Well this is embarrassing. After arguing with several posters who insisted that I didn’t provide any sufficient information about my opponent in this week’s “What’s Your Plan?”, I went to post results and just realized that I actually did leave out an introductory paragraph giving some brief reads on my opponent. I don’t know how this happened, because I distinctly remember writing it, but I’m going to give you that information now and wait until Wednesday to post results and my thoughts. If this information changes your preferred play, let us know how and why.
New Information
Villain is a well-respected Two Plus Two member who puts in a lot of volume and has a lot of success. I have him playing 14/12 with 14% Attempt to Steal and 40% Flop Continuation Bet over about 100 hands from this tournament. I believe that he would recognize my name and probably expect me to play generically well, but beyond that I don’t know what if anything he thinks of me.
So with that additional information, what’s your (new) plan?
14% attempt to steal seems pretty low. Perhaps this percentage is getting higher though as the blinds increase? I would assume he is mainly opening pocket pairs and high cards, which includes a lot of Aces and a decent number of Queens.
His cbet percentage is also low. This suggests that he checks back his showdown value a lot, and trusts himself to negotiate later streets.
It would be useful to know what he likely thinks your range for calling in the BB is. Since he min-opened I imagine it could be fairly wide. But then you are only 40bbs deep, and you know that his opening range is fairly strong and that he is a decent player.
Onto his thought process on the turn:
What does he think your check means? In the other thread you mentioned that you would lead the turn with your draws here, and that villain probably realizes this. This makes it less likely he will start betting with his pocket pairs for ‘protection’. Also his low cbet% makes me think this isn’t much of an issue for him, and that he will be relatively happy to let the hand go to the river.
Does he expect you to check Ax here?
Although the Ace is obstensibly a good card to bluff, it’s not so good if he thinks you are checking your Ax, and don’t intend to give up easily with your Qx hands.
So lets assume that despite the ‘scare card’ he doesn’t expect you to fold this turn all that often.
What does he think of double-barreling turn and river?(either with KJ, or turning his pocket pairs into bluffs?)
I think he is unlikely to do this.
1. He probably doesn’t attempt to get you off A-bad kicker.
2. He only has 40bbs. If he barrels turn and river he has to invest about 1/3 of his stack leaving him with much less room to maneuver on later hands. It feels like a relatively bad risk for him to take.
So yeah, on reflection I’m changing my mind, and think we should fold. I expect him to bet Ax here (going for 2 streets of value from worse Ax, and Qx), but I don’t expect him to be bluffing much.
Edit: The fact that the board has got quite drawy also makes it worse for him to bluff because on the face of it, you will be bluff-catching with your showdown value more.
Of course this situation depends a fair amount on what level each player thinks the other one is thinking on. Given that you both think of each other as decent players, aware that the Ace is a bluffing card, I am going with the level which assumes he thinks you expect him to bluff it, and therefore he’s not bluffing it that often.
Edit 2 (and apologies for the gazillion posts):
What I wrote above about the Ace being an ostensibly good card to bluff and the levelling that ensues is largely irrelevant I think. The ‘Ace is a good card to bluff’ thought is a bit of a red herring in the context of this example.
The pertinent facts are:
1. Your respective pre-flop ranges are relatively tight.
2. He checks back the flop, weighting his range towards showdown value.
3. You check the turn rather than lead, weighting your range towards showdown value.
As a consequence of these facts he isn’t bluffing much, either with air or showdown value turned into a bluff, nor is he protecting his showdown value against draws.
Hence you should check-fold.
(If the result turns out to be that you check-called 2 streets because Aces are scare cards, I’m going to be pretty gutted)
Reading your first couple of posts and the response that I left just a little bit ago I’m really leaning towards villain having AQdd.
Even though I know we don’t want to put villains on specific hands this one keeps popping up over and over in my mind. We’re playing an aggressive format with semi-shallow stacks (40bb’s, also not sure of structure) villain min raises and then checks flop.
Either he’s playing fit/fold or he has us absolutely crushed that it doesn’t really matter what comes on turn and river that he’s try to get hero to bluff/bluff catch.
