Posts Tagged ‘thin value bet’

I’ve now got another video up with Poker School Online, the PokerStars training site. This one focuses on mid-stakes no-limit hold ‘em and specifically on hand reading, so it’s a nice option if the last video I posted was too basic for you. Again, if you like this, please leave a positive comment and give it an appropriate number of stars. If there’s positive feedback, some more videos might start to show up!

Edit: Hero holds Qh Th. Thanks to Georgios for pointing that rather significant omission!

This is a key hand from the final table of a tournament a friend recently won. It was a $125 freezeout at Aria. Hero is in his late 20′s and has been playing aggressively and well – you can read the trip report linked above if you want a better idea of what exactly his table image might be.

Blinds are 3K/6K/1K, and four players remain in the tournament. I don’t know the exact payout structure, but it’s not particularly top heavy.

The SB is an older gentleman with 110K who is exceedingly tight and cautious. Hero is in the BB with 265K. The CO is a very tight 22-year old with 150K. The BTN is the chipleader with 320K.

Hero and Button have been running over the other two over. The BTN seems generally to be on the reckless side of loose-aggressive. He opens tons of pots and hates to fold. He ran up a huge stack by getting slapped with the deck (he’s shown down Aces four times already at the final table) but has since given away nearly half of that with some questionable calls, including raise-calling 53s against a 110K shove getting nowhere near the appropriate odds.  Read the complete post...

The exciting (?) conclusion of my 2012 PCA Trip Report has just been published in the February issue of 2+2 Magazine. Regular readers of “What’s Your Play?” will recognize a few of the hands, but there’s plenty of new content for everyone, plus it turns out the Mizrachis’ mother is hilarious! Here’s a little taste:

I got off to a good start, calling a raise to 2,200 from a seemingly tight-aggressive player in middle position with AJo in the CO. The big blind called as well, and we saw a K82 rainbow flop.

The pre-flop raiser bet 4,500. Against some players this would be a snap-call with a good Ace-high, but his TAG image gave me pause. I ultimately called because the board was so good for a continuation bet and the odds so tempting, but I didn’t feel great about it. The third player folded.

We both checked an 8 on the turn. The river brought a Q, and he checked again. AJ has considerable showdown value here, but I decided to turn it into a bluff by betting 7,500….

Give it a read and let me know what you think!

It eventually disappeared, but initially I noticed an interesting pattern in the comments that this week’s “What’s Your Play?” received on Thinking Poker vs. Card Player. The vast majority of the early posters on my website argued for an admittedly tight fold, while the first Card Player responders unanimously wanted to call. As time went on, the responses on both sites became more mixed, but I think this disparity is meaningful. There is one sort of player who looks first to pot odds, and, when they are good, asks “Can you give me a damn good reason to fold?”

The other sort seek to put an opponent on a hand first, or perhaps just to get a feel for how likely they are to be good. If they don’t like what they see, then they ask, “Just how good are those pot odds?”  Read the complete post...

Q: My understanding is that I should generally continuation bet a polarized range consisting of both bluffs and strong hands but check medium-strength hands for pot control. Sometimes I have difficulty determining which category my hand falls into. For example, if I raise in middle position, the BB calls, and we see a Ks Jd Ts flop, is JT strong enough to bet? What about As Js?

A: Very good question. As with many tough decisions, this one is easier if you think in terms of not just whether or not to continuation bet with the cards you currently hold but what your plan will be for the entire hand. How you would play other hands in the same spot is also an important consideration.

Let’s start by thinking about JT. Two-pair is a strong hand, even on a flop like this one where it’s nowhere near the nuts. Depending on your opponent and how the board runs out, I can certainly envision scenarios where you’d be looking to bet three times for value.  That’s a reason to bet now, because you can’t bet three streets if you don’t bet the flop.  Read the complete post...

Edit: Effective stacks are $2000. The fact that I didn’t think to include that should tell you something about how relevant I think that is. Thanks to Ian for pointing out the error.

This hand comes from a live $5/$10 NLHE game at the Hollywood Casino in Charleston, West Virginia. Villain has been at the table for about an hour and hasn’t proven particularly active or nitty in that time. He seems to be a regular in his late 20′s, probably professional or semi-professional. He doesn’t seem super-talented but good enough to be a modest winner in a live $5/$10 game.

The one hand that I saw him play that’s of interest here, he check-called three bets with A9 on AQ68Q. He was in the BB and lost to the Button, who had QJ. The significant thing is that when he called on the flop and turn he literally beat his opponent into the pot. Like he held chips in his hand, hovering over the pot, and dropped in the appropriate amount as soon as his opponent announced a bet. He vocalized some frustration after losing that pot but hasn’t seemed tilty since. It’s been about half an hour since then.  Read the complete post...

The next Thinking Poker tournament seminar will focus on Maximizing Value and will be held on Thursday, March 8 from 8-10 PM Eastern (New York) time. Participants will learn when to slowplay, how to build a pot with monster hands, and how to squeeze thin value out of marginal hands. In addition to the seminar itself, all participants receive a syllabus of recommended study materials to help prepare for the session and apply newly acquired skills in their future play.

These seminars are pre-scheduled, small-group discussions focused on the most common mistakes and skills gaps that I see in my NLHE tournament students. Each two-hour seminar costs $150 per person and is capped at five participants, to enable individualized attention and opportunities for everyone to ask questions and participate in discussions. The content is prepared and the discussion facilitated by me- it’s like an interactive poker video! Best of all, this is my second time offering a seminar on this topic, meaning that the material has been revised and refined with experience and feedback from past participants.  Read the complete post...

As you know, I was the Villain from What’s Your Play? Busted Draw. As many of you deduced, I held KK with a spade. My opponent was kind enough to give up on the river and let me win the pot with a hand that, barring some really blatant physical tell on his part, I would have folded to even a modest river bet.

Steve Phillips left a comment that sums up the reasons for bluffing with KJ quite nicely and also sets up a few of the other things I wanted to talk about, so I’m going to post it here even though it’s somewhat long:

I think it’s a good spot to bluff-shove for several reasons:
a) Hero’s line is consistent with trips+
b) Hero’s stack size is perfect for it
c) Villain’s range is limited somewhat due to the turn action
d) If Villain holds a strong hand AA/KK and even AQ, it’s a difficult call
e) Hero holds one of the worst hands in his range
f) Given the read (older dude, probably solid/straightforward?), Villain doesn’t expect Hero to be turning JsJc/AdTd type hands into bluffs. Therefore Hero’s perceived range on a river shove is trips+ or wiffed draws, and there aren’t many wiffed draws
g) Villain might get to the river with hands that have no value (AdKs, AhKs, AsKd, AsKc, AcKs, AsJd, AsJh, AsJc) that all beat Hero if he checks but will fold if Hero bets
You might argue with my first point because Hero might have raised the flop with his strongest made hands (QQ/QT/TT/66) and his strongest draws (AsJs/8s7s/KsJs, etc.), but in general when Hero bets or shoves river he will have a strong hand a lot of the time.
I’m interested in hearing your thoughts on betting half-pot (or some other amount) instead of moving all-in.  Read the complete post...