This hand occurred about an hour and a half after last week’s WYP hand, against the same opponent. This time I’m the Hero and he’s the Villain. For those too lazy to look it up, here’s how I described him: “middle-aged recreational player, presumably aware that he sticks out like a sore thumb among all the disheveled twenty-something internet wizards.”
Blinds are 500/1000/100. I open to 2600 with Th 9h in early position. Villain calls in middle position, and everyone else folds.
Flop Jh 7d 5d. I bet 4000, he calls.
Turn Qh gives me open-ended straight flush draw. There’s 16,600 in the pot, Villain has 56K in his stack, and I have about 110K.
Please post your plan for the turn and a bit about how you’d proceed on both blank rivers and rivers that complete one of your draws. I’ll post results and my thoughts on Friday.
I believe the flop pot is 15,600? So 2600*2 + 4000*2 + 100*9 + 1500. Unless I’m missing something.
Anyways we shouldn’t have to bet large to fold the hands we want to fold with a turn barrel. Those hands are basically pairs worse than a jack. So TT-88, A7s, 76s, 66. I think this is a card that coordinates well with his flop calling range, non of his diamond draws are folding, some paired up, the others added a gutshot. No Jx is folding and neither is a set or an overpair etc. So anyways I think we only need to make a smaller bet at this point in relation to the pot, I would go with 7300 into 15600. This sets up a pot of 30200 with 48700 behind.
If he raises turn on us it really depends on his sizing. If he makes a min raise we should probably call and shove any heart, king, or 8 river, and c/f everything else. There are raise sizes that can generate a fold from us. Any hand that he raises we will have 6 straight outs and 7 flush outs, the 7h and the 5h being dirty. We might be able to c/c very small sizings on the 7h and 5h but we can’t count on anything from them. So with 13 outs and villain’s hole cards almost without a doubt not detracting from our outs we have a simple math problem. We will get there 13/44 = 29.55% of the time. So we need to be laid a price of a bit better than 2:1 direct odds when he raises. 2.4:1 to be precise. If he raises to 30,000 we will be getting 22,700 to win 30,000+15,600+7,300= 52,900 against this raise we will be getting 2.33:1. If he raises less we can call and donk shove our 13 outs and fold our other cards. If he raises around this size or more we can fold. I don’t think we should treat chips in his raise size between 14,600 and 30,000 as of increasing value given how much we have behind.
Cliffs: bet moderate to fold out his weak made hands, call versus certain raise sizes knowing he is pretty nutted when he raises turn.
Rivers,
if we spike, it matters how disguised our hand is and how much fold equity the card packs. If the river is a non diamond king, we should bet the most. He only has 1 combo that beats us on this card (ATdd). Our hand is very disguised. Furthermore, getting value from weak hands doesn’t matter much, JT will be hard pressed to call any reasonable bet. So we want to target those hands that coordinate with the board run out, KJ, QJ, KQdd, AKdd, AQdd. So I would bet 36,7000 on these three kings. We don’t want to put his tournament life in peril, but still get huge value. Hearts are fairly disguised as well. When they are low we can get paid by everything though, like JT. So I would probably still bet large, but not as large, like 26,600. Same goes for an offsuit 8. I think the Ah should also be a huge 36,700 bet for the same reasons as the kings. We should never check any of the cards that make our hand, we should assume from the previous hand that he won’t bluff the river if he misses, this player type isn’t going to make big adjustments or vary their play in spots like this. When we bet really big and he shoves, and we don’t have the nuts, I would think we have to fold. 2h or Kc even though we will be getting sick odds, it would be very surprising for him to shove with worse. The Kc/Ks is interesting. Might he shove with KQdd? KK? QQ? enough for us to be able to bet/call? His range to shove might be ATdd and T9dd so we probably have to bet/call given we will be getting better than 3:1 (the odds we need v that range).
