.61 BB, 2 players) 4h
BB checks, MP bets 32.79 BB and is all-in, BB calls 26.45 BB and is all-in

MP shows Js Kh Ah 2s (High: Flush, Ace High, Low: 6432A)
(Pre 60%, Flop 36%, Turn 69%)

BB shows 2h 3s Ad 7c (High: One Pair, Threes, Low: 6432A)
(Pre 40%, Flop 64%, Turn 31%)

BB wins 21.63 BB
MP wins 64.88 BB

Hand 2

PokerStars – $300+$20|400/800 Ante 100 NL Hi/Lo (6 max) – Omaha Hi/Lo – 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG: 25 BB
CO: 42.04 BB
BTN: 32.37 BB
SB: 34 BB
Hero (BB): 37.72 BB

5 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.13 BB) Hero has 4s 6c Tc 3s
fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 2.38 BB, Hero calls 1.38 BB

Flop : (5.38 BB, 2 players) Ts 7c 6s
SB bets 3.25 BB, Hero calls 3.25 BB

Turn : (11.88 BB, 2 players) 9s
SB checks, Hero bets 3.56 BB, SB raises to 8.13 BB, Hero calls 4.56 BB

River : (28.13 BB, 2 players) 9h
SB bets 20.12 BB and is all-in, fold

SB wins 28.13 BB

DP1: A6o is a tough hand to play, even when only a single opponent with a random hand remains. Raising denies the BB some equity and reduces the likelihood that you’ll have to play out of position after the flop, but it also sets you up to get blown out by a 3-bet or to play out of position against a stronger range in a raised pot. With antes in the pot, I think you have too much value to fold, but both calling and raising are reasonable options.

DP2: QJo is generally a good enough hand to raise for value into a small blind limp, especially because most people will raise the hands that dominate you and call some dominated hands. I’m not sure why I didn’t raise at the time, and I probably should have.

DP3: A few commenters seem to suggest that Villain can just bet the flop with any two cards because Hero will often “miss”, and against weaker opponents that may be true. However, better players are aware of the relative difficulty of making a pair and will defend appropriately to a flop bet, including by calling with strong unpaired hands and by bluff-raising. That’s not to say that Villain should never bluff, but he should expect only his better bluffing candidates to be profitable. Turning a hand with this much showdown value into a bluff is a mistake, as it is surely a profitable check and call.

You might object that since I called with worse, we can think of Villain’s bet as a value bet. However, overall he will not be ahead of my calling range, and many of my worse hands (though probably not this one) will often bluff him out on future streets anyway.

DP4: This is a clear call. Villain could easily be bluffing, and I ought to beat all of his bluffs plus have reasonable equity even against many of his value bets. Things get a bit dicier if he’s betting his Aces, but even then I suspect that I have enough equity to call.

As for raising, many of the same arguments apply as with Villain’s limp: the hand has too much value to turn into a bluff, at the moment anyway. On runouts that improve my weaker flop calls, I may end up bluffing with this, as it would then be the bottom of my range.

DP5: Villain’s flop bet, along with this turn card, killed any showdown value his hand had, so now it is a bluffing candidate along with the rest of the air he ought to have bet on the flop. However, Villain ought to have other bluffs with better equity available to him and probably ought to give up on this one.

Essentially, he’s got an Ed Miller pyramid problem here. His flop betting range was too wide, and now on the turn he’s going to hold too many weak hands and will have to get rid of them somehow. He can either keep bluffing, which will make my bluff-catches very profitable, of he can just check and fold, which with this hand at least is the better option.

DP6: An easy call. Villain may not be value betting worse, but even so, I have a very solid bluff-catcher. The hand is too strong to raise as a bluff and not strong enough to raise for value.

DP7: Another pyramid problem. Once again, if Villain is getting to the river with too much air and bluffing with all of it, then my bluff catches will be very profitable. This is certainly a board that favors his range, but that doesn’t mean that he’s guaranteed a profitable bluff when he doesn’t have any blockers to my calling range.

DP8: This is a clear call, though not a super-profitable one (unless Villain is bluffing too much, which this one, in retrospect, seems to have been), as I block JT and KQ or other turned two-pairs. Many players won’t go for a third street of value with top pair, at least not for this size, but even against those who do, I expect this to be a profitable call.

PokerWilo asked about my plan for future streets. While it will depend heavily on the runout, I think there’s an underlying assumption to address here, which is that I need to be able to call future barrels. This would be true if we had reason to believe that Villain would always or usually barrel off after betting the flop, and in retrospect it seems like this one might.

However, that’s not information that I had at the time. All I knew is that Villain might keep betting, and he might not. That means that, no matter the turn card, I need to have some bluff-catchers that fold to further bets and some that do not. That way, I punish (or at least do not reward) both players who give up too often and those who barrel too often. On many turn cards, QJ will be in my folding range, but on this one, it’s in my calling range. In a vacuum, there’s nothing wrong with having a range of hands that will call once and fold to further action – in fact, it’s correct.

Thanks for playing, everyone!

Timestamps

Intro 0:30
Strategy 4:17
Interview 33:27

Strategy

1/1/2 NLHE effective stacks $300

Here raises to $6 in the CO with 7h8h, Button calls, makes it $22 from the big blind. Hero calls and the button folds.

Flop ($49) 10c 8c 6c. Villain bets $20, Hero raises to $85, Villain calls

Turn ($219) 2d. Villain checks, Hero checks.

River 8d. Villain checks, Hero?

Billy’s latest adventure is stand-up comedy. You can check out his work on Facebook and Instagram.

Timestamps

0:30 -hello
3:20 -2NL flopped FD
27:17 -billy

Strategy

2NL 6 max on ACR. Effective stacks $2.60.

I am UTG with KcJc and open $0.06. Villain calls on Button.

Flop comes 8c 2c 5. I bet $0.06 into $0.15. Villain raises to $0.22. I re-raise to $0.82, which leaves the villain to call $0.60 for a pot of $1.79. This raise also leaves me a pot sized bet behind.

Turn is 5c, making the board 8c2c5s 5c. I check and the villain checks behind.

River Ks, making the board 8c2c5s 5c Ks. Hero?

Interestingly, though, Qs Ts is a pure bet for 75% of the pot on the river, so I was off there (it strictly folds to a raise). GTORB shows Villain folding T7 98% of the time on the turn, which probably means it’s strictly a fold and the results just didn’t quite converge, rather than that Villain is truly indifferent between calling and folding.

DP1: Uncontroversial.

