Timestamps

0:30 hello
3:07 danny sprung (featuring strategy)

Strategy

1st hand after 1st break, I have Red Kings. I raise UTG, and am 3 bet by a straightforward player. We are 100BB deep at this point. I call.

Flop T63 Rainbow, we both check.

Turn is Jd, bringing backdoor diamond draw. I bet 1/2 pot and Villain raised.

_________

I open EP, Villain 3-bets, and I flat call AKdd.

The flop was a spectacular Kh4d2d, I checked, Villain continued, and I made a very big check raise.

Bloch discussed Full Tilt Poker and Black Friday at length with Diamond Flush Poker. We discussed the subject, and The Lederer Files, with Matt Parvis on Episode 7.

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome
11:48 – Strategy
34:40 – Andy Bloch

Timestamps

0:30 hello
23:50 strat
45:32 interview

Strategy

Our strategy discussion is a follow-up to Nate’s analysis of Phil Ivey’s bustout hand from the 2018 WSOP Main Event on Episode 264.

Our first interview with Clayton was Episode 74. We discussed his 96th place finish in the 2015 Main Event on Episode 145. And in 2017, we talked about how he prepares for the WSOP on Episode 216.

Timestamps

0:30 – hello
25:25 – strat

Strategy

Sorry, you’re on your own. I’m on vacation!

In the introduction, Andrew chats with Josh Nixon about playing live poker for the first time and with Eric Keppler about making Day 3 of the WSOP Main Event for the second time.

Timestamps

0:30 Hello and welcome
27:35 Barny

Timestamps

0:30 hello
10:56 strat

Strategy Hand 1

On the bubble, CO (16K) opens to 5k. Hero calls T9dd in the BB.
Flop (13K) AQJd. Hero checks, Villain bets 5k, Hero calls.
Turn (23K) 6. Both check.
River (23) 3. Hero shoves for 6K, Villain folds.

Strategy Hand 2

Blinds 5K/10K/1K. SB (500K) open limps, Hero (1.2M) raises to 30K with AdQh, SB calls
Flop (68K) 542cc. SB checks, Hero bets 20K, Villain raises to 75K, Hero calls.
Turn Qs. SB bets 135K, Hero shoves 270K more, SB calls A3.

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome
34:50 – Strategy

0:30 Hello & Welcome
54:53 Strategy

Timestamps

0:30 – NOT hello and welcome
52:33 – Strategy

Strategy Hand 1

Blinds are 600-1200 with a 100 ante, and we have 24,500 in our stack pre-flop (so 20BB). SB completes, and I look down at KcKd. Villain’s stack is 24,000. Hero checks.

Pot (3100) Effective Stacks (22,700)

Flop is: 9s4d3c

Villain leads for 2000. Hero raises to 4700. Villain shoves for 20,700. We have to call 16,000 to win 30,500.

Strategy Hand 2

I am in the button. 3 limpers to me. I had 17,200 and QTo (no spade).

The level is 800/1600 with 200 antes.

With 11 BB, I limped behind. The blinds came along and we had a 6 way pot.

The flop was Ts 9s 6x (pot: 11,400)

It checked to the main Villian who bet 3,000. Hero calls, the rest fold.

The turn came a brick – I noted it as 4x although it could have been a 3x or 2x.

Villian leads for 4K.

Timestamps

0:30 Hello
8:24 strat
34:35 – dick pt 1

Strategy

Winning Poker Network Game #1128438874: No Limit Holdem ($0.05/$0.10) [2018/02/20 01:29:56 UTC]

Table: (PRR) Dilong – 4
Seats: 9
Seat 2: kingsilence ($17.70)
Seat 3: eko4gg ($4)
Seat 4: BigGigantic ($17.83)
Seat 6: golfboyseven ($19.02)
Seat 7: SecretSquirrel ($12.21)
Seat 8: riffjax ($17.30)
Seat 9: gazayute ($12.74)
Button is seat 6
SecretSquirrel: posts small blind $0.05
riffjax: posts big blind $0.10

*** HOLE CARDS ***
riffjax: dealt [Ah Kc]
gazayute: folds
kingsilence: folds
eko4gg: folds
BigGigantic: folds
golfboyseven: folds
SecretSquirrel: raises $0.15
riffjax: raises $0.50
SecretSquirrel: calls $0.40

*** FLOP *** [3d 4c 5h]
SecretSquirrel: checks
riffjax: bets $0.57
SecretSquirrel: raises $1.14
riffjax: calls $0.57

*** TURN *** [3d 4c 5h] [As]
SecretSquirrel: checks
riffjax: bets $1.65
SecretSquirrel: calls $1.65

*** RIVER *** [3d 4c 5h] [As] [9c]
SecretSquirrel: raises all-in $8.82
riffjax ??

Tommy Angelo and Carlos Welch are among my all-time favorite guests, so getting them together on one show would have already had the makings of greatness. But what made it all the greater is that we got to record this in person, from Tommy’s suite at the Rio, which always makes for better on-air rapport. Tommy told stories from the pre-boom WSOP era and even engaged in a bit of honest-to-goodness poker strategy talk. The only thing that could have been better is if Nate had been able to join us in person rather than via Skype. I definitely missed seeing him in Las Vegas this summer.

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & welcome
4:34 – Satellite strategy
19:18 – Nipun Java

Links

Twitch
Twitter
Joe Ingram Interview

Timestamps

0:30 – hello
4:45 – KL
62:49 – strat

Timestamps

0:30 – hello
8:29 – strat
46:20 – etay

Strategy

NLHE tournament, 2000/4000 with a 400 ante. I had the big stack at the table, at about 280k or so. The villain in this hand was second in chips with 235k. There were roughly 36 players left, with 32 getting paid.

Action folds to him in the hijack, he makes it 11,500, I have JJ, and make it 30k. All fold back to him, he calls quickly.

Pot is ~69k . He checks blind (he did this a lot). Flop comes 467r. I bet 45K, Villain calls.

Pot ~159k. He checks blind again (less common for him to do this on the turn). Turn is a 2. I check behind.

~159k. River is a 3. He thinks for a couple seconds and shoves for 161k.

The trickiest problem of all is that you can only collect bounties if you have more chips than your opponents, which means that there must be some disjuncture in chip value. To understand this, consider that everyone else has 7,500 chips and you have 7,499. How much would you pay to be able to add a single chip to your stack? I don’t know to put an exact number on that, but considering that that chip would give you a shot at collecting $500 bounties, it must be a good deal more than $0.1133. Losing a single chip, however, would cost you less than that, because that chip would be nowhere near your last.

