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Carlos Welch was one of our most popular guests, and he’s back to talk about his new life as a professional poker player. Find out why he didn’t move to Jamaica, what he’s doing instead, and how he’s dealing with a downswing. Plus a bonus strategy hand! Scroll to the bottom of this thread to see some great pictures of Carlos spreading around his Vegas winnings.
Timestamps
0:31 – Hello and welcome
4:11 – Strategy: Playing an overpair on a paired board
22:45 – Interview: Carlos Welch
Strategy
*You can also scroll down my recent results section to see me spreading around my Vegas winnings to the guys I play poker against as well.*
One thing that we didnt get to talk about in this episode due to time constraints (aka me bitching about a mediocre downswing and a badly played hand) is some of my #nitcast strategies. We can talk about some of them here.
The number one thing I did recently to slash my expenses by more than 50% is move into a extended stay efficiency studio apartment. I only pay $650 a month and this includes all the standard utilities and amenities. It’s perfect for people like me who travel a lot and do not need much space.
The second best thing I did was to buy a small motorcycle that gets over 50 mpg. I bought it used of course and it basically paid for itself with the gas savings.
And last but not least, I save on my food and health care costs by becoming a raw vegan (well, at least 5 days a week) and doing frequent fasts. I spend less than $20 a week on food, I’m down 35 lbs since Vegas, and I have no more pollen allergies.
Given that this is called the Thinking Poker podcast, let’s get back to that for a second.
The notion that I am one of this audience’s favorite guests is both humbling and baffling. All the love the poker community has shown me is highly motivating…and apparently being on with Andrew and Nate leads to some run good because I chopped my local league tournament heads up tonight for $1200. This gives me some points in a race for a 2014 WSOP Main Event seat as well. Now what a story that would be.
Hi Carlos. I have listened to both interviews and, to be brutally honest, I haven’t heard anything that makes me think you are capable of beating any games other than small stakes tournaments/SNGs, either online or live (these are the only games I can beat, as well!). Basically games where you can bumhunt with little risk of getting exploited.
This doesn’t mean that you can’t play higher, but you really need someone who is going to stake you and mentor you. The way you have learned to live frugally is impressive. You seem very well grounded, you don’t sound like you have a big ego and I would think you would learn quickly if you had someone to teach (and stake) you. As you have shown an ability to live cheaply, maybe you could find someone to help you on the basis of you having a very small piece of yourself, in the tournaments you were staked in?
I think Andrew may underestimate how difficult your transition to cash games would be. I think that while the majority of good cash game players can play tournaments reasonably well, there are many fewer tournament players who also play a good cash game. If you can learn cash, that’s probably better though.
Good luck! There are plenty of people who will listen to the podcast and read this, who are capable of both teaching you a lot and staking you. I hope one of them takes a chance on you.
A couple of sections of the interview were a bit worrying, to be fair. Not understanding how small your expectation was in the charity tournaments was one. Also, the figure you gave for villain’s button aggression, in the hand discussion, doesn’t leave me with a great deal of confidence that you are using your HUD competently.
I hope there is time for a 3rd interview with you, at some point in the future.
Oh yeah, forgot about the HUD stat. The way it’s set up is it breaks down the percentage of hands that are opened by each position. The 17% figure I mentioned means that 17% of villain’s opens came from the button, not that he opened 17% of his button hands. This is why game flow is so important. You cant just depend on a HUD. I’d estimate that he was opening probably 30-40% of his buttons since he was a reg and maybe as high as 40-50% of them since he was noticeably aggro.
Carlos I will recommend live games.
Forget about online cash games.
There are plenty of sharks in cash games.
Some sharks hunt with cool gadgets.
I assume that poker bots are big part of the online games(micros,mid) now and you probably did not realize it yet.
Poker software and particularly poker bots have come a long way in the last few years.
I assume that several A.I. algorithms developed with no intention of using in real-money online poker games sipped into real-money space too.