DP2: Uncontroversial at this stack depth. With deeper stacks, this is a reasonable BB vs BN 3-betting candidate, but with 100BB a 3-bet will just isolate the stronger part of Villain’s range without the opportunity to put pressure on him with draws.

DP3: I don’t see a case for a leading range. This is a really static board, which means protection isn’t much of a concern, and that’s even more true if Villain is going to c-bet too often. Hero probably has more equity on this flop, especially if Villain’s pre-flop range is too wide, but when the pot gets really large, Villain will have a slight range advantage. So, I’m really not looking to force big pots from out of position. I just rarely mind this flop checking through, so I don’t have incentive to develop a leading range.

DP4: Villain’s bet size is large for such a static board. That’s not a big deal in and of itself, but it becomes a problem if he’s also c-betting at a high frequency. For instance, this particular hand probably isn’t a +EV bet if the bet is going to be this large, as he’ll too often be drawing dead against my calling range.

DP5: I don’t think this is close. It’s similar to the question of whether to donk the flop: I don’t have many hands that want to build the pot here. Even with like A8 I can’t really check-raise for value. If I’m going to turn the hand into a bluff, there will be opportunities to do that later. Also, if I check-raise and then turn a flush, I’m not sure that I get to play it like the nuts. Finally, I have showdown value against a too-frequent c-better!

DP6: This seems to be the spot that surprised the most people. At this point I have a really significant equity advantage, especially against someone who c-bets too often. Most of my flop check-call range is going to be flush draws, trips, and pairs. All of those can value/protection bet this turn for a small size and most won’t fold to a bet. The few unpaired hands in my range love having the opportunity to bluff, and even for small sizing, it’s not that easy for Villain to peel here with, say, an underpair to the board. We should not expect him to bluff this card often. Sometimes he’ll value bet worse on the turn and then check back river, which isn’t great for us, and if he bets twice, Hero’s hand is just a bluff-catcher, albeit a profitable one. Forcing him to fold or put money into the pot on this turn card is good for Hero.

As for sizing, my range is quite strong, so as I said, even at this size underpairs or hands like the one he has have a tough decision. Bare flush draws aren’t going to be a big part of his range, and even when they are, it’s not trivial to peel with them, as he’s rarely drawing to nine clean outs.

DP7: I think this is the sort of hand that should be close to indifferent against my bet. The problem is that he’s drawing slim or dead against my value range and my bluffing range has outs. Betting larger would only help make his decisions easy with hands like this.

DP8: This is a tough card to value bet, given how strong my range is and the fact that I block second-best flush draws. There’s more of a case for betting Qs 8s, though even then check-calling could be best. Better to let my blockers work for me, by playing my hand as a bluff-catcher, rather than against me, by playing it as a thin value bet.

Dp9: This may be the result of an Ed Miller pyramid error. In other words, if Villain peels too wide on the turn, then he simply has too many weak hands in his range on the river. Yes, this is the bottom of his range and he’ll rarely win by checking, but if his bottom is too wide, then trying to bluff with all of it will make my bluff-catches very profitable.

DP10: Trivial.

Thanks for playing!

You can visit Chris Moorman’s website and follow him on Twitter.

Timestamps

0:30 hello & strategy
22:44 chris moorman

Strategy

2/5 table at the rio. I’m in the sb with AsQc. UTG limps for 5, UTG +1 raises to 15. Folds around to a pretty tight player on the button who makes it $45. I call, the limper calls, and UTG +1 calls.

Flop ($180): Ah9s8h

I bet $135. The UTG limper folds and the UTG +1 ships it all in pretty quickly so it’s $455 total – $320 more. Button folds….

Timestamps

0:30 – hello & welcome
8:38 – strategy
26:37 – aaron brown interview

Strategy

This hand is from a $365 wsop circuit event. Re-entry. Level 2 blinds are 50/100. Starting stack was 10k and I have almost exactly that amount. Villian in the hand seems to be a competent player/circuit
grinder type probably early 30s.

Preflop: I get 9c9s in MP i open for 250, 1 call behind me, V calls on the button, and sb and bb both call.

Flop (1250): 8c3d2c.

sb and bb both check to me and I bet 1000. 1 guy folds behind me, and V makes it 2300, sb and bb fold so it’s back to me. I ended up putting in a reraise to 5300 and he snap shoved.

Timestamps

The other fun thing about my starting table was that Ian Simpson was there. If you don’t know Ian, you will soon. We’ve already recorded an interview with him and will publish it perhaps as early as this coming Monday, if it doesn’t get pre-empted by WSOP content (will depend on how much time we find to record in the next few days).

Nate and I had high hopes of getting dinner with Ian and Ryan Hall, but it turned out that the break was only 30 minutes, which caused Ryan to drop out, and Ian had already busted and left, so it was just Nate and me. And in fact, if Nate hadn’t busted shortly before dinner break and volunteered to get a table and place an order in advance, we wouldn’t even have managed that. I really don’t understand the point of a 30 minute dinner break.

Overall I think I played perhaps the best tournament poker I have yet in this event. I got moved away from my awesome starting table and spent the rest of the day tangling (or trying not to tangle) with some tough young Europeans. Unfortunately I just kept losing pre-flop all ins after chipping up.

There was one other hand I was proud of. At 400/800/100, I opened to 2000 with Jc 9c in the CO, and the BB, one of aforementioned Europeans, re-raised to 6000. There are some people who will be quite strong when they three-bet from the big blind, preferring to call most hands that they might use as “light” three-bets, and although I did expect this player to be polarized, I would expect him to have a more good/balanced three-betting strategy even from the big blind. So, I called with about 31K behind.

The flop came Qc 9hs 8c, and he bet 6K. I think a lot of people will just jam here because they know they have a lot of equity and they aren’t comfortable playing future streets. With a slightly weaker hand, say Kc Tc, I think shoving is correct – you’d rather get all in on the flop, ideally with some fold equity, than call and get forced off your equity on a blank turn.

However, I think my hand is strong enough to get all in no matter the turn card, and I don’t think Villain will fold many hands with substantial equity. It’s important to consider all of your options rather than just defaulting to a shove any time you have enough equity to get all in, and here I think there’s more value in calling than shoving.

The turn was a Q, and we both checked. The river was the 3s, we both checked again, and he showed Aces to win the pot. To be clear, although this was a nice side benefit of just calling the flop, avoiding a stack off to overpairs on a few specific runouts is really not the main reason to call the flop. I’m going to be stacking off on most turns, this was just the rare card that neither of us particularly wanted to bet, and that happened to work to my advantage.

