This week’s question is in response to the recent “What’s Your Play? Street-by-Street at the WSOP Main Event” feature. In the river results post, I compared calling with a low full house on the river versus shoving with it. Because it was the WSOP Main Event, I argued, “I’d want to be ahead something like 60% of the time before I shoved the last of my money in.”
Q: Is raising a non-shove amount worth considering? The ‘busting main event’ factor is probably fairly big here, I could see a few hands calling it off with a straight that might do a fold vs a jam.
A: Very good question. The literal answer to your question is yes, it’s absolutely worth considering. In fact, in the same post, I also said that, “You should consider all of your options at the poker table, even those that seem obviously wrong, because every once in a while the unconventional play is the best one.” So yes, given my point about playing extra cautiously with the rest of my stack, it certainly would have been worth considering a raise of less than all-in.
That said, I still think calling is best. A small raise would make sense only in a world where Hero expects to be ahead more than 50% of the time but not so often that he wants to invest the last of his money on a thin raise (60% is the threshold I pulled out of thin air for that). Many commenters made good arguments for why Villain’s range is probably polarized between bluffs and hands better than ours, which would suggest that although we’re ahead of his betting range, we wouldn’t be ahead at all if his hand is good enough to call a raise.
I also think that even when it isn’t my bottom dollar, any raise would put some of my last 30 BBs into the pot. While I wouldn’t need to be as cautious as I would with the very last of my chips, I still wouldn’t want to invest those on a 51/49 shot. So I think there’s still a survival consideration, even with a small raise.
Finally, remember that a small raise does open you up to a shove. In this case I’d be very comfortable folding if Villain 3-bet all-in on the river, despite the pot odds, but any non-zero chance of a bluff (or a shove from a worse hand Villain thinks he’s value betting) decreases the profitability of this play. Still, it’s good that you thought to considerate it, and bad that I didn’t.
Do you have a question for the Thinking Poker Mailbag? Please leave it as a comment below!
My guess is most people (including me) don’t play 89suited (67,910,10J) the right way…
20BB 89 suited on button vs 3x raise?
40BB 89suited on button vs 3x raise?
100BB 89 suited on button vs 3x raise?
200BB 89 suited on button vs 3x raise?
What about 89s on the button vs raise/call before you act?
What about 89suited in BB?
Do we have to raise 89suited to play it?
What about 89 suited with 20BB on the button when it is folded to you? When it is limped to you?
So obviously I could have just asked what is the proper way to play 89 suited?
Mailbag question:
I was playing a live $2/$5 cash game.
On the turn, pot is $140, 4 players, board is A234 with two hearts (2 just hit on turn, forget which two cards were hearts on the flop). I check in the small blind with 22 (holding one heart), all 3 players go all-in, and action is back to me. They all have me covered and I have $200 left. So I have to call $200 into a $740 pot (21.3% pot equity). I have 10 outs, so 10/46 or 21.7%, to improve, so I’m getting the right odds to call on the surface. However, someone could have a better set, seriously reducing my odd of improving.
So my question is, how do I figure out the odds in a situation like this when I don’t know exactly what I’m up against?
This was a limped pot pre-flop, then a $30 flop bet was called in 3 spots (I was last to call). I’m most likely facing made straights and nut flush draws, but could also be up against other sets, non-nut flush draws, and 2 pair hands.
I folded, figuring the odds of me being up against a better set was too high to call. I showed everyone my hand as I folded and most of the table said I was wrong to fold (but one player said I was right).
River was the heart 7 and two players chopped with the straight, both having 57 suited. 3rd villain left right away and didn’t show.
2nd question, if you are unsure in a spot like this, is it better to fold or call?