In the past most of bots creators,investors and users were not great players.
Lately this trend has changed.
There are much less development opportunities.
The investors are winning online poker pros and new specs requirements are top notch refinement of already existing frameworks.
I knew this from my limited experience as freelancer.
Anyway I was very surprised when I checking a list of participants for The 2013 Annual Computer Poker Competition – Heads-up No-limit Texas Hold’em.
Team Name: hugh
Team Leader: Stan Sulsky
Team Members: Stan Sulsky, Ben Sulsky
Affiliation: Independent, University of Toronto
Location: New York NY, Toronto
Technique:
We attempt to deduce our opponents’ strategy from it’s actions, and apply expert tactics to exploit that strategy. On later streets this is done by exploring the remaining game tree. On early streets it is based on heuristics.
http://www.computerpokercompetition.org/index.php/competitions/participants/93-participants-2013?showall=&start=2
Bring on the bots! I am ready for DOOMSDAY!
Cool interview, Carlos. I find that listening to rap on the drive to the casino is practically part of my poker A-game warmup routine. It gets me in the mood to compete and boosts my confidence, which helps me play better. Biggie’s more confrontational works are great for this, not only because he’s the best ever, but because so many of the themes map readily onto poker. “Gimme the Loot” is a great reminder to actively seek out opportunities to steal pots, while “Niggas Bleed” reminds me that no matter who’s at the table, they’re still just human poker players susceptible to misreads, errors in thought process, tilt, and variance (“we can both pull burners, make the motherfuckin’ beef cook” ==> “i can overbet rip it in your face and we can let luck rather than your alleged skill advantage decide who wins”).
Some of Pac’s more chip-on-my-shoulder songs are good for pre-game purposes, too. The best example I can think of is “Only God Can Judge Me,” mainly for the line “I’d rather die like a man, than live like a coward” which I take as inspiration to pull the trigger in spots I thought were +EV but high risk.
I try not to listen to rap while playing, but I still do occasionally. Unlike with acoustic music (or some rock), the lyrics in rap grab my attention, which makes me pay worse attention to the table. Also, if the rap is too aggro, it can make me a little too reckless in-game. In-game, I try to stick to more sentimental and/or laid-back rap. Man, if I got a refund on all the tournaments I’ve spazzed out of while listening to Chronic 2001 I’d have so much money.
I cant say overall who the best all around rapper ever is, but I am confident it isn’t 2pac or Biggie. I can say that 2pac is my favorite and it’s not even close. I agree he definitely had songs for all types of moods which seem to directly relate to poker. One of my favorites is “Heavy In The Game” where he says “Quit trying to be an O.G. and pay your dues.” I needed to hear that and took it to mean I need to quit trying to play the 109s just because I am (more like “was” now) rolled for them and come up through the stakes in a proper manner. I used to love hearing the hook to Bun B’s song where it says “I gotta keep on pushin” LOL. That was perfect for pwning the bubble in SNGs.
Ok, last one. Sorry guys, I absolutely love Hip Hop. The second verse to this song is so perfect for making a comeback after being crippled down to a short stack that listening to it while playing a tournament has to be +EV.
The Roots “The Fire”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aHRLXvvLO_U
[Verse 2: Black Thought]
One love. One game. One desire.
One flame. One bonfire. Let it burn higher
I never show signs of fatigue or turn tired
Cause I’m the definition of tragedy turned triumph
It’s David and Goliath. I made it to the eye of the storm
Feeling torn like they fed me to the lions
Before my time start to wind down like the Mayans
I’ll show ’em how I got the grind down like a science
It sounds like a riot on hush, it’s so quiet
The only thing I hear is my heart
I’m inspired by the challenge
That I find myself standing eye to eye with
To move like a wise warrior and not a coward
You can’t escape the history that you were meant to make
That’s why the highest victory is what I’m meant to take
You came to celebrate, I came to sever greats
I hate losing. I refuse to make the same mistakes
*I meant how can that not give you chills as a poker player?*
Hey Carlos, good luck with everything man,
few points I noted that you have probably already considered but just in case.