Let’s consider another hypothetical. At 50/100, you are in the big blind. You and the player on your right both have exactly the 7,500 starting stack. The action folds to the small blind, who moves all in without looking at his cards. Assuming that you are of exactly average skill in this tournament, what should your calling range be?

Please give it a look and let me know what you think!

Plus, a big announcement from Nate, and Andrew discusses a big call down he made in the WSOP Main Event.

Timestamps

0:30 – hello & welcome
16:30 – strategy
50:30 – Benny Glaser

Strategy

Beginning of Level 2, 150/300. I open to 750 UTG2 with ATo (while noting that the very active Euro on my left is doing the fold hold). CO, BN, and BB call. CO and BN are among the weaker players at the table, BB seems quite good.

Flop T66cc, check to me, I bet 1200 into 3000ish, only BB calls (he called pretty quickly, though I put less stock in timing tells for better players).

Turn 4o. He checks, I bet 2200, he raises to 8000, and I take a long time calling.

River 3o. He bets 16K into 25K.

Timestamps

0:25 Hello and Welcome
16:00 Strategy

Timestamps
0:30 – hello and welcome
34:43 – strategy

I’m selling action in the WSOP Main Event, in increments of 1% or 5%. Mark-up is 2.0 for increments of 1% ($200 each), or 1.8 for increments of 5% ($900 each). These prices are based on what my action sold at in last year’s auction. My goal is to have approximately 33% of my own action in this tournament.

Please also be aware that my winnings as well as any payments I make to you may be reported to the IRS, and you will need to provide address, social security number (or equivalent, for non-Americans), and any other information required for this purpose. This isn’t information that I need in advance, but in the event that I need to pay out profits to you, it’s information I’ll need to collect before paying out your share of the winnings.

If you’re interested or have questions, please leave a comment here or write me at andrew (at) thinkingpoker net.

For the first time in a while, my girlfriend is here with me. Understandably she wasn’t interested in spending the summer in some sad, low-end studio apartment of the sort I’ve rented for past WSOP trips. But she also wasn’t interested in some luxury one-bedroom condo – she wouldn’t be my girlfriend if she were! #nitcast

Her suggestion was that we rent a house instead. I was a bit reluctant, because I didn’t have any clear idea of who would occupy the other bedrooms, but it looks like it’s going to work out well. Dara O’Kearney will be here for most of the summer, and then a variety of friends and students will rotate through the third bedroom over the course of the series. I’ve often said that one of my biggest regrets is that I never did the whole “rent a house with a bunch of other players and spend the summer immersed in poker and learning from each other” thing, and this is the closest I’m likely to get.

It’s what I think of as a typical Las Vegas house: newly built, blandly functional, and fundamentally cheap beneath a facade of luxury. I’ve always said that Las Vegas is a microcosm of everything that’s wrong with America.

Speaking of which, the house is in a little gated community that, judging by the packet of rules that was waiting for us when we arrived, seems to be governed by an aggressive Homeowner’s Association. Though ridiculous (No fake plants of any kind on exterior property! No decorations except for American flags or appropriate holiday decorations that are promptly removed!), none of these seems likely to affect us except for aggressive street parking restrictions which could be an issue because the house has a two-car garage but we’re likely to have three cars here at various times (returning again to the theme of everything that’s wrong with America). In all likelihood we’ll just be able to get a visitor parking permit and it will all be fine, but I’ll feel better once that’s sorted out with the landlord.

Anyway, on our first night here, I dreamt that a high school friend of mine, his family, and his dog (I don’t know where that last part came from, as he doesn’t have a dog and never has) came to stay with us. Also my boyhood dog, Paul, was alive and with us. My friend’s dog ran away, and while we were out look looking for it, Paul made a mess of the living room carpet.

We found my friend’s dog, but it escaped again while we were cleaning up Paul’s mess. This time a community security guard brought the dog back to us with a stern warning and also a referral code for a doggie daycare, in the style of the “Girls Direct to Your Hotel Room!” cards that are omnipresent on The Strip, because of course this is Las Vegas and even in your dreams everyone is getting a kickback.

I woke up enough to realize that my pounding heart was just the result of the dream. “None of that really happened,” I reassured myself. “The dogs haven’t gotten out.” Then I woke up a bit further and remembered that there are no dogs here and Paul has been dead for 15 years.

Happy WSOP everyone!

Clayton previously discussed his deep run in the WSOP Main Event on this show. Follow Clayton on Twitter@claytoncomic and learn more about his upcoming shows from his website. His podcast is Broadway Comedy Club Radio.

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome
29:09 – Strategy

WSOP Prep

Tournament Poker Edge
Zach Elwood on poker tells

Strategy

Playing £1/£2 NLHE with £420 effective stacks. Hero opens to £8 with Ad 4d on the Button. Small blind folds and villain calls in the BB.

Pot is £17
Flop – JdJs5d

Villain checks, Hero bets £12, Villain raises to £28, Hero calls.

Pot £73
Turn is 7d

Villain bets £100, Hero calls.

Pot £273
River – 8h
Final board – JdJs5d7d8h

Villain checks, Hero?

Cliff’s Notes: Selling action in a full slate of Las Vegas summer tournaments. Increments as small as 1% are available, with discounts for larger pieces. I run my packages a bit differently than most, so if you’re interested, please read carefully: 

This Google spreadsheet lists all of the tournaments that could be played on the stake, but there are no guarantees. I’ll collect money up front that hopefully will be enough to cover the entire summer, but depending on how things go there’s some chance that further investment will be required in order to have a piece of some of the final events. Any unused buyins will be returned along with your share of winnings at the end of the series (mid-July).

This package does not include the WSOP Main Event. I will be selling that separately and posting details in the next few weeks.

In the left column are the events I’m more likely to play, on the right are other possibilities. Even among those on the left, some are much more likely than others. The idea is, on any day that I feel like playing a tournament, to have an easy answer to the question, “What is the best tournament to play today?”

Largely for my own reference, tournaments with multiple flights are generally listed more than once. Any flight for any tournament on this list is authorized, even if that particular flight isn’t explicitly listed. In other words, if I only listed Flights A – F for the Planet Hollywood event, but I end up playing Flight G, that will still be on the stake.

I’m going to start by collecting money based on $40K worth of buy-ins. That’s a pretty conservative number, but again, there is no guarantee that this will be enough to cover all of the events, so additional investment could be required if you want a piece of the later events. I’ll keep you updated on progress throughout the summer.

Mark-up will be 1.3 for pieces smaller than 5%, and 1.25 for 5% or more. That means each 1% share is $520 up front, and each 5% share is $2500. I’m looking to sell 50% of the package, and 35% is already sold as of this posting. I will update when sold out.

Please comment here or email andrew (at) thinkingpoker (dot) net with questions or if you’d like buy a piece.