I had a weirder spot with the most obviously recreational player at the table, an older woman who was quite friendly and whom I’m sure I’ve seen around before and perhaps even played with. She opened from middle position to 1700 (BB was still 800), and I called with 52s in my BB.

The flop came 877r, and we both checked.

The turn was a 2, I bet 3000, and she called.

The river was a 3, and I was a bit unsure how to proceed. I expected to have the best hand quite often, as I think she’d bet pairs on the flop almost always. Was she really going to call me down twice with Ace-high though? On this board, it seemed plausible. I’ve actually coached a few people who are roughly in her demographic and quite aware of their image and accustomed to people who look like me firing spewy bluffs at people who look like them. So, I bet 6000, and she called with K7s for trips, which it actually surprised me a bit that she would have that based on her pre-flop position (not that she couldn’t have other 7x) and doesn’t really tell me anything one way or the other about the river bet.

A few orbits later, with the BB at 1000, she opened my big blind again, to 2200. This time, I held 22. I decided to jam for my last 18K, based on the fact that she’d showed down the K7s and also A6o from a similar position. I also thought that she might fold a bit too much, perhaps something as strong as AJo. Frankly, though, this is probably a little spewy, and if we’re being honest, I caught a whiff of strength when she looked at her cards.

Sure enough, she called with 88 to bust me. The only consolation was that even if I had called with the 22, I would have flopped a set and lost to a turned 8, so in this case the mistake didn’t actually cost me anything, but it was a mistake nonetheless.

Nate and I are going to play the Team Event at the WSOP today, which should be fun.

Still, I got into two spots that are interesting not because of the magnitude of the decision – in both cases, it was quite small – but because of the frequency with which they occur, as well as the fact that in a shallow tournament, even small decisions have a big influence on your ROI.

Both occurred at the 50/100 level. In the first, I opened to 250 with Qs Qc on the button, and the big blind called.

The flop came AT4, all spades (meaning I had a flush draw), and we both checked.

The turn was the 9c, and we checked again.

He quickly checked a third time, on a Td river, and at the time it seemed so likely that my hand was good that I threw out a small value bet, about a quarter of the pot. He called with A6o to beat me.

In retrospect, I’m not so sure this was a good bet. Maybe it’s a bit results oriented knowing that A6o in his range, but I don’t think that’s really so surprising (it would be in mine). The Villain is going to have so many Ax combinations in his range that even if he doesn’t check a pair of Aces at a high frequency, it still could add up to enough combos that I can’t put in a value bet on the river. There are, of course, a limited number of worse hands that will call a bet, mostly 9x, pocket pairs, and maybe 4x or K-high.

In the second hand, I was down to about 2300 and had 7s 4s in the big blind. The hijack opened to 250, and the CO, who was the only truly good player among my opponents, called. With 550 in the pot, I had the option to call 100 more to see a flop. Although I would certainly call in a heads up pot, I elected to fold here, a decision that I later discussed with fellow Tournament Poker Edge pro Chris Moon.

My argument was that there aren’t many flops I can feel that good about in a multi-way pot. It will be rare that I can commit with just a 4 or a 7, and even when I flop a draw, I can’t expect that much fold equity against two players.

Chris suggested an interesting way of approaching that: assume you have no fold equity and will always either fold or get all in on the flop, at your option. Put them both on ranges, and run a simulation on ProPokerTools.

After the flop, you’ll commit 2200 chips for a final pot of 5050, meaning you’ll need 43% to get it in. Pre-flop, you’re getting 5.5:1, meaning that you need to get a “good enough” flop about 15% of the time. Of course these are simplifications: sometimes you will win without a showdown, sometimes you’ll see a turn, sometimes you’ll cause one player to fold substantial equity.

Even under these constraints, I found it to be close. For some reason I’m having trouble uploading the image, but here’s a link, which includes the ranges I gave both players (given my stack size, I think the CO can cold call some big hands, though maybe not quite as many as I gave.

It seems to me that given how rarely I’ll end up all in against two players, I probably should have called and just taken my equity on the 15% or so of flops that are “good enough” for me. Live and learn.

Today is the $1500 bounty, which I hope will be a fun and more interesting event!

Blinds were still 25/50, and I opened to 150 with Kc Qc in the HJ. The CO, SB, and BB all called.

The flop came 975 with two clubs, and the blinds checked. I certainly wouldn’t just c-bet arbitrarily into three opponents here, but with two overs and a flush draw, it’s an easy bet. I bet 450, and only the CO called.

The 2h turned, and on such a blank card, I think he’s more or less capped out at one pair, maybe TT or JJ at best and almost always weaker than that, so it’s a great spot for me to bombs away. I bet 1500, and he quickly called. The fact that he didn’t even consider raising made me even more certain that the didn’t have two-pair or a set.

So, I didn’t have to sweat a full house on the 9c river. I also didn’t think he’d call the turn with bare flush draws, at least not so quickly, so the only better hands in his range figured to bet Ac 8c and Ac 6c. I expected him to have T9 and 98 more frequently, and be unable to fold trips. I bet 4000, and he called with Ac 8c.

Nothing of great interest happened after that. I got a double up with AQ by convincing my opponent to spaz with 77 on a Q9xxx board.

Once I was down to 20 blinds, I wasn’t getting any shoving spots. Mostly my cards were bad, but also there was a guy with a big stack on my right who’d decided that he should play more than half the hands he was dealt. I’m honestly not sure he was joking/posturing when he wondered out loud whether he should call my 11BB UTG shove blind (I had AJo, and he folded).

A few hands later he opened to 1100 on the button, which it was really hard for me to imagine him folding a button, so I had a pretty easy shove for 5K or so with 22 in the SB. He called with A4o to bust me.

After the tournament I went and hung out with Carlos for a bit at the Tournament Poker Edge booth, then decided to check out the cash game scene at the Rio.

It truly does seem to get worse there every year. Now there are no chip runners (which, I realize, may not be their fault, but it sucks either way), which means that when they open a new game it takes a long time to start because people have to go wait in line at the cage, buy chips, then take them to the table, and of course no one wants to sit at the table waiting for others to show up, and certainly not come over from an already-running game to get the new one started, so it’s just a slow process and I can only imagine that the most impulsive (ie most desirable to have at your table) players are not sticking around for all that.

My first table was pretty boring, everyone seemed decent enough and the average stack was less than $2K, which is quite small for an uncapped $5/$10.

I was about to quit when my table change came through and I landed at a new table where my $6500 made me just the third largest stack! Had there been chip runners, I would have added on, but as it was I decided just to make do with 650 big blinds.