Bluff outs. What is so great about this situation is that we can bet the cards that don’t make our hand as a bluff, and the cards that do make our hand won’t “complete a draw” in our villain’s mind. So the cards we want to scare him do, those that won’t necessarily scare him make our hand. For that reason I would probably fire any diamond. The thing with low diamonds is that this player is never going to be folding a hand like QK on any diamond. So we are really targeting Jx, stubborn TT, and then air that beats us like AK. So on diamond rivers I would bet/fold 18,900 or 21,900. I think an A is a similar bluff out, in that we can fold QTdd, KJ, JT, maybe KQ type hands. Obviously bet/folding all these cards.
Bricks. We’ve talked about a litany of rivers already, but some still remain. What should we do on the deuce of clubs? There might be merit in firing a very small bet to fold out some of his diamond draw air that beats us. I am not sure he has enough T9dd, ATdd, AKdd, A9dd, A8dd, for a 9500 bet to be profitable though, I would have to plug it into flopzilla but I assume he won’t have enough of this type of air to make that kind of bet good. So I would say probably give up on these brick cards being confident that we have so many river cards that put us in the driver’s seat, this just wasn’t one of them.
Cliffs: barrel turn, never check to call rivers, bet diamonds, hearts, kings, aces, and eights on the river, varying sizes. bet/call Kx, think about bet/folding most hearts since he will almost always have a higher backdoor flush (this is a v rare situation but worth mentioning). Final strategic thought for this hand: make sure you get there on the river.
This is the sort of board that I expect my CBet to get called fairly light on – two high cards, pocket 8s, etc – so when I pick up extra equity I think another barrel is my default. If he had TP, I expect him to call, but that’s not the end of the world – it just means i win a bigger pot when i hit and value bet him on the river.
The only concern is that he has 2p+ and sticks it in over the top of my turn barrel. If I bet 10k on the turn and he ships, it’ll be 46 to call into a total pot of 128.6k which is a bit worse than 2:1, which is going to be annoying since I’m going to have something like 14 outs, which isn’t quite enough to call. So I guess the thing to do is to choke back on the bet size a bit – say 9k, and fold to a jam.
After calling flop and turn, I think a relative unknown’s river range is on the wide side, consisting of things like diamond draws, pair plus diamonds, second pair or top pair or better. Therefore, we might want to bet.
But, I also reckon that our range is on the weak side, despite raising in early position pre-flop and betting flop and turn. We might think something along the lines of betting river with hands such as ours to balance the times we have AA, say. But, we (apparently) do not raise a narrow range from early position and therefore our turn range consists of a tonne of draws: diamonds, hearts, open-enders and perhaps some gutshots. So, we should not be taking the bet-bet-bet line with missed draws with an especially high frequency, given the limited number of strong hands in our range.
If we give villain enough credit to recognise this (the number of missed draws on the river suggests that he can call us down pretty light) we might give up if we miss and bet for value if we hit.
Against this particular villain, things might be a little different. He has suggested a tendency to play more high card hands pre- — suited and offsuit varieties — which increases the number of Jx in his range a lot.
I also think he may assign us a stronger range than we have because of our strong line, that we had previously shown down KK and because he may not be able to assign us a hand range well, as suggested by the previous WYP.
This could be too strong a set of assumptions. But, given this, we may want to bet on things like blank rivers even if we miss to try to fold out hands like Jx. Essentially, I am betting that he thinks we have a strong range given a river bet but may not be quite ready to fold Jx on the turn.
Going back to the turn, we bet to fold out the ‘middle’ of villain’s flop calling range (e.g., pocket 8’s). These hands fold to most bet sizes so we can bet smaller.
The cost of a smaller bet is that we might miss out on value if we hit and villain pays us off on the river. For example, a 15k bet and call puts 46.6k in the pot with 41k behind effective. This sets up stacks for a river shove that could be callable as some of the cards that help us certainly strengthen some of villain’s hands too (e.g., a K). But, villain has a wide range so we are not losing much, if any, EV here with the smaller bet size. Plus a smaller turn bet makes a given river bet (relative to the pot) cheaper when we are bluffing.
