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	<title>Thinking Poker &#187; tilt</title>
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	<link>http://www.thinkingpoker.net</link>
	<description>Poker strategy blog, poker book reviews, trip reports and more!</description>
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		<title>Book Review: How I Made My First Million From Poker</title>
		<link>http://www.thinkingpoker.net/2011/12/book-review-how-i-made-my-first-million-from-poker/</link>
		<comments>http://www.thinkingpoker.net/2011/12/book-review-how-i-made-my-first-million-from-poker/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Dec 2011 04:46:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>foucault</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Poker Books]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Barry Greenstein]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[how i made my first million from poker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NLHE]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[no-limit hold 'em]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PLO]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[tri nguyen]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thinkingpoker.net/?p=8171</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Tri Nguyen just came out with a new book that has more in common with Barry Greenstein&#8217;s Ace on the River than with a strategy manual. Here&#8217;s the long and short of what I had to say about it: How I Made My First Million From Poker is all over the map. It’s a memoir, it’s [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Tri Nguyen just came out with a new book that has more in common with <a href="http://www.thinkingpoker.net/trip-reports/world-series-of-poker-07/wsop-07-pt8/">Barry Greenstein&#8217;s <em>Ace on the River</em></a> than with a strategy manual. Here&#8217;s the long and short of what I had to say about it:</p>
<blockquote><p><em><a href="http://www.dailyvariance.com/product/my-first-million-from-poker/">How I Made My First Million From Poker</a></em> is all over the map. It’s a memoir, it’s a strategy book, it’s a poker lifestyle book. This jack of all trades is a master of none, though readers who can get past Tri Nguyen’s off-putting persona are likely to find enough helpful advice to warrant a modest sticker price of $47 for paperback or e-book. All in all it’s a 6/10.</p></blockquote>
<p>You can <a href="http://www.thinkingpoker.net/poker-book-reviews/book-review-how-i-made-my-first-million-from-poker/">read the full review here</a>. If you read the book, please let me know what you think. By the way, using <a href="http://www.dailyvariance.com/product/my-first-million-from-poker/">my affiliate link</a> will save you 10%, so be sure to do that if you buy it!</p>
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		<item>
		<title>Busto</title>
		<link>http://www.thinkingpoker.net/2011/10/busto/</link>
		<comments>http://www.thinkingpoker.net/2011/10/busto/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 15 Oct 2011 23:19:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>foucault</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Trip Report]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bad beat]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bet sizing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blocking bet]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bluff]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[no-limit hold 'em]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[poker]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[scott seiver]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[semi-bluff]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Session Review]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[thin value bet]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[tilt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[tournament]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[vanessa rousso]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[WSOP Europe]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thinkingpoker.net/?p=7946</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Edit: Fixed the flop in the Vanessa Rousso hand, I didn´t river a full house obviously. Busted third to last hand of the night, been going back and forth a lot for the last half hour about whether I like my call, but we´ll get to that in a second. Table draw was OK but [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Edit: Fixed the flop in the Vanessa Rousso hand, I didn´t river a full house obviously.</p>
<p>Busted third to last hand of the night, been going back and forth a lot for the last half hour about whether I like my call, but we´ll get to that in a second. Table draw was OK but my seat was rough, had the only two truly good players at the table both on my immediate left. One of them busted the other, which I was happy about until that seat was filled by Scott Seiver. Even in position, that guy is tough to play against.</p>
<p>I played what I think was a very good TAG game for most of the day and hovered between 90-120% of the average. With about half an hour to go, my table broke and I moved to a much softer table which unfortunately was next on the break order.</p>
<p>Third table was tougher than the second but softer than the first, though again my seat wasn´t great. To my left was a kid who exuded competence and was sitting on more than twice the average. I could tell from the way the table was responding to him and talking about him that he´d been very difficult to play against.</p>