It was a fun game, nobody spewing but nobody playing particularly good deep-stacked poker, and I was winning solidly. Then, literally the hand before I was going to quit:

I open 22 to $40 UTG (believe we were 7-handed at the time), and four people call. The flop comes K72r. I bet $150, and only the button called. I had about $7500 at the time, and she covered me.

The turn was another K. I checked, figuring a check-raise could get more money in against a K and also give her a chance to bluff/protection bet weaker hands. She checked behind.

The river card was something small (not a 2!), and with $500 in the pot, I threw out a $1K chip. Overbetting was not unprecedented for me, and none of those hands had yet gone to showdown.

She asked if that was a $500 chip, the dealer told her it was $1000, and then she nodded and said, “All in.” Faced with calling $6K to win $8500, I really don’t think is a tough fold at all. I’m uncapped, which means I have both nut hands and better bluff-catchers, not that I would expect to see many bluffs here anyway.

Even though that basically wiped out my profit for the night, I quit feeling pretty good about myself. Among other things, I probably would have lost my ass if she’d bet the turn!

For some crazy reason the Monster Stack is not a re-entry, so I’m just going to play cash tonight, probably at Bellagio, and then hit up the $1K Turbo WSOP event tomorrow morning.

This episode is sponsored by Shark Clock and Tournament Poker Edge.

Timestamps

0:30 – hello
6:11 – strategy
50:40 – alex sutherland

Strategy

This week’s strategy discussion uses GTO Range Builder to investigate the hand first discussed in Episode 176.

Books mentioned during the show include Stranger in a Strange Land by Robert Heinlein and Labyrinths by Jorge Luis Borges.

This episode is sponsored by Shark Clock and Tournament Poker Edge.

Timestamps

0:30 – hello & welcome
12:26 – strategy
38:22 – lukasz grabowski

Strategy

Hero – Ac5c in hijack, 9k stack, blinds at 75/150.
Villain – BB, covers hero

Preflop: fold to hero, hero raises to 400, Villain calls

Flop: Qs 7s 3x (875)
Villain check, Hero bets 500, Villain calls

Turn: 5h (1,875)
check, check

River: Qx (1,875)
Villain bets 2000

Timestamps

0:30 hello and welcome
5:45 strategy
46:24 christian

Strategy

$5/10 at Bellagio

Pre-flop:
UTG+1 raised to $15 (sic). I was hijack $800 stack holding AcQs. I called. Cutoff $2500 stack called. Button $1500 stack called. Small blind folded. Big blind $7000 stack called.

4 callers $75 pot

Flop:
AsKsQx
Checked to me, I bet $50. Villain called. Big blind called. Original raiser folded.

$225 pot

Turn: 7x
big blind checked, I bet $150, villain called and big blind folded.

$525 pot

River Tx:
I checked. Villain shoved.

Timestamps

0:30 hello and welcome
11:30 strategy

Strategy

Hand 1

2/5 game at the Aria. I have a stack of about 1400. Villain covers.

Villain raises from UTG+1 to 20, gets two callers. I have pocket aces in the BB. I raise to 85. Villain calls, callers fold.

Pot is now about $205. Flop 345 rainbow. Both players check.

Turn 2. I check, Villain bets $150, I call.

Pot is $505. River Q. I check, Villain bets $330.

Hand 2

$2/$5 live game. Villain has $500, Hero coves. Hero raises to $25 with AQss. Tilted guy re raises to $100. Hero calls.

Flop is Q74 two diamonds.  There is $200 in the pot and he leads out for a pot sized $200 bet. Hero calls.

Turn is 7h. Villain shoves $200, Hero calls.

Contrary to the fancy image seen here, The Thinking Poker Diaries Volume 8 is actually available only as an e-book. It’s on sale now in the Kindle Store, and EPUB, Kindle, and PDF versions will be available on Nitcast.com shortly.

Timestamps

0:30 – hello & welcome
10:59 – strat
32:05 – andrew moreno

Strategy

MP limps, the button makes it $5, and I raise to $16.5. MP calls and the button folds.

Flop is A79 with the 7 and 9 of spades. I bet $22 and he calls. The pot is $82, and he has $80 behind.

The turn is a blank (low non-spade) and I shove.

If you haven’t yet read Volume One, well, there’s no reason you’d have to to make sense of this book, but why haven’t you?!

You can follow Benjamin on Twitter @Reasons14 and watch his instructional videos at Tournament Poker Edge. He recommends reading Sapiens and The Four Hour Work Week and listening to Sigur Rós, Denali, Portishead, Red Hot Chili Peppers, and Radiohead.

Timestamps

0:30 – hello and welcome
4:33 – PLO8 strategy
28:12 – benjamin reason

Strategy

Three-handed $10/$25/$50 PLO8.

Villain raises from the SB to $175 announcing that he “almost never does this”. I pause, question him, and he states that he raised blind. I don’t know him well enough to know if this is always the truth.

I raise to 550 with A2QQshhd. Button folds and villain makes it 1650.

I called and the flop was K85 rainbow. He quickly bets the pot of $3350 leaving $7000 effective behind.

Collin is also the author or co-author of three poker books (Heads-Up No-Limit Hold ‘Em, Sit-and-Go Strategy, and The Math of Hold ‘Em) as well as co-author, with his wife Katie Dozier, of The Superuser. He produces instructional videos for CardRunners. You can follow him on Twitter @teammoshman.

We’ve also got a special treat for you in the strategy segment. Brian Koppelman, whom we interviewed on Episode 149, is back to talk strategy, specifically how to play against a deep-stacked maniac.

Enjoy!

Timestamps

0:30 H&W
23:58 – BK
39:22 – CM

I’ll start by saying that although there are some interesting concepts at play here, this specific spot is not really an important one to get right. For one thing, it’s not exactly an everyday occurrence. Perhaps more importantly, everyone seems to be in agreement that Villain is unlikely to put another dollar in the pot no matter what Hero does, so we can expect the Expected Values of all available options to be quite similar.

Value Betting

There’s some game theory here related to whether Villain has any incentive to call the river with a bluff-catcher, whether Hero should be able to value bet an unimproved bluff catcher, whether Villain should ever check quads, etc. But there’s an important exploitive concept at play as well, which James Antill raises quite succiently: “Villain can’t make a calling mistake if we don’t bet.”

In theory there shouldn’t be much value in betting. Villain took a very polarizing line, and any showdown value he had would have been better played as a bluff-catcher than as such a big bluff. So really, he should either have a boat or better, or a hand that couldn’t even consider calling.

