When NOT to Overbet the Nuts

I’ve posted a lot lately about overbetting, so here’s a spot where overbetting with (functionally) the nuts would be a bad idea:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $6 BB (8 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

SB ($696)
BB ($645)
UTG ($785.70)
UTG+1 ($493)
MP1 ($368.50)
MP2 ($201)
CO ($109.30)
Hero ($747)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Kc, Kd.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $18, 3 folds, Hero raises to $50, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls $32.

Flop: ($109) 5c, Jh, 4d (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($109) Ks (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $66, UTG+1 calls $66.

River: ($241) Qs (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $111, UTG+1 raises to $270, Hero raises to $631, UTG+1 calls $107 (All-In).

Final Pot: $1249
Results in white below:
UTG+1 has Qh Qc (three of a kind, queens).
Hero has Kc Kd (three of a kind, kings).
Outcome: Hero wins $1249.

In this case, the hands that can call an overbet, namely QQ and JJ, will in all likelihood check-raise the river anyway. Better to make a smaller bet that can be called by hands like AA, AK, or KQ, since you probably won’t miss out on value from lower sets anyway.