We may also worry about being raised off our big draw on the turn. If anything though, we are more likely to be able to bet-fold for smaller bet sizes than larger. And anyway, this consideration is not that big a deal either, as how often is villain raising? Villain has shown a proclivity to calling relatively wide pre-flop so his turn raising range is pretty small. Villain has also shown that he is on the passive side so may well not be raising draws, as indicated by his actions in last week’s WYP.
I would bet 13k on the turn and call if he shoves.
I probably have just enough equity to get it in (or it’s slightly –EV), but I think most of the value comes when he just calls with a range weighted towards AJ/KJ or when my opponent folds (hands like TT-88/87s).
When he doesn’t raise my turn bet I feel I can shove all blanks and get him to fold over half the time. I hit nearly a third of the deck on the river, and when I miss I will be able to bluff-shove profitably because if he’s straightforward he would have most likely raised with his strongest hands given my strong line, the wet board, and the SPR.
I have one of the worst hands in my distribution with Th9h if a blank hits the river (say a 2s), and I will have several combos of plausible bet-bet-betting hands (QQ/JJ/77/55/QJ/KK+) that will make it difficult for him to call me with the portion of his range I’m targeting.
For instance, I think KdQd is one of the best hands he could hold given his line, and that’s still a tough call if I shove the river because my range contains all those strong hands listed above.
If I hit, I might make a smaller exploitable bet to increase the chances of being called by those marginal hands in his river range.
Especially given the previous hand where we showed up with KK, our pre-flop range is going to look strong to villain, maybe AJ+, 99+. With the flop continuation bet he probably has our range as JJ+, AJ, and AK (with at least one diamond).
So given that view of us and the type of player he is, I would expect he is calling with either a made hand or draw, probably AJ, QQ, JJ, 77, 55 and all broadway combos w/2 diamonds (although he might raise some of these on the flop).
I don’t see him calling pre-flop with weaker holdings pre-flop given his view of you (and maybe not even 77 and 55). I also don’t see him as capable of floating the flop trying to get you off of QQ+ given your give-up on the previous hand.
So the good news is that our actual hand is disguised and we have a good draw, but villain’s range is strong. If we check my guess is he is betting. He’d bet his made hands, and he bet his draw last time, so wouldn’t he do it again? If we bet, does he raise? My guess is no, as he is not worried about us having a draw and he didn’t raise the turn.
My rough guess is that we are 25% to hit our hand (heart or non-diamond K or 9), so one option would be to make a bet that gave us the right pot odds if he calls, in this case 1/2 pot 8.3K bet, so that we don’t let him set the pot odds by checking to him. Another would be to bet @13K for a two reasons: a) we might get him to fold some of his draws
with the larger bet size; b) it sets up a pot size bet on the river to be the same size as his stack.
Third option would be to check to keep the same line as last hand and continue to rep our perceived range. I think we have the right implied odds to call most any bet he would make. And if he does check that is great odds-wise, and it probably means he has a draw. The problem with betting the turn is if I am wrong in either of my assumptions. Especially him making a large raise, as I would have to fold and don’t think that is a good result.
So my plan is to check the turn and call any pot size or lower bet he makes (fold to overbet).
If he bets the turn and I hit the river, I’ll shove. If he bets turn and I wiff I’ll c/f.
If he checks back the turn and the river is a d, then I c/f.
If he checks back the turn and I hit, then I’m a bit worried he is not going to call a river bet. However, I’m not really sure if a high card would make him more likely to call a river bet or bluff/value bet the river (e.g. w/2 pair), so since I’m uncertain I think I have to bet probably 1/2 pot.
If he checks back the turn and the river is a low blank, I think I can bluff the river, since he’ll put me on an over-pair, and I’ll make a 2/3 pot bet. If it’s a high blank, then I’ll c/f, as I think there’s a chance he could have two-pair or a straight.
The more I thought about this hand, the more difficult it seemed. I’m not that confident in my analysis.