Of course, there also shouldn’t be much risk in betting. I’m embarrassed to say the very important question of whether I blocked 64s did not occur to me at the table. I don’t know for certain that the river was the 4d – I made up the suit for this post, wrongly thinking it unimportant. Of course, I did consider that Villain had no real reason to check a big boat or quads on the river. After all, we’re seriously considering not betting a hand that would almost certainly call a shove! Checking could induce a bluff, but what hand that benefits from bluffing could Hero take to the river?

Patrick raises the very good point that, “As played, it’s kind of a weird SPR by the river that makes getting stacks in hard to do without either an over bet or a raise, which…I’m not sure, but I would say it leans away from V having a stack able value hand like 33.” However, even seemingly good opponents make mistakes, and we want to give them the opportunity to do so. Both checking quads and calling the river without a 6 are probably mistakes, but the latter is a much easier mistake to make.

I don’t agree with James Antill that, “If villain takes this line with worse and is going to hero call it then he’s as likely to do it with 1.5x as 0.25x pot.” Our best hope is to offer Villain such good pot odds that he can’t resist calling (or spazzes out and shoves) with a hand that he wasn’t originally thinking of as a bluff-catcher. He certainly ought to be price-sensitive, given how easily Hero can have a 6 and how difficult it is to find a bluffing candidate.

Bluff Shoving

I also didn’t consider the option of shoving to get Villain off of a chop. I don’t think it’s the best way to play the hand, but it is worth considering, to kudos to those of you who thought of it.

Sean is right that if Villain is equally likely to check any given combo of 6x or 44, and he always folds the 6x, then shoving would be best. However, I think it’s far from certain that Villain will fold a 6 to a shove, even if that would be the correct play.

Checking

The one argument in favor checking that hasn’t yet been made is that we get to see Villain’s likely bluff. It’s very rare that I factor the value of seeing the Villain’s cards into my decision, and I can’t claim that I did so in real time either, but it did prove a bit interesting. And in this case, where there’s so little value in betting anyway, the small value of seeing Villain’s cards might actually outweigh it.

Results

I checked back, and Villain showed As 9s. This certainly raises the question of whether he might have called a $400 bet, but is interesting for other reasons as well. For instance, I don’t think it’s the best candidate for either donking or three-betting the flop. In fact, it probably has enough showdown value to check and call a bet.

We’re playing 10/25 NLHE with effective stacks of about $8K. The main Villain, in the SB, is a capable and experienced player, not 100% sure whether he’s a pro but he’s good enough that I think he could be. I imagine that he has a similar opinion of me. The BB is definitely a pro and strong player.

I’m going to go ahead and skip to the river decision, because I’ve already explained my plan for a three-bet.

Hero opens to $75 with Kd 6d on the button. SB and BB both call.

Flop ($220 in pot) 6h 6c 3s. SB bets $100, BB folds, Hero raises to $300, SB raises to $875, Hero calls.

Turn ($1970 in pot) 3d. SB bets $1050, Hero calls.

River ($4070 in pot) 4s. SB checks, there’s about $6000 in the effective stacks, Hero?

Post your preferred play, along with your reasons, here. I’ll respond as I can in the comments and post the next decision point on Saturday.

Assessing Range Advantage

The only information I gave about the SB was that he’s “capable and experienced” and probably has “a similar opinion of me”. This really isn’t enough to make aggressively exploitive assumptions about what his bet “means” (if he’s doing a good job of balancing, it doesn’t mean any single thing) or how he’ll respond to a 3-bet.

Let’s start instead by examining some structural features of the situation, at the time that we see the flop, before there’s any action. I have to agree with Matt that, “I really don’t see him having a wide calling range from the SB. Playing out of position against tough opponents is not very easy, of course, and calling invites a third (also competent) player into the hand, which leads me to believe that he will be heavy on 3betting and folding from this spot.”

This isn’t an exploitive assumption; he’s out of position and closing the action, so he really is constrained. He can’t just decide to call with a bunch of weak hands because that’s his “style”. If he doesn’t have a disproportionate amount of realizable equity, which will usually be the case, his best play is to fold pre-flop. Many of the hands that do have that kind of equity do better by raising pre-flop. If we act too strongly on these assumptions, then we give him incentive to call more weak or strong hands, but still, we should recognize that he’s dealing with some heavy pre-flop constraints.

Likewise, we can recognize that my range can and should be rather wide, again not as a question of style but because with the button and very deep stacks, there are simply a lot of hands where raising is more profitable than folding. And the BB can have a much wider range than the SB, given that he is closing the action and getting a better price.

I suspect that if we were to compare the overall equity of the SB’s range vs. mine, he would be ahead. Even though I have some very strong hands that’s unlikely to call pre-flop, such as AA or K6s, I also hold a lot of weak hands that he’s unlikely to call pre-flop, such as 74s.

On Donking and Raising

This constrains me a bit: I can’t expect to continuation bet profitably with anywhere near 100% of my range, particularly given that there is also a third player in the pot. So, I will check the flop a significantly non-zero amount of the time, and the SB has many hands like pocket pairs and Ax that are likely best but very vulnerable to free cards. These hands have some interest in donking the flop in order to deny me equity.

However, because his range is, not exactly capped, but weaker at the top end than mine, he’s vulnerable to getting raised by a polarized range. So, his donking range should contain some hands that can profitably continue to a raise, either by calling or three-betting (sometimes for value, sometimes as a bluff).

K6 fares well against those ranges. It figures to be ahead of his calling range (and even ahead of his range for calling down multiple streets), and although it may turn into a bluff catcher if Villain three-bets, it will be a very good bluff-catcher in that it blocks some portion of his value range and has equity against it as well. We may not be rooting for a three-bet, but we shouldn’t be lost about what to do when three-bet, either. I think calling down will yield a profit, even if it’s not the part of the game tree where we’d ideally end up. When we’re holding a 6, though, Villain only has two choices: three-bet rarely, or three-bet a bluff-heavy range. Considering that we’re prepared to call to the river, either is fine.

It’s true that the majority of my continuing range will not benefit from raising, and I’ll respond to his bet far more often by calling than by raising. It’s also true that because my calling range will consist mostly of hands that do not want to play large pots, SB will have some incentive to make large, possibly over-, bets on subsequent streets with a polarized range. This gives me some incentive to just call the flop with very strong hands, which in turn reduces his incentive to employ such a strategy.