<p>Blinds 250/500/50, I raise to 1250 with KJo UTG+2, Rousso calls, BB who does not seem very good calls. Flop AQ8r, BB checks, I bet 2600, they both call. Turn 6 completes the rainbow and this seems like a good spot to barrel, as I think it´s very tough for anyone to call with less than two pair. I bet 8800 leaving about pot behind in my stack. Rousso tanks and calls, BB folds. River K and I check not because I think I´m good but because I think she made her commitment decision on the turn and isn´t folding. She says, ¨Please don´t have Ace-King¨ as though I´d check that.</p>
<p>&#8220;AQ is good,¨ I tell her.</p>
<p>She shakes her head and looks nervous, so even though I´m sure I´m beat I show. She has 86o, so essentially she hit a 5-outer on the turn.</p>
<p>Next hand I have KJo again and raise to 1250 again. I think choosing to make a marginal raise immediately after a frustrating loss was probably the biggest mistake I made in this hand. Tough player on my left calls, someone else calls, BB calls. Flop Kc Qh 6c, I check, guy on my left bets like 2/3 pot, the other two fold, I call. Turn 4h, I check planning to check-raise all-in but he makes a suspicious face and checks behind. I put him on a straight or flush draw.</p>
<p>River 9h completes JT and backdoor hearts, which aren´t entirely impossible for him if he has like Ah Th. I don´t think he bluffs much if I check, so my options are either check-fold or bet. I bet 4500, which was less than half-pot. I had it in the back of my head that this might be a better way to induce a bluff than checking, but I wish I´d thought more about what I would do if raised before I bet.</p>
<p>Villain thought for a bit and shoved, it was about 13K more for me to call to win like 33K. Obviously JT got there so the question is how often he shoves busted draws. Like I said before, I had the impression that the whole table was intimidated by him, which leads me to think that he would bluff pretty often vs. a blocking bet. The guy on my right actually called the clock on me, which I don´t know where that came from because we were playing a fixed number of hands before stopping for the night anyway so it really didn´t affect him at all for me to take my time. Anyway I obviously ended up calling and was shown Jc Tc, so I´m still not sure what to think about that one.</p>
<p>I´ll post more of a trip report soon, but wanted to get the results up there now. Thanks to everyone who was following along and especially those of you who bought action, sorry I couldn´t bring you a better result.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>David Foster Wallace on Tilt</title>
		<link>http://www.thinkingpoker.net/2011/02/david-foster-wallace-on-tilt/</link>
		<comments>http://www.thinkingpoker.net/2011/02/david-foster-wallace-on-tilt/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 27 Feb 2011 18:03:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>foucault</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Personal]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[david foster wallace]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[poker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[tilt]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thinkingpoker.net/?p=7302</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[After my other adventures on Friday night, I decided to read for a while. I&#8217;m currently working on Cormac McCarthy&#8217;s Blood Meridian, but I didn&#8217;t want to exacerbate my already bad mood by immersing myself in a world of flea-ridden &#8220;soldiers&#8221; graphically scalping and getting scalped by Apaches, so I decided to start re-reading one [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>After my other adventures on Friday night, I decided to read for a while. I&#8217;m currently working on Cormac McCarthy&#8217;s <em>Blood Meridian</em>, but I didn&#8217;t want to exacerbate my already bad mood by immersing myself in a world of flea-ridden &#8220;soldiers&#8221; graphically scalping and getting scalped by Apaches, so I decided to start re-reading one of my all-time favorite books, David Foster Wallace&#8217;s &#8220;A Supposedly Fun Thing I&#8217;ll Never Do Again&#8221;.</p>
<p>The very first essay is a reflection on the author&#8217;s experiences as a junior tennis great in downstate Illinois. In that part of the country, wind was a huge factor in the game, and Wallace attributes much of his success to his ability to deal with the concomitant frustrations more coolly than his better-prepared opponents could:</p>
<blockquote><p>I, who was affectionately known as Slug because I  was such a lazy turd in practice, located my biggest tennis asset in a  weird robotic detachment from whatever unfairnesses of wind and weather I  couldn’t plan for. I couldn’t begin to tell you how many tournament  matches I won between the ages of twelve and fifteen against bigger,  faster, more coordinated, and better-coached opponents simply by hitting  balls unimaginatively back down the middle of the court in  schizophrenic gales, letting the other kid play with more verve and  panache, waiting for enough of his ambitious balls aimed near the lines  to curve or slide via wind outside the green court and white stripe into  the raw red territory that won me yet another ugly point. It wasn’t  pretty or fun to watch, and even with the Illinois wind I never could  have won whole matches this way had the opponent not eventually had his  small nervous breakdown, buckling under the obvious injustice of losing  to a shallow-chested “pusher” because of the shitty rural courts and  rotten wind that rewarded cautious automatism instead of verve and  panache. I was an unpopular player, with good reason. But to say that I  did not use verve or imagination was untrue. Acceptance is its own  verve, and it takes imagination for a player to like wind, and I liked wind.</p></blockquote>
<p>I don&#8217;t know how I missed it the first time around, but I think the parallels to tilt in poker are clear.</p>
