Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Johannes Levemann is the head of Research and Development for the Snowie Group one of the creators of PokerSnowie, a neural net that has over the course of several years supposedly learned to play a nearly unexploitable no-limit hold ’em game. We … Read full post
I’ve been toying around with this situation for a while, and although I want to retain some measure of caution simply because I have a history of making mistakes with this sort of thing, I’m pretty sure I’ve determined that the optimal bluffing frequency for Hero doesn’t change even if … Read full post
I know I promised earlier this week that I’d follow-up with more on optimal multi-street bluffing frequency. It proved to be a more thorny problem than I anticipated, and while I still don’t have a definitive answer, you’ll get a chance to hear me discuss the problem with two very … Read full post
Thanks for all the comments on What’s Your Play? Worst Card to Bluff, and sorry that I’ve been slow in getting this results post up. It’s possibly a result of the fact that I’ve been driving back across the country this week and not online much, and possibly a matter … Read full post
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Olivier Busquet, AKA high-stakes heads up sit-and-go boss livb112, joins us from his poker refugee pad in Toronto. With remarkable candor, he talks about his frustrations and his strategy for staying on top of his chosen format. You can follow @OlivierBusquet on … Read full post
Thanks to everyone who commented on last week’s “What’s Your Play? Four Flush on the River” post.
Calling
I want to begin my analysis by quickly ruling out calling as an option. Virtually every hand Villain would have called to the river now beats us: middle pair … Read full post
Q: My question is about calling UTG open raise (say 3.5X) on the button with small pairs (say 22 – 55). Unless UTG will stack off with one pair it doesn’t seem profitable to set mine. Say UTG has AA but will only lose 40 in a single raised pot, … Read full post
My latest poker strategy article, Surviving a Multi-Day Tournament, is now appearing in the April 2012 edition of Two Plus Two Magazine. The intention of this article is to get beyond cliches about “valuing your tournament life” to some in-depth advice about how, when, and why survival should factor … Read full post
My latest poker strategy article, Balance, addresses a pet peeve of mine that I see often in the tournament forums:
… Read full postBalance is one of the most misunderstood concepts in tournament poker. Many players believe that playing in a balanced way matters only when dealing with players they encounter on
My latest poker strategy article, What Are You Afraid Of?, is now appearing in the July 2011 edition of the 2+2 Magazine. The article uses a single hand to look at a larger point about game theory and exploitability:
… Read full postBeing “underrepresented” or “too weak” are not bad things in
Now that the WSOP is in full-swing, many players will be taking a shot or two at events well above their usual buy-in levels. This can be a great opportunity, because the $1000 and $1500 NLHE events attract hundreds of players weaker than what you’d see in an average $20 … Read full post
This hand is a good example of being aware of your own range and what your hand will look like to Villain. I had recently folded to a triple barrel from this same Villain, who generally exhibits very aggressive tendencies. I had no idea whether that history would make him … Read full post
Edit: As several commenters pointed out, I screwed this up in multiple ways. I’m getting ready to start up a session, but I’ll be making a new post with a corrected equation soon. In the meantime, you can disregard this post unless you’re curious to see whether you can spot … Read full post
The first video in my new four-part series about HUD-based decision making and using statistics to exploit opponents has just gone live at Poker Savvy Plus. In conjunction with that, I’ve got a twist on the old “What’s Your Play?” series. In this hand, calling or folding are your … Read full post
Yesterday’s post mentioned the “honor system” method that is becoming increasingly popular as an enforcement mechanism on public transportation. The idea is that both weekly/monthly passes and single use tickets are sold by machines at the train stations, but in most cases passengers will never need to use their ticket … Read full post
A friend recently sent me a link to an article entitled “Big Game Theory” in Discover magazine. It’s about the phenomenon of physicists getting interested in, and having success at, poker. Author Jennifer Oullette cites Michael Binger, Michael Piper, Liv Boeree, and Marcel Vonk as examples and offers … Read full post
The Wired blog yesterday reported on a recent experiment in which robots “learned” deception autonomously, without specific instructions from their programmers:
Two robots — one black and one red — were taught to play hide and seek. The black, hider, robot chose from three different hiding places, and the red,
I’ve had some deep runs lately in the Saturday $300 6-max, so I was looking forward to this event. Unfortunately, it didn’t really go my way. I lost a big pot (though not my stack) with AJ vs. AQ on a AJ7Q9 board in a 3-bet pot. My bust-out hand … Read full post
V
erlyn Klinkenborg, who regularly contributes interesting and well-written little essays to the New York Times Op-Ed page, writes today about four-way stops and what a surprisingly successful tidbit of human cooperation they are:
… Read full postWhat a four-way stop expresses is the equality of the drivers who meet there. It doesn’t
The player that I ended up sucking out on yesterday was the reason I was sitting in this 40/80 game. I didn’t recognize his name, so I sat in and started playing a bit. It quickly became apparent that he was one of the most loose and aggressive players I’d … Read full post
My tournaments results have been pretty good the last few months, culminating most recently in two PCA seats and a win in the FTP $300 Saturday 6-Max. I attribute this improvement to a disciplined effort to avoid bringing the aggressive play needed to win in high-stakes cash games over to … Read full post
Robert Wright’s Nonzero is not a poker book. I picked it up because it claimed to apply game theory to human evolution, both biological and cultural, and to offer a sweeping and prophetic account of humanity’s history and future. Yes, that’s a pretty ambitious goal, and the author acknowledges as … Read full post
Small Stakes No-Limit Hold ’em
by Ed Miller, Sunny Mehta, and Matt Flynn
Professional No Limit Hold ‘Em, Volume 1 (PNLHE) is one of my all-time favorite poker books and the one that I recommend to anyone looking to get started to the game. I eagerly awaited the … Read full post
Even though I’m too sloppy/lazy/uneducated to work out the details of complicated problems, I’m quite interested in the mathematics of poker. I feel like I do have a broad grasp of the game theory that underlies many situations and can use that to aid in my decision-making. Recently, I’ve been … Read full post
OK, this has sparked a lot of interest among commenters, so I think I will offer a few of my own thoughts on the hand after all. In terms of what durrrr may have been thinking and why he was successful, I don’t have a lot to add to the … Read full post
Full Tilt Poker, $5/$10 NL Hold’em Cash Game, 2 Players
LeggoPoker.com – Hand History Converter
Hero (SB): $2,434.50
BB: $3,954.50
Pre-Flop: T
K dealt to Hero (SB)
Hero raises to $30, BB raises to $100, Hero raises to $255, BB calls $155
Flop: ($510) 3 A
2… Read full post
I like this line a lot in this spot, but not against the table fish:
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $20.00 BB (6 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP ($2000)
CO ($1850)
Button ($1329)
SB ($8366)
Hero (BB) ($2197)
UTG ($2274)
Preflop: Hero is BB with Q
, … Read full post
My latest poker strategy article, Creative Bet Sizing, is now appearing in the December edition of 2+2 Internet Magazine. The article examines underbetting and overbetting as examples of how to add unconventional plays into your arsenal. Here’s an excerpt from the section on overbetting the pot:
… Read full postBig bets are
Eugene asked a great question about my recent post, A Random Call, which reminded me that I’d meant to post this hand as well. It happened not long after I snapped off a 2x pot river bluff with top pair, weak kicker. This was against the same opponent but … Read full post
I am a strong advocate of exploitive poker strategy. That is, I believe that you ought to tailor your play to exploit specific mistakes that you believe your opponents will make, even if this means that you are yourself open to exploitation. By definition, the more skillful player will do … Read full post