Edit: On further reflection, I actually think his call is OK. He needs barely 33% equity, as he probably isn’t behind the SB caller, and my range is likely weighted towards the strong draws, against which he is a slight favorite, than the strong made hands that have him in bad shape.
A little over an hour into the PLO8 FTOPS Knock-Out event. I’ve been getting a lot of crap but also playing conservatively and have just a hair over the 5K starting chips. Blinds are 50/100, I raise UTG+1 with Ac Jd 4c 2h. MP2 calls and BB calls.
Flop comes Kc 8d 7c, giving me nut flush draw, overcard, and nut low draw with counterfeit protection. I bet 650 into 950, both players call. Turn is the Qs, and I have just about a pot-sized bet left in my stack. I shove, and the MP guy calls me with AA54 for an overpair, a gutshot, and a shitty low draw.
| Hand | Pot equity | Scoops | Wins Hi | Ties Hi | Wins Lo | Ties Lo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ac4cJd2h | 44.38% | 11 | 12 | 0 | 14 | 3 |
| AsAh5d4d | 55.62% | 15 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
But of course against a few other hands in my range he doesn’t fare so well:
| Hand | Pot equity | Scoops | Wins Hi | Ties Hi | Wins Lo | Ties Lo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AcKsQc2h | 77.50% | 28 | 31 | 0 | 14 | 0 |
| AsAh5d4d | 22.50% | 6 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| Hand | Pot equity | Scoops | Wins Hi | Ties Hi | Wins Lo | Ties Lo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AcKdKh2h | 88.75% | 32 | 35 | 0 | 14 | 0 |
| AsAh5d4d | 11.25% | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 0 |