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		<item>
		<title>Frustration</title>
		<link>http://www.thinkingpoker.net/2011/02/frustration/</link>
		<comments>http://www.thinkingpoker.net/2011/02/frustration/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 26 Feb 2011 03:21:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>foucault</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Personal]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[3-bet]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[4-bet]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[5-bet]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[tommy angelo]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thinkingpoker.net/?p=7299</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I let a guy get under my skin and tilt me tonight, which I almost never do. We were at a $2/$4 deep-stacked table, and he was just relentlessly aggressive pre-flop, both in and out of position. He was cold 4-betting me, he was 3-betting me, he was 5-betting me, etc. and always with perfect [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I let a guy get under my skin and tilt me tonight, which I almost never do. We were at a $2/$4 deep-stacked table, and he was just relentlessly aggressive pre-flop, both in and out of position. He was cold 4-betting me, he was 3-betting me, he was 5-betting me, etc. and always with perfect timing. Like I was getting no action on my big hands but getting re-raised constantly when I was at the middle or bottom of my range. Initially I think I was dealing with it well, but he was running well and so sucking out with whatever garbage he&#8217;d 3-bet from out of position. Then I made a stupid 6-bet all with A3s and he pretty well owned me by 5-bet-calling 99 for 250BB&#8217;s. Then we got into another big pot where he called a 4-bet from out of position with 65s, flopped a flush draw, turned a pair, got it in against my TPTK for 250 BB&#8217;s, and sucked out on the river. I swore out loud after that one, which is something I used to do a lot but that I&#8217;ve tried to stop doing in the last year.</p>
<p>After that I just quit. When you&#8217;ve been playing badly, I think it&#8217;s important to recognize and learn from your mistakes but also to find something that you did well and take pride in that, so that you don&#8217;t get too down on yourself. So, I took pride in quitting well. (Thanks, <a href="http://www.thinkingpoker.net/poker-book-reviews/index.php?page_id=203">Tommy Angelo</a>).</p>
<p>Usually I try to leave my frustrations at the table when I quit, but tonight I couldn&#8217;t (still can&#8217;t, really, which is part of why I&#8217;m writing this). I paced around my apartment for a while, complained to my girlfriend, and then went for a walk.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s cold, windy, and snowy in Boston right now, but once you get past the unpleasantness of that, it&#8217;s actually quite pretty as well. We live in a picturesque neighborhood, and the streetlights shining on snowy brownstones is lovely.</p>
<p>As I started walking, this crazy thought went through my head: &#8220;I hope nobody tries to mug me tonight, because I&#8217;m really in the mood to punch somebody, and I don&#8217;t think that would end well for me.&#8221; I don&#8217;t know why that occurred to me; despite the weather, plenty of people were out on a Friday night in Boston, and I wasn&#8217;t wandering through dark alleys or anything. Plus I probably wouldn&#8217;t have done it anyway, but I was feeling a little bit crazy.</p>
<p>Troubled by that thought, I decided to turn it into something positive instead, so the next crazy thought that occurred to me was that I should go make somebody&#8217;s night by dropping $20 on the first panhandler I saw. I was mulling over whether I should actually do this when as if on cue a guy asked me for change. I paused, started to reach into my pocket, and then realized I only had a couple of ones on me.</p>
<p>&#8220;I&#8217;ll get you on the way back,&#8221; I told him, which I think tilted the shit out of him because he started calling after me, &#8220;I&#8217;m looking for work, too! I&#8217;m a certified electrician!&#8221; He said some other stuff that I couldn&#8217;t hear. There was an ATM on the corner, so I got some cash, folded up a $20, and dropped it in his cup. I could tell he was a talker and I really wasn&#8217;t in the mood for conversation, so I tried to just keep walking, but he must have checked immediately to see what I gave him because he started shouting &#8220;Thank you!&#8221; at my back.</p>
<p>There&#8217;s a coffee shop right across the street that has really good-looking baked goods I&#8217;ve been wanting to try, so I stopped in to buy a cookie but all they had left were some dry looking scones. Could I run any worse? So I left there and walked a few more blocks to the Whole Foods, but they didn&#8217;t have much of a selection either. I wasn&#8217;t particularly proud of myself for wanting to drown my sorrows in food, so I bought a muffin that I didn&#8217;t think I&#8217;d like, ate a few bites, and threw the rest away.</p>
<p>Then I walked home, still feeling frustrated, and so here we are.</p>
<p>Cliff&#8217;s Notes: I ran bad and played bad but at least I quit well. Then I went for a walk and tilted a panhandler but made it up to him. Then I bought a muffin but didn&#8217;t eat it. Cool story, bro.</p>
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		<item>
		<title>Robots Learn Deception</title>
		<link>http://www.thinkingpoker.net/2010/09/robots-learn-deception/</link>
