PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (2 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
BB ($819.50)
Hero (SB) ($1000)
Preflop: Hero is SB with 6♥, J♣
Hero bets $9.60, BB calls $5.60
Flop: ($20.80) 2♠, 5♣, 5♦ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($20.80) K♦ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
River: ($20.80) A♠ (2 players)
BB bets $12, Hero calls $12
Total pot: $44.80 | Rake: $0.50
Results:
Hero had 6♥, J♣ (one pair, fives).
BB had 8♦, 10♥ (one pair, fives).
Outcome: Hero won $44.30
With my line, it looks a lot like I have either A-high trying to showdown cheaply or air that I declined to bluff. In either case, I’m likely to bet the river. Thus, it doesn’t really make that much sense for Villain to bet if he paired the Ace, and it makes even less sense for him to try to value bet a K. There’s also not much point in bluffing if he has Q-high, so my Jack starts looking pretty good.
Of course this all falls apart if Villain realizes how FOS his river bet will look and expects me to call with J-high 😉
The example is excellent and your logic is flawless.
If your opponnet himself makes such calls he is probably bad target.
Remember ? Long time ago you wrote some great stuff about profiling.
Example
You start executing HU river allin-c\r bluff and see very high % of success.
Later you are becoming non-believer – calling river allin c\r J-high.
I’m pretty sure if I was villain I’d feel soul crushed and leave the table at that point. 🙂