Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (2 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (SB) ($2014.50)
BB ($1000)
Preflop: Hero is SB with 7
, 4
Hero bets $20, BB calls $10
Flop: ($40) 6
, 5, 10
(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $28, BB calls $28
Turn: ($96) K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $66, BB calls $66
River: ($228) J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $166, BB raises to $654, Hero raises to $1142, 1 fold
Total pot: $1536 | Rake: $0.50
Results:
Hero didn’t show 7, 4 (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $1535.50
Note that Villain folds for his last $232.
I think Villain is bluffing a lot to get me off of like a pair of Kings, possibly even turning small pairs into bluffs. Even if he is going for value, it’s thin value: he doesn’t have a straight, and I’d be pretty surprised even to see a set from him. Since I can’t even beat his bluffs, there’s only one thing to do…
I’m confused.
Were you thinking that with any reasonable hand he would have shoved (rather than raising almost all-in)? Was there something earlier in the match that made you think he might fold here?
Or was this just a case of being pretty sure that this was some sort of bluff (even with a mid-pair), seeing that he left some money behind, and hoping for the best? Basically, taking advantage of a mistake that he made.
I think my confusion comes from the fact that I’d pretty much never ever raise less than all in here, without planning 100% to call. Probably because I played like an idiot and backed in to a straight.
Hey Carl,
Villain just really doesn’t have that many strong hands in his river range as played. This is a board that got stronger for hero’s perceived range than villains, and unless he slowplayed 55, 66, or TT on the flop, he basically never has a strong hand here.
Now, that being said – he doesn’t have many pure bluffs in his range either.
Its not necessarily that he didn’t shove – it’s just that this is a spot where he rarely has a strong hand.
That being said andrew – do you expect him to fold KT/JT here once you 3-bet?
My main concern is what a ridiculous price he’s getting to call.
Chris,
I’m concerned about the price on the call, too. I know he isn’t that strong, but do you have reason to believe that he’ll think you never bluff, and never overplay your hand? At 7:1, he doesn’t have to be right very often to make calling (even a crying call) correct.
If my math is right, you’re risking 720 to win 1048 with the bluff. So, you need to win about 40% of the time for the shove to be +EV (ignoring the metagame considerations of being branded a maniac). About the only way that’s true (IMO) is if you believe that the reason he left 232 in his stack was to give himself room to fold. Probably correct, but I certainly don’t have the guts to follow through on that one very often (unless I drop down in stakes).
Yeah very good post Carl, and that’s going to depend on villains view of hero.
I think he’s heavily weighted towards bluffs, not just because he left money behind (though that’s part of it) but because I just don’t see many value hands in his range, and it’s kind of a textbook c/r bluff spot. I do think I’ll succeed 40%: bluffs alone probably make up that much of his range, and I think he folds some value hands as well.
Just to be clear, this isn’t something I do very often either.
Good analysis, Chris. I wouldn’t be shocked if he folds JT.
You’re right that he doesn’t get to the river with air, but I think he turns a lot of hands into bluffs. Based on the way the board came out, I can probably value bet as thin as QT here, and the vast majority of my range is one pair that whatever pair he had on the flop doesn’t beat.
Wouldn’t folding JT here getting 7:1 be ridiculously exploitable?
Though, I guess that someone willing to raise almost all in and fold for the rest isn’t too worried about getting exploited.