I Guess This Counts as a Bad Beat?

This one of his first 4-bets, but this guy was very aggressive with his 3-bets pre-flop, and I had an inkling he was light. My hand isn’t a bad one to jam pre-flop, but I decided just to call and check-shove if I caught any piece. A gutshot, an overcard, and a backdoor flush draw looked good enough, and I’m not sure if the results speak well for my plan or not:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $50.00 BB (2 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($7037.50)
Hero (BB) ($6200)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4, A
SB bets $100, Hero raises to $400, SB raises to $950, Hero calls $550

Flop: ($1900) Q, 2, 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets $950, Hero raises to $5250 (All-In), SB calls $4300

Turn: ($12400) 6 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($12400) Q (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $12400 | Rake: $1

Results:
SB had Q, 4 (three of a kind, Queens).
Hero had 4, A (one pair, Queens).
Outcome: SB won $12399

I won some medium pots and this one to get back to about even against him (he only started with 3K, so he was up on me even before the hand above):

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $50.00 BB (2 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($9052.50)
Hero (SB) ($9468)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8, 9
Hero bets $150, BB raises to $450, Hero calls $300

Flop: ($900) Q, 6, Q (2 players)
BB bets $400, Hero calls $400

Turn: ($1700) 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $666, BB calls $666

River: ($3032) J (2 players)
BB bets $1800, Hero calls $1800

Total pot: $6632 | Rake: $1

Results:
Hero had 8, 9 (flush, Queen high).
BB had 8, A (one pair, Queens).
Outcome: Hero won $6631

After this one, he wanted to stop and play a 5K heads-up sit-and-go instead. I declined, and he quit… but only for a few minutes, eventually returning with $5K on a new table. We played a bit more, and then he asked for a $3K freezeout. That is, we’d both buy in at a new table for $3K, neither of us could reload, and we’d play until one person had all the money. I agreed, and we played a very tight game for about half an hour with neither player gaining much traction.

Then, he asked if we could just flip for it (ie both players go all in blind). I declined, just because flipping has always seemed like an intrinsically -EV wager to me. I’m not talking about the $1 rake that Stars takes, but rather the risk that some unknown opponent won’t actually call blind like he’s supposed to. No matter how small the risk of that, it’s still non-zero, and I just see no reason to flip with someone unless he’s both good action (this guy wasn’t particularly) and seems pretty trustworthy. I told him we could talk about it after the freezeout, and then he offered that he’d only finish the freezeout if we could flip afterwards. I gave him a hard time about that, since he was the one who asked for it in the first place and set the terms, and he relented.

Then, about half an hour later, he asked if we could just call it because it was getting late (he was in Athens) and he had a test the next day. I didn’t feel like I had much of an edge on him, but it was pissing me off that he kept trying to change the terms, so I told him no. He kept pleading, asking me why, etc., and I finally asked him, “Why do I have to justify this to you?” To his credit, he agreed that I did not, and we kept playing.

That must have been karma, because he eventually won the freezeout:
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $50.00 BB (2 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) ($2123.50)
BB ($3921)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, 10
Hero bets $123, BB calls $73

Flop: ($246) 8, A, 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $169, BB raises to $350, Hero calls $181

Turn: ($946) K (2 players)
BB bets $650, Hero raises to $1650.50 (All-In), BB calls $1000.50

River: ($4247) 3 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $4247 | Rake: $1

Results:
Hero had A, 10 (one pair, Aces).
BB had 5, 8 (two pair, eights and fives).
Outcome: BB won $4246

As annoying as it was that he kept trying to change things up, I do appreciate that he ultimately kept his word. A lot of people would have just quit when they felt like it, never mind the agreement. Had I won, I would have flipped with him, but hopefully my money is sufficient reward for his honorable behavior.

2 thoughts on “I Guess This Counts as a Bad Beat?”

  1. On the first hand: Do you know how often you’ll flop a gutshot or better? I’ve got no idea, but for that play to work I guess you’d have to flop a gutshot or better at least an x amount of the time. I guess you’re calling off about 1/12 of the effective stacks, but that’s not the end of it. Cause those x times you’re going to hit, you’ll often win a cbet from him when he b/f or you get called and play for stacks with equity x. This is way too complicated for me to figure out, but maybe you or one of the readers here is a math genius… Though to start calculating you’d also need a pretty good guess on what his range might be and what he’s going to do with it.
    So I guess the stacks just need to be deep enough that you have fold equity postflop, but the percentage of the time you’re going to hit and shove still can’t be too small otherwise you loose too much with the pf call. It’s a complicated game…

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