We slowplayed the flop, we raised an arguably scary turn card, and now it’s time to talk about what to do on the river in this third and final installment of “What’s Your Play? Street-by-Street at the WSOP Main Event”.
It’s early on Day 5 of the WSOP main event. We’re in the shallow money, with 574 players remaining out of 7319, and Hero’s table draw is a great one for such a late day in the tournament, featuring several pretty weak amateurs. Hero (me, in my late twenties with dark sunglasses and no logos on my clothing) begins the hand with a slightly below average stack of 500K. Blinds are at 4K/8K/1K.
One of the weak players, a guy about my age sitting on a stack of about 450K, raises to 20K in first position. I call with 2c 2h in middle position, and a middle-aged player new to the table and sitting on 600K calls in the big blind. The three of us see a 7s 4s 2d flop, and both of my opponents check relatively quickly. I check behind.
The turn is the 3s. BB checks, and UTG bets 25K into the 72K pot. I raise to 90K, the BB folds, and UTG calls. I realize it’s potentially important information, but I’m afraid I don’t remember how quickly he called or in what manner. The river is the 3d. UTG bets 100K into the 250K pot, leaving about 250K behind. Hero has him slightly covered. What’s your play and why?
Post your thoughts in the comments section below. I’ll be back with my thoughts on Friday (or thereabouts – I may not be able to maintain quite so rigid a posting schedule while in Europe).
I think I’m inclined to flat. The ONLY value hands that make any sense here are higher full houses with him holding 77 or 44, or the unlikely quads with 33. It would be a very strange way to play an overpair, he is very unlikely to have 3x, and flushes are also unlikely as he is often going to cont bet the flush draw on the flop and failing that he is likely to get more money in on the turn once he makes the flush. Anyway, even if does have some strangley played overpair or something I doubt he would call the shove – so I flat.
Ship/fist pump in some order.
His straights and flushes are still value hands in his mind. You are more likely to have a 3 than he is given pre, and he could call a shove with something that beats trips. He could also think maybe the river counterfeited Hero. UTG might not play a flush draw/flush as fast earlier if it is the nut flush, hoping someone with lesser spades catches up a bit. If he has outleveled us in underrepping six combos of hands versus all kinds of draws, then good on him.
I am surprised villian leads with a 3d on the river with the prior action. Feels like a full house.
If he is bluffing (very unlikely) a raise has no value he won’t call.
If he has a straight (very unlikely) a raise has no value he won’t call.
If he has two pair (very unlikely) a raise has no value he won’t call.
If he has a non-nut flush (suited connectors)a raise has little value he probably won’t call.
If he has nut flush (unlikely he would of c-bet flop or raised on turn) a raise may get called.
If he has full house or quads or straight flush a raise has no value he winning.
The pot is laying 350K to 100K. If he has 77, 44, 33, AsKs, KsQs, QsJs, JsTs, Ts9s, 9s8s, 6s5s we have 42% equity. He probably has more losers in his range. I think a call is best.
Why would he put us on a 3? That makes little sense to me. Why would he value bet a straight on that river… and if A5 or 56 are in his opening range doesn’t he usually semi-bluff the flop? Although he might value bet a flush in that spot, he doesn’t likely have the flush for the reasons previously stated. The hand that best fits the action is a full house or some kind of odd bluff, it doesn’t matter how many combos of draws are out there which made flushes or straights if he is not likely to have them.
A3 (presumably suited) and 53 (presumably suited) are squarely in our range and could easily get played by Hero this way, plus 42, so villain could easily be betting a flush for value in a way that would call a jam most of the time. I think people (especially “weak” ones) fail to c-bet flush draws as much as they slow-play top set 60BB deep with both draws on board. I agree that a straight seems to be a stretch.
This seems like a spot where not a whole lot makes perfect sense so everyone is monster-under-the-bed-ing it. Frankly the only hand that makes perfect sense for villain is the straight flush.
So I admit I forgot to include the times when Villain bluffs or block bets the river when deciding what to do on the turn. I don’t think we can ignore our turn read here. He has a missed flush (with AS) trying to bluff you off a missed flush or he has an over pair betting to stop you from raising more if checked to. He can also have a flush. And yes sometimes he can have a higher full-house or straight but both super rare.
We are so super under-repped here it is time to let (a weak)Villain make a big mistake.
I think it is clear shove and pray Villain has an over pair and thinks you are bluffing a missed flush or less likely has a flush and can’t fold. The like less then 1% of times Villain has a higher full house,3333,or 56ss, just say “Nice play”.
I just think it is much more likely Villain makes a mistake with an over-pair or a flush then he shows up with 777, 56ss, or 3333 that it is a clear shove.
P.s. I would have loved to see a non-spade, non full-house river as I think that would be a much more difficult spot. That would happen like 65% of the time.
