What’s Your Play? Top Two on the River

50 thoughts on “What’s Your Play? Top Two on the River”

1. I guess I’ll start by stating the obvious:

   Villain led into a four-man field on the flop. This can indicate a set that doesn’t want to risk the flop getting checked around, or a draw. There are no flush draws, so JT is the most obvious draw, and it gets there on the turn. A third common candidate for leading out in that spot is a top-pair-type hand that doesn’t want to check-call or check-raise.

   Hero shows plenty of strength by raising the flop, and it’s hard to see Villain having continued with a weak top pair hand with UTG still in the hand. Often I would doubt that Villain has the self-control to check a set or better on the river here, but if Villain is very good, there’s no reason to rule out a big hand for that sort of psychological reason.

   My first instinct, backed up only by these very basic kinds of considerations, is to check behind. Villain should have plenty of better hands in his range, and although KQ isn’t the bottom of our range, Villain can’t have many hands between KQ and what really is the bottom of our range. But I haven’t even come close to thinking this hand through completely, so I’ll be interested to see what other people say.

2. Check it back I think. Your only other option is bet-call. I think bet-fold would be the worst option because I can’t see how you get called by worse.

   1. Villain’s range for donk-calling the flop: {KQ, 77, JT-probably with back door flush draw, possibly AT or AJ with back door FD}

   2. JT made it, and it’s reasonable for him to be going for a check-raise on the river. 77 is probably check-calling.

   3. You are unlikely to have JT as I guess you would bet the turn, so it is possible that villan could check raise the river with AT or AJ, assuming he has those hands in his range, which would be the reason for betting intending to call.

3. I’ll have to think about it more in the morning, but I’m tempted to check back. Preflop and flop action look like he’s either on a draw or has exactly KQ/77. I don’t think he flats K7s/Q7s preflop, eventhough he’s loose. So when he leads into 4 people he’ll usually show up with either monsters (77/KQ) or draws (JT, maybe AT/T9/87dd/87ss). Honestly though, leading anything else than monsters and JT seems overly aggressive with 3 players left to act.

   I always feel stupid when I put villains on very few hands, but to me nothing else makes sense in this spot. The draws aren’t gonna call a river bet and you’ll value town yourself against his monsters. And it makes sense for him to check JT/77 on the river because you don’t have any hands in your range that can call a bet but won’t bet themselves. You’re not raising on the flop with one pair hands (AK is possible but really a looooongshot imo) and he can’t make anything from your draws by betting on the river.

4. I check it back

   I definitely don’t want to be b/f here, and there is only a few hands that he could of turned into a semi bluff by the river that we are ahead of if he raises the river bet, like AJ,AA,AK other random draws or pairs with back door flush possibilities. However like stated above we are behind a good majority of his range when he flats if he isn’t floating. If we bet I don’t see us getting called by worse in this spot besides AK or AA (if that even) and if he jams it puts us in a gross spot.

5. I’d check behind just to see what he has for future information. He might check shove less than KQ (repping JT or 77) and if he does you cant call.

6. and yes i do realize that checking down top two is totally pansyass.

7. Ok, so I’m apparently going to go against the grain and say:

   bet/call $150.

   …my reasoning is roughly:

   1) Either Hero or villain not raising KK or QQ pre. is unlikely.
   2) Villain can have JT or 77 on the flop, esp. with UTG still to act. But can also have hands like AK/KQ/KJ/AJs/ATs/K7/Q7.
   3) SB can obv. have JT on the turn, but it’s very unlikely he’s checking it again on the river when Hero checks behind.
   4) 77 while possible is still much more likely to lead river, esp. given read that villain doesn’t get to showdown much. Also given #3 his range presumably should be wider than just JT, so 77 would be the first thing to add to it.
   5) To follow on from #4 b/f river with KQ seems better than x/c.
   6) Floatish hands that check turn going for a x/r like AdKd, AdTd, AdJd now know they aren’t winning. Then there’s the air and floating hands that missed turn, and even K7 might bluff.

