John previously appeared on Episode 64 and Episode 132. He’s also recommended a lot of great guests to use over the years, including Dick Carson.

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello, welcome, and strategy
14:45 – John The Lawyer

Links

High Rollers: A History of Gambling
The Fear of 13
The Staircase
Serial

I took two “gambles” in the $1000, putting the money in with hands I usually would not because of the bounties. The first seemed pretty straight-forward:

PokerStars – $500+$500+$50|50/100 Ante 10 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

SB: 151.59 BB (VPIP: 27.03, PFR: 18.92, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 37)
Hero (BB): 114.91 BB
UTG: 46.2 BB (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
UTG+1: 23.84 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 21.43, 3Bet Preflop: 9.68, Hands: 70)
MP: 184.24 BB (VPIP: 27.88, PFR: 12.12, 3Bet Preflop: 8.75, Hands: 165)
MP+1: 51.98 BB (VPIP: 13.58, PFR: 8.64, 3Bet Preflop: 1.33, Hands: 163)
MP+2: 36.25 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
CO: 87.32 BB (VPIP: 27.66, PFR: 16.43, 3Bet Preflop: 3.23, Hands: 141)
BTN: 45.75 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)

9 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.4 BB) Hero has Td 9d
fold, fold, fold, fold, MP+2 raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 1.5 BB, Hero raises to 8 BB, MP+2 raises to 36.15 BB and is all-in, fold, Hero calls 28.15 BB

Flop : (75.2 BB, 2 players) 2h 5d Qc

Turn : (75.2 BB, 2 players) 7s

River : (75.2 BB, 2 players) Qd

Hero shows Td 9d (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 38%, Flop 27%, Turn 14%)

MP+2 shows As Js (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 62%, Flop 73%, Turn 86%)

MP+2 wins 75.2 BB

The real question is whether to squeeze with the intention of calling in the first place. Once he shoves, calling needing just 37% equity even in the absence of the bounty is pretty trivial with a strong suited connector. Flatting pre-flop has some merit, and although I like having a shot at winning the pot immediately, my hand’s equity does hold up well in a multi-way pot, and I can also take a shot at Villain’s stack post-flop (as it happens, though, I may well have been bet off of a good bet of equity if I’d gone to the flop).

After the tournament, I took a walk and began to question this second call in my head. Then I crunched some numbers and it turns out to be a clear call:

PokerStars – $500+$500+$50|75/150 Ante 20 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP+1: 110.57 BB (VPIP: 27.06, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 13.33, Hands: 85)
Hero (MP+2): 38.44 BB
CO: 68.59 BB (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
BTN: 46.95 BB (VPIP: 32.20, PFR: 13.56, 3Bet Preflop: 5.45, Hands: 118)
SB: 149.75 BB (VPIP: 28.64, PFR: 13.15, 3Bet Preflop: 8.00, Hands: 213)
BB: 20.25 BB (VPIP: 12.86, PFR: 7.62, 3Bet Preflop: 1.03, Hands: 211)
UTG: 25.03 BB (VPIP: 23.33, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 30)
UTG+1: 58.2 BB (VPIP: 27.13, PFR: 15.51, 3Bet Preflop: 2.35, Hands: 189)
MP: 84.79 BB (VPIP: 32.14, PFR: 23.21, 3Bet Preflop: 6.90, Hands: 56)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.7 BB) Hero has 4d 4s
fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 2 BB, Hero calls 2 BB, fold, BTN calls 2 BB, fold, BB raises to 20.12 BB and is all-in, fold, Hero raises to 38.31 BB and is all-in, fold

Flop : (45.94 BB, 2 players) 2s Ts Qs

Turn : (45.94 BB, 2 players) Ks

River : (45.94 BB, 2 players) Jc

BTN mucks 7h 7d (One Pair, Sevens)
(Pre 0%, Flop 0%, Turn 0%)

BB shows Ad As (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 82%, Flop 93%, Turn 100%)

Hero shows 4d 4s (Flush, King High)
(Pre 18%, Flop 7%, Turn 0%)

BB wins 45.94 BB

Against {77+,KQs,KQo,ATs+,AJo+} it’s barely a fold even without the bounty. Tightening Villain’s range slightly by removing the KQo and KQs barely changes my equity at all, and pulling out the ATs and AJo makes a bit closer but still a call given the bounty. I really can’t imagine his range being any tighter than that.

