Another Set That Might Be Foldable (or not River Shovable Anyway)

Edit: Sorry I didn’t have time to do commentary for this one when I posted it. I’ve added some discussion below.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $6.00 BB (5 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) ($685)
BB ($768.15)
UTG ($2340.05)
MP ($673)
Button ($1457.95)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9, 9
UTG bets $18, MP calls $18, Button calls $18, Hero calls $15, BB calls $12

Flop: ($90) K, 5, 9 (5 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $12, UTG raises to $60, MP calls $60, Button calls $60, Hero calls $60, BB calls $48

Turn: ($390) J (5 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets $199, 2 folds, Hero calls $199, BB calls $199

River: ($987) 8 (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets $2063.05 (All-In), Hero calls $408 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $1803 | Rake: $2

Results:
Hero had 9, 9 (three of a kind, nines).
UTG had 5, 5 (three of a kind, fives).
Outcome: Hero won $1801

This one is actually kind of similar to the other hand I posted about bottom set on a very dry board getting multiway action. The twist here is that the BB is a mega-fish and expresses interest in the pot by leading into the pre-flop raiser on the flop. UTG’s range for raising the flop is potentially wide, since he could be semi-bluffing/isolation the fish. Getting cold-called by three other players ought to give him pause, though. How many Kings are there in this deck?

I chose not to raise the flop mostly because I thought some of the other players would be able to get away from a King but that BB probably had one that he wouldn’t fold later as long as I didn’t raise now.

I guess UTG probably can’t do anything differently here. I don’t think he should try to shove the river for value against me alone, but the fish probably will call with worse, so I suppose he has to value shove anyway. If I show aggression at any point in the hand, even on the flop, though, I think that 55 ought to hit the muck. When the action goes bet-raise-call-call-raise and there are no draws on the board, bottom set is no good.

10 thoughts on “Another Set That Might Be Foldable (or not River Shovable Anyway)”

  1. Not quite sure what he’s hoping to accomplish by shoving the river. I would think a pot bet would get BB to call (if he thinks his set is tops) more than the overbet shove. I get the whole river overbet, but this does not seem like the spot to do that with 3 way action and everyone check / calling the whole way…

    • It’s not really a river overbet. Hero only has $408 left and BB only has like $491 left. So effectively it’s only about a half pot bet or less bet for both opponents if I am not mistaken.

      • Good point. I didn’t look at the stack sizes; I assumed seeing UTG overbet that other players were similarly sized. If that’s the case, then he’s 3 barrelling with bottom set – and the river is a half pot bet essentially. Maybe I’m missing something, but when I hit a set, I want stacks. Particularly when stacks are half pot on the river.

  2. …..and since it’s only a 1/2 pot sized bet, and checking is the “proper” play for UTG, why the hell is Hero checking? 🙂

    • I do a lot of things that rely on my opponents not playing in the manner that I believe to be best. In fact it’s how I make money at this game. I think UTG is actually more likely to shove 55 than to call with it when I take this line, for one thing.

      • But the fish is more likely to call with you leading -vs- a shove, call?

        Besides, if UTG folds, he gets the “was I bluffed?” vibe started. 🙂

        Poker is soooo much easier away from the table. (but still hard, for me anyway, lol) I think it’s probably pretty close no matter how it’s played.

        PS. Tell your girlfriend/webmaster it’s 2010! (copyright at bottom of page. hehe)

        • Thanks for the comment, Kitty. It’s definitely close no matter what. It’s definitely easier for BB to call flop and turn with me calling rather than leading out. I don’t know about the river- IMO it looks stronger for me to bet than check, but God knows what or whether a fish would be thinking.

    • There’s no hand UTG is leading turn with that isn’t shoving this river for value when checked to.

      I agree this isn’t a value-shove with 55. Every combo draw hero could have peeled given pre-flop has hit. QTss, 67ss are ahead, and KQss (discounted) is never calling river.

      K9hh is the only hand hero villain beats that gets to this river given hero’s line.

      • He can’t shove for value vs. me. The complication, and the reason I played this way, is that BB is a super-fish. I think that makes it a lot closer for Villain, since he doesn’t necessarily need to be ahead of my calling range to show a profit.

        • I thought about this hand a little, it can’t be a bad shove with 55 without a solid read on hero’s game and the fish’s calling range being significantly wide.

          Even if hero isn’t ever calling with a worse hand, you only have 3 combos in your range villain plausibly loses to, whereas fish’s range is significantly wide and probably pays off enough to make a shove ok.

          So yeah, like you said, even if he can’t shove for value vs you, there’s likely enough value vs the fish to make it ok.

          If you ever peel flop with something like a gutty or pair + FD (67ss, 78ss, KQss) he can probably show a profit given your not calling this river bet 100%

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