   …so bet $150, any 2 pair can maybe call, lots of stuff can be turned into bluffs but 77 shouldn’t and anything better really has to bet river. So call any raise.

   • I think you can take 1 pair hands out of his range. Even though that might explain his turn and river actions that doesn’t explain his flop actions.

     Even though UTG flatted villains original raise there’s always a small possibility that he has KK/QQ and that UTG might also call or possibly even re-raise.

     If villain continues on with 1 pair hands he most likely has very little equity against possibly 2 people out of position. If sb villain has a 1 pair hand I think he should fold with an UTG pre-flop raiser still left to act and being OOP the rest of the hand in a bloated pot.

     Interestingly enough the more and more I work on this problem the more and more I feel it’s going to be one of those where Andrew was villain in the hand.

     • Note that UTG is only 100bb deep, but Hero is 250bb deep. Do you still think villain should always fold AK in this spot? Or never donk bet it?

       I was probably being too generous with KJ though, and not sure about AQ … I guess that’s too generous too.

       • I think the more money you have behind and the bigger the pot the less attractive TPTK.

         The reason is that when you have only one pair hands your villain has to have a worse one pair hand *and* has to keep putting money in.

         In this case if villain(sb) had AK hero(hj) would have to have KJ/AQ/K10 for villain to be beating him. Not only that but hero in position gets to dictate how much money goes into the pot by either folding to villains bets, raising or even checking behind.

         I’m far far from an expert. I’m really just recalling what I’ve read here and other places. In the end my view of looking at it could be completely wrong, I just like conversations and discussion on hands to get my poker fix. 🙂

8. I agree with James Antil’s line, especially point #2 and #3.

   The fact that players are so deep seems important to me. For example, I don’t think villian takes this line on the flop with K7 or Q7 in a normal stack game, but might in this game. Deep stacks also mean the villian should not check the turn and river with the nuts (sets on the turn, straights on the river) if he hopes to maximize value. Doesn’t villian have to bet 77 on the turn in case the straight hits on the river, and doesn’t he have to bet the straight on the turn for value and to be able to bluff later hands when he misses?

   Andrew, are you ever raising this hand preflop in MP instead of flatting?

   I purposely worded my input mostly as questions, since I don’t play poker. I appreciate any comments.

9. James and Russ–I think a lot of us are thinking that Villain would not have played K7 or Q7 pre, nor would he have bet-called the flop raise OOP with a Broadway gutshot.

   • I don’t see why villain wouldn’t play K7s or Q7s from the blinds, at least some of the time, given he’s supposed to be good and agressive. Andrew has said that when deep he prefers A2s over AKo.

     For similar reasons I expect villain to “float” a lot on the flop when he has 4 outs (~16%), given Hero only has 10% of his stack in the pot (and he’s already put money in etc.).

     Shawn makes a good point about AK/KJ though …

10. I think it is unlikely that he has a hand that will call a value bet. He’s more likely to have a busted draw or a hand that he was alway planning on turning into a bluff. Although he could also have the nuts or a weaker hand that has us beat. I think the busted hands/bluffs are more likely, much more so because of the type of player he is. So I think the plan is to bet an amount that makes us look like a weak make hand in order to induce a bluff. I’m not exactly sure what that best amount is. Maybe $190.90, hoping he raises anywhere from $800 to all-in. If you bet pot, then you have about $900 behind and I’m not sure if that will look like to him that he can bluff you as you’ll be getting almost 2:1 on a call.

    • I’m assuming that is range for check-raising the river is slightly polarized to more bluffs than value hands because a) he is aggressive and b) he hasn’t played with you before. I’m giving him credit for donk betting and calling with a wide range of hands on the flop, including not just made hands, draws, and semi-draws, but also pure bluffs. If I’m off on this assumption and his range for check-raising is balanced or slightly polarized to value then I think the answer is to check the river.

    • What busted draws do you have in mind? AJ/AT?

