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Overbetting
I define an overbet as any amount larger than the size of the pot. I don’t really have all-in bets from short-stacked players in mind here, as their overbets are something of a necessity since smaller bets would usually commit them to the pot anyway. Obviously overbetting is not an option in pot-limit games, but in no-limit it is a powerful and dramatically under-utilized tool.
Big bets are simply harder to play against than smaller bets. Any edge that you have over an opponent, whether it be position, better cards, or superior skill, is magnified by pot and bet size. This doesn’t mean that every bet you make should be all in. But if you believe that an opponent will make comparable mistakes whether you bet 70% of pot or 125% of pot, the latter option will be far more profitable.
A good rule of thumb about overbetting is that the larger your bet, the more likely it is to induce a raise-or-fold response from your opponent and the less likely it is to be simply called. How exactly you use that information will depend on factors like your hand, your opponent, and the size of the effective stacks. Here are a few possibilities to get you thinking:
Value Betting- Overbetting is most commonly used to induce a call. To the extent that overbetting is employed at all in most games today, it is generally done with a big hand on the river. This makes sense, since you should usually have a big hand when you voluntarily put money in the pot. But it also demonstrates a failure to build the pot well on earlier streets and an inability to balance one’s range properly.
Though a little trickier, overbetting for value on earlier streets is a perfectly viable option. The catch is that opponents may not be as inclined to call a big bet on the turn as they would be on the river, since they still have to fear another big bet from you on the river. Thus, overbetting for value on earlier streets will be most useful in situations where you believe your opponent to have a reasonably strong hand and you have a hand far stronger than what you think he puts you on.
For example, in a $5/$10 NLHE game with $1000 effective stacks, you open for $30 from the small blind with K8s and your opponent in the big blind calls. The flop comes 8s 8d Js. You bet $50, and he calls. Your opponent perceives you as very aggressive. He is capable of bluff raising but not bluff calling, so his call tells you that he probably paired the Jack or holds a hand like Ace-high or a low pocket pair that can beat your bluffs.
The turn brings the 5d. This is a great spot to overbet for value. You know your opponent has something, you know he thinks you have nothing, it’s obvious to both of you that he will not have trips or better very often, and there are a lot of draws on the board that you could be semi-bluffing or that he might semi-bluff raise if he puts you on a bluff. Most importantly, you have a hand that wants to play for stacks but a lot of money left behind. Even a pot-sized bet on the turn would put only $480 in the pot, leaving $760 in the effective stacks on the river. You could pot the turn and then shove $760 into a $480 pot on the river. However, slightly overbetting the pot now will enable you to get all the money with only a slight overbet on the river.
Suppose you bet $200 into the $160 pot. If your opponent calls, the pot will be $560, and $720 will remain for you to shove on the river.
If he’s capable of thinking on this level, your opponent will also realize that your range for raising pre-flop and betting flop is so wide that he can’t go folding pairs just because you overbet the turn. If he were to fold everything less than trips on the turn, then you could overbet bluff him every time and rob him blind.
Importantly, your hand is also big enough to welcome a raise. If you held something like 82, your big bet would not be so effective because more of your opponent’s calling or raising hands would beat you. With K8, however, you can get paid off not only by bluff-catchers but by some of your opponent’s legitimately strong hands as well.
Bluffing- Most players do occasionally overbet for value, but if you aren’t also overbet bluffing, then your range is not balanced and you can easily be exploited by observant opponents who will fold almost everything when your overbet. Against such opponents, you must also overbet bluff in similar spots.
Suppose that in the example above, you held QT instead of K8. Based on your opponent’s call, you know he has something, but trips are still a small portion of his range. Because of all the draws on the board, you think he is not going to give up easily even with just Ace-high to a normal bet. Your only hope of getting your opponent to fold will be an overbet that represents a narrow but very strong range.
The choice of QT for this example is significant. The gutshot straight draw gives you some equity if you are called by a pair, and in fact the Q and T may be outs for you as well. But your draw is not so good that you lose a lot of value if forced off of it by a raise, since your opponent will very often have you in bad shape with trips if he raises.
Against calling stations and less observant opponents, you can get away with overbetting only for value. But against better players, you must balance your range with occasional overbet bluffs as well to prevent exploitation. When doing so, it is nice to have a semi-bluff that provides you with some additional value if your large bet is called.
Bluff Inducing- This is the hardest type of overbet to pull off and the least useful, since many of your opponents will not often bluff-raise an overbet. But against opponents who know you are capable of overbet bluffing, you may occasionally overbet with a big hand for the purpose of inducing a bluff-raise.
Suppose that in a $5/$10 NLHE game with $2000 effective stacks, you raise to $35 with a pair of Kings one off the button, your opponent calls on the button, and the blinds fold. The flop comes 6s 6d 2s, you bet $65, and your opponent calls.
The turn brings the 8d. You are virtually certain that you have the best hand, but there is only $215 in the pot and $1900 remaining in your stacks. Your opponent could have called the flop with almost anything: Ace-high, a gutshot, a pocket pair, or virtually anything else that he decided to float on an innocuous board with the intention of stealing the pot on a later street. However, if you keep betting, even his best pocket pairs probably won’t raise for value, making it difficult for you to make a dent in his stack despite your monster holding.
Since you already suspect that your opponent may be calling with the intention of bluffing, you could try to check-raise. That would induce one more bet of $150-$200 from him, but he would surely give up if raised even if he has something like 76. If you were instead to overbet for $250 or so, your opponent might get suspicious. He knows that you know he probably has nothing and probably thinks you have nothing, too. Thus, your overbet might induce a bluff raise of $650-$800. He’ll still be giving up when you call or raise, but you’ll have won a much larger bluff.