Some of you may remember this e-mail that I received last year seeking staking advice:
I am 24 years old and I live in Henderson, NV. Following the shut down of service to US players on Pokerstars I decided to play a few live tournaments. I instantly final tabled two Bellagio WPT $540′s back to back. During one of those deep runs I was offered, by another player in the tournament, to join his team of players that are backed. I had made out plans and set out a schedule of tournaments over the course of the summer only to find out that the backer of their team just went on $400k downswing and they are not adding any new players.Now I am stuck in a bad spot, I am scrambling to find any sort of staking/coaching deal for the summer and I do not know anyone in the poker world…. Any help you could offer, even if just some words of advice, would be greatly appreciated.
My suggestion to this player was for him to focus on the games he could afford on his own bankroll rather than entering into a staking relationship that would have constrained his options. After hearing that he final tabled the first Venetian event and had a few other good cashes as well, I concluded that, “it looks like he’s going to be alright.”
How right I was. He recently got back to me with a pretty extraordinary success story:
I’m not sure if you remember me, but… I had originally emailed you asking for staking/coaching or just any advice that you could give me. I wound up having a very solid series without needing any kind of backing. After the series I moved up to Canada to maintain Supernova Elite status on Pokerstars….
I recently came home to Chicago to play live tournaments, for the first time since the series, at the Chicago Poker Classic. I won ‘Player of the Turbo Series’ (winning a car that I took $30k cash option for) and ‘Overall Player of the Series’ (for $50k in cash).
The combination of skills that I have obtained from grinding online, and my many years of dealing poker and playing live have made for a great mixture of skills that make me a beast in live tournaments. I’m absolutely giddy about the WSOP being just around the corner, and I want to take my game to the next level and maximize my chances of success and making a run at a bracelet.
I’ve been watching your training vids since I was a broke noob, and reading your articles and blogs as well. I really like the way that you go into such depth explaining even just a single hand of poker…. Again I ask for just any bit of advice you’d have for someone in my situation. Last year when I asked the same thing I was a good player playing with a limited bankroll. This year I am fresh off of 10 months of very hard work online, with a nice bankroll, and my confidence has me believing that I can win every tournament that I play.
I’ve already written back to him, but I want to post a bit of advice here. Obviously this player has had a ton of success recently, more than could be attributed to luck alone. In other words, he’s clearly a talented tournament player.
It’s important, however, not to get overconfident. He’s surely had more than his share of luck as well. There’s always room for improvement no matter how good you are, and even the best must work hard to stay on top of the game.
It seems like this player is taking the right message from his recent success: he has skill and talent that is well worth investing in. He’s taking the right approach by being inspired to play more and study harder rather than resting on his laurels.
As a blogger, I love hearing from people who have found my writing or my advice helpful. Hell, just knowing people read at all is nice. If you’re a reader, I’d love to hear your story: how you got into poker, how you’re improving, what you like most about the blog, constructive criticism, and by all means your proudest poker accomplishments!
You can leave comments here or contact me directly. Please let me know if you don’t want me to share your story, because I’m looking for a few more good ones like this to post.
Andrew, I’ve mostly lurked but I really enjoy your blogs for some time. I really admire your positivity and down-to-earth manner. I was really happy to see you named PS online pro but of course the timing couldn’t have been worse.
At any rate, while I have never been successful enough to make any serious money playing, I have been lucky enough to find myself GM of a modest poker room here in Portland. After nearly ten years of enjoyment and fun from poker, I’ve finally found a way to make a living off of it. Maybe when I’m not working so much I’ll be able to focus more on growing again as a player, or at least playing more and relaxing. As it is, I’m enjoying putting my experience as a player and dealer to use in my room.
Your blog is a great insight into the life and thought of a real professional player, and with your solid writing it lets me imagine what it would be like to have accomplished that dream. Also your analysis and thought-process makes me realize how much I could use a coach, and how powerful a tool that could be. So thanks for the blog, and also thanks for asking about us!
