I had a bit of a read on Villain that he bet big with his monster hands and small when going for thin value. In deciding to turn my hand into a bluff, I didn’t give sufficient consideration to the fact that he really can’t raise many thin hands for value here, given how easily I could have a straight:
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $20.00 BB (2 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (BB) ($2923.25)
SB ($2604.25)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 10
, Q
SB bets $40, Hero calls $20
Flop: ($80) 10
, 3, 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $66, SB calls $66
Turn: ($212) 5
(2 players)
Hero bets $187, SB calls $187
River: ($586) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $444, SB raises to $980, Hero raises to $2630.25 (All-In), SB calls $1331.25 (All-In)
Total pot: $5208.50 | Rake: $0.50
Results:
SB had 9, 6 (straight, ten high).
Hero had 10, Q (one pair, tens).
Outcome: $5208.50 returned to SB
Hate when they have the hand or 2 you try to rep on river….
Yeah, in this case I think it was all he could have. I actually thought he wouldn’t show up with exactly the second nuts, since he would have had to have called the turn with a gutshot, but what do I know?
Sherman’s Law of Surprise River Raises:[*]
When a sane opponent calls twice on a junk board then raises on the river when another junky-looking card comes, you’re f***ed.
At lower stakes, I’d snap-fold. At this level, I’d probably have to hold my nose and call, but I don’t expect to win the pot, and the main reason I call is to let V know I’m not giving up top pair that easily, as well as to look him up.
I realize that playing by rules-of-thumb such as these is not really a good idea unless you’re too tired to think and there’s an ATM spitting out cash at the table, but I like to start with the rule-of-thumb then ask myself, “Is there some reason to think it doesn’t apply here?” I don’t think you had enough reason here to think it didn’t. Especially at this level of play, a weak read of past behavior is insufficient grounds for reversal.
[*] First formulated in a somewhat different version during my 7-Stud period.
I think that’s an excellent rule and perfectly applicable against all but the best players at higher stakes. Calling is not an option here, and I should have just folded.