Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (2 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (SB) ($2955.50)
Button ($4698)
Preflop: Hero is SB with Q
, K
Button bets $30, Hero calls $20
Flop: ($60) 6
, 7, 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $44, Button calls $44
Turn: ($148) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $111, Hero raises to $666, 1 fold
Total pot: $370 | Rake: $0.50
Results:
Hero didn’t show Q, K (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $369.50
People don’t like it when you try to take the betting impetus away from them. I like leading here with KQ because it’s ahead of a lot of air but can’t do anything but fold if you check and your opponent bets at this flop. Plus, he may fold some random A-high hands, so it’s not like you’re only folding out worse.
Still, I think his calling range is quite wide on the flop: any pair, any draw (including sometimes a bare T, but probably not a bare 4), and some random floats. Because of the nature of the board, though, he’s probably not flat calling here with strong hands like two pair or better. That means he almost never has a full house on the turn.
The overbet serves to polarize my range to monsters (probably A6 or better) and bluffs. And although I happened to lead with air here, I’ll often have some piece of the board when I lead into him. Thus, from his perspective, it doesn’t look like I’ll often get to the turn with a hand that needs to bluff like this.
If he’s really stubborn, he could still call a standard check-raise on the turn with a lot of his range, but the overbet makes it very difficult. He definitely can’t float with his draws because he’ll often be drawing dirty or dead.
Even with one pair, he has a lot to worry about it. Ordinarily, we think of leverage as meaning a small bet (relative to the pot) that nevertheless forces a big decision on an opponent. But there’s no reason the bet has to be small. Because of our stack sizes, an overbet actually achieves some decent leverage here. Even when he has a one pair hand, he has to fear a huge river bluff.
In the end, my expectation was that he would not call with less than trips. In light of the flop range I gave him, that translates into a huge percentage of folds. It’s an expensive bluff, but relative to a pot-sized check-raise, I think the overbet provides vastly disproportionate fold equity.
Great analysis as long as villian can fold A8 and TT.
Exactly, well-put. My thinking was that the overbet would fold those types of hands where a pot-sized check-raise would not.
Very well played…against a dangerous player such as yourself, I would really hate his bet/fold with A8 or TT…even if he is on a complete float on the flop, checking the turn behind and betting the river would be a much more credible line with a weakish made hand or a draw if a scare card hits on the river.
-bruechips