Posts Tagged ‘thin value bet’

This week’s WYP didn’t prove too controversial, but it generated some good discussion nonetheless. I must say that I’m a little disappointed more of you weren’t tempted to make the same mistake I did:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $6.00 BB (6 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($2845.40)
BB ($1543.40)
UTG ($798.80)
Hero (MP) ($1573.80)
CO ($2739.30)
Button ($664.40)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q♥, K♥
UTG bets $18, Hero calls $18, 2 folds, SB calls $15, BB calls $12

Flop: ($79.20) K♠, Q♦, 7♥ (4 players)
SB bets $39, 1 fold, UTG calls $39, Hero raises to $159.90, SB calls $120.90, 1 fold

Turn: ($438) 9♦ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($438) 4♣ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $284.25, SB raises to $2666.30 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: $1006.50 | Rake: $3

Results:
SB didn’t show
Outcome: SB won $1003.50

I think the consensus among the commenters is correct and checking is better. Even at the time part of me was thinking it wouldn’t be easy to get called by worse and I could get raised by both better and worse. But, like Fuel55, I then told myself that checking top two would be too weak. Nate made the case for checking very well:  Read the complete post...

This hand occurred at a PokerStars deep table, meaning that the maximum buyin is $1500 and there’s an ante ($0.60 I believe) in addition to the blinds. I’ve never seen Villain before, but he seems both very aggressive and very good. He’s 36/21 with 8% 3-bet. I haven’t seen him take much to showdown (which is in itself an indication of skill), but he’s consistently bet and raised in what seem like good spots. I’ll be happy to answer questions about why I played the way I did before the river, but I’m going to wait until Friday when I post the results so as not to give away anything about my own thinking. You’ve got top two on the river: what’s your play?

No-Limit Hold’em, $6.00 BB (6 handed) – Hold’em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($2845.40)
BB ($1543.40)
UTG ($798.80)
Hero (MP) ($1573.80)
CO ($2739.30)
Button ($664.40)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q♥, K♥
UTG bets $18, Hero calls $18, 2 folds, SB calls $15, BB calls $12

Flop: ($72) K♠, Q♦, 7♥ (4 players)
SB bets $39, 1 fold, UTG calls $39, Hero raises $159.90, SB calls $120.90, 1 fold

Turn: ($430.80) 9♦ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($430.80) 4♣ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero?

I’ve now got three Thinking Poker Tournament Seminars under the belt, and they keep getting better every time. The next seminar will be held at 11AM Eastern time on Monday, December 19. The topic will be Advanced Flop Fundamentals, and it will take one of my most popular PokerSavvy Plus video series as a starting point on which to build more advanced skills. This seminar will include a free one-month subscription to PokerSavvy Plus.

Thinking Poker Tournament Seminars are pre-scheduled, small-group discussions focused on the most common mistakes and skills gaps that I see in my NLHE tournament students. Each two-hour seminar costs $150 per person and is capped at five participants, to enable individualized attention and opportunities for everyone to ask questions and participate in discussions. The content is prepared and the discussion facilitated by me- it’s like an interactive poker video!

Participants will learn how about alternatives to the continuation bet, how to deal with donk bets, when to slowplay, and how correct flop play varies with stack and pot size. My Flop Fundamentals video series will be required viewing in advance of the seminar, because everything we discuss will build on those concepts while getting more in-depth and sophisticated. Playing common flop spots well is essential to tournament success, so you don’t want to miss this seminar!  Read the complete post...

I’m blown away by the number of responses Monday’s What’s Your Play? post received. It produced some great discussion that was instructive even for me, so a big thanks to all of you who commented. I know I didn’t interact with your comments as much as I usually do, but truthfully you all were doing such a good job of asking and answering your own questions that I didn’t feel it was necessary. Really this sort of reader interaction is a blogger’s dream!

Hero has four real options here, all of which were thoroughly analyzed in the comments: check-raise all-in, bet small to induce a raise, bet 75-125% of pot, or open shove for 200% of pot. I’ll offer my thoughts on each here, but I strongly encourage you to go back and skim the comments if you haven’t, because there’s a lot of good material in there that I’m not going to address specifically.

Bet 75-125% of Pot- As a theoretical matter, I believe that when you have the nuts you should generally take a line that maximizes your chances of playing a large pot, even if this results in winning less from the bottom of your opponent’s range. It’s a fundamental principle of poker: big hand, big pot. For that reason, I don’t like this line. This is a much better card for Hero’s range than for Villain’s and not one on which he’s likely to bluff or bluff-catch aggressively. Even very strong hands like sets may just call a bet of this size, which is of course a disaster for us, so this is my least favorite option.  Read the complete post...

