Edit: Sorry, I made a significant typo when posting this. As many of you realized, the BB is actually 250K, not 500K.
With the WCOOP coming up in barely a week, here’s a “What’s Your Play?” that focuses on tournament play. This is a hand that occurred early at the final table of last week’s PokerStars Sunday Million, which I was hosting. I’m not able to get the hand history, but here are the relevant details:
Hero and Villain recognize each other as the two most capable players at the table and have been the most active so far. Hero has accumulated a huge stack through heavy (but controlled and generally very good) aggression and good luck on the final table bubble. He’s been appropriately aggressive so far at the final table, with a lot (but not too many) min-raises pre-flop. He’s twice 3-bet the other medium stack at the table, once picking up the pot and once folding to a shove. Hero and Villain have not yet tangled at the final table.
SB 1,878,787 after posting 125,000 SB
BB (Villain) 7,774,233 after posting 250,000 BB
UTG 7,026,299
UTG+1 2,550,514
UTG+2 3,909,483
MP1 2,201,536
MP2 (Hero) 32,406,413
CO 2,840,833
BN 4,061,972
Everyone has anted 25,000. Action folds to Hero, who min-raises to 500,000 with T8s. Action folds to Villain who re-raises to 1,450,000. What’s Hero’s play?
If you want to call, please give a general idea of how you will play post-flop: will you look to float, bluff-raise flops, play any pair like it’s the nuts, etc.?
This is a little late going up so I’ll probably wait until Monday night or Tuesday to post results. Please leave your comments and discuss the hand here!
Is the amount posted by the BB 500k or 250k?
Regardless,
1,450,000 is almost 19% of the BB’s stack. Hero can easily flat, or raise to 3.2million and still only risk 10% of his stack. Being in position makes calling attractive, but at this stage of the tournament, I think it makes sense for the hero to pick on the middle stacks (BB, UTG, and maybe Button).
I would raise to 3.2million. If I had a read on him, I could make this raise and fold because I am so deep. Otherwise, based on the size of BB’s raise, I think I have to view him as pot committed. If BB shoves, I plan to call.
Preflop: I’d call
Postflop: I’d continue on with 2pair, OESD or Flush combo draws. Unless I’m reading the stack sizes wrong Hero has 60% of the chips in play. Even though he could gamble I’d really hate to double up someone that I thought was capable with a limited holding.
I’d expect BB to play a little cautiously as there are huge ICM implications. With 4 people around 5bb’s I’d expect him to have a fairly big hand OOP. AKs, AA-JJ.
TPNK I’d consider folding unless I had a gut-shot or backdoor flush and depending on how much it is. If he leads for 1.2 – 1.6 mil I’d consider calling and then folding on the turn if I didn’t pick up my draw outs. Although I think you can expect a shove on the turn from villain depending on the texture of the board.
2p, combo straight/flush draws I’d try to maximize getting it all in. If he checks flop I’d consider checking back. On the turn if he leads out I think I’d just snap min-raise to make it look like I’m playing the big stack. If he checks back the turn and I completed my draws I’d either tank shove or bet 1.4ish trying to induce.
I’m not sure which since I’m not 100% sure how villain would respond.
I really think Hero is in an ideal situation. He’s got the big stack, a thinking villain, 4 short stacks, position and a hand that can flop a lot of equity vs villains range.
P.S. Thanks for answering my question on how you keep track of players. I played in a small 70 dollar buy-in and came in 4th out of 60. I made some sick reads, excellent calls, great folds and a lot of situational bluffs that won me the pot. My table mates were the ones making comments on how well I was playing. 🙂
I think the only choice is raise all-in or fold since the pot will be 2X his stack on the flop. Since this is the first time he’s re-raised me on the final table I’ll fold and wait for a better spot.
How often does villain need to be ‘bluffing’ to make a shove profitable? Around half the time in this situation?
Getting a nice price to flat call even against the top 4.5% of his range. If you do call I think it will play pretty easy post flop. Top pair on a dry board vs the top of his range (TT-AA, AQo+) we’re winning 51-48.
I’m awfully out of practice but those are the questions I’d be asking :D.
“Top pair on a dry board vs the top of his range (TT-AA, AQo+) we’re winning 51-48. ”
This assumes you’re equally likely to get it in post-flop with all parts of this range. I think that’s not true.