Thanks, Sean! I didn’t realize you were GM of a poker room. Very interesting, I may follow up with you about that at some point…
Hi Andrew,
I don’t post often here, but I am reading your blog and most of its content since about a year. I like it a lot, as you clearly explain your thinking and you can go in depth, talking about one hand of Poker. You seem to me like a open minded person and I have the impression that you put things in perspective pretty well. Also, you interact with your readears and the poker community very well (mailbags). I also like a look your stories on the WSOP or any other tournament you made. I have the impression I am getting the feeling of the moment.
As for how I got into poker, I completed an MBA 3 years ago. For 5 years, I studied while working full time. At the end, decided to go to Vegas to celebrate. This is where I played “real” poker for the 1st time. I met around the same time somebody that told me, he was making money from online Poker. He pointed me out the 2 “Harrington on cash game” books. At the same time, I had more free time and was looking at a new hobby. I deposited 20$ on Stars and started grinding 2NL FR. Going trough books, videos, softwares and coaching I reached 200NL FR. My main game today is 100NL Zoom FR and I am looking to move back up to 200 soon. I always keep on open mind, and I am always looking at different ways to improve my game.
Hope to read more interesting stuff from you Andrew!
Thanks for your kind words, and for sharing your story!
Full Tilt Poker bankrupted me. I’m not in the U.S. but I had too much money tied up because I was grinding Rush PLO8.
To get back online I went to forums and luckily got someone who took a chance with me. I played on a stake for three months, then I paid off the backer’s share and continued on my own and made Supernova (lowest level of) in December. Now my bankroll is healthier than it was before the crash of Full Tilt.
Of course luck was a big part of my success. I won a milestone hand and got to a WCOOP final table while on the stake. Getting the opportunity to be lucky isn’t just luck. If you want to hear more about my personal situation, feel free to shoot a message at me.
That’s great to hear, guma. Sorry to hear about your funds stuck on FTP, but really good to hear that you bounced back from it so effectively.
A question for Mailbag.
Suppose I am working on constructing an UTG opening range. I decide to have a total of X combos and keep including hands until I am down to my last 12 combos and I have to make a choice between two groups (a) 53s, 64s, 75s – 12 combos and (b) AJo – also 12 combos. I can’t make up my mind so I decide to play a few hands of each.
I open UTG and the button calls. I know button well as a disciplined, predictable player and somewhat of a GTO tragic. Because of his disciplined approach to folding weak top pair button feels able to call in this spot with any suited ace plus AJo, AQo. He will always 3-bet pre-flop with AK but never with AQ. He will also call with a wide range of other hands 22+ etc (blinds are not squeeze happy).
The flop comes A92 giving me a gs plus bdfd (say 22% against top pair) if I have 53s and top pair good kicker if I have AJo. I intend to triple barrel both hands. If I get raised on the flop I will fold 53s and call with AJo but check fold the turn. If I get raised on any other street I will fold both hands – unless I improve.
I know button will do the following. With A9, A2, 22, 99 he will mainly wait until the river to raise. He knows I will bet 60% of pot on each street with a wide range. Being a GTO tragic he folds exactly 37.5% of his range on each street. He will call the flop with random floats, monsters and any ace, he will fold A3,A4,A5,A6 on turn, fold A7, A8, AT on river. On the river he will call with AJ, AQ, and raise with a combination of monsters and busted draw bluffs. If I check any street he will bet with AQ, AJ plus a mixture of monster and bluffs and check behind with weaker aces. So I gain nothing by checking AJ and with 53s I need to either check-fold the flop or triple barrel.
I know that if button folds 37.5% or more on each street I only need to be good on the river about 25% for me to be ahead on the hand.
The problem is that with AJo I am never good when called on the river and have to fold to a river bluff. With 53s I am good almost 25%, plus I can sometimes call the river raise and will likely be ahead of his monsters when I call.
Maybe this is a good argument to not play either of 53s or AJo. Then I have to be a nit and play 88+,AK. I think a nit is just as exploitable.
