0:30 hello and welcome; nittin’ ain’t easy
17:27 a message from carlos welch
19:09 ed miller on poker’s 1%

Andy Bloch on “Visualizing an Opponent’s Range”

This is essentially what I’m visualizing as I play a hand: a little bubble floating over my opponent’s head that contains an ever-narrowing range of hands. In fact, I think may borrow this technique for a video or two of my own.

Last night, in the $300 rebuy FTOPS event, I was rolling along nicely and then fell off the wagon:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em Tournament, 170/340 Blinds 25 Ante (6 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB (t13511)
UTG (t19356)
MP (t20140)
CO (t18855)
Button (t12236)
Hero (SB) (t19919)
Hero’s M: 30.18

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8, K
4 folds, Hero bets t1020, BB calls t680

Flop: (t2190) 9, 2, 7 (2 players)
Hero bets t1333, BB raises to t3125, Hero raises to t18874 (All-In), BB calls t9341 (All-In)

Turn: (t27122) 2 (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t27122) A (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: t27122

Results:
Hero had 8, K (one pair, twos).
BB had A, 9 (two pair, Aces and nines).
Outcome: BB won t27122

This is just such a perfect spot for a bluff raise on the flop (I have a wide range, this is a tough flop for either of us to hit, and the stack sizes don’t give me many options even if I don’t believe him). Although I was new to the table and didn’t recognize his screenname, I did have some reason to think he was capable of making plays: he 3-bet me on his button at the first opportunity.

When dealing with an essentially unknown villain, though, shoving any two is not the best way to proceed. I can minimize exploitability by bluff shoving hands that will have the best equity vs. his calling range: draws, hands that paired the board, and even two overcards. Shoving something as weak as K8 makes me easily exploitable by a strategy this guy may well be employing, which is only raising when he has a hand good enough to call a shove. And naturally in a spot where he ought to be raising a huge range he has managed to flop top pair top kicker. AKDHAKLSFHSKLFHASFKH

…because sometimes, you aren’t bluffing:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $20.00 BB (2 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($14268.50)
Hero (SB) ($4179.50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7, Q
Hero bets $60, BB calls $40

Flop: ($120) K, J, J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $77, BB calls $77

Turn: ($274) 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($274) 2 (2 players)
BB bets $210, Hero calls $210

Total pot: $694 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
Hero had 7, Q (one pair, Jacks).
BB had Q, 9 (one pair, Jacks).
Outcome: BB won $693.50

Although I didn’t recognize his name, this guy played very well, and it didn’t take me long to quit him. He’d been making a lot of good, thin value check-raises on dry flops like this, and he very rarely folded them. Thus, I thought his flop call represented either very marginal showdown value or a float with the intention of bluffing the river. Turns out it was both, which is really as it should be. I think he doesn’t turn Ax into a bluff on the river, which is why I call with Q-high, but I think this is exactly the right way for him to play Q9.

Naturally, Gates and the officer tell slightly different stories, but the general consensus seems to be that both overreacted. Gates, understandably upset by being accused of breaking into his own home, called the officer a racist and, to some extent, refused to cooperate. In all likelihood, simply stepping outside and explaining the situation would have prevented any escalation.

The officer could have ignored the comments and left after identifying Gates as the legitimate occupant of the home. Instead, he chose to escalate the situation by arresting him for “disorderly conduct”

The incident offers fuel to both sides of the racial divide. To some, it looks like blatant racial profiling, an upstanding black citizen treated like a common criminal by a racist white cop. To others, Gates is an overeducated black liberal playing the race card, looking for racist motives behind a simple misunderstanding.

Admittedly, I’m more inclined to one of those camps than the other. Also, Gates is an honorary member of Board of the National Association for Urban Debate Leagues, a cause which is near and dear to my heart. So I can’t claim total objectivity here.

That said, I’ve thought a lot about the incident, and I do think I have an interesting take on it. Just as a poker hand can sometimes look different when considered in the larger context of a match between two players, with all of the metagame considerations that that entails, I saw the Gates arrest in a different light when considering it strategically and as one among many encounters between a police officer and a black man (or actually any citizen, though I do think race gives such an interaction a particular context). I know it sounds weird, but bear with me.

My work in public education has given me the opportunity both to learn from young black men who have experienced racial profiling and police brutality and also to offer advice to other young black men about how they ought to respond to such situations. My understanding is that platitudes like “know your rights” are at best worthless and at worst dangerous. I once saw a class presentation by several young men, Hispanic in this case, about your rights when dealing with police. They’d done their homework and gave a nice little explanation of probable cause, consensual searches, and the like.