Terms:

1. Several of these events are re-entries. I will not forfeit a stack in order to re-enter on a subsequent flight, except in an extreme circumstance where I believe this decision to be +EV for the stake (and not merely for my own hourly rate). This would require the stack to be quite miniscule and the value of playing another flight quite high, a situation that’s unlikely to arise.

2. Decisions about which of the listed tournaments to play and whether to enter late will be at my sole discretion. There’s a real chance that, if I bust a Primary tournament early and it is not a re-entry, that I will late register one of the Secondary tournaments. If I do so, I may reduce the mark-up on that event, but that will be at my discretion.

3. My winnings as well as any payments I make to you may be reported to the IRS, and you will need to provide address, social security number (or equivalent, for non-Americans), and any other information required for this purpose. This isn’t information that I need in advance, but in the event that I need to pay out profits to you, it’s information I’ll need to collect before paying out your share of the winnings.

4. Payment can be made via Venmo, customer-to-customer bank transfer (I have accounts with Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Capital One 360), in-person deposit into my Wells Fargo or Bank of America account, or cash in Vegas if you can get it to me around the start of the series. Paypal insists that I pay a 3% fee on this sort of transaction, so I’m inclined not to use them, but if it’s your only option we can discuss it. I will do my best to pay you back in the same form in which you paid me, but especially in the happy event that I owe you a lot of money, I can’t guarantee that.

5. Only the tournaments listed on the linked spreadsheet are part of the stake. Any other cash games or tournaments I play during this time, whether or not they are part of the WSOP, will not be paid for using stake money, nor will stakers be entitled to anything I win in them.

6. Sponsorships, promotions, and anything else I receive as a result of playing these tournaments will not be shared with stakers unless they are funded from the prize pool (I don’t believe there’s anything that fits this bill, but I could be mistaken). That’s right, if I make quad jacks, I’m keeping the jerky for myself!

Please let me know if you’re interested or if you have any questions. Thanks as always for considering it!

Timestamps

0:30 – hello and welcome
2:52 – hello and welcome again
9:34 – strategy
35:38 – Patrick Leonard

Chase sticks around for a special strategy segment featuring a 10/25 NLHE hand in which Andrew was also involved!

You can follow @Chase_Bianchi on Twitter and rail him on Twitch!

Andrew would appreciate, and is offering prizes for, donations to the Bay Area Urban Debate League.

Timestamps

0:30 – hello
13:36 – chase

Strategy

Utg opens 75, main opponent calls HJ, AlphaNit calls BU, we call 65cc in sb, BB calls.
5 way flop($375) 8d 6h 4c checks to villain he bets 175, AlphaNit calls, we call, 2 folds.
3 way turn($900) 7d. We check, villain bets 350, AlphaNit fold, we call.
HU river 7x. We check, villain bets 475 with 1500 behind. Hero?

Timestamps

0:30 – hello
2:25 – strategy
24:48 – danny

Strategy

1/2 NLHE, 9-handed.

Villain 1 raises UTG1 to $12, Villain 2 calls, Villain 3 ($105) in the CO calls. Hero ($220) calls with Ad Tc in the SB.

Flop ($50) Jh Qh Ks. Hero checks, V1 bets $40, V2 calls, and V3 goes all in for $93. Hero?

You can follow Ryan on Twitter and get more information about him and his coaching from his website. He recommends reading The Red Rising Triology.

Timestamps

0:30 hello
12:01 strategy
41:29 ryan laplante

Strategy

Full ring, $1-$2 NL. I have $350 in the BB and the main villain, on the button, has $600. Other two villains directly to my left are a mix of loose aggressive and loose passive with stacks of around $250.

I have 5h5c in the BB and main villain is OTB. UTG1 raises to $17, UTG2 calls, folds to main villain who calls. I call.

Flop ($69) Qs,5d,3s

Hero checks, UTG bets $25, UTG1 calls, BTN (main villain) raises to $50, I raise to $150, UTG 1 and 2 both fold. BTN calls.

Turn ($419) is 2d. We both check.

River ($419) is Jd. I check, Villain bets $110, I shove for $183, Villain calls.

Be sure to check out Tommy’s new and improved website and follow him on Twitter. His earlier appearances on the podcast are here and here.

Timestamps

0:30 Hello & Welcome
18:29 Strategy
41:25 William Kassouf

Strategy

$2/$5 No-Limit Hold ‘Em

HJ ($2000) opens to $20. Hero ($1200) raises to $40 with Kd Kh. Button ($2000) calls, as does the small blind ($1500).

Flop ($160): 5d 6c 7h. SB checks, HJ checks, Hero bets $60, only SB calls.

Turn ($280): 3d. SB bets $150. Hero calls.

River ($580) 4d. SB bets $425. Hero?

You can visit Chris Moorman’s website and follow him on Twitter.

Timestamps

0:30 hello & strategy
22:44 chris moorman

Strategy

2/5 table at the rio. I’m in the sb with AsQc. UTG limps for 5, UTG +1 raises to 15. Folds around to a pretty tight player on the button who makes it $45. I call, the limper calls, and UTG +1 calls.

Flop ($180): Ah9s8h

I bet $135. The UTG limper folds and the UTG +1 ships it all in pretty quickly so it’s $455 total – $320 more. Button folds….

In the meantime, my latest poker strategy article, “They’re More Afraid of You,” is now appearing in 2+2 Magazine. It’s about using fear to your advantage in poker, but with a particular focus on the WSOP Tag Team event that Nate and I played:

no player wants to be the one to lose all of the team’s chips, especially not in a “boneheaded” way. I mean, if you get Aces cracked, your teammates will understand, but if you call off all of your chips hoping to catch a bluff and get shown a set, how do you explain that to the rest of the team?

Enjoy!

You can follow @IanSimpsonPoker on Twitter and read his blog.

Timestamps

0:30 hello and welcome
3:43 Ian Simpson

Timestamps

There was such a great mix of types of teams! Of course in some cases it was just a few great players who happened to be friends playing together, but lots of people were playing with family members (George Danzer, his girlfriend, and his father were at our table for a while!), and in perhaps my favorite story from the event, Niall Farell, who lost heads up to Safiya Umerova in the $1500 no-limit shootout, tweeted “If you can’t beat them…” along with a picture of a registration receipt for a Niall/Safiya team for this event!

I wouldn’t be surprised if, for many of these teams, this was the only WSOP event they played, which means that the event was also successful in bringing in new players. There was a lot of joking and speculation about whether the event wouldn’t ruin friendships or even marriages (someone tweeted that he hoped it wouldn’t be the end of the podcast!), but from what I observed, everyone, from the most recreational players to the most serious pros, seemed to be having fun.