The next installment in the Thinking Poker Tournament Seminar series will be on Saturday, December 3rd, Noon-2 PM Eastern. The topic will be Playing Out of Position: Value Betting, Bluffing, and Getting to Showdown. Virtually all of the toughest spots in poker arise from playing out of position, and good players assume that they can get away with playing almost anything when they have position. Learn to punish them by giving them what they don’t expect: tough, creative opposition, even from out of position!

Thinking Poker Tournament Seminars are pre-scheduled, small-group discussions focused on the most common mistakes and skills gaps that I see in my NLHE tournament students. Each two-hour seminar costs $150 per person and is capped at five participants, to enable individualized attention and opportunities for everyone to ask questions and participate in discussions. The content is prepared and the discussion facilitated by me- it’s like an interactive poker video!

Participants will learn how to defend their blinds against late and early position raisers, how to deal with post-flop aggression, and how to pull-off the ever-vexing donk bet. In addition to the seminar itself, all participants receive a syllabus of recommended study materials to help prepare for the session and apply newly acquired skills in their future play.  Read the complete post...

Q: You were talking about a hand you played on Day 1 of the recent BCPC . You didn’t specifically say the blinds and stack sizes, but I can estimate them from your write-up and my guess is that the blinds were 100/200 (no ante?) with effective stacks about 11,500 (with you having him covered at about 15k). It was a limped pot and you had A9o in the small blind and the villain was in the cutoff. Flop was Jc 9c 4h and the villain led for 450 into a pot of 1,000. You raised to 1,650, he re-raised to 6,100 and you shoved. Your logic was that “you were very sure he was on a draw” because “nothing else made sense”.

My questions are:

1. Why couldn’t villain have had J9s (3 combos), or 44, 99, or even JJ (between 3 and 9 combos)? While monster draws are clearly a big part of his range, if you include these other possibilities where you are drawing very slim or dead, I think it may become a fold.  Read the complete post...

I was happy with my table, and the day got off to a great start. I was one of the two biggest stacks, the other one of whom was a young Asian kid in yellow hoodie and designer sunglasses who looked like he could be good. He handled his chips well and raised in a lot of the right spots, but after watching him tank and agonize before calling a 3-bet shove with QTs getting better than 2:1, I decided he couldn’t be that great. He subsequently lost half of his stack with KK to AK, berated the other guy for 4-betting AK, and then tilted off the rest of his chips, so I didn’t have to worry about him.

I did more than my part to bust out the short stacks, waking up with AQ in my big blind when someone shoved KQ and then with QQ when an even shorter stack 3-bet shoved TT. I shot up from 50K to 90K and took the liberty of opening a few more pots. At 300/600/50, I opened to 1300 with T8s and the BB defended. He quickly bet out at an A94 flop, but I called him with nothing but my backdoor draw and he check-folded the turn. The next orbit I raised him again with QTs. He quickly shoved 6600, and I did some quick math to determine that it was close but I had enough chips to establish a “don’t shove on me” image. I called and was pleasantly surprised to see his Q3s, which did not get there.  Read the complete post...

Emily and I arrived in Vancouver less than two days before my departure for Europe. I’ve been back for a little over a week now, so I’m just starting to get settled in. It seems like a very cool city: mild climate (for Canada- still chilly, but the notorious rain hasn’t actually been too bad in my limited time here), good public transportation and bike-friendly, wide variety of bars and restaurants, great coffee, and just all around vibrant and lively. I can see why it’s one of the most expensive places to live in North America.

We’re renting a suite in a beautiful house in Kittsilano, which seems to be the yuppy district. Our landlords are a gay couple, one a wiry, frenetic, chain-smoking Frenchman and his partner a much more easy-going Czech. It seems like the Frenchman did most of the decorating, because the house and yard, though very well laid out, are cluttered with kitschy knick-knacks.

The main event of the British Columbia Poker Championship is a $2700 tournament drawing roughly 500 participants, so while it’s not something I would have considered traveling to play, it was well worth half an hour on a bus and a train to get there. It’s a real who’s who of Canadian poker (with the notable absence of Daniel Negreanu), though this year a number of American refugees are vying for the title as well. I am one of these carpetbaggers.  Read the complete post...