      • Yes, AJ and AT for the draws, hands like QJ and QT for the semi-draws, and small suited connectors and pocket pairs for the pure bluffs. He knows that his donk betting and cold calling your raise into two people will look strong and he knows you know that, so I think he could make this play with a total bluff expecting you to bet one of the next streets. If you don’t, and he has to show 56 suited, then he can play off of that on future hands.

11. Let’s say his flop bet was good spot but his flop call gave his bet carte blanche.
    Villain realizes he projected narrow and strong range on flop -QT or KQ or set.
    Turn card only magnify(color out?) the strenght of his range.
    River is blank.

    The key question is:
    Did Villain call flop with anyghing worse that QT or QK or set?
    Or
    IS KQ the bottom of his range?

    It is very unlikely.-But he knows that his line projected perfectly this assumption.

    If the answer is YES- he knows that the only good spot will be check raising river.
    If he made str8 do the same.
    I do not see how you can exclude str8 from his range.
    I do not see how you can exclude sets.
    CHECK- compromise.But I have great expectation from you Andrew that you will show the better alternative.

    • The assumption: It is very likely that KQ is the bottom of his range.

      • The correction QT=JT

12. But your range and flop action is much more likely to have a piece than be some weird AJ bluffing on the end. Seems like a key points are (1) how many worse two-pairs you can put in his range, and (2) whether you can assume he calls with those on the end. More of a possibility six-handed and deep. I assume he calls with those if he has them. I will say, I think villain has to assume Andrew is betting the river, so I don’t put as much on his river check as others seem to.

    I don’t like bet-fold. I guess check.

    • I willing to buy your story.
      The interpretation of his turn and river check to get showdown rather than maxing value from ultimate nuts or good spot to c/r bluff river.
      In this case your key points will be my priorities too.
      ” (1) how many worse two-pairs you can put in his range, and (2) whether you can assume he calls with those on the end.”
      I still think that c/r bluff river is good spot.His line is great.Turn and River even better.The biggest problem is his image.-(aggro, active in good spots).

      • “But your range and flop action is much more likely to have a piece than be some weird AJ bluffing on the end.”
        This is the principle of bluffing.
        You execute the bluff when your opponent does not expect.
        My range is solid and I do not expect the c/r bluff.OK.
        If his image is passive-tide I fold my top set.EASY.

13. My first instinct is to check since I’m not sure what will call us that we beat… the straight made it on the turn and he could also have a set of 7’s… hands that we beat such as k-j or k-10 may not even call on the river… so betting leaves us vulnerable to a value cr or a bluff cr…

    only thing making me hesitate is how high his vp$ip is, and how he likes to make people fold… maybe a small bet on the river, around $80-$100 inducing a bluff from him that we can call? obviously not if he shoves, but that wouldn’t make too much sense…

14. I’m sure I’m missing thin value on the river, and I look very forward to seeing how Andrew played this, but I am having a hard time figuring out how villain gets here with a worse hand that will pay us off on the river (for the reasons explained in most of the first few responses). So like them, I’m checking behind.

    I’m intrigued by Dana’s strategy of underbetting to induce a bluff, but I can’t bring myself to fully buy into his reasoning for why villain is more likely to have a bluffing hand than one that beats ours. Perhaps I’m suffering from the “monsters under the bed” syndrome here.

    All this said, I think it’s less likely that Andrew posted this hand just to explain how solid it is to make the standard play of checking behind, so I expect to be wowed by the devious strategy he came up with to reach deep into this very good players deep stack and grab more value.

    • If I was playing the hand I would check back for the same reason (fear). I don’t play 6-max or this deep. Part of my reasoning was trying to think how Andrew would think about the situation.

15. Villain is donk betting into 4 people with a board that you’d expect UTG to c-bet a large amount of time.

    SB donks, UTG calls(?!), Hero raises, SB calls(?), UTG folds (?!)

    Your raise in position looks so squeezy, with a SB donk and pre-flop raiser flat.

