What’s Your Play? Facing an Overbet on River Results

Thanks for all the comments on What’s Your Play? Facing an Overbet on River. Time for Some Game Theory It’s probably impossible to find a game theoretically optimal betting strategy for me on the flop, and likewise a calling strategy for Villain, as there are more than two players in the game. The river, however, is a different situation. It’s quite likely that I’m playing a capped range after checking the turn (which may be sufficient reason not to check). If – and this won’t necessarily be the case, we’ll return to that question – Villain arrives at the river … Read more…

What’s Your Play? Flush With Redraw Results

Thanks to everyone who participated in What’s Your Play? Flush With Redraw. I folded, and I don’t think it’s close. The short explanation is #TheyAlwaysHaveIt. Here’s a longer one: Is This a Bluff-Catcher? The first question to ask is whether Villain could be raising worse for value. If yes, he’s either making a huge mistake, or you should not fold. Here, I think it’s unlikely that worse raises for value. The only lower flushes possible are 52dd and 42dd, which are unlikely in a raised pot, and in any event would be awfully ambitious raises (the “huge mistake” exception. Some … Read more…

What’s Your Play? Flush With Redraw

Edit: Fixed pot size on turn. Playing $5/$10 No-Limit at Maryland Live, a game that does not participate in the Bad Beat Jackpot and other promotions. I don’t have a lot of experience with either Villain, but there’s a good chance they know who I am (a lot of people at MDL, many of whom I’ve never spoken to, have turned out to be familiar with the podcast, blog, or Twitter account). At the very least, I expect they perceive me as a smart player who won’t take anything off of the table in terms of bluffs, hero calls, thin … Read more…

Rate Our Play: Blind Battle Results

Thanks to everyone who participated in Rate Our Play: Blind Battle. I hope you benefited from thinking about this spot. Blind battles and other spots where players have very wide ranges are tricky because, if you just try to apply heuristics and experience from other situations, you’re going to get them very wrong. Simple rules like “no pair means no showdown value” don’t apply. Here are my thoughts on each of our decisions: DP1: A6o is a tough hand to play, even when only a single opponent with a random hand remains. Raising denies the BB some equity and reduces … Read more…

Rate Our Play: Blind Battle

It’s called Rate Our Play. I’m going to post a hand featuring multiple decisions points for both myself and my opponent(s). Your job will be to comment on any mistakes (or choices that surprised you in a good way) that you think either of us made. I’ll participate in the comments as I can and return later in the week to post my own thoughts about the most controversial points. The Game: $200 6-max WCOOP Event (Sunday Warm-Up Replacement). Blinds 1600/3200/400. Villain has 145K, Hero has 175K. Reads/History: Assume each player knows the other to be a successful and experienced tournament … Read more…

That Tiny Turn Bet

I knew that my small turn bet in the recent Rate Our Play post would be controversial, and although I had reasons for doing it, they weren’t particularly exploitive, and I hadn’t actually used GTORB to look at the EV of betting larger. It turns out that even if you give Hero the option to make larger bets (75% of pot or all in), he doesn’t use those options. Of course that could be dependent on my assumptions about both players’ ranges, which are that Hero has a lot of Ax in his pre-flop range and is never check-raising the … Read more…

Rate Our Play Results

Thanks to everyone who participated in the inaugural Rate Our Play. I’ll take the blame for the low attendance, as I haven’t been actively blogging lately. That should change once WCOOP gets underway. DP1: Uncontroversial. DP2: Uncontroversial at this stack depth. With deeper stacks, this is a reasonable BB vs BN 3-betting candidate, but with 100BB a 3-bet will just isolate the stronger part of Villain’s range without the opportunity to put pressure on him with draws. DP3: I don’t see a case for a leading range. This is a really static board, which means protection isn’t much of a concern, … Read more…

Rate Our Play

In an effort to blog a bit more often (about topics other than new podcasts), I’m going to try out a new sort of post that hopefully will be similar to but less time-consuming (for me) than a multi-street What’s Your Play?. It’s called Rate Our Play. I’m going to post a hand featuring multiple decisions points for both myself and my opponent(s). Your job will be to comment on any mistakes (or choices that surprised you in a good way) that you think either of us made. I’ll participate in the comments as I can and return later in … Read more…