It would be better if villain was a fish since weakness means strength and strength means weakness. (I learned that from a movie. 🙂 )
I hope we called all the way down so we can at least see what villain had.
He has pretty tight stats for a 6 max tournaments. Of course this is only 100 hands so maybe he just hasn’t gotten cards or has some other reason for playing tight (e.g. likes to play tight early then open up). Given the new information about the type of player he is and that he only cont. bets 40% (so it seems like he balances it well with how often he hits the flop) this seems like a value bet to me and that he has an A. So I don’t want to continue with this hand OOP and fold.
I too would fold. 14% is basically all pairs, broadway, and suited Aces. And at %40 what is he c-betting? I’m guessing either made hands or the driest of dry boards. You could probably take over pairs and queens out of his range, but that’s about it. He’s probably checking back draws, and I could even see him checking back a set. We’d have a hard time rep’n either flush since we didn’t lead out, and if we improved to two pair with a king that could easily complete a double gut shot if he had JT. I think the least likely thing he has is a mid to low pocket pair, because if he had TT or 99 why would he turn it into a bluff?
Starting with his stats obviously his range looks A-x heavy…
So probably his flop check was for pot control with showdown value hand (AK,AJ…). The turn A gave him Top pair most of the time with a small chance of bluff a scare card. I don’t think he had a diamond draw, cause his flop check , and the Ac means not a club draw… But he knows that you are good enough to play a draw passively so you can’t check-call and represent OOP a flush or straight at river.
your options at turn are:
a) check-fold because you are behind most of the time OOP with small chance to improve or,
b) check-raise to represent something strong (set,two pair and you miss the opportunity at flop) because you know his range is one pair and follow through at river… The turn check-raise looks to strong because he knows that you know the A is good for him and even he knows that you are capable to do this with draw, and there are many, but it’s difficult to continue with just Top pair…
I think it’s still a turn call, check/re-eval the river.
Board: Qd 8d 6c Ac
Hand 0: 51.303% { KsQh }
Hand 1: 48.697% { 22+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KQo }
This is about 13.7 in PokerStove. He could be betting extremely wide since we’ve checked the flop and turn. The Ace is the perfect bluff card for him. He could easily have 55, 77, 99, 1010.
If we figure he’s not betting a Queen or weak Ace’s(I removed A9s and A10s/o, he might bet those for value though at this point so it’s subjective) since it has some show down value:
Board: Qd 8d 6c Ac
Hand 0: 56.609% { KsQh }
Hand 1: 43.391% { 22+, AJs+, KJs-KTs, JTs, AJo+ }
I still think he could be betting all of his air. That’s the reason that I’ve kept in the JTs, KTs, 22+.
Interesting to see the equity calculation. (did you take out the diamond combinations of KT, QT, JT, Ax which he probably bets on flop? might not make that much difference anyway)
1. What’s the plan for the river? If your ranges are right it looks like we have decent equity but that might not be so important if we can’t play the river accurately.
2. Is the Ace such a great bluff card for him? Couldn’t Hero have played his Ax like this, and be intending to check-call down?
3. In particular if Villain has 99 or TT, does he gain from bluffing? If he runs into Ax some of the time is it worth it just to get us off Qx?
4. I feel Villain won’t start betting Qx on the turn, but will bet A9 & ATo to get value from Qx and any worse Aces Hero might have.
I didn’t take out the diamond combos. I think villain running at around a 40% cbet in a 6m tourney is either a trying to play small ball poker or just playing fit-n-fold early.
Pre 1.
I don’t think he gains a whole lot by betting the flop with his good diamond draws. You don’t want to scare of worse diamond draws. Also if hero has Ax it’s sometimes worth the small risk of letting hero draw to 3 outs if villain has a Q. It’s unlikely that hero has a straight draw (57), although maybe.
Lets say villain has AQdd, there’s very little risk to letting hero see another card. You have tptk with a redraw to the nut flush. If villain even has K10dd or Q10dd and hero has say 99 or 77 you don’t really want those hands to fold on the flop since you have so much equity that I think it’s ok to give a free card in hopes that hero takes either a stab at the pot because hero views villain as having a weak holding.
