The Trouble With Cold 4-Betting in PLO

13 thoughts on “The Trouble With Cold 4-Betting in PLO”

1. I think potting it is pretty standard here, unless I have eff. stacks wrong

2. Bet, not full pot, and then decide. If you don’t have any kind of read and you’re worried about being exploited then flip a coin (or use some other more precise kind of RNG if you can figure out a better GTO frequency than 50/50).

3. Ok my disclosure act.I am beginner in Omaha
   Yesterday I found this tool http://propokertools.com/pql and I started using according to limited doc and knowledge about software quality.I used to the tool to verify some assumption in Andrew post.
   The first Andrew assumption:
   “I guess I could just not 4-bet at all, but I’m getting like 1/4 of the effective stacks in pre-flop and I’ve got good Aces, so I’m giving up a lot of pre-flop value if I go that route.”
   You assumed you have best hand at preflop against 4 players.
   The implication of the assumption will be another assumption –
   indirectly you assume that your preflop equity aganst button alone is bigger than 0.5-you have some value.
   lets say the button has decent preflop 4-bet range – top 10%-15% of his range.
   What are chances that you will be out flopped with your bare aces?
   By outfloped I mean your equity change and will be s less than 0.5 after flop.

   select count(equity(myaa, flop) 0.5

   The result is ~ 6% for 10%-15%.But remembered you assumed you have VALUE preflop.Your preflop equity is >0.5 against button.

   In conclusion it looks you were “right” preflop with your 4bet.

   Now we need to answer what is a route for flop action.
   Let say you are unlucky with flop and you are behind the button.
   you do not believe in button fold equity and you feel lucky and you push allin what are the chances the turn card bring you luck?
   select count(equity(myaa, turn) > 0.5) as luckyturn
   from game=”omahahi”,board=”8d3c2h”, myaa=”TcAhJcAs”,villain=”****”
   where equity(myaa, flop) <0.5
   The answer is ~17%.And still you have another chance – river card.
   In conclusion there is a lot of your money and your equity on table to grab.
   You did not specify your reads regarding the button range.
   I will say this is the key input for your flop action.

   • Sry I meant 4 bet CALL range.You can modify the range if you do not like it my 10%-15%.

     • There is problem with formating the text.
       When I try to post the text with mixture “specials” characters something like: “,%,,='”(),/.
       The characters are reformated or not visible.These characters are used in pql query.
       In result I see some garbage or nothing.
       I posted two queries and the were reformated.
       I try once more.
       1.Outflopped with bare aces.
       select count(equity(myaa, flop) 0.5
       2.Suck on turn.
       select count(equity(myaa, turn) > 0.5) as luckyturn
       from game=”omahahi”,board=”8d3c2h”, myaa=”TcAhJcAs”,villain=”****”
       where equity(myaa, flop) <0.5

       • No success.There is a problem.

4. If he’s solid, cold calling a four-bet sure looks like a quality rundown, or a pair with straightening and/or flushing cards — maybe a big pair. The way the hand was played, you’ve got way too much equity to let it go — especially with such a dry board. I think you’re like a 3to1 favorite against top20%.

   If villain ever bets with worse, check-shove or check-call for value should be in the mix; if he never bets with worse, a bet means he hit hard so a check-fold seems logical.

   I don’t like leading with the intention of folding against a tricky opponent; too easy to fold the best hand against a shove. If you lead and villain is not a nit, you gotta call the shove, and if he’s got a set of eights, God bless ’em! If he’s got a baby set or two pair, he might not be as solid as you think! (other than a baby rundown, I guess).

5. Checking seems awful, so we’re betting. Even if you half-pot (ick) you’re still getting like 4:1 to call the shove, right? The only draws I would expect to see are gutshots, and we’re really only dominated by a set, two of which I think are pretty unlikely (though possible with a few low coordinated hands).

   Unrealistic to think we take it down 60% of the time with a ~pot sized flop bet and have good enough equity against his range the rest of the time to play it that way?

6. i don’t like the idea of potting it. i think we can bet less to induce a raise or a fold by him, but potting would give him an easy shove/fold decision. the board isn’t draw heavy enough for us to build value vs his draws. i think we just want to take it down, yet give him the opportunity to make a mistake trying to push you off your hand.

   i think your 4b range is pretty narrow, and his calling range is fairly wide given the stack sizes and his position. but this is a great flop for you. unlikely for him to have hit any 2pr hands or sets. the best we can see from him is A456, the rest of his range i would guess to be 789T type hands or JJxx+. i don’t see him paying you off with any of those hands, but we also don’t want him to improve any kind of 8xxx hand.

   if he knows you have AAxx, will he try to make you you fold your 1pr hand to a shove?

7. I don’t think there is anyway you can get away from this hand, no matter what you do. Best to take it down now, with a pot bet, which you’ll win >70% of the time, because there is no way you are folding after that bet.

   I have seen too many losses with A-A OOP trying to get fancy and check, only to lose to two-pair or trips by giving a free card.

   -JP

8. I think it’s either B/F or B/C. Vs most i’m saying B/F.

   This is a good flop for your hand. Villain really can’t have any two pair or set combos, as he’s unlikely 3-betting any 22xx or 33xx hands pre. So its 88xx or we’re ahead.

   If you think he’s going to jam any 8xxx hand figuring he has some FE, you simply have to b/c.

   I don’t have much experience deep in PLO, but without a nut suit i think i’m flatting pre – as I don’t trust myself on how to play it post-flop.

   I don’t think checking is good – I think you turn your hand face up and he plays perfectly.

9. I really don’t see a problem of betting and getting it in against Villian. 88xx only makes up a small percentage of his range, and I think, from my previous experience at 1/2, that the majority of people at 1/2 PLO who have 4567, 5678, 6789, 789T, 89TJ, 89TQ, etc., are going to say, i know he has aces but I can’t fold now that i took the flop, take their preceived flip with you and shove after your flop bet, so I think bet / folding is really bad with the price you’ll be getting. With there being no flush draw out there, I think once you 4 bet, you have to get it in on a 832 rainbow flop.

10. Disclaimer: I mainly play plo5-plo10 deep and some plo25. So, feel free to ignore me, but…

    “Hero: Tc, Ah, Jc, As … I’ve got good Aces.”

    Those aren’t “bad” aces … but I’m never four betting them, mainly because you’ll rarely have a great hand on the flop and villian will have a much better idea of where he’s at. And at least at my stakes anyone calling you with a rundown is going to shove if they hit any card (except, if they are good, when an A hits). Even if a bunch of broadway comes out, you can easily be 40%.

    Then think about hands like: Ad 2d Ac 8c which is ahead of you pre-flop and can much more easily shove post, even Ad 2d Ac 4s (which, I assume, you aren’t 4-betting) is better vs. your hand than you are against the previous double suited one (and is much more likely to know when it’s better to shove).

    Of course the more I play plo, the more I think pre-flop is 90% gambling anyway :).

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