From the Desk of the Poker Philosopher

Generally when we think of manipulating pot size, we think of playing pot control when we have a hand that we want to showdown cheaply or trying to inflate the pot when we have a monster. But there are times when you might want to build the pot in anticipation of a bluff on a later street.

For example, let's say you raise 76 on the button and the BB calls. The flop comes AKx, and you decide that unless he check-raises the flop, it would be a good time to double barrel him. He'll fold a lot of better hands on the flop and even more on the turn. What's the correct bet size for the flop?

Strange as it may seem, even though you are bluffing, you want to minimize your fold equity on the flop. This is because you know you are going to fire a second barrel on the turn. Thus, any time your opponent calls the flop with a hand that will check-fold the turn, even if that hand is better than yours (which it pretty much always will be), then you gain. You should choose the bet size that will get the most money out of your opponent's range for check-calling the flop and check-folding the turn.

Here's another example from a hand I played at a 3/6 deep table today:

I opened to $21 with 5s 4s on the button, and the SB raised to $66. We were $1200 deep, and he'd been 3-betting me a lot, so I called with intention of messing with him on a lot of flops.

The flop was Js 9s 9c, which was pretty good for my purposes. It was tough for my opponent to hit, and even if he did call me, I had outs. With $138 in the pot, stacks were a little awkward for me to shove over a flop bet, but that was my play. Then my opponent made a small bet of just $78. It was now out of the question for me to shove, the risk/reward just wasn't right, but I wanted to get the money in on the flop, with me making the last bet, of course.

So I decided to min-raise to $156. If my opponent did choose to call with a pair, there was a decent chance that I could take the pot away later or hit my flush. But if he had nothing, which I figured he would most of the time, then I thought he would either fold or 3-bet bluff me. Sure enough, he clicked it back to $234. Now, the pot was plenty juicy, and I moved all in with my flush draw. He folded, and I took down a nicer pot than I would have gotten if I'd just tried to maximize my fold equity on my first bluff raise.

Labels: 3-bet, 4-bet, 6-max, bet sizing, bluff, deep stacks, double barrel, NLHE, semi-bluff, session review

Stumble It!

When you're trying to add new elements to your game and new tricks to your arsenal, you may end up making some plays that are, in a vaccuum, negative EV. However, the overall process of experimentation and trying to open up your game going to be very profitable for you in the long run. Here are three things that you probably don't do often enough and should make an effort to incorporate into your game, even if they cost you a little money in the short run as you learn how to execute them effectively:

1. Turn a hand with showdown value into a bluff.

2. Plan a triple barrel bluff from the flop and then execute it.

3. Check-raise bluff the river.

The most educational and least expensive way to start trying this stuff is to think it through ahead of time. Don't just sit down and start triple barreling at every opportunity to see when it works (hint: it will stop working very quickly). Instead, think it through ahead of time. Think about what boards and what type of opponents will be best for these plays, and then try to execute them at the right times.

Labels: bluff, NLHE, poker, poker strategy, triple barrel

Stumble It!

Here's a pretty interesting spot where I made what might be called a pre-emptive blocking bet:

Full Tilt Poker, $5/$10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: $2,184
BB: $2,000
UTG: $1,000
MP: $1,000
CO: $2,413
Hero (BTN): $4,150

Pre-Flop: K K dealt to Hero (BTN)
2 folds, CO raises to $35, Hero raises to $120, 2 folds, CO raises to $320, Hero calls $200

Flop: ($655) A T 6 (2 Players)
CO checks, Hero bets $333, CO folds

Results: $655 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero mucked K K and WON $652 (+$332 NET)


First off, let me cover the pre-flop. CO was a decent regular, definitely capable of 4-betting light. However, we didn't have a sufficiently aggressive history that I could expect to get action if I 5-bet him. Calling is very clearly best, then, to maintain some deception about my range.

When he checks the flop as the pre-flop aggressor, I'm putting him on one of three things, from least to most likely:

1) A slowplayed monster- With AA, this is definitely a good time to check; however, that's a small part of his range, checking with TT is a lot less good (because I could well have top pair), and it's not a guarantee he would do it;

2) Air that is giving up- I'd expect him to fire once when an Ace flops if he has nothing, but then again people do tend to play pretty straight-forwardly in 4-bet pots;

3) An underpair playing for pot control- With QQ or JJ, he's definitely checking this flop to show down cheaply and induce bluffs.

4) Top pair playing for pot control/value- With something like AJ, he has a very strong hand that still probably does not want to play for stacks. By checking the flop, he can try to keep the pot smaller, induce bluffs, and get value on a later street from hands that might fold to a flop bet.


This may seem like a bad bet, then. After all, I'm only expecting a narrow category of worse hands to call, and overall I'm expecting to be behind his calling range. I do think I should have bet a little less, but in all likelihood, I'm going to have to pay off at least one bet to hands that are beating me anyway. Unless he does something crazy like overbet shove, I'm going to call at least one street. I think that betting now is the best way to get value from the occasional underpair, as a bet on a later street is going to look stronger than a flop stab.

Plus, this lets me control the size of the bet that I pay off to his Ax and deter the occasional double barrel bluff that I can't pay off. If he check-calls the flop, I'll be very comfortable folding if he leads out on the turn, or if he leads out on the river after the turn checks through. However, if I check now, I'd probably call the turn and fold the river. That means I'd pay off a turn bet of like $450-$500, often to Ax, and then fold to a river bet, which might occasionally be a bluff.

In looking over this now, I think I could accomplish all of this with a slightly smaller bet, probably in the $250-$300 range. But nevertheless, I think it's an interesting spot where position and narrowly defined ranges in a 4-bet pot greatly influence my play.

Labels: 3-bet, 4-bet, 6-max, blocking bet, bluff, deep stacks, double barrel, NLHE, poker, poker strategy, short-handed

Stumble It!

Stumble It!

The finale of my trip report from the 2008 WSOP is now appearing in the October issue of 2+2 Internet Magazine. I must say, getting down to the final tables of this huge tournament is a pretty thrilling experience, at once exciting and surreal:

"On Day 6 of the main event, the Amazon Room was empty. Nine tables were collected in one corner of the immense room, 80% of which was utterly vacant. A single cocktail waiter patrolled between tables. Floor staff and press chatted idly as they waited for something to happen. Tensile cord stretched an oval around the 79 remaining players, so that every table was on the perimeter and observers could easily watch any of them."

If you haven't read them already, you should probably start with Part 1 and Part 2.

Labels: narrative, personal, poker, poker strategy, Rio, tournament, trip report, wsop

Stumble It!

Despite a pretty rough WCOOP (or maybe because of- it did compel me to put in a lot of hours), September was a solid month. Even after some of those long sessions, though, I barely averaged twenty hours a week. I just don't think I'm going to hit my goal of averaging 25 hours per week. Thanks to the WSOP, though, I've already hit my monetary goal for the year, so I guess that's alright. then again, I crossed that line back in July as well but ended up sliding pretty substantially back under it and only recently dug myself back out. Nothing's guaranteed, of course, but I'm feeling pretty good at the moment.

I played about 28K hands of NLHE ring games online, and despite losing money at the highest stakes I was playing (10/20), I was at 8 BB/100 for the month, so no complaints there.

There are no major tournament series coming up this month, and I'm starting to have less responsbility with the BDL, so hopefully this will be a good opportunity to grind some higher stakes cash games. I've pretty much obtained my goal of becoming a winning regular at 10/20, so with a little work, I think I can definitely be there by the end of the year.

Labels: NLHE, personal, poker, WCOOP, wsop

Stumble It!

Stumble It!