Bluff Catching

The last two months have been pretty brutal. Certainly part of that was due to whiffing the WSOP and a few failed shots at 40/80, but even my regular games have not been going well. Unlike in past downswings, I don’t feel that I’ve experienced extraordinarily brutal luck. There were some unfortunate spots, but it’s hard to shake the feeling that I haven’t been playing my best. I’m still in the early stages of evaluating what may have gone wrong, but one thing I noticed was a dramatic dip in my $ won without showdown. That could be due to playing too loose on early streets or bluffing badly, but I think at least part of it is due to folding too often. Thus, I played some 10/20 heads up today with a focus on catching bluffs. It went well:
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $20.00 BB (2 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($2080)
Hero (BB) ($2020)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6, 7
SB bets $60, Hero calls $40

Flop: ($120) 2, 4, 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets $80, Hero raises to $210, SB raises to $380, Hero calls $170

Turn: ($880) K (2 players)
Hero checks, SB checks

River: ($880) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets $1160, Hero calls $1160

Total pot: $3200 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
SB had 9, 10 (high card, King).
Hero had 6, 7 (two pair, sevens and sixes).
Outcome: Hero won $3199.50

As I checked river, I even thought to myself that this would be a good spot to overbet bluff. I didn’t know much about him at this point, and a lot of draws did get there, but given stacks I felt he’d probably make a big bet on the turn if he had a draw. This next one was just a few hands later:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $20.00 BB (2 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($2020)
Hero (SB) ($3619.50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7, 8
Hero bets $60, BB raises to $200, Hero calls $140

Flop: ($400) 2, 4, 7 (2 players)
BB bets $280, Hero raises to $619, BB raises to $1820 (All-In), Hero calls $1201

Turn: ($4040) 6 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($4040) 10 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $4040 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
Hero had 7, 8 (one pair, sevens).
BB had A, K (high card, Ace).
Outcome: Hero won $4039.50

This was probably the closest decision of the match. It’s a good bluff card for him, but it does legitimately connect with a fair number of hands he could play this way. Given that I’d caught him a few times already, I thought he might be less likely to bluff. I do think he can value shove any K here, and I probably do call if river is a low diamond:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $20.00 BB (2 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($2694.50)
Hero (SB) ($5002.50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, Q
Hero bets $60, BB raises to $220, Hero calls $160

Flop: ($440) J, J, 3 (2 players)
BB bets $300, Hero calls $300

Turn: ($1040) 4 (2 players)
BB bets $580, Hero calls $580

River: ($2200) K (2 players)
BB bets $1594.50 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: $2200 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
BB didn’t show
Outcome: BB won $2199.50

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $20.00 BB (2 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($3753)
Hero (BB) ($3942)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8, 8
SB bets $60, Hero calls $40

Flop: ($120) 2, 10, 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets $100, Hero raises to $277, SB calls $177

Turn: ($674) K (2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets $525, Hero calls $525

River: ($1724) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, SB checks

Total pot: $1724 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
SB had 3, 4 (one pair, twos).
Hero had 8, 8 (two pair, eights and twos).
Outcome: Hero won $1723.50

I was calling river.

These last two were against a different opponent:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $20.00 BB (2 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($2160)
Hero (BB) ($2436.75)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 10, A
SB bets $60, Hero calls $40

Flop: ($120) 10, 4, K (2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets $100, Hero calls $100

Turn: ($320) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets $260, Hero calls $260

River: ($840) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets $660, Hero calls $660

Total pot: $2160 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
SB had 9, 2 (high card, King).
Hero had 10, A (one pair, tens).
Outcome: Hero won $2159.50

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $20.00 BB (2 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($2911)
Hero (BB) ($4783)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7, 7
SB bets $60, Hero calls $40

Flop: ($120) 2, Q, 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets $100, Hero calls $100

Turn: ($320) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets $260, Hero calls $260

River: ($840) K (2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets $620, Hero calls $620

Total pot: $2080 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
SB had 6, 9 (high card, King).
Hero had 7, 7 (one pair, sevens).
Outcome: Hero won $2079.50

Pretty weird spot here. The river bet is definitely thin, but I didn’t think he would check better very often at all. Based on this that’s probably wrong. I’m surprised he thought I would bet the river, but he clearly wasn’t wrong.

3 thoughts on “Bluff Catching”

  1. On the QQ hand – I understand that he could have a K or made a flush, but isn’t QQ pretty much the top of your range right there? Are you going to be slowplaying a J or a flopped boat very often for the first two streets in a 3b pot vs. a guy that clearly hates folding on dry boards? If not, then I think you just gotta call with the QQ. Sure, he could have hit, but isn’t he barreling the turn with a bunch of hands besides those that include Ks and diamonds? I mean…56..A2..A5…A4…complete air…. If so, folding QQ there is too exploitable IMHO…

    -bruechips

  2. Brue,

    I do think it was close, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if you’re right. What swung my decision was the game flow. I hadn’t made any big folds to him yet and had already caught him in two big bluffs. It’s hard to say whether that makes him more or less likely to attempt it again here, but I do think that folding to one of his shoves (whether he had or not) will encourage future bluffing, which is definitely something I wanted to do. As you can see, I caught him in several more big bluffs after this hand as. If I call him down each of the first three times, even if from a strictly game theoretical perspective I am far enough towards the top of my range to justify that, he very well may slow down. Since the aggression was something I was looking to exploit, I think that’s an additional argument for folding when the decision is close. It reminds me of a situation Mike Caro talks about where he was playing a guy in heads up 5-card draw and the guy wasn’t adjusting his starting range at all. He wouldn’t call a raise with worse than a pair of Jacks, and while it would have been optimal to raise every hand, Caro folded occasionally just so the guy wouldn’t catch on to how badly he was playing.

    Thanks as always for the very good comment. And congratulations on your Cardrunners hook-up, I just noticed you’ve got some videos on there and am looking forward to watching them.

    • Good points – I don’t play heads-up very much at all, and I probably don’t pay as much attention to “game flow” as I should since 1) I’m usually playing a bunch of tables and don’t always remember which ones I’ve been active on, and 2) in theory, equilibrium play should be history independent, so at least I’m not getting exploited if I’m not paying attention to game flow, even if I may be passing up some opportunities to profit more by exploiting game flow as you did vs. this guy.

      I hope you enjoy the videos – I’d really appreciate and value any comments you have.

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