I’m not really a fan of calling in this spot, as it seems spewy to stack off post flop with one pair against a range that could easily be super strong, and you aren’t really getting the implied odds otherwise. Yes calling puts Villain in a tough spot but if he has the overpair or flops TPTK he’s going to go with it. If Villain has yet to reraise Hero yet there’s no reason to think he’d start doing it light now, especially since he stands to win a lot by waiting for the shorter stacks to bust, and this final table is probably way higher in equity than he’s used to playing, which could make anybody tighten up. Yes Villain is aware that Hero knows this and could be exploiting that image, but trying to level someone at this stage of the Sunday Million seems ambitious. As such I don’t like shoving either, as I expect Villain’s range to be unbalanced and super strong, and even if it isn’t he could still have a hand anyway. Plus I don’t want to give the next best player at the table talking chips. Just fold and keep on min-raising.
I think your reasons are a perfect reason to call. It’s not to often that you can narrow an opponents range down preflop. You’ll be able to play pretty well post flop with your opponents range so narrow and position.
Also even though it’s not ideal to give the other best player at the table chips in this instance it may help you in a round about way. I know that we play to make first(with such a chip lead) but having the second big stack on the other side of the table almost guarantees that the other short stacks won’t get away with walks or maybe even light shoves if they have another player to fear at the table.
Obviously you busting him adding his chips to yours is the most ideal situation but giving him another 1 mil to also pressure the short stacks I think sort of helps you. Maybe I’m just off my rocker on that view.
FWIW I think as a massive chipleader you’d much rather see chips distributed evenly among your opponents than have a rival. What you’re saying would be more true if Villain didn’t have such a commanding lead, but he’s really in a great spot to bully the table, and he can do that most effectively if everyone is comparably short-stacked I think.
pretty much what bond2king said. w ~30bb the prolly experienced BBs gonna 3b hands he has a plan with (i.e. wanna get it in most of the time if not always), esp considering icm (3 stacks arond 10bb, and he covers the rest too), so FE is an illusion here. effective stacks are just too shallow to play post flop imo, as we can only stack off w 2p+ OTF comfortably, and as dana pointed it out we only gonna have a 2x PSB left. i muck.
easy fold and calling is not an option. we have too much equity when called if we 4 bet ai to consider calling and if we have no fold equity on a 4 bet shove than calling is not a good option either. so its either raise or fold and I would fold
and apparently villain has 30bb not 15bb…didnt catch the typo firs time around… so in that case I would shove
Even though villain is on the shorter stack, his 25-30 bb stack is perfect for either 3betting to induce or folding to a 4b shove. His range is actually very polarized here, as it’s either a premium hand or junk just hoping to take it down preflop. Because of the numerous short stacks at the table, he’s much better off just calling with broadway cards. Small pairs would also probably just call or overshove (though not by much). Basically villain knows hero has to fold/4b shove (min 4betting here is not really an option just because you would have too much equity in the hand to fold to a 5b shove). You hate to double up the other good player at the table. I would probably fold here, but a part of me wants to just call (against this particular opponent and his remaining stack size) and shove over any cont bet on a J high board. Obviously if you hit the flop, you can just call down or see what happens on later streets.
You said that “Hero and Villain recognize each other as the two most capable players at the table and have been the most active so far.”. So I don’t think they want to fight each other unless they have a solid hand.
If Hero is very active Why villain didn’t re-raise all in ? I think the villain’s stack size is very good to resteal and when villain raises to 1,450,000 he gives hero such good odds to call.
I think the range of villain is polarized :
1. He’s got a premium hand [JJ+,AQs+] and wants to extract values from hand dominated or want to call an all in.
2. Villain is commited in the pot and he knows that hero knows that. Hero can not raise all in without a strong hand, so vilain can fold a weak hand and if hero calls he can win the pot with a cbet because
the hand of hero is weak.
I think that the resteal villain’s range is composed with any As suited, some Kx suited, [22-TT], any broadways.
So I think that hero can call due to the odds.
I think that due to his polarized range, villain will bet any flop.
The plan post flop is to call with at least a pair or a draw and let villain bets till the end.
Nice comment. Don’t think you can say “Villain is committed to the pot… so villain can fold.” though By definition being pot committed means you can’t fold. I think what you mean to say is that Villain thinks he looks committed to the pot, which means he can raise-fold weak hands? Of course if Hero realized that Villain thought that…
Andrew,
This is looks like a leveling raise.
If the hero were against a donk villain, then obv play is to repop/shove since villain has ridiculous ICM considerations given so many small stacks around. But given that you say that hero realizes villain is thinking/capable, then this looks very much like an induce.
So, fold.
Considering this is the first time they tangled, as you said, I would consider the villian’s range to be far narrower out of the BB than other people seem to be speculating. Although he is 30BB deep, he’s one big bet away from being pot committed. I would get a little meta with this hand, and allow a call, then potentially an easy fold if he enters. No doubt he is going to be taking a shot again – I’d rather give him the impression he can run over me right now, then nail him when I have something more substantial than 108s.
