What a Fucked Up River

Full Tilt Poker, $25/$50 NL Hold’em Cash Game, 2 Players
LeggoPoker.comHand History Converter

Hero (BB): $5,498
SB: $5,674

Pre-Flop: 9 9 dealt to Hero (BB)
SB raises to $150, Hero raises to $498, SB calls $348

Flop: ($996) T 7 Q (2 Players)
Hero checks, SB checks

Turn: ($996) T (2 Players)
Hero bets $750, SB calls $750

River: ($2,496) 9 (2 Players)
Hero bets $1,250, SB raises to $4,426 and is All-In, Hero calls $3,000 and is All-In

Results: $10,996 Pot ($0.50 Rake)
Hero mucked 9 9 (a full house, Nines full of Tens) and LOST (-$5,498 NET)
SB showed 8 J (a straight flush, Jack high) and WON $10,995.50 (+$5,497.50 NET)

Granted I don’t even have that strong of a full house, but my hand is way under-repped, and I think he’s shoving any flush for value here. I also thought I might be able to represent a blocking bet, and he is capable of bluff-raising the river:

Full Tilt Poker, $25/$50 NL Hold’em Cash Game, 2 Players
LeggoPoker.comHand History Converter

BB: $4,832.50
Hero (SB): $14,099.50

Pre-Flop: Q J dealt to Hero (SB)
Hero raises to $150, BB raises to $450, Hero calls $300

Flop: ($900) 3 4 Q (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($900) 8 (2 Players)
BB bets $555, Hero calls $555

River: ($2,010) 9 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1,234, BB raises to $3,827.50 and is All-In, Hero calls $2,593.50

Results: $9,665 Pot ($0.50 Rake)
BB showed K T (King Queen high) and LOST (-$4,832.50 NET)
Hero showed Q J (a pair of Queens) and WON $9,664.50 (+$4,832 NET)

This was definitely a tough call, because although his line feels bluffy, a lot of people just can’t check-raise bluff the river. This guy certainly thinks of himself as tricky, but he doesn’t seem to be very sophisticated about it.

What swung me was that I don’t think he had good reason to expect me to bet the river. My line looks a lot like I’m trying to get to show down cheaply, and after checking flop and calling turn in position, I’m very likely to call the river if he bets but happily check if he gives me the chance. That means he ought to be betting with his strong hands.

Despite what the stacks look like here, I actually finished slightly down to this guy over four heads up tables, thanks in no small part to that first hand.