Thanks to everyone who commented on my recent post “You Tell Me: How’d We Do?“. I’ll address a couple of the great questions and comments here and share my own thoughts.
1. The pre-flop 3-bet. I’m certainly not doing this everytime I have J9s, but my 3-betting range is going to include a mix of hands that will shove to a 4-bet (which will itself be a mix of value and bluff hands) and hands that will fold to a 4-bet. When choosing hands for the latter category, I’m considering two factors: how will the hand play post-flop if called, and would it be more profitable just to call pre-flop rather than to 3-bet. In this case, I’m pretty sure folding is better than calling. And J9s is going to play a lot better post-flop than is a “better” hand like AJo. The point I want to emphasize is that his high 4-bet % is not a reason to never 3-bet him without a hand that can 5-bet. Certainly I should do it less than I would against someone who folds more often, but unless he 4-bets 100% of the time, my range should include some bluffs. And as long as he calls at least some of the time (and his Call 3-Bet stat is certainly relevant, as some of you pointed out, though I didn’t consult it at the time), then it matters how my hand will play post-flop when called.
2. Villain’s flop call. Raising wouldn’t be awful, but stacks are pretty bad for it. Unless he expects me to 3-bet-fold the flop often, which would be awfully optimistic, he’s going to lose a lot of equity when I continue to a raise. He’ll often a bare flush draw, or, if I happen to have a bigger flush draw, nothing but pair outs. With the nut draw, his equity is a lot better with a raise, though he’s also got showdown value to consider. On the whole, given stacks and position, I like his call. There’s still room for him to bluff later.
3. My turn check-raise. As several of you correctly pointed out, overpairs are unlikely for him. That means I can play my top pair like the nuts. Kinda. Although he’s not going to have a better hand often, he’s also far less likely to have a second best hand than if I actually had the nuts or close to it. Even with the likely best hand, I don’t think I can just go bet-bet-bet and expect to get paid off. I’m not folding, but I’m more concerned about inducing bluffs than I would be with more absolute hand strength.
I agree that the sizing is poor, and I think this is the biggest mistake of the hand. I thought that a flush draw was his most likely holding, but I didn’t sufficiently consider his overcard outs. I did think that I wouldn’t get paid by many worse hands if I just check-shoved, which is probably true, but not a good enough reason. Unless he’s going to bluff a ton on the river, it’s probably better for me to end the hand now.
4. His river check. If he doesn’t value-shove this, my check-raise sizing gets a little better. I’m still not sure how I feel about this one.
Let me say first that my check is mandatory. If he thinks he has the best hand, even if it’s Ace-high, he’s just going to stick it in on the turn. There’s very little reason for him to call with anything that he thinks is ahead. That means that if I shove the river, he only calls if the Q improves him.
I’m probably checking 100% of my non-bluff range on the river (though that’s less clearly correct if he checks back a Q), so that doesn’t give him much information. However, my turn check may help him to eliminate some stronger hands from my range. As I hinted above, I probably would look to bet again with some of my monsters. Then again, I don’t think he expects me to check-raise the turn so thinly for value. Given that, it’s a very reasonable check.
I was calling, though, and if I’m check-raising stuff like J9 on the turn, his river decision is a lot closer. It’s still probably a good check, though.
Thanks again to everyone who responded, I was really impressed with the thoroughness of your comments and the depth of your thinking.