    The turn completes the J10 draw and SB checks, hero checks behind. When you check behind I think villain can discount you for a straight. If you had the straight I’d think you’d want to bet something with so much money behind. Betting 300 almost sets up a PSB River shove. (1573 – (PF)18 – (Flop)160 – (Turn)300 = (Stack)1095/(Pot)1060)

    River is a blank and villain checks again. I’d be very tempted to value bet my 2 pair. Could see villain possibly calling with 1 pair hands because of our flop and turn actions.

    Our real concern would be if Villain check raises the river. If we get check raised I’d expect to see either J10 or 77. I’d discount KK/QQ as I don’t think our Villain would just call out of the SB with those hands.

    I feel like our hand is to good not to value bet but also to good to fold which I think we’d have to do to a CR. It just seems so unlikely that villain is bluffing if he check raises after calling pre, donk-calling flop, check, check. Donk calling the flop would really start setting off alarm bells since he’ll be OOP and he still technically had UTG to act behind.

    I can honestly say I’m really torn on what to do. I’d like to check behind but also call a CR even though logically it seems like he’ll have J10/77 a large amount of time.

    This time I’ll stay on the safe side this time and check behind.

    • After reading the rest of the posts I’m wondering if there is any merit to bluff shoving the river to make him fold 77 or a chop of KQ?

      I’m not saying we could get him to fold 77 and even though I thought our actions discounted J10 from our range it seems to be the only line we haven’t discussed.

      Even though on paper bluffing with top 2 seems terribad since it has so much showdown value. I’m just throwing it out there for discussion sake.

      • I think bluff shoving is bad, particularly if you are right about our flop raise looking squeezy. He has JT some of the time (again more so if our flop raise looked like a squeeze) and it looks so weird and fishy given our turn action that we’re going to get called by 77 quite a lot. I don’t think it can be worth it to win half the pot from KQ (assuming he does fold KQ).

    • Although villain might expect UTG to cbet a decent percentage of the time, if he is sitting there in the SB with 77 he doesn’t want it ever to get checked around with 3 other players in the pot. If he donks he is still getting value from all the hands that would have bet – stuff like KQ, AK, JT, as well as from AT & AJ, which may or may not have bet into 3players.

      Another thing is Andrew’s read that villain rarely goes to showdown. If villain is interpreting hero’s flop raise as strong, rather than as a squeeze, then this could indicate that if villain has a one pair hand like AK or KJ he will tend to just bet-fold it on the flop rather than call and attempt to see showdown.

      • I’m sort of on the fence regarding this leading out for a little over 50% of the pot as pot builder/check prohibit-er. Getting one caller almost gives Hero odds to continue on his draws.

        72+39+39=150

        150/39 = 24%ish

        Hand 0: 71.187% {77}
        Hand 1: 03.290% {random}
        Hand 2: 25.523% {JTs, JTo}

        Also if we had a set of 7’s in the SB it really sucked to have UTG flat. I think that really prevents SB from 4b/jamming us. When UTG folds, I’m guessing SB thought Hero was going to continue firing the turn but then hero checked behind. Even though villain most likely has the best hand I’m guessing he is putting Hero on either 1p, 2p, straight hands where betting the river villains most likely only going to get called by straights on the river if he bets. (if he thinks that we think he’s strong due to lead and flat of our flop raise)

        Villain also doesn’t put himself in the sick spot if he has 7’s of getting raised on the river by checking. He leaves hero to bluff/value-town himself with 1p/2p/bluffs.

        Interesting….. I’ll dwell on it some more.

        • My thinking was that if SB has 77 he doesn’t 3bet over Hero because it looks so absurdly strong that Hero might fold KQ. I mean how can SB 3bet with anything other than a set on a rainbow board?

          Another advantage of flatting Hero’s raise is that it allows UTG to overcall incorrectly with AK, drawing almost dead.

          I would expect UTG to have raised SB’s lead if he had a bigger set, so I don’t think SB should be worried by the flat call.

          • Generally 4-way on that flop I expect everyone to be playing honestly. It just doesn’t seem to be a great spot for anyone to be getting out of line.

    • Nice post. I’m afraid I don’t follow your argument for why the flop raise looks squeezy, though. Could you elaborate?