My girlfriend raised an interesting point that hadn’t really occurred to me: this event gives recreational players the opportunity to enter a WSOP event for less even than the $500 Colossus. Ordinarily, if four friends wanted to pool their money to enter a $1000 WSOP event, only one of them could actually play, and although this does happen, it’s surely a bit disappointing for the other three. The team event enabled all four to get a taste of the WSOP experience for a cheaper price than they could anywhere else.

You might think that because it’s a bracelet event and there are also a lot of grinders taking it very seriously, that might ruin the fun for the amateurs, but that doesn’t seem right to me. I don’t imagine those folks enter an event like this thinking they are favorites to win it. In many cases, I imagine they want the full WSOP experience, they want a taste of the competitiveness and the famous pros as well as the kids in sunglasses and hoodies, etc.

All in all, it seemed a resounding success to me, and I can’t wait to play it again next year. My only regret relates to Tommy Angelo’s famous proclamation that the pleasure:pain ratio is all out of whack in a poker tournament. I misplayed two hands that resulted in our elimination, and I can say that it hurts a LOT more knowing that your mistakes brought an end to the fun for you and your friend.

Sorry Nate! Thanks for playing with me, and we’ll get them next year!

The other fun thing about my starting table was that Ian Simpson was there. If you don’t know Ian, you will soon. We’ve already recorded an interview with him and will publish it perhaps as early as this coming Monday, if it doesn’t get pre-empted by WSOP content (will depend on how much time we find to record in the next few days).

Nate and I had high hopes of getting dinner with Ian and Ryan Hall, but it turned out that the break was only 30 minutes, which caused Ryan to drop out, and Ian had already busted and left, so it was just Nate and me. And in fact, if Nate hadn’t busted shortly before dinner break and volunteered to get a table and place an order in advance, we wouldn’t even have managed that. I really don’t understand the point of a 30 minute dinner break.

Overall I think I played perhaps the best tournament poker I have yet in this event. I got moved away from my awesome starting table and spent the rest of the day tangling (or trying not to tangle) with some tough young Europeans. Unfortunately I just kept losing pre-flop all ins after chipping up.

There was one other hand I was proud of. At 400/800/100, I opened to 2000 with Jc 9c in the CO, and the BB, one of aforementioned Europeans, re-raised to 6000. There are some people who will be quite strong when they three-bet from the big blind, preferring to call most hands that they might use as “light” three-bets, and although I did expect this player to be polarized, I would expect him to have a more good/balanced three-betting strategy even from the big blind. So, I called with about 31K behind.

The flop came Qc 9hs 8c, and he bet 6K. I think a lot of people will just jam here because they know they have a lot of equity and they aren’t comfortable playing future streets. With a slightly weaker hand, say Kc Tc, I think shoving is correct – you’d rather get all in on the flop, ideally with some fold equity, than call and get forced off your equity on a blank turn.

However, I think my hand is strong enough to get all in no matter the turn card, and I don’t think Villain will fold many hands with substantial equity. It’s important to consider all of your options rather than just defaulting to a shove any time you have enough equity to get all in, and here I think there’s more value in calling than shoving.

The turn was a Q, and we both checked. The river was the 3s, we both checked again, and he showed Aces to win the pot. To be clear, although this was a nice side benefit of just calling the flop, avoiding a stack off to overpairs on a few specific runouts is really not the main reason to call the flop. I’m going to be stacking off on most turns, this was just the rare card that neither of us particularly wanted to bet, and that happened to work to my advantage.

I had a weirder spot with the most obviously recreational player at the table, an older woman who was quite friendly and whom I’m sure I’ve seen around before and perhaps even played with. She opened from middle position to 1700 (BB was still 800), and I called with 52s in my BB.

The flop came 877r, and we both checked.

The turn was a 2, I bet 3000, and she called.

The river was a 3, and I was a bit unsure how to proceed. I expected to have the best hand quite often, as I think she’d bet pairs on the flop almost always. Was she really going to call me down twice with Ace-high though? On this board, it seemed plausible. I’ve actually coached a few people who are roughly in her demographic and quite aware of their image and accustomed to people who look like me firing spewy bluffs at people who look like them. So, I bet 6000, and she called with K7s for trips, which it actually surprised me a bit that she would have that based on her pre-flop position (not that she couldn’t have other 7x) and doesn’t really tell me anything one way or the other about the river bet.

A few orbits later, with the BB at 1000, she opened my big blind again, to 2200. This time, I held 22. I decided to jam for my last 18K, based on the fact that she’d showed down the K7s and also A6o from a similar position. I also thought that she might fold a bit too much, perhaps something as strong as AJo. Frankly, though, this is probably a little spewy, and if we’re being honest, I caught a whiff of strength when she looked at her cards.

Sure enough, she called with 88 to bust me. The only consolation was that even if I had called with the 22, I would have flopped a set and lost to a turned 8, so in this case the mistake didn’t actually cost me anything, but it was a mistake nonetheless.

Nate and I are going to play the Team Event at the WSOP today, which should be fun.

I got off to a good start in the $1500 but ran into some annoying spots. At 150/300, the CO, the weakest player at the table, opened to 1000, and I had KJs on the button. Based on the size of his raise, I figured he was strong, which means calling at all here is borderline, but I was trying to get into pots with him, I had position and a reasonable hand, and we were about 80BBs deep, so I hopped in there.

Then the SB, a player who’d mostly been quite passive, suddenly got it into his head to squeeze. Maybe I was just salty, but just the way he looked at us and gathered his chips, I really didn’t think he had anything. He made it 3500, the CO happily shoved, I folded, and the SB quickly folded as well. I have no idea what prompted him to do that,

The very next hand, a tilted player in early position opened to 875, the HJ (the CO from the previous hand) called, and I called QTs on the CO. The flop came KJ6 with one of my suit, the original raiser checked, and the HJ made a big bet, like 80% pot. Obviously I wasn’t getting immediate odds to draw, but I figured my implied odds would be very good if I hit, so I called. Then the original raiser went into the tank, and it was instantly obvious he was strong and looking to check-raise. He drew the process out for over a minute, stacking and restacking chips and trying to act torn about his decision, which only made it more obvious that he was strong. He raised, the HJ instantly folded, and I eyed his stack but had no choice to fold myself, as he was going to have less than a pot-sized bet behind.

A while later, at a different table, at the 250/500 level, I opened to 1100 with K6o in the CO. Not exactly standard, but the BB seemed very amateurish. Only he called.

The flop came Q63 with two clubs, and I held the Kc. He checked, I bet 1100, and he raised to 5000. My plan, after betting so small on the flop, was to call a check-raise, but I wasn’t expecting such a large one. I think I should have just folded right there, but I called.

