I figured Villain’s river range was nuts/bluffs, and given that this was a backdoor draw and the flop draws missed, there’d be enough bluffs to warrant a call. I hadn’t counted on this:
PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha High, $1.00 BB (5 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com
Button ($655.40)
SB ($257.95)
Hero ($258.45)
UTG ($318)
MP ($50.75)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 3s, Tc, 5c, Th.
UTG calls $1, 2 folds, SB completes, Hero checks.
Flop: ($3.60) 4c, 9d, 2d (3 players)
SB bets $3, Hero calls $3, UTG calls $3.
Turn: ($12.60) Ts (3 players)
SB bets $12.4, Hero raises to $42.8, UTG folds, SB calls $30.40.
River: ($98.20) Kh (2 players)
SB bets $90.95, Hero calls $90.95.
Final Pot: $280.10
Results in white below:
SB has Ks Kd Jd 7d (three of a kind, kings).
Hero has 3s Tc 5c Th (three of a kind, tens).
Outcome: SB wins $280.10.
I would like to think I would have folded, but you never know.
A typical .50/1 player is just about never bluffing here, because you told him on the turn that you had a set (not necessarily tens – it’s not wrong to just call on the flop with a dry bottom or middle set on a moist board, then raise the turn when nothing scary happens). There’s really nothing else you can have.
Depending on how deeply he thinks, he’s either going to (a) simplistically assume that no one ever folds a set, which is not all that far from wrong in .50/1; or (b) reason that you’ll fold a set only if you believe he has QJ or KK, which given his play so far would be a very difficult sell; or (c) bet only with the nuts (QJ) because he’s the sort of player who only bets the nuts OOP on the river.
So, I think it’s a fold unless you have some indication that he’s a goofball.
Also…
I would have preferred to see you make a pot-sized raise on the turn. There are a whole bunch of hands in his range that are only slightly worse than 2:1 underdogs, and you gave him 2.23/1. If you pot-raise, far fewer of these hands are immediately profitable for him to call, and those hands won’t have as much +EV.
Also, also…
Because it’s a four-card game, you have to give opponents somewhat more credit for hitting two-outers on the turn or river than you would in NLH.
If this were NLH, there’s no hand he could have where he could have flopped, say, a diamond draw or straight draw and an overpair, but obviously in PLO that’s entirely possible (also, hands like KK99, KK44, KK22, KK94, etc.) The title of this post suggests you were completely blindsided, With more experience, you’ll see that these kinds of draw-outs are fairly common. Annoying as hell, but common.*
(*Remember what I said about your recent bout of beat-induced tilt being mental toughness training for playing PLO.)
Great read, Lin. It’s nothing I shouldn’t know already, but you said it very succinctly and convincingly.
Andrew,
I am trying to find your email address so I can email you directly. Sorry if I had to do this wrong way.
thanks,
Sean
I agree pot the turn.
River is tough, esp if he’s raising most AQJdd hands pre. I think it’s a fold though vs most .5/1 players who haven’t otherwise been proven aggro. Your hand is pretty face up as a set on the turn, and I doubt he tries to bluff you off it that often.
Vs good players he could def show up with an A345dd type hand here