      • If SB was leading out with a weak hand (Qx, 7x, which looking back on it maybe that’s a poor line of think to go down) and then UTG just flats (indicating a not so strong hand) you raise hoping to get the SB to fold and UTG to fold since he most likely would have raised when he had the chance.

        I guess when you state that he seems to be a very aggressive and very good, he’s most likely not leading mid/bottom pairs into 4 people.

        I used to see it a lot when I was playing online(way lower stakes) and in my limited time playing live the old guys seem to like to do it out of the blinds vs the ‘kids’. Granted that’s when it’s head’s up, they bet and then get raised and then fold.

        Depending on the different levels your going to of “sb bets to look weak, UTG flats can’t be strong, you do what looks like a squeeze, sb wasn’t really weak, UTG folds, your hand isn’t really a squeeze but for value, sb should have the nuts.

        It just “seems” squeezy and not valuey.

        Thinking on it now I might be using ‘squeeze’ wrong. I maybe should have said ‘semi-bluff’ instead. Your not raising with pure air hoping for folds but you could be raising with draws hoping to get a free card on the turn.

16. I Check. Villain has 777/j10 or you win.
    The super sic play is to bet like 777$ and maybe he folds a set putting you on 10/j.

    • Would be a weird mind game for sure. Although I think putting up 777 as the bet would get you in a lot of trouble.

      If he has 777, then he knows that you don’t. So he can either call or fold depending on how strong he thinks we are.

      If he has J10, then he’s going to raise an amount that you can talk yourself into calling.

      Either way it’s a weird mind game for sure that I’ve never thought of before.

17. For what it is worth I think Hero’s flop raise looks squeezy too. In the sense its a squeeze because even if you are bluffing with 10/j or a10/aj on the flop, if they call they know you can get there on the turn. Add the fact that because SB lead out , its like impossible for UTG to raise you off a semi-bluff without top-set being afraid SB will sb call/utg raise/sb re-raise. Plus SB has to be afraid after he lead out his *777* when you still re-raise you might have qqq/kkk. So in a way you are squeezing value by getting them to fold(or just call but never re-raise) hands they normally wouldn’t because you can rep a big hand, you can have a big hand, and you can get there if they call.

18. Hero shouldn’t be, probably won’t be, and isn’t in SB’s eyes, 3 betting QQ-KK pre. Therefore, check back. Easy game.

    • If Hero doesn’t 3bet KK/QQ most of the time his 3bet% has to be 0, IMO. I doubt that, ergo. he has to be 3betting them _most_ of the time (they can still be in his range, but they aren’t a big % of it).

      • MP v UTG in 6 max is a very unique pre flop spot. I don’t know if I’ve ever talked about it with Andrew, but many players versus many players, don’t have a 3 bet range in this spot. We don’t have any information on UTG, namely his 4bet% and UTG raise 1st%. But I would wager that its pretty likely 3 betting QQ here would be a big mistake even if we didn’t think about our entire range in doing it.

        In any case, the SB, if he is good as described, will at least be highly aware that Hero might not have a 3bet range here preflop.

        • Funny you should mention that. I just recently discovered that overall I’m losing money 3-betting MP vs UTG. It’s something I’ve been working on.

        • Interesting … I guess this is because either your range has to be so narrow everyone calling you has a great read on it (QQ+/AK, say), or so wide that UTG can just 4bet everything?

          Or am I missing something else?

          • I’d be interested in hearing why this is too. I guess the sample size can’t be huge, so variance may be relatively important.

19. Estimating this guy’s range is clearly a lot tougher than it was last time. I am just really confused by this spot and the only coherent thought I can muster at the moment is that he is unlikely to play JT this passively.

    Nonetheless, preflop this guy’s range is really wide with all kinds of suited connectors and pairs. The flop action narrows his range enormously, because strong aggressive players don’t bet into 4 players and then call a big raise by the preflop aggressor with random gunk. In fact, JT and possibly KQ are the only holdings he could reasonably have. So notwithstanding my confusion, I am going to check this back, because I just can’t see anything weak being in his range for him to turn into a bluff or pay us off with.