I like to bet the turn, about 10K. We just checked with KK before, so we may consider checking again to disguise our draw. However, while he may be consious of that hand right now, we don’t know how much stock he is putting into that at this point, and even if he is thinking of it there are a few counter points – a big raise is going to be a high % of his stack and I’m not sure that this player is going to risk his tournament on a bluff, and although he may consider us on a bluff or draw, he may also consider us on a very strong hand like QQQ or JJJ here. I think his range given that he just called pre and on the flop is pretty wide, and contains enough weak to moderate hands in it that continuing the aggression on the turn is the best line. The downside is that if he raises/shoves we have to fold (if does something silly like min or close to min raise we can call and spike). If he calls 10K on the turn I’m betting big if we hit and about 22K on a diamond or and Ace. So cliffs: I like to keep the aggression up and hopefully take it down on the turn, and V-bet, bluff, or check-fold the river depending on what comes.
I tend to think you can play this hand two ways and I don’t really know which is better.
A check-call turn which pretty much guarantees you can see the river.
Assuming I made a straight or flush I would check raise any card but a diamond which I would probably check-fold.
B I think you could bet turn 12000 which folds out his weakest straight and/or flush draws.
Of course if you bet 12000 and he shoves you have to fold imo.
On the river I would bet 25k on any card but a J (this puts huge pressure on his one pair hands which he will have a lot of the time) and obviously only call a shove if you made a hand.
2 approaches to this:
Do we think we can get paid off on the river if we check the turn and then bet out on the river that hits us(limits our ability to get called and how much we can bet/get called)? I think this also limits our bluffing ability on the river but will probably cause us to lose less chips if villain has a monster and will call the river no matter what.
The other possibility, I think my most likely action is to get us in position for a river shove, which would be to bet somewhere around 13K. I think this allows us to call a raise-shove on the turn with our draws(I don’t think he shoves on the turn with diamonds unless he’s got AdJd or AdQd or maybe AdKd) so we’ll probably have 15 outs, around 33%. I also think betting somewhat large on the turn gives us a better possibility that villain calls when a river that completes us hits as it might show that we were trying to keep out the draws ourself with the bigger bet. If we miss there are still many scare cards that can hit in our favor, I probably try to bet the river something like 28K, still looks a little value-ish and possibly stronger than a shove so he might be able to fold a bunch. Where if he calls 28, he probably calls the shove anyway.
Crap, I feel like my logic is flawed somewhere since everyone says we can’t call a turn raise-shove and that’s precisely why I bet 13K so that I can call a turn shove…
The reason you can’t call a turn shove is that even though most of your outs are going to be clean you don’t have the right equity to call off vs his shoving range. I don’t have stove at the moment but I think at best your a 33/67 vs his range of:
2p+, sets, TPTK flush draws
If you bet 13k and he shoves you’re looking at 13+16+56 = 75k pot. You have to call 40k so your getting a little more then 2 to 1 on your money.
Hello,
Due to a lack of time this week, this is a quick response :
In a way to balance your play and when I see the stack to pot ratio, I think hero has to play his big draws like KK on the prvious WYP. On this flop I don’t really think that villain is drawing, I think he has a “made hand” like top pair. Villain knows that you can play KK like this so he will be very cautious with his top pair.
I don’t like the effective stack size because hero can’t shove, hero can bet but if villain raises he will shove and hero hasn’t enaough good odds to call. So I think that the plan here is to play this hand like KK ie check/call on the turn, and to check the river. Hero knows that villain don’t bluff on the river, so he can check/fold on a blank river and check/raise with a river that completes one of his draws.
Man life’s been so busy. 🙁
I think we want to bet something on the turn. Like 6.5k. If villain raises a reasonable amount I’d call and then check/fold river unimproved.
If we do improve on the River I’d move all in since villains most likely holding after a turn raise is going to 2p+ and I don’t think he’d get away from it.
I think I’d check/soul read a Diamond river that gave me a straight. But since he seems risk adverse if he bet anything I’d think I’d fold.