The turn was another Q, and he jammed for a pot-sized bet. It seemed crazy not to call him when the only hand I was worried about just got less likely, but I took my time and tried to get a read. Based on his body language, he seemed quite comfortable, and I ultimately folded.

Part of me definitely feels like if I’m not calling a shove on that turn then there’s really no point in calling the flop. Then the other part of me argues that what my flop call bought me was the opportunity to make a read-based decision on the turn, and I (hopefully) made the right one.

The very next hand, I had about 28BB, and the action folded to me in the SB with 77. I’ve been experimenting with open limping a lot from the SB, and I think this is a good spot for it. There aren’t hands I want to open jam for this amount, and there are a lot of hands I don’t really want to raise-call or raise-fold for this amount, which means there’s a lot of merit to a limping strategy. With 77 specifically, raising and getting called doesn’t even produce that great of a situation, as most flops will be difficult to play.

My plan was to shove over a raise, but the BB took that play away from me by shipping his stack. Although I wasn’t eager to race for such a large pot, I thought he would rarely jam hands that dominated me but jam some hands I dominated, including smaller pairs and Ax, which makes calling pretty profitable if high-variance. I called and lost a race to T9s.

Gonna play the $1000 Turbo NLHE today.

My Personal History with Full Tilt Poker

I had more than $60,000 on Full Tilt Poker on Black Friday, and although I eventually (after more than two years) got it all back, for a long time I had no idea what was going to happen to it. And I was one of the lucky ones: there were people with a lot more than that jammed up, and there were people with less who needed it more. Although I would have rather had that money earning interest somewhere, neither my life nor my bankroll were badly affected by not having access to it.

That’s absolutely not to say that it wasn’t a lot of money to me. It was and is a significant chunk of my net worth. As many of you know, though, I try to live well within my means (#nitcast), so it wasn’t money that I needed to pay my rent nor even to be adequately bankrolled for the games I wanted to play.

What upset me most was the gall of the whole thing, how they stonewalled and lied to us after Black Friday, even as it slowly became clear that Full Tilt did not have our money, and that the reason they did not have our money was that they had mismanaged it, making reckless loans and paying out huge disbursements to shareholders. As far as I’m concerned, getting my money back after two years didn’t make any of that go away, and it didn’t make us square. I’m holding my breath for any further compensation, but I’m not eager to welcome Ferguson and Lederer back into the good graces of the poker world, either.

I’ll admit that I don’t know Ferguson’s exact role in what went wrong before and after Black Friday. That’s not willful ignorance: there’s just not a lot of hard information available. According to Mike Sexton, whom I do consider to be a broadly reliable source, Ferguson actually did more than any of the other principals at FTP to help protect and restore player balances.

That’s to his credit, but it doesn’t change my opinion that he played a role in screwing me and took home millions of dollars in the process. As a member of the Board of Directors, he had an obligation to ensure the safety of player deposits, and he didn’t do it, and although he may have lost or given back some of it, I believe that there is to this day there’s money in his bank account that isn’t rightfully his.

I’d more or less put all of this behind me, until Lederer and Ferguson summoned up a new batch of gall and decided to start making noise in the poker world again. Lederer recently claimed “full responsibility” for Full Tilt’s failure, though that doesn’t seem to entail any monetary sacrifice on his part.

Ferguson Arrives

As far as I know, Ferguson has never made any kind of public statement about Full Tilt and certainly hasn’t offered a public apology. I knew that he would be been around the Rio, and I even passed him in the men’s room once, but it never occurred to me that he would land at my table. I assumed he only planned to play a few of the higher buy-in events. What he was doing in an $888 tournament is beyond me.

When he arrived at the table, it was a shock. I couldn’t believe it was happening. I had no idea what to do. No real good could come from confronting him: what did I think, that he was going to cut me a check on the spot? That he was going to break down in tears and confess to everything? I knew that it would only upset me and distract me from the game. Besides, was I just going to attack him out of nowhere? How do you start that conversation?

Still, it irked me that he was able to pony up to the table like it was no big deal, like bygones were bygones, like he was just another poker player. I’d been vocal on the internet about how Full Tilt players were never made whole – was I just going to sit there quietly when I finally had the chance to confront one of the owners directly?

My hands were shaking and my mind was spinning. I could hardly pay attention to what else was going on at the table. Thankfully, my stack was short enough that all of my decisions were binary and didn’t require much thought.

I remembered some wisdom I picked up from Tommy Angelo, though I’m sure it’s not unique to him: forgiveness isn’t something you do for the person you’ve forgiving, it’s something you do for yourself, because anger and bitterness are poison and you shouldn’t keep them inside of you.

What did I really know about Ferguson’s side of the story? I was rushing to a judgment that, though I had a high degree of confidence in it, was not 100%. Maybe he really was some hero operating behind the scenes. It wasn’t likely, but it was possible.

The nice way to put it would be that I decided to take the high road. Maybe I just chickened out. But I decided not to say anything to him and just focus on playing cards.

That peace lasted for a few minutes, until another player at our table was eliminated. After gathering his things, the young man reached out to shake Ferguson’s hand. “It’s an honor”,  he said. “Glad to have you back.”

That was the final straw, but it was also the icebreaker I needed. “I don’t agree with that, for what it’s worth,” I declared to the table at large. “Anyone else here have money on Full Tilt Poker?”

No one responded. I didn’t know whether the answer was no, or whether I was just speaking so agitatedly that they couldn’t understand me. I locked eyes with the guy who looked most like a former online player. “Did you have money on Full Tilt?”

He removed his headphones. I asked him again. “No,” he told me. I could feel my face reddening. Ferguson still hadn’t said anything, but I certainly had his attention.

“I had $60,000 locked up for over two years,” I said.

“And did you get it back?” Ferguson asked me, as though that would make everything OK.

“That was $60,000 I couldn’t access for two years. No interest.”

“Sorry about that. But you got it back?”

Finally, someone else chimed in. “I had over $9000 in bonuses that I never received,” he said.

“But you got the balance back?” Chris asked.

“No,” I interrupted. “You asked whether we got paid back. The answer is, we got some of what we were owed.”

We just stared at each other for a few seconds after that. There was nothing more to say. I sat back down. My hands were still shaking, and my face was burning, but it was a relief to say something to him.

I’m relieved that I didn’t say anything nasty, and I truly don’t wish him harm or misfortune. But for him just to return to the poker world like nothing happened feels like a denial of all of the harm that Full Tilt did to so many individuals and to our community in general. When I saw him literally being welcomed back, I felt compelled to offer a counterweight to that sentiment.

Ferguson Departs

Ferguson had late registered, so he was playing a short stack. The first time he shoved, it was for about 8BBs in middle position. I was holding A4s in the CO and briefly considered calling him, but I realized my emotions were getting the best of me and folded.