These situations usually resolve themselves in a mixed strategy: I should call some hands that are prepared to take a lot of heat, and also raise some such hands. MCG and PokerNoob both do a good job of explaining why K6 is a better candidate for raising than calling.

The Bottom Line

K6 is an extremely strong hand here, so close to the top of Hero’s range that it can happily put in four bets for value and profitably, if begrudgingly, call down five bets as a bluff-catcher. Calling makes it tricky to get that fourth bet in. Sometimes Villain will just check-call down, and we’ll get only three bets (though overbetting might be able to compensate for this). Even if he does bet the turn, as Raffi says, “flatting and potentially raising at a later point makes it really hard to rep a bluff.”

It’s also worth pointing out that, unless Hero’s hand improves, it will not be quite as strong on future streets. Each new card that comes, unless it’s a K or a 6, pushes our hand, as well as our value targets, further from the nuts.

Essentially, this is a hand that benefits from frontloading, and I think raising with it is generally best. You may not be accustomed to thinking about your kicker when you have trips, but when you’re this deep, it matters.

Results and the next decision point are coming in the next post.

Strategy

No Limit Hold’em $0.10/$0.20
Winamax Poker
3 players
Formatted by pokercopilot.com – Mac OS X hand history analysis and tracking

Stacks:
BTN – BTN ($20.72)
SB – Hero ($34.73)
BB – BB ($7.80)

Preflop: ($0.30, 3 players) Hero is SB with Q A
BTN raises to $0.40, Hero raises to $1.60, 1 fold, BTN calls $1.20

Flop: J 8 5 ($3.40, 2 players – BTN: $19.12, Hero: $33.13)
Hero bets $1.80, BTN calls $1.80

Turn: T ($7.00, 2 players – BTN: $17.32, Hero: $31.33)
Hero bets $3.80, BTN calls $3.80

River: 9 ($14.60, 2 players – BTN: $13.52, Hero: $27.53)
Hero bets $4.00, BTN calls $4.00

Total Pot: $22.60
BTN shows A T (One pair : Tens)
Hero shows Q A (Straight Queen high)

Hero wins $21.13

“Poker lingo is full of bluster and bravado. For some, the colorful language and the opportunity to spin dramatic narratives about aggression and courage is an important part of the game’s appeal….

I also suspect, though, that all these macho turns-of-phrase and bellicose metaphors obscure the mathematical side of the game. It often seems to me that players who worry about “defending” their big blind, or getting “bullied”, are more concerned about damage to their ego than to their expected value.”

Of course it’s not just about language; there’s plenty of strategy content as well! Please have a look and let me know what you think. Do you enjoy turning your poker game into a story of bravery and bravado? Do you find these kinds of metaphors particularly helpful or unhelpful?

You can follow Cate @catehall on Twitter, and she recommends the Center for Applied Rationality to “your audience in particular”.

In the strategy segment, Nate and Andrew talk about semi-bluffing, getting there, and folding.

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello and Welcome
18:06 – Strategy
52:23 – Cate Hall

Strategy

$5/$10 full ring NLHE at Commerce, $1700 effective stacks.

Hero opens $35 with 4c 3c in the CO, and the SB and BB call.

Flop ($100) As Ac 5s. Check, check, Hero bets $80, SB calls, BB folds.

Turn ($260) 2h. Check, Hero bets $175, SB raises to $600, Hero calls.

River ($1460) Villain shoves ~$985, Hero?

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello and Welcome plus WRGPT strat
21:35 – Carlos

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello and Welcome
11:40 – Strategy
39:47 – J. Gills

Strategy

8-handed 5/10/20

UTG ($2000) limps, middle position ($500) limps, I have KTo on Button and cover both. I raise to $100, both limpers call, everyone else folds.

Flop T83r ($330 in pot). Check, short stack bets $110 with ~$400 behind, I raise to $220, UTG cold calls, short stack shoves, Hero calls.

Turn 9hh. ~$1600 in pot, ~$1400 stacks, UTG checks, Hero?

I primarily review his play at the final three tables of a $10 rebuy tournament, all the way down to heads up. If you need help making or triumphing at a final table – and who doesn’t?! – be sure to take advantage of this FREE video. Or better yet, see how you can have me review one of your hand histories!

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome
7:47 – Strategy:
21:28 – Interview: Gags30

Strategy

$1/$3 NLHE

UTG limps, Hero ($600) raises to $16 with KsJs, V1 ($300) calls, V2 ($500) calls on the button, everyone else folds.

Flop ($51 in pot) Jd 3h 3c. Hero bets $20, V1 calls, V2 raises to $50, Hero calls, V1 calls.

Turn ($200 in pot) 6s. Hero checks, V1 checks, V2 bets $90, Hero?

In the meantime, please enjoy the next PLO8 strategy video from Nate and myself:

Timestamps

0:30 – hello
33:24 – interview

Strategy

$5/$5/$10 PLO $1500 effective stacks

Button opens $40, Hero calls Ah Kd 9c 4h in SB, BB calls, straddle calls.

Flop ($160) Ad Qh 4d. Three checks, button bets $120, Hero calls, two folds.

Turn ($400) 6h. Hero checks, Villain bets $340, Hero calls.

River ($1080) Qc. Hero checks, Villain bets $480, Hero?

Please contribute here!

Thanks to everyone who’s donated already, you’ve far exceeded what I thought we were likely to raise. As a result, it’s been tough to keep pace with releasing all the free strategy videos I promised. Thankfully Nate came through in a pinch and gave me permission to use some videos we’d previously recorded. So here’s the first of a three-part series in which we have fun reviewing my play in a PLO8 WCOOP event. Enjoy, and happy new year!

// ]]>

Timestamps

:30 – hello & welcome
4:22 – strategy
33:56 – dannyn13

Strategy

Horseshoe Southern Indiana, 1/2NL, 8-handed, $270 effective stacks vs villain, hero has AdKs in MP1
-UTG+2 limps with $600 behind
-hero raises AdKs to $10 in MP1 with $260 behind
-MP2 calls with $180 behind
-villain calls in bb with $300 behind

-$41 in the middle and we see a flop of Kc4h5h
-villain in bb checks, UTG+2 checks, hero bets $30, MP2 folds, villain check/raises to $75, MP1 folds, hero calls

-ignoring rake, there is $191 in the middle and the turn is the 4s
-villain checks and hero checks

-the river is (the beautiful) Kd, villain checks, hero?

The book is available from the Amazon Kindle Store or in EPUB, Kindle, and PDF formats at Nitcast.com.

