Posts Tagged ‘value bet’

My latest poker strategy article, Balance, addresses a pet peeve of mine that I see often in the tournament forums:

Balance is one of the most misunderstood concepts in tournament poker. Many players believe that playing in a balanced way matters only when dealing with players they encounter on a regular basis. In a tournament setting, where they expect to play a few hours at most with a given opponent, they see no reason to worry about balancing their ranges.

This logic gets it backwards. Balance matters more when playing against unknown opponents with unknown tendencies. It is the best way to play when you don’t know what to expect. After examining what exactly balanced play means, this article will consider situations in which it is and is not useful.

Hopefully this article helps to clarify a frequent point of misunderstanding. Please let me know what you think!

My latest poker strategy article, What Are You Afraid Of?, is now appearing in the July 2011 edition of the 2+2 Magazine. The article uses a single hand to look at a larger point about game theory and exploitability:

Being “underrepresented” or “too weak” are not bad things in and of themselves. And before acting on feelings like these, you should articulate exactly how they could end up costing money. In other words, what would your opponent need to do to take advantage of this “mistake” that you are considering?

I’m always curious to know what you think, so please read the full article and leave me a comment!

Someone e-mailed me this question recently, and as I began to compose an answer, it occurred to me that it could make for an interesting blog post:

Recently a friend of mine and I were batting around a question about the pros.

Essentially it came down to this:
“Do pros grinding online make more money from value bets, or from bluffs?”

I don’t want to go any further into our analysis, but I was wondering what you think.

In one sense, the answer is easy: value bets make more money than bluffs. Strong hands make more money than weak ones. It’s pretty rare that I win a guy’s whole stack on a bluff, but I do it all the time with value bets.

The real answer, though, is that your value never comes solely from one or the other. Here’s a simple demonstration:

You hold As Ks on a Qs Ts 8h 4d 2s board. There is $100 in the pot, and $100 left in the effective stacks. You shove, and your opponent calls 50% of the time. So, half the time you win $100, and half the time you win $200, for a final EV of $150.  Read the complete post...

Edit: Made a mistake in the original post. Villain did not have two pair, he had Aces with a kicker that didn’t play.

$5/$10 NLHE, $1100 effective stacks. Action folds to a decent TAG regular in the SB, he opens to $30, I make it $90 with AJo, he makes it $200, I call. Flop is AJ4 rainbow. He bets about $200, I call. Turn is an off-suit 6 7. He checks, I check. River is a 9, he checks, I shove something like $650 into the $800 pot, and he calls with A6s.

There are two major disadvantages to slowplaying that I think I can pretty well avoid in this situation:

1. Losing the Pot. Giving a free card risks improving your opponent to a better hand or letting a scare card fall that enables your opponent to bluff you out of the pot.

2. Losing Additional Bets. When your opponent has a second-best hand that can pay off multiple bets, slow-playing can cost you one or more bets. In big bet games, this is especially bad since the pot size grows geometrically. In other words, the bet that you miss is usually a lot bigger than the bet that you get.  Read the complete post...

This hand from the 2+2 high-stakes multi-table tournament forum got me thinking about what it means to be “at the top” of a polarized range. Here’s a quick summary, for those who can’t/won’t follow the link:

It’s a tournament, and blinds are 100/200. Hero raises to 475 UTG with KK, and good loose aggressive regular calls out of the SB. The flop comes Qd 4s 9d. SB checks, Hero bets 625, Villain calls.

The turn is the 4d, pairing the board and putting three diamonds out.  Both players check. (I don’t think it matters much, because the turn decision isn’t the important thing here, but Hero has the Kd.)

The river is the 4h, giving Hero Kings full of Fours. Villain checks, Hero bets 1400 into a 2300 pot, and Villain shoves for 11080. Hero has him covered.

Most of the forum seemed to think this was a call, and in many cases not a particularly close one. To me, it’s a clear fold.

Not everyone articulated it this way, but the general sense seemed to be that a pair of K’s is at the top of Hero’s range, and that folding hands at the top of your range isn’t what you do against a LAG.  Read the complete post...

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (6 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($1027)
MP ($980)
CO ($1442.40)
Hero (Button) ($1471.25)
SB ($1000)
BB ($1336)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, J
UTG bets $35, MP calls $35, CO calls $35, Hero raises to $165, 4 folds, CO calls $130

Flop: ($415) K, 9, 9 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($415) 5 (2 players)
CO bets $130, Hero calls $130

River: ($675) 8 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $376, CO raises to $1147.40 (All-In), Hero calls $771.40

Total pot: $2969.80 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had J, J (two pair, Jacks and nines).
CO had K, A (two pair, Kings and nines).
Outcome: CO won $2966.80

I’m not a big fan of my river bet to begin with, and if he’s capable of this, it’s awful. I just didn’t expect him to check any big hands on the river, since it looks so much like I’m just trying to pot control/show my hand down cheaply. In other words, I don’t think he can expect me to bet the river too often.

This one was against a really awful player:

No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (2 handed) – Hold’em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) ($1705.40)
SB ($240.80)  Read the complete post...

Small Stakes No-Limit Hold ‘em
by Ed Miller, Sunny Mehta, and Matt Flynn

Professional No Limit Hold ‘Em, Volume 1 (PNLHE) is one of my all-time favorite poker books and the one that I recommend to anyone looking to get started to the game. I eagerly awaited the publication of Volume 2, which was rumored to deal with short-handed games and more advanced concepts, and mourned its loss when its authors parted ways with Two Plus Two Publishing.

Ed Miller, Sunny Mehta, and Matt Flynn ultimately self-published the book now known as Small Stakes No-Limit Hold ‘Em (SSNL), and it’s even better than I’d hoped.

Read the full review including my “Two-Minute Recommendation” in the Book Reviews Section of the site.

Read the full review

One of my students asked me about this hand today, and I thought it was pretty interesting. My first instinct was that the check-raise was thin but good. Q8 is pretty much the top of Hero’s range here, and this looks like such a weird line that I doubt Villain folds anything he was betting for value.

The question, then, is how many worse hands Villain plays like this for value. After discussing the hand for a while, we decided there actually weren’t many. AT+ mostly 3-bets pre-flop, 98 and 68 probably aren’t betting the turn, 96 needs to be discounted for lack of a flop raise, and does A7 go for two streets of value? I think it ought to, but most players probably chicken out and check the river or bet smaller.

So I think this is a shove against really good value betters but a call against pretty much any 2/4 player.

No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (4 handed) – Hold’em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($620.90)
Hero (SB) ($458.70)
BB ($440)
UTG ($359)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, 8
2 folds, Hero bets $10, BB calls $8

Flop: ($24) 9, A, 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $16, BB calls $16

Turn: ($56) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $40, Hero calls $40  Read the complete post...