A few orbits later, he jammed 6BBs UTG, and I was in middle position with ATo. This, I decided, was a call. Not a spite call, just a good call. I called.

The Ace came right on the flop, and it was still good on the river. I’d busted Chris Ferguson. He tapped the table, looked me in the eye, and nodded at me. “Good luck.”

I nodded in acknowledgment and quietly stacked my chips.

This episode is sponsored by Shark Clock and Tournament Poker Edge.

Timestamps

0:30 hello
5:05 strategy with nate
24:33 ed miller

Blinds 25/50

MP opens to 150, Villain calls in CO, I call 66 on the Button, and BB calls.

Flop (625) Js 8d 6h Two checks, the CO bets 325, I raise to 800, two folds, and he calls.

Turn (2225) 3s. He checks, I bet 1500, he thinks a bit and calls

River (5225) Qd. He looks at my stack, then puts me all in for 4500. Admittedly, 66 is basically the nuts here, as I can’t see anyone good just check-calling 1500 on the turn with T9. Even spades probably plays better as a raise, especially given his incentive to get all in against me and put my bounty in play.

I was pretty sure I was going to call, but I took my time anyway, and I guess that made him assume that his QJ was good. I do think that especially in a bounty, where he has so much to gain by stacking me, he does make sense for him to shove the river, but it’s not a play a lot of people will make it, and I do try to think it through before making or calling large bets.

There were two other interesting spots, both at the 75/150/25 level. In the first, the HJ, who seemed just a touch too active but not overall a bad player, opened to 400, and I called with Qs Ts on my BB. He had a little over 7K behind, and I had about 11K.

Flop (1125) Qh 9c 7h. I considered donking here but ultimately checked. He bet 550, and I called.

Turn (2225) 5d. I checked, he bet 1500, I shoved, and he called with Ah 6h and hit the Th on the river.

In the second, the UTG player (at a 10-handed table) opened to 375, and I called with Ac Jh in the BB. I had about 3300 behind, and he had more than 30K, enough to still cover the entire table even if he doubled me.

Flop (1075) Kc Tc 5d. I actually bet 600, planning to fold to a raise. Even with his stack, this player seemed extremely passive and cautious, so I thought he would overfold and also shove much less often than he should. My hand is a decent one for betting because it’s equity is not so bad against a calling range but poor enough against a shoving range that I don’t lose a lot by folding. Plus I can jam turned clubs. However, the hand isn’t strong enough to check-call or check-raise, which means I usually just lose my equity if I check. Anyway, Villain called.

Turn (2275) Ah. Given Villain’s passivity, as well as the bounty factor, I just shoved. He reluctantly called Kc Q and my hand held up for a double.

I did a little GTORB analysis on both of these hands, and although that can’t take into consideration the very important bounty factor, it did reveal some slightly interesting stuff. Most notably, both of these players have such significant range advantages that I should very rarely (in practice, probably just never) donk bet in either spot.

I also wasn’t sure what GTORB would suggest for Villain’s Ah 6h. On the one hand, it’s obviously a huge draw, but on the other, with stacks being what they are, I thought Hero might often shove, putting Villain in a tough spot with a big draw.

Turns out that GTORB has Villain betting all of his A6 on the turn, with or without a heart draw, and always folding to a raise (though Villain’s call may not be wrong, as the bounty gives me incentive to raise a wider range, possibly including some dominated draws). And the Hero actually only check-raises about 10% (QT strictly prefers calling, though again, bounty may well change that). I guess it’s significant that the Hero generally raises his flopped monsters, and this is not a turn card that creates a lot of new monster hands (this is why A6 is a good betting hand, because it blocks 86), which means that Hero is pretty capped and the Villain can bet draws with abandon.

Tomorrow, I’ll most likely play the Venetian $1600.

Still, I got into two spots that are interesting not because of the magnitude of the decision – in both cases, it was quite small – but because of the frequency with which they occur, as well as the fact that in a shallow tournament, even small decisions have a big influence on your ROI.

Both occurred at the 50/100 level. In the first, I opened to 250 with Qs Qc on the button, and the big blind called.

The flop came AT4, all spades (meaning I had a flush draw), and we both checked.

The turn was the 9c, and we checked again.

He quickly checked a third time, on a Td river, and at the time it seemed so likely that my hand was good that I threw out a small value bet, about a quarter of the pot. He called with A6o to beat me.

In retrospect, I’m not so sure this was a good bet. Maybe it’s a bit results oriented knowing that A6o in his range, but I don’t think that’s really so surprising (it would be in mine). The Villain is going to have so many Ax combinations in his range that even if he doesn’t check a pair of Aces at a high frequency, it still could add up to enough combos that I can’t put in a value bet on the river. There are, of course, a limited number of worse hands that will call a bet, mostly 9x, pocket pairs, and maybe 4x or K-high.

In the second hand, I was down to about 2300 and had 7s 4s in the big blind. The hijack opened to 250, and the CO, who was the only truly good player among my opponents, called. With 550 in the pot, I had the option to call 100 more to see a flop. Although I would certainly call in a heads up pot, I elected to fold here, a decision that I later discussed with fellow Tournament Poker Edge pro Chris Moon.

My argument was that there aren’t many flops I can feel that good about in a multi-way pot. It will be rare that I can commit with just a 4 or a 7, and even when I flop a draw, I can’t expect that much fold equity against two players.

Chris suggested an interesting way of approaching that: assume you have no fold equity and will always either fold or get all in on the flop, at your option. Put them both on ranges, and run a simulation on ProPokerTools.

After the flop, you’ll commit 2200 chips for a final pot of 5050, meaning you’ll need 43% to get it in. Pre-flop, you’re getting 5.5:1, meaning that you need to get a “good enough” flop about 15% of the time. Of course these are simplifications: sometimes you will win without a showdown, sometimes you’ll see a turn, sometimes you’ll cause one player to fold substantial equity.

Even under these constraints, I found it to be close. For some reason I’m having trouble uploading the image, but here’s a link, which includes the ranges I gave both players (given my stack size, I think the CO can cold call some big hands, though maybe not quite as many as I gave.

It seems to me that given how rarely I’ll end up all in against two players, I probably should have called and just taken my equity on the 15% or so of flops that are “good enough” for me. Live and learn.

Today is the $1500 bounty, which I hope will be a fun and more interesting event!

Blinds were still 25/50, and I opened to 150 with Kc Qc in the HJ. The CO, SB, and BB all called.

The flop came 975 with two clubs, and the blinds checked. I certainly wouldn’t just c-bet arbitrarily into three opponents here, but with two overs and a flush draw, it’s an easy bet. I bet 450, and only the CO called.

