This week’s WYP is a little different, in that I don’t have a strong opinion about what’s best. I was actually hoping some of you smart people could help me out there, in particular with regard to how V2’s question and timing on the turn influences his range. My own, possibly results-oriented thinking was that it might weight him towards weaker draws. With a flush draw or open-ended draw, I think he might call without really thinking about it. If he’s asking, that could weight him towards gutshots or something like an 8 that has a chance of being good (in his eyes – no one’s saying he’s a great hand reader) plus some outs to improve. I also thought Gareth’s suggestion was interesting that V2’s indecision may have been “between calling/raising with a hand like 86s”.
I say I may be results oriented because I bet 3000, V1 sighed and folded, and V2 called with Jh 8h.
Value Betting
As many of you identified, Hero is very likely to have the best hand on the river. The question, however is not only how but whether he can get value from it. Especially in multi-way pots, where people tend to be more tight and passive, it can be difficult to get value from medium-strength hands.
I agree with Gareth that “we should assume we have the nuts versus V1”. We can’t, however, assume that he calls with worse when we bet again into two people on a card that improves some of the hands his JJ or whatever was beating on the turn.
I don’t agree that we have the nuts versus V2. His range looks more to me like busted draws or trips, meaning he either has us beat or can’t call a bet. In Bond2King’s words, “V2′s range is mostly missed draws or maybe an 8 or a 6, but he’s not calling with a 6 anyway.”
The key consideration behind betting, then, is whether the times V1 calls with worse outweigh the times V2 holds better. I’m still not sure of the answer. I’m also not sure whether Hero can call a river bet, and if so whether doing so is more profitable than value betting.
Scenario A: Villain 1 bets 3000, Villain 2 folds
Although V1 is very unlikely to hold a better hand than ours, I also think he’s very unlikely to bluff or value bet worse. Even with KQ, which would be oddly played to this point, I don’t see what he can expect to be called by. Passive live players suck at thin value betting anyway. Gareth suggests the possibility of a frustration bet, but he didn’t seem frustrated and in any event with something like 99 he may still be thinking he’s got a chance of winning if it checks down. Passive live players like seeing showdowns. I’d be inclined to fold.
Scenario B: Villain 1 checks, Villain 2 bets 3000
I feel better about calling here, but it’s not a lock. The scared money read makes me wonder whether he’d bluff into two people when so many draws obviously missed. He might, though, and I think there’s a good chance a live read could help me decide. Probably I’d call.
Scenario C: Villain 1 bets 3000, Villain 2 calls
I’d fold without thinking too hard about it.
In fact I like cbeak’s comment that, “another aspect of checking that I think is good is that it is lower risk insofar as we can see how things play out before deciding (avoiding, for example, hero bets, v1 calls, v2 raises, hero?).” When a decision is close, especially in live poker, I tend to err towards letting my opponents act, as they often give away information via physical tells or bet sizing. In other words, if it’s close anyway, I like to to create opportunities to collect more information that might help me make a profitable decision. So I kind of wish I’d checked here planning to see what happens and decide.
Thanks for all the comments, and sorry that I don’t have a more definitive answer for you!
Being article orientated(results orientated) I really like my suggestion of 1500 to 2500 fold to a raise of V2.
If he’s not raising J8s on the end I don’t think he’s raising at all. Again as it was noted his most likely holdings are going to be 8x, 6x or busted draws. We’ve sort of pegged him for folding all of his 6x, draws so that only leaves 8x if he’s calling or raising on the end.
Figuring that we have V1 beat (which we were pretty sure about) we save our selves 1500 to 1000 chips when V2 does have 8x and we sometimes pickup an extra 1500 – 2500 when we get V1 to call with a weaker holding and V2 has a busted draw.
I wish I had more time to contribute but life is busy atm. Thanks again for your posts! I really enjoy them day in and day out even though I can’t comment on each of them.
I think I got the scenario names mixed up in my answer, but that isn’t too important since I said I would call for all of them!
You can spot a really common mistake I make in suggesting the V1 bet, V2 calls is an overcall from our end. First I assumed that V2 would have a raising range versus V1’s bet of all better, which is just a big assumption I think. But more importantly, I suggested it implausible for V2 to not fold an 8x on the turn with a bet and a call in front of him especially in combination of the fact that he didn’t bet an 8x on the flop. Can you spot the mistake? I’m projecting my own thought process onto villain’s behaviour. Just because I would bet an 8x often on the flop, just because I would fold an 8x without much hopes of improving on the turn, and just because I would raise an 8x on the river, doesn`t mean he will.
While perhaps V1 is not frustrated, he is also not skilled (presumably… always making presumptions this one). So in the scenario it goes V1 bet, V2 fold, for V1 to have better than us he has to have (no exceptions) slowplayed a monster on a very wet turn multi way. So bluffing with AJcc AKcc makes a lot of sense for him on the river, but betting JJ as a blocking bet (ie for no reason at all) is definitely going to be in his repertoire. So I think if you say V1 bets V2 folds is a fold you have to come up with a narrative for how he could have a range with better hands here (and I`m not creative enough to do so).
I’m not shocked to see a rec player check(& check/call) trips and/or a full house on the turn despite 2 clubs.QQ/88/66…of course unlikely holdings but so is V1 not betting flop with KQ and then value betting river is just as unlikely imo.
Yeah I agree Eric him checking flop with KQ and betting it on the river is probably something that never happens.
Interesting spot really if he bets and V2 folds. In game I am certain I would break my Ivey face and go with the `confused-durrr` not to be confused with blue steel of course.