-Stars will allow you to get in alot more volume, especially at mid stakes which is where you will get a good balance of field size and player toughness. I wouldnt expect to be facing heaps of awesome regs until you get into the 109s etc.
-it is also much more flexible in withdrawals and deposits.
– although Jamaica sounds cool, an important consideration should be the country’s time zone, ie NZ and AUS have the major tournaments beginning at 4am and 6am half the year and 2am and 4am the other half. so checking that you wont be grinding hours that dont suit you is important.
-I think its also worth considering travel distance and costs, especially if you are planning to return home often.
-Another consideration is the tournament structure, stars is extremely superior to merge in this sense. which leads to deeper stacked play and a larger edge. (from what I’ve seen on merge sweats, midstakes especially are pretty meh in structure)
-you can get your volume way up without drastically increasing your playing hours on stars/ftp.
I dont think grinding charity tournaments i really a viable option for long, but certainly a decent time filler until you get something planned out
(below is extreme generalizations and possibly wrong, so take it with a grain of salt.)
regarding the hand I think that in general c/j lines are used primarily with draws that have good equity because
a) it generates fold equity v marginal hands and thin value bets.
b) seeing the next card isnt detrimental for our hand
c) we induce bluffs from floats and whiffs which then fold
because of this people often protect them by c/j some nutted hands, but these primarily include hands that arent especially vulnerable or contain some backdoor draws or blocker value.
when i generally look at the atypical regs range for c/j turn when the SPR is ok for either that or tripling (as is the case here) I often feel that the c/j range contains more draws and is inherently weaker than the tripling range as it requires regs to be willing to check the turn with nutted/drawing/and vulnerable value hands, the 3rd of which i think isnt always the case and is an unbalance you often see.
I echo the sentiment that you should look into getting coached as it will speed up the learning process and get you where you want to end up quicker.
all the best mate
I definitely plan to get coached as soon as I can put together a decent hand history to be reviewed. I cant remember the last time I had a deep run in something online, but coaching is definitely in my near future.
Carlos,
Good luck with the drop down in stakes. Hopefully you’ll rise back up a stronger player, with a bankroll to match!
It’s refreshing to hear someone admit that they didn’t think of a certain line or option when analysing a hand. I believe the first step towards improving in poker is to see your mistake, understand why it is one, and resolve to work on it to reduce the chance of it happening again. I never met a poker player who didn’t need to improve some area of their game.
Carlos,
I’ve enjoyed both of your interviews so far, and look forward to seeing how your progressing. I would like to suggest Florida as a destination to play Live Tournaments and cash games to you. I have 4 card rooms within 30 minutes of my house in Tampa. One 10 minutes away actually. There are a large variety of tournaments and cash games to play, and it’s not far from Atlanta.. A few of the card rooms offer either low rake or no rake tournaments which are of great value to play. I primarily play cash games as a second job, and the occasional tournament if the structure and rake are acceptable.
Good luck at the tables!
Joe
I am definitely going to Canada for a least a week or two in December (Canada in December? WTF is wrong with me?) to spend some time with a friend who is an accomplished player. If all goes well, I may go that route.
If I hate the weather, I will come back and maybe try Tampa (which is the destination I had in mind when I researched Florida) or Jamaica. Both of these are in my current time zone and close to home.
Carlos/Nate/Andrew
Great interview!
Not agreeing with the first comment. Carlos has or will have the the ability to beat higher stakes tourneys if he keeps progressing.
I’m a winning player and I’ve supported myself via poker for several years, mostly through cash games, and I didn’t totally agree with Andrew and Nate’s analysis of the hand where you had KT.