		<comments>http://www.thinkingpoker.net/2010/09/robots-learn-deception/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Sep 2010 16:29:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>foucault</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Beyond Poker: Books n More]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[artificial intelligence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bluff]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[deception]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[game theory]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[poker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poker Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[tilt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[timing tells]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thinkingpoker.net/?p=5871</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Wired blog yesterday reported on a recent experiment in which robots &#8220;learned&#8221; deception autonomously, without specific instructions from their programmers: Two robots — one black and one red — were taught to play hide and seek. The black, hider, robot chose from three different hiding places, and the red, seeker, robot had to find [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Wired blog <a href="http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/09/robots-taught-how-to-deceive/?utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+wiredscience+%28Blog+-+Wired+Science%29&amp;utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher#ixzz0zWNFGza7">yesterday reported on a recent experiment</a> in which robots &#8220;learned&#8221; deception autonomously, without specific instructions from their programmers:</p>
<div>
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<blockquote><p>Two  robots — one black and one red  — were taught to play hide and seek.  The black, hider, robot chose  from three different hiding places, and  the red, seeker, robot had to  find him using clues left by knocked-over  coloured markers positioned  along the paths to the hiding places.</p>
<p>However, unbeknownst to the poor red seeker, the black robot had a <a href="http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2010-07/26/creepy-german-barthoc">trick  up its sleeve</a>.  Once it had passed the coloured markers, it shifted  direction and hid  in an entirely different location, leaving behind it a  false trail that  managed to fool the red robot in 75 percent of the 20  trials that the  researchers ran. The five failed trails resulted from  the black robots’ difficulty in knocking over the correct markers.</p></blockquote>
<p>The significant thing here is that the robots weren&#8217;t programmed to use a deceptive strategy. They &#8220;evolved&#8221; it on their own through a process resembling natural selection:</p>
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<div>
<blockquote><p>The  robots — soccer ball-sized assemblages of wheels, sensors and flashing  light signals, coordinated by a digital neural network — were placed by  their designers in an arena, with paper discs signifying “food” and  “poison” at opposite ends. Finding and staying beside the food earned  the robots points.</p>
<p>At first, the robots moved and emitted light randomly. But their  innocence didn’t last. After each iteration of the trial, researchers  picked the most successful robots, copied their digital brains and used  them to program a new robot generation, with a dash of random change  thrown in for mutation.</p>
<p>Soon the robots learned to follow the signals of others who’d  gathered at the food. But there wasn’t enough space for all of them to  feed, and the robots bumped and jostled for position. As before, only a  few made it through the bottleneck of selection. And before long, they’d  evolved to mute their signals, thus concealing their location.</p></blockquote>
<p>It seems more and more asinine to me every time I read about how computers will never be able to play poker as well as humans. The argument generally boils down to a claim that people are capable of higher-level, holistic reasoning that enables them to vary their play and also to pick up on exploitable tendencies of opponents better than a computer could.</p>
<p>It seems to me that especially with regard to online poker, where there aren&#8217;t so many subtle physical tells for a human to pick up on, a computer is in theory just as capable as a human of picking up all the relevant information. Why can&#8217;t a computer learn to recognize and adapt to signs of tilt in an opponent: quickened response time, increase in number and size of pots played, increased WTSD%, one or more large pots recently lost? Over time, why can&#8217;t a computer develop a profile of an opponent that recognizes that he is more or less likely to bluff after having recently failed in a big bluff? And surely computers are far more capable of randomness than are mere humans.</p>
<p>The really important thing is that this doesn&#8217;t all have to be programmed into the computer initially. The computer just needs to learn to collect <em>all</em> of the relevant data, i.e. not just individual betting lines but also things like timing, bet sizing, etc. Then it needs a way of searching for patterns in that data to make predictions that a player tends to open up his raising range after a few orbits of tight play or tends to bluff after losing a large pot. I really don&#8217;t see any reason why a computer couldn&#8217;t be better at all of this than a human player.</p>
<p>Of course if the human knows all of the things that the computer looks for, then he may be able to stay one step ahead. But that&#8217;s a pretty unfair advantage and would probably be true in a human vs. human match as well.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2009/08/real-life-decepticons-robots-learn-to-cheat/#ixzz0zWOLYPub"></a></div>
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