The 2h turned, and on such a blank card, I think he’s more or less capped out at one pair, maybe TT or JJ at best and almost always weaker than that, so it’s a great spot for me to bombs away. I bet 1500, and he quickly called. The fact that he didn’t even consider raising made me even more certain that the didn’t have two-pair or a set.

So, I didn’t have to sweat a full house on the 9c river. I also didn’t think he’d call the turn with bare flush draws, at least not so quickly, so the only better hands in his range figured to bet Ac 8c and Ac 6c. I expected him to have T9 and 98 more frequently, and be unable to fold trips. I bet 4000, and he called with Ac 8c.

Nothing of great interest happened after that. I got a double up with AQ by convincing my opponent to spaz with 77 on a Q9xxx board.

Once I was down to 20 blinds, I wasn’t getting any shoving spots. Mostly my cards were bad, but also there was a guy with a big stack on my right who’d decided that he should play more than half the hands he was dealt. I’m honestly not sure he was joking/posturing when he wondered out loud whether he should call my 11BB UTG shove blind (I had AJo, and he folded).

A few hands later he opened to 1100 on the button, which it was really hard for me to imagine him folding a button, so I had a pretty easy shove for 5K or so with 22 in the SB. He called with A4o to bust me.

After the tournament I went and hung out with Carlos for a bit at the Tournament Poker Edge booth, then decided to check out the cash game scene at the Rio.

It truly does seem to get worse there every year. Now there are no chip runners (which, I realize, may not be their fault, but it sucks either way), which means that when they open a new game it takes a long time to start because people have to go wait in line at the cage, buy chips, then take them to the table, and of course no one wants to sit at the table waiting for others to show up, and certainly not come over from an already-running game to get the new one started, so it’s just a slow process and I can only imagine that the most impulsive (ie most desirable to have at your table) players are not sticking around for all that.

My first table was pretty boring, everyone seemed decent enough and the average stack was less than $2K, which is quite small for an uncapped $5/$10.

I was about to quit when my table change came through and I landed at a new table where my $6500 made me just the third largest stack! Had there been chip runners, I would have added on, but as it was I decided just to make do with 650 big blinds.

It was a fun game, nobody spewing but nobody playing particularly good deep-stacked poker, and I was winning solidly. Then, literally the hand before I was going to quit:

I open 22 to $40 UTG (believe we were 7-handed at the time), and four people call. The flop comes K72r. I bet $150, and only the button called. I had about $7500 at the time, and she covered me.

The turn was another K. I checked, figuring a check-raise could get more money in against a K and also give her a chance to bluff/protection bet weaker hands. She checked behind.

The river card was something small (not a 2!), and with $500 in the pot, I threw out a $1K chip. Overbetting was not unprecedented for me, and none of those hands had yet gone to showdown.

She asked if that was a $500 chip, the dealer told her it was $1000, and then she nodded and said, “All in.” Faced with calling $6K to win $8500, I really don’t think is a tough fold at all. I’m uncapped, which means I have both nut hands and better bluff-catchers, not that I would expect to see many bluffs here anyway.

Even though that basically wiped out my profit for the night, I quit feeling pretty good about myself. Among other things, I probably would have lost my ass if she’d bet the turn!

For some crazy reason the Monster Stack is not a re-entry, so I’m just going to play cash tonight, probably at Bellagio, and then hit up the $1K Turbo WSOP event tomorrow morning.

To place your bid, head to StakeKings!

Timestamps

0:30 hello and welcome
5:45 strategy
46:24 christian

Strategy

$5/10 at Bellagio

Pre-flop:
UTG+1 raised to $15 (sic). I was hijack $800 stack holding AcQs. I called. Cutoff $2500 stack called. Button $1500 stack called. Small blind folded. Big blind $7000 stack called.

4 callers $75 pot

Flop:
AsKsQx
Checked to me, I bet $50. Villain called. Big blind called. Original raiser folded.

$225 pot

Turn: 7x
big blind checked, I bet $150, villain called and big blind folded.

$525 pot

River Tx:
I checked. Villain shoved.

Contrary to the fancy image seen here, The Thinking Poker Diaries Volume 8 is actually available only as an e-book. It’s on sale now in the Kindle Store, and EPUB, Kindle, and PDF versions will be available on Nitcast.com shortly.

If you haven’t yet read Volume One, well, there’s no reason you’d have to to make sense of this book, but why haven’t you?!

Timestamps

0:30 – Hello & Welcome
7:47 – Strategy:
21:28 – Interview: Gags30

Strategy

$1/$3 NLHE

UTG limps, Hero ($600) raises to $16 with KsJs, V1 ($300) calls, V2 ($500) calls on the button, everyone else folds.

Flop ($51 in pot) Jd 3h 3c. Hero bets $20, V1 calls, V2 raises to $50, Hero calls, V1 calls.

Turn ($200 in pot) 6s. Hero checks, V1 checks, V2 bets $90, Hero?

The book is available from the Amazon Kindle Store or in EPUB, Kindle, and PDF formats at Nitcast.com.

Timestamps

:30 – hello & welcome
5:06 – strategy: getting paid with quads
34:47 – interview: neil blumenfield

Strategy

$1/$3 NLHE $800 effective stacks

Villain opens to $15 from utg +2.
Hero is next to act holding 5c5h and calls the 15.
The button calls the 15 (stack 300 ish)
The limper calls the 15 (stack 150 ish)

flop ($59) is Kd 9d 5d
limper checks, Villain bets 45, Hero calls, everyone else folds.

turn ($149) is the 4c

Villain bets $55 into the now 149. Hero raises to $150 total and villain calls

River ($450) 5s. Villain checks. Hero?

Timestamps

0:30 – hello
8:30 – quads in the WSOP ME
46:40 – brad

Strategy

Day 3 of WSOP Main Event, 1000/2000/200 UTG opens to 4k off a stack of 130k. Folds to Hero (43k) in BB with two black aces. I decided to flat. Pot was 10.8k.

Flop came down A83hhh. Both check.

Turn was the 6h. Both check.

River is the case A. Hero?

Links

Nate put together a playlist of Brad’s recommendations, as well as an additional note about Ellix Powers

Bust by Brad Willis

The Boy They Couldn’t Kill by Thomas Lake

Homicide: Life on the Street. Please, if you liked The Wire, watch the first season at least

Support the Bay Area Urban Debate League!

Brian is the host of The Moment podcast, where he’s interviewed many prominent athletes and artists as well as Phil Hellmuth and Vanessa Selbst. You can follow him on Twitter @BrianKoppelman. There’s plenty more to link for this show, so I’m making a whole section for links below. Hopefully I caught everything, but if you have trouble finding anything referenced in the show, please leave a comment.

