River Overbet Bluff

I usually overbet in situations where my opponent’s range consists primarily of hands that are strong but not too strong. Particularly if this is obvious to both of you, the overbet turns even the stronger part of his range into a bluff-catcher by representing either an extremely strong hand or a bluff. Particularly since less skillful and nittier players tend to overbet only their strong hands, a well-timed overbet bluff can chase an opponent off of a hand that would have called a normal bet.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $6.00 BB (5 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) ($600)
BB ($609)
UTG ($723.15)
MP ($600)
Button ($1428.50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, 7
3 folds, Hero bets $24, BB calls $18

Flop: ($48) 4, J, A (2 players)
Hero bets $36, BB calls $36

Turn: ($120) K (2 players)
Hero bets $99, BB calls $99

River: ($318) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $441 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $318 | Rake: $2

Results:
Hero didn’t show Q, 7 (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $316

Given that Villain doesn’t 3-bet pre-flop, he’ll rarely have AA, JJ, KK, or AK. He can show up with QT or 44, but even AJ looks like just a bluff-catcher when I shove the river.