Blinds are 50/100, Villain has about 20K (starting stack), and I have about 25K. Only six players (including both blinds) have claimed their seats so far. I have black Aces first to act and open to 300.

Villain calls from the SB, and everyone else folds.

Flop (700 in pot) Jc 8c 6h. Villain checks.

Turn (700 in pot) 6d. Villain bets 400. Hero?

River (1500 in pot) 2s. Villain bets 600.

I was a bit surprised by the comments, in that there seemed to be a consensus that a raise for value would be thin/risky and should be small. This surprises me in no small part because a lot of people seemed to be in favor of raising and then betting safe rivers on the previous street. This river is as good as it could be, so I don’t see what’s changed to reduce confidence in Hero’s hand. If anything, Villain’s bet size should only embolden us. In game, I thought it was extremely likely that he had a Jack, and the only question was how much he’d be willing to call.

The best argument I can see for making only a very small raise is that it’s hard for Hero to have bluffs after taking this line. If Villain is really going to fold a Jack to a pot-sized raise, though, that gives Hero plenty of incentive to take hands that were checked for showdown value on the flop, such as nut clubs or 99, and turn them into bluffs. In spots like this, where your previous actions have taken most if not all air out of your range, turning the bottom of your range into a bluff should be “standard”.

That still may not produce a lot of bluff combos, but Hero isn’t going to have a lot of value combos, either. Even Jacks is not a great candidate for a big river raise, as it blocks so many of your value targets.

The other concern was that raising opens Hero up to a raise which, if balanced properly, would reduce his EV to 0. There’s a lot to say about this.

First and most importantly, it isn’t going to happen. Exploitively, it just isn’t a play that’s in the described Villain’s arsenal. I want to emphasize this, because I think it’s very common for people to miss value on the river out of a misguided fear about getting check-raise bluffed or, in this case, three-bet bluffed. I expect a 3-bet here to be extremely rare, and I wouldn’t think twice about folding to one.

Even if Villain were capable of this, it wouldn’t be a reason not to raise. It’s generally correct to have a range that bets/raises for value and folds to a re-raise, as long as it isn’t the entirety of your value range. Villain should still have a calling range against Hero, because three-betting is too expensive to be his only defense against bluffs, and Aces should be ahead of that calling range.

Results

I raised to 3000. Villain called and mucked.

The possibility of a big payoff when the board runs out so nicely is part of what makes checking the flop competitive with betting. The amount of money Villain puts into the pot versus this line should be comparable to the amount he would put in against a bet-bet-bet line, which is the other way I could see myself playing this runout. If it isn’t, then he can be exploited by taking one line with all weak hands and the other with all strong hands.

Bottom line: Villain is quite unlikely to have a hand better than AA. He also has a lot of incentive to pay off a large raise, even if we don’t make exploitive assumptions about him (which would only make me feel better about putting in a big raise).

Blinds are 50/100, Villain has about 20K (starting stack), and I have about 25K. Only six players (including both blinds) have claimed their seats so far. I have black Aces first to act and open to 300.

Villain calls from the SB, and everyone else folds.

Flop (700 in pot) Jc 8c 6h. Villain checks.

Turn (700 in pot) 6d. Villain bets 400. Hero?

I once again suspect that at equilibrium, the Expected Values of raising and calling will be quite similar for all of Hero’s strong hands. This is because these hands have relatively static value versus Villain’s likely betting range. If you have some exploitable read on Villain, you should employ it. In this case, I’d consider his river bluffing tendencies the most important read. Against overly passive opponents, raising now is probably best, and against overly aggressive ones, calling is probably best. Without such a read, though, it can be tough to tease out the best play, because it’s going to be a small difference, with good arguments on each side. Of course that also means that it won’t matter terribly much what you choose, but I nevertheless think that the exercise of finding the best option is both good practice and intrinsically interesting.

Several commenters argued the merits of calling versus raising in a vacuum quite well. It’s striking, though, that none of these arguments is really specific to the exact hand Hero holds. They would apply just as well to any hand Hero wants to play for value. Now, it’s certainly possible that one option might just be strictly better than the other for value, but I think that would imply some exploitability on Villain’s part, and I’d be more comfortable with such a solution if we could pinpoint what precisely it is we’re exploiting and why we feel comfortable with that read.

In cases like these, I find it helpful to imagine that I will call with some strong hands and raise with others. This enables me to rephrase the question, not as “Is calling strictly better than raising?” but rather, “Is there anything about my hand that would make it better than similar hands for calling or raising?”

Consider the arguments in favor of raising. Dave says, “If villain has a semi-bluff, he seems very likely to call a turn raise since hero could be bluffing and his hand could improve.” I agree that against Villain’s draws, raising is probably somewhat better than calling, as it more or less guarantees that we get a second bet into the pot (or fold out a good bit of equity), whereas on the river Villain may or may not bluff when he misses but will certainly put a bet in when he hits. However, the Ac in our hand significantly reduces the likelihood that Villain holds a draw.

Relatedly, Dave worries that “we have to guess at his bluffing frequency on a good number of draw-completing rivers”. That’s not quite true, though. The Ac is a very significant blocker, which means that bluff-catching with that card in your hand will be +EV even against an opponent with an optimal river bluffing frequency. We know the Ac is in our hand, but he doesn’t know that we know that. This means that on club rivers, we have an information advantage that can be exploited. Although these may not be the best river cards in the deck, they are cards on which Hero can in fact expect to put money into the pot with an edge.

Mark points out that, “Hands opponent is betting for value, particularly Jacks may be scared off by a lot of cards, such as possible flushes, straights, or overcards. This makes up a huge portion of the deck.” Here, again, we have significant blockers. Aces are not good cards for getting value from Jx, and the Ac would be especially bad. When we know that the river is less likely than usual to be an Ace, that becomes an argument in favor of calling with this hand and raising some different value hand, such as 7h 6h, which does not block so many scare card rivers.

As Mark points out, hands like 76 are also more desirable for raising than AA “as they block the portion of opponent’s range that are beating both AA and [trips with a bad kicker]”.

If the decision is otherwise close, we can break the tie by considering the relevance of the exact cards we hold. In this case, they argue for a call, which is what I did.

The next decision point is here.

Contribute to the Bay Area Urban Debate League and get entered in a contest to win free Tournament Poker Edge membership, free coaching, free Nitcast gear, and more! Learn more here. Watch the first free video, with Gareth Chantler, here.

Timestamps

0:30 – hello & welcome
25:22 – strategy

Strategy

5/10/20 $3500 effective.