What do you think Andrew ?
I posted an addendum to this mailbag question but somehow I managed to put it under Mailbag: suited connectors.
Mailbag question addendum2 to 53s versus AJo.
Some people might respond that we can play fit or fold with AJo and therefore it is the better hand.
Just as it is not profitable to call raises and play fit-or-fold, there are practically no hands that we can open and profitably play fit-or-fold and this applies to hands as strong as AKs but even more so to 53s and AJo which we might need to fold pre-flop.
Suppose we open UTG with a raise to 3.5. If each player 3-bets 3.2% then we will need to fold pre-flop 15% for an immediate loss of 0.525 (= 0.15×3.5). The good news is that at a reasonably tight table each player will likely call no more than 12% so we win the blinds uncontested about 45% of the time (seems a lot but thats what 15% call or 3-bet adds up to) for a return of 2.25 (= 0.45×5) but 0.525 of our money never sees a flop therefore we need to make 1.775 (= 3.5 – 2.25 + 0.525) on our flop and beyond play in order to break even.
With AK we will hit one pair or better only 32.4%. If we bet when we hit and our button opponent folds (why wouldn’t he when he knows we play fit or fold) and check fold otherwise (why wouldn’t he bet when we check) for a return of 2.754 for a profit on the hand of 0.979. But this assumes our top pair is always good. Under this scenario our button opponent can call with say any small pair. If we check then his pair is good, if we bet he folds unless he has a set, in which case he wins another nice pot. So under this scenario even AK is unlikely to be profitable and AQ or worse is highly questionable.
Sorry about all the arithmetic – but I am trying to sort my ideas out and having to explain to a critical audience helps me. I hope I don’t appear as an irrelevant nerd.
Got into poker like a lot of people, thanks to ESPN’s broadcasting… played $5 tournaments with friends and eventually we started playing .25/.50 cash games after tournaments, so that people who busted out didn’t have to wait… around that time, tried full tilt, deposited $600 to get the max bonus match… started at .25/.50 since that’s what i play live haha! over 2 years, eventually jumped up to .5/1 and then 1/2 multi tabling and even dabbled with 2/4… online bankroll reached small/medium 5 figures… that’s probably my proudest poker accomplishment, just to be a winning poker player is a good achievement but turning $600 into 5 figures i would think is pretty rare among non professionals?
haven’t played since BF but occasionally go to the casino with mixed results… this is probably a topic you have addressed in the past, transitioning to live play… i feel i can’t play as tight as i would like to because people notice you are super tight a lot more live… and i’m used to 6 max but full ring, i have trouble isolating… not to mention the boredom factor playing as tight as i did online…
what i like about this blog, how you treat everyone’s thoughts with respect, and in general, seem pretty darn humble for someone who has attained a lot of success in his field… that actually matters a lot, the writer’s attitude? you pretty much respond to the majority of comments, and obviously love the analysis of different situations…
i’m not improving that much, i only play maybe twice a month… but one way is experimenting with different bets and lines… for example, i’ve been thinking about over betting because i do have opponents that can make very good calls with tp bad kicker… they call pot sized bets without hesitation and i’m trying to think of ways to punish that…
maybe a future mailbag question could be about combos of hands… i feel like the poker books i’ve read never really got in depth with hand combos/blockers/etc but then i see you advanced poker players talk about it so easily, would love to learn the basics… thanks for this blog, keep up the great job!
Nice story, hans, thanks for your post. Glad you mentioned treating comments with respect – that is certainly something I strive for, even if I must occasionally beat back the snark demon who sits on my shoulder!
People can be divided into three groups: Those who make things happen, those who watch things happen, and those who wonder what happened. To avoid being one of those in that third group, or even the second grooup for that matter, you need to take action. Here is an interesting way to go about taking advantage of some rarely talked about niches, that could really bring you some riches! I’m just in a rhyming mood today I guess. Anyway, check it out if you want to… http://tinyurl.com/7amup3x