Q: You were talking about a hand you played on Day 1 of the recent BCPC . You didn’t specifically say the blinds and stack sizes, but I can estimate them from your write-up and my guess is that the blinds were 100/200 (no ante?) with effective stacks about 11,500 (with you having him covered at about 15k). It was a limped pot and you had A9o in the small blind and the villain was in the cutoff. Flop was Jc 9c 4h and the villain led for 450 into a pot of 1,000. You raised to 1,650, he re-raised to 6,100 and you shoved. Your logic was that “you were very sure he was on a draw” because “nothing else made sense”.
My questions are:
1. Why couldn’t villain have had J9s (3 combos), or 44, 99, or even JJ (between 3 and 9 combos)? While monster draws are clearly a big part of his range, if you include these other possibilities where you are drawing very slim or dead, I think it may become a fold.
2. Assuming you are right and that only draws are in his range, why not call his re-raise to 6,100 and then fold the turn if the flush comes and otherwise shove? If you are putting him only on draws, I assume it is only fairly big draws (not just a bare straight draw) so there is no fold equity. I agree getting it all in is not bad since there is dead money in the pot, and for a part of his range (actually Axcc which is what he had) you are close to a 65% favorite. However, for a decent part of his range (e.g., KQcc, Q10cc, 87cc, 54cc, 64cc, 43cc, A4cc) you are a little behind or basically 50-50. I didn’t work out the math, but this probably makes you somewhere between 55% – 60%, but closer to 55% overall since at the top of his “draw range” he might be 60% or so. He’s probably not folding on the turn regardless but you at least save 5k in chips when a club comes on the turn.
A: Very good question, thanks for asking. You’re correct that the stakes were 100/200 without an ante.
One very important detail of the hand is that Villain was in the CO, meaning that he limped behind two limpers and had absolute position post-flop. This is why I’m comfortable excluding at least 99 and JJ from his range: I’m nearly certain he would have raised them.
As for 44 and J9, I didn’t expect him to make such a large 3-bet with those. Given the board texture he has to expect me to have a lot of draws in my range, and with hands that strong he should be trying to induce. I would have been much more worried if he’d made it 4500 or something that could give me the perception of fold equity. His large raise made it look like he was trying to push me off of the hand. (As an aside, I think that even with his actual hand if he’s going to get it in anyway he’d be correct to try to induce me to shove on him with draws. The nut flush draw has very good equity against other draws, especially the ones that I might consider folding to a large raise).
The only other hands that could beat me would be one-pair hands like AJ or overpairs. Again I think it’s unlikely that he overlimped these, and if he did, I don’t think he’d consider them strong enough to get all-in on the flop against an unraised BB. So I can rule those out with the 3-bet.
Once narrowing him down to draws, there’s still the question of why not wait for a safe turn? You’re right that although I was a relatively large favorite here, I’m probably only a small favorite against his full range. The problem is that I’m out of position with a hand that isn’t likely to improve. Even knowing that he’s on a draw, I still don’t know which draw he has. If I check-fold a club turn and he has QTo, that’s a pretty huge disaster for me.
In these draw vs. made hand flips, the draw usually has an informational advantage on later streets because he can represent draws besides the one he has, whereas the player with the made hand is always in the dark. This and the fact that I’m out of position mean that I’d rather take a flip than try to play it out the rest of the way, where I’m liable to get outplayed.
Do you have a question for the Thinking Poker Mailbag? Please leave it as a comment below!
I was wondering if you could break a hand down from the WSOP. After I watched it I couldn’t think of a time that I’ve read a play like it. Although it might be common I thought it was interesting and any comments on it is appreciated.
Here’s the hand in question and then my revelation at the end of it:
Martin Staszko had the button, and he raised to 3.5 million. Pius Heinz might be picking up the pace even harder here, and he made another reraise to 10.1 million. Staszko called the three-bet, though, and they went off to the 7d 2h 10s flop. Heinz continued right out into the pot with another 9.8 million chips. Staszko has been acting quickly today, and once again, he didn’t waste more than 30 seconds sliding the call into the middle.
The Ac dropped on fourth street, and Heinz reached for chips again. Any pot that goes past the flop is significant now, and another 21.3 million from Heinz made things quite serious. Staszko was undeterred, though. He raised all in for just over 60 million, and Heinz’s cards hit the muck rather quickly.
Heinz: J9o
Staszko: KQ (can’t remember if it was suited or not)
After I watched the hand I realized that Staszko was basically playing with 3 cards if he didn’t believe Heinz had an A. Calling the flop he could basically barrel any Q, K or A on the Turn or possibly the River if Heinz checked the Turn. The commentators even suggested that Staszko could be calling the flop with A high. Basically Staszko knew that if any Q, K or A hit that he could raise for value. With an A he knew that he could bluff it and with a Q or K he could raise for value.
I just thought it was an interesting play. Maybe it’s standard and I’ve just never noticed it before.
This line is utilized frequently with low dry boards in HUSNG.
Our input:~100BB, 3bet action preflop, the board,HU meta-game adjustment: Heinz picking up the pace,etc.
Common output on flop: both players miss the board.
Their common perception and frequnltly actual ranges are overcards plus weak draws.
They both see the opportunity to attack the core of opponnet range.
They both see volnurabiliry of their holdings.
A player who will tell better story about his range will win the pot.
In my opinion every turn overcard could be the trigger for such play not just Ace.
By the way fantastic final. I wish Olivier Busque could break this hand live.
I do not like Norman Chad break down:bad dressed ,insane,alien,old clown.