20. Just check and keep life simple. Worse hands that call you never donks into 4 people and then call a raise on flop with just one pair. Just Check.

    He is not protecting anything on the flop. he only betted 1/2 of the pot: which means set or Open ended. Eventhough its horrible to donk with Open ended into KQX flops as these flops hit tight range very well. Villian definately has 77.

    Its very rare to 3bet 77 out of SB vs UTG opening range to pick up dead money, when 77 has tons of value in multiway pot.

21. But i really beleive that if the river was T or higher, villian would almost always bet to get value and not slow play his set as he is risking hero checking behind.

    However 4 is a irrelevant card. River is a great card to check Straight and sets, because villian thinks that hero will definately bet his top range as villians range is capped after he checks the river. Villian knows hero’s range pretty good and he knows hardly anyone checks back two pair, AK (very lil chance), KJ etc on irrerelevant river (4).

    Villian is reppin a KJ type hand at best when he checks back the river, and he wants hero to beleive that KJ is in top of his range. But no one donks KJ into 3 players out of Blinds, they usually wait and see what happens on flop to figure out strength of their one pair (KJ) type hand with actual raiser behind them on KQX type flops.

    It is clear to see that Villian is reppin KJ type hand, but in all acutality he has much stronger hand. i.e. 77 and he is expecting hero to bet his two pair, KJ type hand.

22. Another point that we really haven’t gone over is Hero’s turn check. Are we going for pot control? Are we trying to induce bluffs from our villain?

    Some other things to note is that our aggro opponent has suddenly stopped being aggro. Pre-flop call, lead/call flop. Since then he’s gone check, check. (Funny, I just remembered that in the last tourney I played I took the same line when I had flopped the nut flush out of the SB. My villain(MP2) only had a PSB left for the river though and he jammed.)

    Which would seem out of character for villain.

    If we were going for pot control and believe villain has either J10 or 77 then we got our wish and I think we should check behind.

    If we were trying to induce a bluff we’re now at a spot that we have to bet something that will induce villain to CR. Someone else had mentioned a 150 call the check raise of 600-800ish. I think if we were going to take this line I think that sounds about right.

23. Hello,

    I am not very good at poker so it is difficult to me to guess what kind of hands vilain can donk bet. This is my guess : KQ, K7, Q7s, JT and 77.

    I don’t know why you raise on the flop so this how I think about it:
    If hero bets
    Question 1 : what kind of hands worst than top two pairs could call ? I think that K7, Q7 could be the ones.
    Question 2 : Is it depending on the amount ? I do not think, because when we see the turn and the river’s cards, the value of the hand on the flop is nearly the same on the river (there is just JT which improves).
    Question 3 : can vilain fold a better hand ? no
    Question 4 : can vilain check-raise with a bluff ? I don’t know.

    I think we are at the boarder, top 2 is ahead of 50% of vilain’s range, so I don’t know what to do and check.

    Ps: in the last french version of card player magazine there are 2 of your articles, I am so glad to read you in french

24. First of all, thank you for these, I send my own hand discussion e-mails out to my poker league and never get any responses. In the end I end up debating with myself… This hand really feels like it could be KQ, KJ, 7s,8s,9s or 10-J for villian. I would normally think villian has a hand with some showdown value especially after his river check so I’d want to bet. However, this is a very aggressive and good player and this entire hand he’s played pretty passively after his bet and then flop call, which seems very suspect. After we raised the flop we’re either squeezing or stating we’ve got a strong hand so him calling makes me think he’ll either try to steal later or he’s got a hand that can beat ours and he can wait for us to value bet or he’s on the good draw, which hits. I think we’ve probably maxed out the amount we can win with this hand and minimized the amount we’ll lose so I’m good with a check here. I’m thinking since he’s very “opportunistic” you probably bet the river like another 159 to induce a bluff-raise you could call and I’m just a nit, but I can’t wait to hear what you did/why/what happened!

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