Full Tilt Poker, $5/$10 NL Hold’em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com – Hand History Converter
Hero (BTN): $2,517
SB: $1,000
BB: $1,888.75
UTG: $5,702.90
CO: $1,017
Pre-Flop: A
T dealt to Hero (BTN)
3 folds, Hero raises to $30, SB raises to $90, Hero calls $60
Flop: ($180) K A
K
(2 Players)
SB bets $180, Hero calls $180
Turn: ($540) K (2 Players)
SB bets $540, Hero folds
Results: $540 Pot ($3 Rake)
SB mucked and WON $537 (+$267 NET)
I knew nothing about this player, but I don’t really ever expect a random to be bluffing here. So basically I’m either chopping or losing to quads/Aces full, and a chop isn’t that much more likely.
Curious: why don’t you expect a random player with Ax to bluff in that situation?
Not sure what you mean. I do think Ax in his range. There are two Aces and one K in the deck, which makes it close, if I assume that he always plays Ax this way. Mix in the possibility of AA and the fact that I think Kx is more likely than any given combo of Ax, and I found a fold.
Oh, I understand that. I was specifically referring to this part of your original post:
“I knew nothing about this player, but I don’t really ever expect a random to be bluffing here.”
I guess this means that you were weighing between a semi-bluff (Ax) and quads, but you had ruled out a total bluff (say, QQ)? And if so, why?
Most people, even a lot of regulars, are simply too timid to make a huge double barrel bluff with air. It’s also significant here that this turn bet was much bigger than it needed to be. A player who was going to bluff here would probably bet 60-80% of the pot at most. Hitting the pot button again is something overexcited donks do. Given what I said before about people being afraid to bluff, I definitely don’t think a random is going to be cavalier about betting more than necessary even if he were bluffing.