I don’t think AT and AJ are great hands to call on the board if you had been the one on the button and you got check raised all in on turn, however, I’m not as experienced at higher stakes tourneys so I’m not claiming to be correct.
I perceived that small turn bet by villain to be a weak hand, and only rarely would it be a straight. I thought it was a bad bet and your shove was a reasonable play (shove looks strong), as was calling. I just don’t see him betting that small with a hand that has you beat. Villain played the hand horribly.
Thanks for the kind words. I’ll keep working to improve.
Hi Carlos,
First, I really enjoyed the interview and wish you the best in your poker career.
As someone who is also playing on US facing sites right now (in my case just for fun), I wanted to comment on the difficulty of US sites right now compared to PokerStars, etc.
Prior to Black Friday, I was playing mostly on FullTilt – mostly cash – and was able to beat the games up to .10/.25 pretty solidly, although I typically lost some back at higher stakes. Shortly after Black Friday, I deposited a small amount on BCP and have played on Merge and Winning Poker (just wanted to be able to play online – I know it’s risky but it’s a small amount I can easily afford to lose). Even with a 29% rackback, I’ve been unable to move up past .05/.10 and my bankroll is still sitting around the small amount that I originally deposited.
I realize this is only 1 micro-stakes players experience, but it’s my belief that the current US facing sites are much more difficult to beat than PokerStars & FullTilt currently (outside US). Most winning players money comes from the worst competition, and right now a very small percentage of the worst US players are playing online, and they are not lasting very long. With the difficultly and risk of getting money on, most fish are not going to even bother. I’d bet that a large % of the US fish pool doesn’t even know online poker still exists in the US.
Admittedly, I’m not a great player, but I do study and try to improve my game. Based on my experience I would think the typical small to mid stakes grinder is going to have a very difficult time making a living currently on US sites. Would love to hear other perspectives, I’m sure there are some listeners out there who are beating US online games easily, but I doubt many.
Just wanted to give that perspective because you guys were discussing the level of play on US sites. Here’s to hoping for more legal online poker in the US!
Brandon
Hey Carlos,
I listened to both your interviews and really enjoyed hearing your stories. Off the back of the last podcast I listened to a couple of albums by the artists you recommended. If you had a few more recommendations (already planning on checking out Distant Relatives) they would be great to here.
Good luck with it all!
cbeak
cbeak, I am SO SO SO happy that you liked the stuff I recommended. Here is one of the Distant Relatives songs. I particularly like Nas’s verse on My Generation
My Generation
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tk8pF9e1ww8
Can you blame my generation
Subject to gentrification
Depicting their frustration
Over ill instrumentation
Cause music is the way to convey to you what I’m facing
Placing my life in front of your eye for your observation
Now if you can’t relate then maybe you are too complacent
Athletes today are scared to make Muhammad Ali statements
What’s up with tomorrow?
Will you lead? Will you follow?
Improve you values
Education is real power
I reach ’em like Bono
So get rid of your self sorrow
Add some bravado
Get wealthy like Wells Fargo
It’s true, that I am you
And I am proof
Surviving through
We do what we gotta do
Yo we can break the cycle
Let nobody lie to you
Then maybe put our sons and our daughters in private school
Cause there’s a mission we gotta finish before we leave
This generation is destined to do historic deeds
This verse sums up why I love Hip Hop so much and how it motivates me to get off my ass and lead by example.
For more examples of the kind of rap music that I recommend (complete with youtube links), check out this thread.
https://www.tournamentpokeredge.com/forum/off-topic/tpe-music-thread/page-4/
I would love to discuss more Hip Hop with you guys any time.
Hey Carlos!
I really did like the stuff you shared. For example, this line in The Future by Sha Stimuli has stayed with me over the last couple of days, “Can I kill the line between driven content and satisfied?” And, among other more meaningful things on J. Cole’s Born Sinner album, the comedy sample at the top of Runaway is really funny.
