Thanks to everyone who’s participated so far in the Hand of the Week. To recap the action so far:
Blinds are 50/100, Villain has about 20K (starting stack), and I have about 25K. Only six players (including both blinds) have claimed their seats so far. I have black Aces first to act and open to 300.
Villain calls from the SB, and everyone else folds.
Flop (700 in pot) Jc 8c 6h. Villain checks. Hero?
Betting the flop is the obvious play, and I don’t think it’s bad per se, but I think it’s worth asking, if you don’t check this hand, what strong hand would you ever check on the flop? Pocket Jacks? Those three combos aren’t really enough to balance your checking range, especially as this isn’t a particularly good spot to bet hands like AK, KQ, or 99.
Many players, even non-elite ones, are rightly reluctant to give you credit for a strong hand after you check the flop. Of course the turn card will have some scrambling effect on hand values, in that an A, K, or Q will turn some of your weaker checking hands into relatively strong hands, but on many turn cards your opponent can bluff, value bet, and call you down with relative abandon.
As several people pointed out, getting check-raised on the flop is also not a pleasant experience. I probably wouldn’t fold, but it drastically reduces your expected value in the hand, as does betting, getting called, and then seeing one of quite a few turn cards.
There are some runouts where you can bet AA three times for value, but they are in the minority. One very common line after betting the flop will be checking back the turn and then bluff-catching on the river. I think people are inclined to think of that as a “win” because they know the river call is profitable, they get to showdown, etc. But really bluff-catching is often a barely better than neutral-EV option.
Unlike with slightly weaker overpair or top pair hands, there’s little protection value in betting. Most hands that could beat AA thanks to a single card are not folding to a flop bet anyway and will put money into the pot on any turn. Commenters mostly focused on what could go wrong as a result of a flop check (what if Villain improves to a flush or straight or two-pair? what if it’s a scare card and you can’t get paid by a Jack?) but ignore what could go right.
Most of those cards will improve or scare some part of your opponent’s range, but they’ll also embolden some other part. So yes, a K is bad if you were up against KJ or QJ, but it’s good if you were up against KQ or KT that was going to check-fold the flop and now will pay off multiple bets.
Granted, concerns about balance should take a back seat against opponents who aren’t going to bluff/bluff-catch/value bet optimally on future streets. However, checking the flop has a hidden benefit versus these opponents as well. Many of them will reveal a lot of information with their sizing and behavior on future streets, if you put them in the driver’s seat. If you bet the flop and your opponent check-calls, you don’t learn a lot from that, as there are lots of different hands that will play that way. Then, as discussed, you’ll end up checking quite a few turn cards as a result.
However, if you check back the flop and force your opponent to bet into you on the turn, he may reveal quite a bit about what he has and how he feels about it, opening up the possibility of raising for value later, making a hero fold, or even the outside chance of turning your hand into a bluff.
I did in fact check the flop. I’ll post the turn momentarily.