Timestamps

0:30 Hello & Welcome
11:14 Strategy
35:05 Brian Koppelman

Links

An Elegy for a Carpet Joint

Requiem for a Rounder (RIP Joel Bagels)

Billions

Hesitation Wounds by Amy Koppelman

David Foster Wallace reads How Tracy Austin Broke My Heart

Open by Andre Agassi

Infinite Jest by David Foster Wallace

What I Talk About When I Talk About Running by Haruki Murakami

Colorless Tsukuru Tazaki by Haruki Murakami

Buffett: The Making of an American Capitalist by Roger Lowenstein

Poker’s 1% by Ed Miller

Expert Heads Up No Limit by Will Tipton

Elements of Poker by Tommy Angelo

Thinking Tournament Poker by Nate Meyvis

Screen shots of Teddy KGB’s hand

Interview with Matt Sienkiewicz (speculation about why Grama is angry)

Brian Koppelman on WTF (subscription required)

Big thanks to Clayton Fletcher for helping to make this happen!

Follow Clayton on Twitter@claytoncomic and learn more about his upcoming shows from his website. His podcast is Broadway Comedy Club Radio.

Timestamps

0:30 Hello and Welcome
34:44 Main Event Strategy

Strategy

Hand 1

Blinds 800/1600/200 effective stack 80K
Hero opens to 3500 with Qd Jd in 3rd position, Button 3bets to 8500, Hero calls

Flop QT7 with one diamond.
Hero checks, Button bets 9500, Hero calls

Turn Ks. Hero checks, Button bets 11,500 into 40,200, Hero calls.

River 9s. Hero checks, Button shoves

Hand 2

Blinds 100/200 effective stack 30K.

Villain opens to 450, one call, Hero raises to 1300 with Jc 8c on the Button, Villain calls, other player folds.

Flop (3200) Ac Jh 7c. Villain checks, Hero bets 1500, Villain raises to 4000, Hero calls.

Turn (11K) 9d. Villain bets 5000, Hero calls.

Rivers (21,300) 8s. Villain bets 7000 into 21000.

Hand  3

Blinds 1K/2K/300 effective stacks 160K. Villain opens to 4K, Hero has QQ in the SB and raises 11K, V raises to 33K.

Pick up your copy today at www.nitcast.com (you’ll get PDF, EPUB, and Kindle versions) or in the Kindle Store (Kindle version only).

Neil talks to us about this dubious honor as well as the other challenges facing him as an amateur, albeit a serious and accomplished one, among professionals.

You can root for Neil in November when ESPN airs the final table of the WSOP Main Event. If you’re in San Francisco, check out his girlfriend’s store.

Our strategy hand comes to us from the author of A Main Event Rookie Lives the Dream.

Timestamps

:30 – hello and welcome
12:40 – strat
54:30 – interview

Strategy

Blinds 2000/4000/300. UTG2 (80K) limps. Hero has JJ in the HJ and raises to 12,000. BB calls and the limper folds.

Flop (34.5K in pot) Q-6-8r. BB checks, Hero bets 20K, BB calls.

Turn (75K in pot) Q86Jr. BB checks, Hero bets 65K, BB calls.

River (205K)  Q-6-8-J-10. BB shoves 70K.

The books mentioned on the show are Poetic Meter & Poetic Form, How to Rap, and Decoded. Alex contributed a chapter to Excelling at No-Limit Hold ‘Em.

In this volume, you’ll find essays covering the following topics:

Navigating the Early Stages of a Tournament
Balance
Playing Your Image
Catching Bluffs
(Not) Talking at the Table
The Tournament Mindset

You can buy The Thinking Poker Diaries Volume 5 at www.nitcast.com (you’ll get Kindle, PDF, or EPUB versions) or in Kindle form on Amazon.

You certainly don’t need to have read the earlier volumes to make sense of this one, but if you need to get caught up, the first four books are available as a bundle at a discounted rate!

Nate folded to Queens to two shoves that turned out to be from AK and JJ; the story he’s sticking to is that both players were at the bottoms of their ranges and he would make the same fold again. Then he lost QQ to AA to get pretty short and then lost AQ < 87s if memory serves.

Leo jammed the nut flush draw into a made full house. He claims it was a punt but he’s harder on himself than any poker player I know, so probably it was just a cooler.

Although cashing the Main Event was clearly going to be a very significant notch in his belt, Carlos had the stones to stick his stack in twice near the bubble, once jamming KJ over a raise and once open jamming KK for 15 BBs very close to the money. Thankfully neither was called. Interesting question whether turning the Kings face up and eating a one-round penalty would be the most +EV play, but that’s neither here nor there. Ultimately he was busted after shoving 77 into a raise from a “mangy” Russian woman who slowrolled him with Aces. It was a poetic exit, at least!

Former podcast guest Clayton Fletcher is still in the hunt with nearly 600K chips and a top 10% stack! Follow him on Twitter @claytoncomic.

As for myself, it’s tempting just to tell you I lost with Kings vs Aces and let you assume it was an unavoidable cooler, but the sad truth is that 5-bet jamming the Kings was probably the worst option available to me. Here was the situation:

It was early on Day 2, my stack was slightly above average, and the table was generally pretty decent, though not amazing. There was one really tough player (Jonathan “driverseati” Tamayo) on my immediate left. He’d been flatting a lot of my opens, running and playing well, and generally making life difficult for me.

He opened for 1200 UTG at 250/500/50. UTG2 called. I began the hand with about 58K, and both opponents covered. I made it 4800 with KK, which I think is already a mistake. I don’t mind squeezing Kings (though it isn’t as automatic as it may seem), but think my range should be very narrow here, probably just QQ+ and some big suited Aces, because of how strong both opponents’ ranges are and often I’ll be called and end up playing OOP with a lot of money behind. Neither of these players is very likely at all to 4-bet, so I should use bigger sizing, probably 6K.

Anyway, Jonathan threw out two more orange without much hesitation, making it 11,200, and I’m embarrassed to say that I didn’t think too hard before I shipped my stack.

In retrospect, there’s little doubt that his range for calling a shove will be exactly AA, which means that no matter how light he might be on this 4bet (and to be honest, because of how profitably he can flat call and how quickly he raised, I suspect he isn’t that light to begin with), jamming can’t be better than either calling or 5-betting small and calling it off (the latter only being good if he has a very 4betting range, which again I doubt). Nate pointed out, and I agree, that even folding would be better than jamming.

So… I dunno what else to say. It was an unlucky spot, and I know a lot of people would have gone broke there, and it’s possible I would have lost most or all of my chips even if I’d called, but the more I think about it, the more I think my play was pretty clearly suboptimal.

Maybe next year!