In the spirit of sharing your recommendations, would you mind copying the content of the tpe post you linked to in your last post and pasting it here, please? I’m not a tpe member so can’t (I think) access it. =(
Thanks,
cbeak
Oh my bad cbeak. I forget it wasn’t open. Obviously I highly recommend a membership, but here are some of the songs I recommend. I tried to make one big reply but Andrew’s site accused me of being “spammy” so I’ll break it up to see if it will accept it that way.
3D Na’Tee – Hi Industry
“I’m young and I’m black and smarter than you people thought.
Just cause I came from poverty does not mean I can be bought.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HBN6FVxGfo
Hopsin – Ill Mind of Hopsin 5
“They’re only in it for cheese and any eye witness can see
They’re purposely making the innocent weak
My existence on this planet’s for you. I ain’t only here to benefit me.
Yo, we need to make a change while there’s still time.
It IS hard and sometimes I struggle trying to reveal mine
I can guide you if you feel blind.
I just need you to be willing to journey into my ill mind.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hRVOOwFNp5U
Macklemore and Ryan Lewis – Make The Money (*almost every word can be adapted to my poker journey*)
“This is my job and I will not quit it.
Pulled me out the depths when I thought I was finished.
Yeah I questioned if I could go the distance.
That’s just the work regardless of who’s listening.
Listen, see I was meant to be a warrior.
Fight something amongst me. Leave here victorious.
Classroom of kids or a venue performing?
If I’d done it for the money I’d have been a fucking lawyer”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R14mrUtRBP8
Stic.man (from Dead Prez) – Champion
“The secret is that power exists in all people
The struggle is a sifu if you learn to let it teach you
The key to, the universe is right within our reaches
But we can’t win the game if we’re standing in the bleachers”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-jsuiGhIMc
Dee-1 – Shut up and Grind
“I’ve seen so many curve balls, I done grown to expect em
People messing up the mission. I moved on and I left em
Learned the lesson. No second guessing. F all that stressing.
I’ll leave em on the block before I let em block my blessing.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJ19Ra3ZnZo
Wax – My Future is a Big Wide Open Space (#nitcast anthem for me right here)
“I don’t think about the money and the power.
I know I’ll never get 20 in an hour.
I try not to worry and scour.
I stop and I smell the proverbial flowers.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5Yd-1Hq5-s
Anderson Scott – PCP
“I’m a landmine. You’re a landfill.
When you rap, every damsel stands still.
We move cops like pepper spray whenever the records play.
You aint gotta speculate on which rappers can regulate.
Set it straight. The reefer that I’m puffing when I medicate.
Got my eyes looking like I permanently meditate.
I got David Blaine slang that make it look like I can levitate.
I drop shit while you hesitate to defecate.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uJGSDclwyQ
Cambatta – Zeigeist Haze
“Original man with a cynical plan
To be a God and hold the world in the mist of my hand.
I’m taking my chromosomes and I’m switching the strands.
Til I’m stronger than Arnold and smarter than kid’s in Japan.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UnECTO1wDKY
Carlos, when you describe how you reacted after that hand was done this scene came to mind: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-SK6gbhuEXQ
Yeah. It was kinda like that.
This is the one that comes to mind for me. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3X60mrYO1UU
I have a question about the hand for anyone still following this thread. Knowing villian is likely to call a 3b from the button with hands like J8s, does that make a 3b with KTo in the BB better, or does it tilt the needle towards calling?
I would say it’s a stronger argument for a 3B because he’s calling with hands that are hoping to get a lot of implied odds and it’s better to get the stack to pot ration low against that type of range. Plus he’s more likely to have dominated kings and tens in his range that he’ll call with too. But I’m not sure.
I like a 3bet better because we have 2 things going against us 1. a hand that doesn’t play well post and 2. we are OOP. The 3bet at least gives us the betting impetus. This along with a stronger starting range gets us closer to being on equal footing with villain in terms of post flop advantages.