1.
I still think a check call on the river as long as it’s a reasonable bet. 1/2, 3/5 pot sized. I could see a check raise with trip Q’s but maybe not 2pair if it completed either flush draw. Both hero and villain have seemed to play the hand so passively that I don’t think that either wants a big confrontation so early. (or so it seems)
2.
I think an Ace is always a good bluff card when you’re the pre-flop aggressor. Hero has shown nothing but weakness by calling the pre-flop raise in BB then checking both the flop and turn. Now villain hasn’t shown uber aggressiveness either by min raising and then checking the flop but he’s at least in position.
3.
I think on the turn it’s worth bluffing with JJ-22. With double flush draws and 2 overs even though your hand has showdown value I think it’s pretty marginal. If villains plan is rep either flush, A or Q on the river I think he has to bet the turn. Other wise I think he gets snapped off on the river if he tries to thin value bet JJ-22. (not that he’d value bet JJ-22 if he had them)
4.
The A9, A10 betting could also happen. I agree that unless villain has AQ that he’s most likely not betting Qx on the turn now. Even though the A9/A10 were in his pre-flop raising range I’m not sure how often he raises those UTG in a 6m.
I’m still a fan of calling the turn and then checking the river. Calling a 1/3 – 3/5 pot sized bet. Any pot bet or over bet I think we can fold.
Not much is changed for me with this added information. Villian knows his stats and he probably knows that we know his stats. I think I’m now more comfortable calling the turn and check-folding the river, although I think I’m still check-calling and not ruling out a possible check-raise with a club on the river in hopes he folds some aces(if I’m wrong I still have a decent stack at low levels). I’m now check-folding more times than prior where prior I was almost always check-calling him down. I’m not sure if I can call a river shove or even 500, but it’s worth the 150 on the turn to see what he does on the river…I can probably call about 400…I also think I’ check-folding to a diamond river bet
im gonna call the 150 he request on the turn and :
check fold the river if a club comes.
chech raise the river if a diamond comes cause the FD on the flop was on diamonds.
check fold if a str card comes but not king. If King bet half pot.
if blank card comes bet about 180 chips and hope to go on a cheap show down.if raised fold.
If you bet half the pot when a king comes and he shoves do you call or fold?
hi my friend, too difficult for him to shove i think without the nuts since its not a 2 dollar tournament + the fact he is a profitable player to raise allin. Despite this,I couldn’t call him all in but i would bet trying to get valie from my two pair. If i got raised all in i have an easy fold. Sry for my poor english.
You mean if the turn was a K and Hero bet it? That would be an awfully big raise and I wouldn’t be sure what to make of it, but there’s a good chance I’d end up calling. I’d generally be happy about getting raised on a K turn and would probably 3-bet if he made a more normal sized raise.
I meant if a King comes on the river. I was just thinking with a 40% c-bet he could be checking back a set. If so then there are a lot of hands that can beat you that makes sense with how he’s played them so far; 88, 66, AKs+o, JTs+o, A6s & A8s. Plus if it’s the K♣ or K♦ it completes a number of flush draws. When you lead out I think you’ll only get value from one pair Aces. Would he call JJ or below with at least 3 over cards? Maybe JJ-99 since our line looks pretty weak so far. So my thinking is he’ll call with one pair Aces and maybe JJ-99, fold other pairs and busted draws, and re-raise/shove with two pair (that would beat our 2P) or better. That’s why I’d rather just check/call in that situation, especially at this stage of the tournament.
Why do you like betting a K on the river better than checking it?
i can get value from naked ace. but the important is that i will choose how much will i lose from better two pair A 8, A 6, or a SET cause i think these hands can only call. if i chech my two pair and villain bets 90%pot i am in difficult situation. I prefer to bet 50%pot and get called by hand i am beaten and rarely by naked ace which i beat rather than i chech and have a difficult decision on his begger bet. Because the tour is big i think is very predictable to check on the river so as to bet him misdraw, i believe is he has mis draw he will chack behind.