The thought that he is making this raise to induce and the thought that he is highly polarized is, or should be, incongruous, because if he induces a light 4 bet shove from hero, why wouldn’t he do this with AQo, AJs, or 88? Surely those well dominate hero’s light 4 betting range. As it stands I still like the fact that our cards are the same colour and its equity v villain’s call range so would shove.
7 way chop pre-flop obviously! (isn’t that how most sunday mil FTs play out anyway?)
As played – blinds are 125k/250k right? ICM has to be a consideration here (?) – with over half the table being ~10bbs, that puts huge pressure on BB not to want to bust.
If he’s smart and realizes this, I really only expect him to have a strong 3-betting range here, since he knows just how easy it is for you to jam and put you in a crappy spot.
If he’s 3-betting wide and not aware, shoving has to be +cEV, but high variance. Personally i’d rather nit out than double up a competent player.
So – calling can’t be terrible and T8s is so pretty! Folding most textured high flops I brick, floating decent mid flops, and prob calling w/ any decent pair / folding to most 2 barrels on ‘bad’ bluffing cards since I doubt he multi-barrel bluffs too often given his position relative to the other stacks.
For those that want to fold, if BB turned over his cards and showed JJ are we still folding? What if he flipped them over and showed AhKh, AdKd, AcKc? (if he showed me AsKs I’d be more inclined to fold)
You’re not only playing your cards, your opponent and position but also the situation. You have a good thinking villain out of position with a heavily weighted hand of AA-JJ, AKs+(my guesses). You’d expect him to realize ICM implications and as others have said either has the goods or a stone cold bluff(which to me seems highly unlikely).
Giving your best opponent chips is less then ideal. But busting him would be.
I can also understand playing the big stack and shoving. But to me that just seems like we’re shoving because we can. I’d much rather see the flop for 1 mill more as a 70-30 dog then risking 6.5(estimate) more as a 70-30 dog. You also act last, you’ll be able to gain more information after the flop.
Maybe he checks?
It seems because Villain will have a SPR of 2 that everyone just expects him to fire until either we fold or he gets it all in on any kind flop.
You can still jam the flop if you’d like. Make it look like a stop and go. Even though that play might be dated.
Given this I think I call, hope to hit a flop with a ton of equity (more then a bare top pair) but play cautious otherwise.
“Hero and Villain recognize each other as the two most capable players at the table and have been the most active so far.”
Maybe its a leak but it seems worth taking a shot at flopping a big hand and having the chance to knock out your number one opponent considering how many chips hero has. It seems highly likely that Villain is going to c-bet 80% plus of the flops if you just call pre and then you can just decide if you have enough equity to get it in. Against other opponents I would just fold pre to the raise.
Hmm on the other hand I guess there is a lot of merit to avoid coin flipping(equity of the flop) against a tough opponent when you don’t have the initiative in the hand…I still think I make a crying call pre.
ICM is big factor here so hero can put villain in very tough spot whatever he do with 4 betting pre or just flating and then shiping on flop, so depending on table dinamic i might flat or just 4bet to like 4m/c or maybe just shove over him
i think most presure on villain can be made with just flating and then shiping on almost any flop cos imo if hero shove pre villain wil def call something like tt+AK but he will fold some of those hands on some flops
I don’t think villain is getting too much out of line here given stack sizes. Of course there’s always the possibility that he knows a 3b looks strong and therefore does it light. That being said, I’d put him on a pretty tight range here. That’s why I don’t really like a 4b. I’m pretty sure villain has already planned what he’s going to do when 4b and he’s probably not gonna make a lot of mistakes in that situation. ICM makes it tough for him to get the money in, but I’m sure he realized that before he 3b.
So that leaves either calling or folding. Hero has to call roughly 1 million and villain has like 6 behind, so the implied odds aren’t that great, though the fact that he’s the best player at the table besides villain makes me want to try and bust him. So I think I’m ok with both calling and folding, personally I probably prefer to fold. If I’d call I’d look to get the money on the flop with an OESD or FD. With a pair it gets tougher, but I’d probably call at least once on Jhi boards or lower and I might just fold to a single bet on a Qhi, Khi or Ahi board. The reason for that is that I’d expect him to have big cards very often, so a high flop should hit him a lot harder than a Jhi or lower flop.
I think I fold here. I have so many chips in play I can pick better spots to steal and make chips.
I don’t think there’s any reason to pass on it if it’s a +EV move. I just doubt that it is.