Tomorrow is Big Antes at 8AM Pacific and then 6Max Shootout at 11AM, the latter of which is another I’m really looking forward to.

So lets say, you’re playing a SnG and you’re on the bubble and the average stack is about 10 BBs. It seems to me that you should be hands like AA, KK AK etc for value, but that your bluffing range should include more hands that are in good shape (as good as possible i guess) against those superior hands that he calls with. Does that makes sense? I’d love to hear your thoughts brother.. thanks!

A: Sorry I’m so slow in getting to your question. Then again, it’s a pretty easy one to answer yourself by playing around with PokerStove, so I’m not going to feel too bad about taking my time since I’m not your damn personal assistant!

Ahem, I think we got off on the wrong foot there. What I meant to say is that that’s an interesting question with some broader implications. Let’s start by playing around with PokerStove:

Vs a 5% Calling Range {88+,AJs+,KQs,AKo}

T9s   31%
64s   28%
K5o   25%
J8o   25%

Vs a 20% Calling Range {66+,A4s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo}

T9s   36%
64s   35%
K5o   35%
J8o   32%

Vs a 50% Calling Range {33+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J4s+,T6s+,96s+,86s+,76s,65s,A2o+,K5o+,Q7o+,J7o+,T7o+,98o}

T9s   44%
K5o   43%
J8o   40%
64s   37%

Vs a 100% Calling Range

T9s   54%
K5o   53%
J8o   51%
64s   41%

The only hand that changes value dramatically is 64s, a small gap-suited connector. The more premium hand of this type, T9s, has the best equity against both narrow and wide ranges. In fact the other three hands remain more or less the same relative to each other, with only 64s dropping off in relative value as Villain’s calling range gets wider.

One thing to take from this is that big cards matter more as ranges get wider. This is because one-pair and no-pair hands will win more often at showdown as Villain adds smaller, unpaired cards to his range.

The matchups that have the biggest influence on your equity are those where one of you dominates the other. When Villain’s range is very strong you never dominate him, so making straights and flushes matters more. When his range is wider, hands like K5 start to do some dominating, while 64s only gets dominated.

The suited connectors perform dramatically better against a very tight range, but the difference drops off quickly. Soon T9s, K5o, and J8 are within a few points of each other. The lesson here is that picking a good spot is generally more important than picking a good hand. There are reasons not to resteal with really junky hands, but finding a spot to resteal with good fold equity will probably affect your equity more than waiting around for a certain type of hand.

Hopefully that’s a little more than PokerStove alone would have told you (or perhaps did tell you, if you got fed up with my taking months to respond – sorry again!)

Do you have a question for the Thinking Poker Mailbag? Please leave it as a comment below!

A: Your caveat at the end there threw a wrench in my plans for building a post around what I think is an innovative idea for the popular no-limit hold ’em odds calculator. You see, I often recommend Poker Stove to my students as a hand reading aid. While playing online, you can make real-time use of the feature that graphically displays a hand range.

Start with the entire grid of possible starting hands highlighted. When you get involved in a pot, de-select all of the hand combinations that you believe your opponent would have folded pre-flop based on the action and his position. Continue to de-select combinations each time he takes an action.

This is what you should be doing in your head constantly. For many people, having something visible to manipulate is a good starting place. In particular, this exercise prevents you from re-introducing hands into your opponent’s range that you’ve previously ruled out. I often have students tell me on the flop that they think an opponent would have bet his flush draws but then they are afraid to value bet when the third flush card comes on the river. Their minds have a fear response on that river that blinds them to the hand-reading work that they’ve already done.

But that doesn’t really address your question, nor the needs of all my American readers who are no longer playing online (this seems an appropriate time to say that I’m thankful for all of you who continue to read the blog despite a dramatic decrease in your opportunities to play poker). So how can you use Poker Stove if you’re an exclusively live poker?

Detailed notes are the key. If you have an iPhone, there’s an app called Poker Live Notes that helps you record key information like your hole cards, the board cards, and the action on each street. Although I have an Android, I’m not familiar with any similar apps for that platform- please comment if you know of one! Of course the old-fashioned pad of paper method works, too.