HJ opens to $60, Hero calls 66 in CO, Straddle calls.
Flop ($190) 644ss checked around
Turn ($190) 8o Straddle bets $100, HJ folds, I raise to $300, he makes it $1040, I call.
River ($2270) Jo He jams for roughly pot.

Timestamps

0:30 – hello and welcome
15:08 – strategy

Strategy

Hand 1

30/60 Limit Hold ‘Em.

Hero opens K9o from the CO, BB calls.

Flop 884r. Check, bet, raise, call.

Turn 2r. Bet, call.

River J. Bet, call.

Hand 2

Seat 3: NateMeyvis (2336 in chips)
Seat 7: Villain (1416 in chips)
NateMeyvis: posts small blind 5
Villain: posts big blind 10
HOLE CARDS
Dealt to NateMeyvis [Td 8s]
NateMeyvis: raises 15 to 25
Villain: calls 15
FLOP [Kc Qh 5d]
Villain: checks
NateMeyvis: bets 32
Villain: calls 32
TURN [Kc Qh 5d] [Ac]
Villain: checks
NateMeyvis: bets 175
Villain said, “wtf?”
Villain: calls 175
RIVER [Kc Qh 5d Ac] [4d]
Villain: checks
NateMeyvis: checks

Note: As a high stakes player, Jorge will surely be directly affected by the recently announced changes at PokerStars. I don’t know how much he’d be able to address them, as a PokerStars representative, but in any event this interview was recorded before they were announced, so unfortunately we didn’t have the opportunity to ask him.

You can follow Jorge on Twitter and watch his Team Online short film here. If you can handle the Spanish, you can watch him on Twitch as well.

Timestamps

0:30 – hello
8:19 – AT in 3b pot
39:16 – talkin with Jorge

Strategy

Very loose agro player on my immediate right raises a straddle 3x to 30 in LoJack, I make it 90 in hijack with A10o. The main villain pretty quickly calls on button. Loose player folds.

Flop (221) Ad 4d Ah. Hero thinks for about 15 seconds and bets 115. This player snap shoves for about a pot sized bet.

Follow Clayton on Twitter@claytoncomic and learn more about his upcoming shows from his website. His podcast is Broadway Comedy Club Radio.

Timestamps

0:30 Hello and Welcome
34:44 Main Event Strategy

Strategy

Hand 1

Blinds 800/1600/200 effective stack 80K
Hero opens to 3500 with Qd Jd in 3rd position, Button 3bets to 8500, Hero calls

Flop QT7 with one diamond.
Hero checks, Button bets 9500, Hero calls

Turn Ks. Hero checks, Button bets 11,500 into 40,200, Hero calls.

River 9s. Hero checks, Button shoves

Hand 2

Blinds 100/200 effective stack 30K.

Villain opens to 450, one call, Hero raises to 1300 with Jc 8c on the Button, Villain calls, other player folds.

Flop (3200) Ac Jh 7c. Villain checks, Hero bets 1500, Villain raises to 4000, Hero calls.

Turn (11K) 9d. Villain bets 5000, Hero calls.

Rivers (21,300) 8s. Villain bets 7000 into 21000.

Hand  3

Blinds 1K/2K/300 effective stacks 160K. Villain opens to 4K, Hero has QQ in the SB and raises 11K, V raises to 33K.

Pick up your copy today at www.nitcast.com (you’ll get PDF, EPUB, and Kindle versions) or in the Kindle Store (Kindle version only).

Sam’s first appearance on Shark Cage is available on Youtube. Follow @squidpoker on Twitter!

Mailbag

0:30 hello and welcome
48:57 strategy

Strategy

Our discussion was a continuation of this hand from Episode 143:

PokerStars – $1000+$50|8000/16000 Ante 2000 NL (6 max) – Holdem – 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG: 61.6 BB (VPIP: 26.46, PFR: 18.59, 3Bet Preflop: 11.72, Hands: 359)
CO: 60.1 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 27.50, 3Bet Preflop: 15.38, Hands: 40)
BTN: 90.5 BB (VPIP: 19.22, PFR: 15.56, 3Bet Preflop: 6.07, Hands: 591)
SB: 61.46 BB (VPIP: 19.31, PFR: 15.97, 3Bet Preflop: 10.32, Hands: 295)
Hero (BB): 63.17 BB

5 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.13 BB) Hero has 9c Jc
UTG raises to 2.19 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.19 BB

Flop : (5.51 BB, 2 players) Jd 3c Ks
Hero checks, UTG bets 2.41 BB, Hero calls 2.41 BB

Turn : (10.33 BB, 2 players) Ac
Hero checks, UTG checks

River : (10.33 BB, 2 players) 7s
Hero checks, UTG bets 4.65 BB, Hero?

Strategy

Hand 1

2-4 PLO8 on Bovada. 4-handed.

I open to $12 with (AT)J7–I’m using Bill Chen’s notation where suited cards go in parentheses.

Only the BB calls. He’s playing $200ish, and I cover.

Flop KQ8 rainbow. BB checks; I bet half the pot ($13).

Turn pairs the 8 and puts up a flush draw (I have the 7 of the suit). BB checks.

Hand 2

1-2 NLHE 6max on Bovada. I have 220.98 (after posting BB). Folds to button who raises to $6. SB Calls
I raise to $24 (pot) with AA. Button calls

Flop ($54 in pot) Jh Qd 8s
I bet $54 and the button jams and covers me. So $307 in the pot and I have 145 giving me almost exactly 2:1.

Hand 3

PokerStars – $1000+$50|8000/16000 Ante 2000 NL (6 max) – Holdem – 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG: 61.6 BB (VPIP: 26.46, PFR: 18.59, 3Bet Preflop: 11.72, Hands: 359)
CO: 60.1 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 27.50, 3Bet Preflop: 15.38, Hands: 40)
BTN: 90.5 BB (VPIP: 19.22, PFR: 15.56, 3Bet Preflop: 6.07, Hands: 591)
SB: 61.46 BB (VPIP: 19.31, PFR: 15.97, 3Bet Preflop: 10.32, Hands: 295)
Hero (BB): 63.17 BB

5 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.13 BB) Hero has 9c Jc
UTG raises to 2.19 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.19 BB

Flop : (5.51 BB, 2 players) Jd 3c Ks
Hero checks, UTG bets 2.41 BB, Hero calls 2.41 BB

Turn : (10.33 BB, 2 players) Ac
Hero checks, UTG checks

River : (10.33 BB, 2 players) 7s
Hero checks, UTG bets 4.65 BB, Hero?