Afterwards, I asked one of them whether either had actually had the opportunity to assert his rights in a real-life situation. His face darkened and he looked away from me. When pressed, he told me he was once stopped by two white police officers based on what he believed was racial profiling. He cooperated and answered their questions, and they were about to leave without writing him a ticket or searching his car. Then he asked for their names and badge numbers, at which point they escorted him into a nearby alley and roughed him up.

My point is that although there are supposed to be limits on police power and checks against abuses of this power, many of those who interact with the police are not actually in a position to assert their rights. Naturally, the police as a whole have an interest in maintaining their power and discouraging tactics that challenge it or that would limit their options. Thus, individual police officers engage in acts of retaliation not only because they are individually racist or on a power trip but as part of a larger strategy to intimidate would-be challengers. Among many young black men, even those who have not directly experienced police brutality themselves, there is a belief that if one attempts to assert one’s rights during an encounter with the police, he risks provoking a violent response.

What does all of this have to do with poker? It reminds me of situations where I have all the power. Say I raise UTG, the BB calls, and the flop comes AK9. Regardless of my hand, it’s pretty likely that I’m going to win the pot. I have position, I have the betting impetus, and I have by far the stronger range on this flop. My cards are probably best, but even if they aren’t, I’ll usually bluff my way through.

There are two ways my opponent can try to combat this. He can make some thin call downs, though that will often end up being painful for him, or he can slowplay some big hands and occasionally show up with unexpected strength in a situation where I’m using to having the power.

Any time the police interact with a suspect, particularly a minority one, they are accustomed to having the power. They have plenty of legitimate authority, and, when they need it, they’ve got intimidation and brute force on their side as well. The average suspect can attempt to assert his rights, but he plays a dangerous game in doing so.

What I’m saying is that among black men encountering the police, Henry Louis Gates, Jr. is the pocket Aces, the rare citizen who actually has the upper hand in a confrontation with the police. Unlike the majority of black men who find themselves questioned by a police officer, he is wealthy, well-connected, and well-respected. He pointed out the racism inherent in the situation (more in that in a moment), and when the officer knowingly arrested him in his home, it drew national headlines. The police department quickly dropped the charges, the Mayor of Cambridge condemned the arrest, and even the President chimed in to say that the officer “acted stupidly.” Imagine the shitstorm that would have fallen on the officer had he decided to rough Gates up and accuse him of resisting arrest.

I do think Gates was mistaken to label the individual officer a racist, though. Like Gates’ own, the officer’s actions and reactions were largely determined for him. The whole situation was set into motion by a neighbor who called the police after seeing two black men attempting to force open the door of an expensive home in a largely white neighborhood. It’s hard to say for sure, but I wonder whether the call would have been made had Gates and his driver been white. Sadly, it may actually be a sign of progress that the white women did not recognize her neighbor. Forty years ago, it’s hard to imagine a black man living in an affluent white neighborhood without the whole town being well aware of it.

In any event, the officer had no choice but to respond to the report of a break-in, and, upon responding, to speak with the individual inside of the home. I don’t believe he would have turned around and left had he seen a white man inside instead.

Still, whether the officer himself was influenced by race, the situation as a whole clearly was. It is unfortunate that such situations as arise, but as President Obama also noted, it is not uncommon. The vast majority of the time, it is the police who have the upper hand. My advice to my students is always to cooperate and be respectful to the police officer, no matter how clearly they feel they have been targeted because of their race. I take no joy in counseling them to swallow their price and do nothing to combat racism, but at least during the encounter, I believe there is very little that they can safely do.

Gates, on the other hand, is the rare black man who can speak up. The officer is unlikely to retaliate severely against him, and if he does, it will provoke outrage nationwide. Imagine the shitstorm that would have rained down on him had he decided to rough Gates up and accuse him of resisting arrest. The officer, executing his authority in a seemingly routine situation, ran into the nuts.

Both Gates and the officer acted brashly and in ways that did not clearly benefit either of them individually. I think it’s a mistake to say that either overreacted though. On the officer’s part, the arrest was part of a larger strategy to protect police authority and discourage those who attempt to limit it by asserting their rights. On Gates’ part, it was part of a larger strategy to discourage police harassment. Even if their actions don’t appear optimal when considered in a vacuum, they take on new significance as part of a larger strategy. Gates’ “overreaction” may have created some hassle for him personally that could have been avoided, but it also brought national attention to an issue that, even in the “Age of Obama”, still merits discussion.