Take particular note of pots where you got or considered getting all-in. When you get home from the casino, use Poker Stove to input what you believe to be realistic stacking off ranges for the Villain or Villains in question. Look at the equity that your hand had against those ranges- were you getting the right odds? What other hands that you could have held (i.e. that you would have played the same way up to that point) would have had better equity? The answers may surprise you, as draws sometimes have better equity than seemingly strong made hands.

With repetition, this exercise can build up good instincts to help you estimate your equity in real time and make tough decisions. I encourage you to make it part of your post-game routine. Thanks for the question and good luck at the live tables!

Do you have a question for the Thinking Poker Mailbag? Please leave it as a comment below!

“Interestingly, if Villain has a one-pair hand, he barely affects our equity at all. If we assume that the big blind has 87, then letting the middle position player stay in the pot with 65 costs us only about 3.5% equity. This is because unless Villain’s kicker dominates one of Hero’s pair outs (i.e., unless Villain has something like T7 or A6 that kills one of our outs), then he will rarely affect the outcome of the hand. Either Hero draws out to a hand that beats both of his opponents, or he does not improve, in which case he would have lost to the big blind whether or not the third player was in the pot.”

By all means, please let me know what you think of it!

I feel like it’s been happening a lot recently (though sometimes it’s ended well.)

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $20.00 BB (6 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
CO ($2000)
Button ($1189.50)
SB ($2014)
Hero (BB) ($2030)
UTG ($2429.50)
MP ($5521.95)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, A
1 fold, MP bets $60, 1 fold, Button raises to $185, SB raises to $440, Hero raises to $2030 (All-In), 1 fold, Button calls $1004.50 (All-In), SB calls $1574 (All-In)

Flop: ($5277.50) 10, 2, 4 (3 players, 3 all-in)

Turn: ($5277.50) K (3 players, 3 all-in)

River: ($5277.50) 3 (3 players, 3 all-in)

Total pot: $5277.50 | Rake: $3

Results:
Button had K, A (one pair, Kings).
SB had K, K (three of a kind, Kings).
Hero had A, A (one pair, Aces).
Outcome: SB won $5274.50

The thing is, I honestly believe the guy with KK can fold it pre-flop. Button was a loose passive fish, so that 3-bet is no joke. I put him on AK,JJ+. When SB 4-bets, I put him on AK,QQ+. That means I’m shoving KK+ and folding everything else, including AK and QQ. Even being generous with Button’s range, KK is a fold:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,908,089,568  games     2.713 secs   703,313,515  games/sec

equity     win                     tie           pots won           pots tied
Hand 0:     19.051%      13.80%     05.25%          263345400     100160068.00   { KK }
Hand 1:     64.100%      57.78%     06.32%         1102496616     120597052.00   { KK+ }
Hand 2:     16.849%      15.60%     01.25%          297689964      23800468.00   { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }

And that’s just for the main pot; his equity in the sidepot against me is far worse. Hope that doesn’t come across as sour grapes, I just thought it was interesting.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $20.00 BB (2 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($2060)
Hero (BB) ($2239)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9, 9
SB bets $60, Hero raises to $200, SB calls $140

Flop: ($400) J, 3, J (2 players)
Hero bets $244, SB raises to $520, Hero raises to $2039 (All-In), SB calls $1340 (All-In)

Turn: ($4120) 10 (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($4120) A (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $4120 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
SB had Q, J (three of a kind, Jacks).
Hero had 9, 9 (two pair, Jacks and nines).
Outcome: SB won $4119.50

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (2 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($3011)
Hero (BB) ($2010)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J, K
SB bets $30, Hero raises to $111, SB calls $81

Flop: ($222) 4, 4, 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $144, SB calls $144

Turn: ($510) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $355, SB raises to $850, Hero calls $495

River: ($2210) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, SB checks

Total pot: $2210 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
SB had J, A (three of a kind, fours).
Hero had J, K (three of a kind, fours).
Outcome: SB won $2209.50

Just look at hand 2 for a second. The results throw things off a bit, but let’s suppose Villain is planning on folding to a turn shove. If I shove with 99, he folds worse hands like AJ and it doesn’t matter what I had. When he does call, I am drawing to 2 outs. If I shove KJs, I apparently bluff him off some better hands and also I will usually have 8+ outs (though occasionally I’ll be drawing dead). Even without a flush draw, two big cards like AK is a better hand to shove than 99.