Thanks to everyone who commented on What’s Your Play? Suited Broadway on the Turn.
Pre-flop and on the flop, I argued that Hero had the opportunity, thanks to a bet sizing tell, to get more credit than he deserved on a 3-bet/c-bet and consequently could make these plays with a wide range. Essentially picking up on that tell (if it was in fact a tell) bought Hero some extra fold equity pre-flop and on the flop. Now, though, that fold equity may well be used up, and Soner asks a good question: “I am still having a hard time imagining what a tight aggressive and borderline nitty player would raise UTG2 preflop, call a three bet and call a flop continuation bet on a Ks 8d 6d board. This play doesn’t seem tight aggressive at all to me unless he flopped a monster and knows you will three barrel. Also, you mentioned other players will give hero more credit than he deserves. If that is the case, and UTG2 thinks you have a very strong hand what is he calling you with?”
That’s not to say Villain will never fold the turn. There’s a good chance medium pocket pairs like TT are still in range (if they aren’t in the category of hands he’d raise larger) as well as possibly 98s or 87s, and all of these probably fold if they don’t have flush draws. Maybe he’d even fold KJ or KT without a diamond.
Plus, Hero has plenty of flushes in his range that he’d like to bet. All of that argues for having a bluffing range on the turn. The key question, though, is not whether Hero should ever bluff the turn, but whether this particular hand belongs in his betting range or his checking range?
Bryan Gour’s comment raises a lot of good points, but this one in particular is worth noticing: “I expect the top of his range to be check calling and check raising, and all of his 99/TT/QQ with a diamond to have a pretty low calling frequency.” I would go even further and say that, with stacks being what they are, there’s a good chance that Villain’s calling range will be quite narrow, maybe only pairs with flush draws and the occasional slowplayed nuts, and that he’ll usually raise or fold.
The fact that betting so rarely results in Hero seeing the river card suggests that a draw with substantial equity vs Villain’s folding range might not be the best bluffing candidate, because Hero won’t get to realize that equity. Betting a more polarized range of flushes and hands with little to no equity is probably the better strategy.