So after posting I have tried to convince myself all week he can’t have 77733. I just can’t lol. Check to check-raise, bet small for info, call turn raise to fill up, make full house, lead small for at least some value and hope Hero check raises river. Seems like in the long run Villain makes more mistakes then has 77733 but I guess its not worth Tourney Life.
This is an incredibly weird hand. I haven’t posted so far on either of the previous editions but I really love the choice of hand.
I think it’s safe to say at this point, that there is absolutely no way that anyone in their right mind could fold a full house here. As a result, we need to ask exactly one question:
What range of hands could we expect villain to call a shove with?
1) This is day 5 of the Main Event and if there is ever a time when people are going to make big folds, this is it. A shove here represents massive strength and I without specific reads I very strongly doubt that an unknown/weak player is going to level himself into believing you are bluffing or anything of the kind.
2)Villain has played this hand in a truly puzzling manner. He raised pre-flop. Checked the flop, lead out very weak and called a big raise on the turn. Leading out on the river is a very strange action. He might do this because
a) he is bluffing with a missed draw (though I think its unlikely), but in that case raising serves no purpose.
b) with 56ss and all his full house/quad hands. Raising here would be a disaster. It’s also perfectly conceivable that he has played a set this way. If he decided to slow play a set on a very dry board, his actions fit the hand perfectly.
c) He has a made flush. The river bet makes sense with a made flush, but the rest of the hand makes it very unlikely that he actually has a flush. Additionally when you shove the river, he may even fold some of his weaker flushes in the face of your extreme strength.
d) He has a straight- this river bet doesn’t make much sense with the straight since he can’t expect calls from too many worse hands, especially when you are representing a flush. I think straights are very unlikely for him to have, and he is very likely to fold them to a shove anyway.
In summary, I am finding it very difficult to see what worse hands are going to call a shove here and I can easily envision a lot of disastrous scenarios ending my deep run in the WSOP. It’s not like there aren’t a lot of random spazzouts/bluffs in his range, but I just don’t see him donating his entire stack this deep in the WSOP. Maybe I am giving a weak player too much credit and being too LOL nitty, but, I call.
Shove? Set over set (or now, boat over boat) is so rare–I read that for a professional live cash game player it might happen once a year. That nut flush is going to be a very hard laydown, and these are weak amateurs. If we lose, it’s a cooler.
Maybe I’m just too much of a cash game player, but just calling (or even allowing the thought of folding to cross our mind) seems really nitty to me in this spot.
I have been set over setted at least 15 times this year (though I am a very high volume player. In any case, its nowhere near as rare as you think. Also, you have to ask yourself, isn’t the way this hand played out very very strange…even if you are ahead a lot, he doesn’t have the nut flush a lot and he just can’t call very often here unless you are dead.
I did mention that once a year thing applied to *live* cash game pros. 🙂 You’re probably playing a lot more than 15x as many hands as one.
Also, maybe I’m giving too much weight to the statement that Hero is playing against “several pretty weak amateurs”. To me, weak amateurs will say “I haz flush, I call”. Maybe I’m not giving them enough credit.
I believe that on one of the previous instalments Andrew clarified that weak just mean not very good, rather than a completely idiotic player with no thought process. Also, even (maybe especially) if you think the player is that weak, he would probably have raised his flush on the turn.
As for set over set, its April!! And two of the instances HAVE been live….please believe me when I tell you- there is really nothing that extraordinary about set over set. Also this is not the right way to think of a hand, on a board of 9h 8h 7h 4h, if you raise somebody and he shoves for 1000 BB on top, and you have the Ace of hearts, you shouldn’t be thinking “It is extraordinarily rare for an Ace high flush to be beaten by straight flush”. You need to view that probability in the context of how the hand has played out.
Ah, but you significantly change the scenario when you say he shoves for 1000 BB. That is a super deep-stack scenario, where the SPR is so high, I could actually see how one could be prepared to lay down the nut flush on an unpaired board.
This scenario, the stacks are effectively 50 BB deep. That plays way differently than 1000 BB deep.
True. I wasn’t trying to compare the situations at all. Merely trying to illustrate rather than just looking at the probability of a cooler alone, one needs to look at the probability of a cooler GIVEN that a lot of very unusual things have already happened.
I think Prabhat has kind of nailed it in terms of the approach. We’re not folding, so if we’re pushing then what are we hoping to get called by? Try as I might I can’t find enough losing hands in his range that will call – at this stage, even the nut flush could find a fold, and I certainly think all straights and overpairs will.
Moreover, I think this guy could *easily* have flopped a higher set He would have checked the flop for similar reasons to us, may well have made a small turn bet to induce (or even “see where he’s at” after a scary card, especially as he’s a weak player), but then can’t fold to your raise – but neither does he want to push when he could now be losing to a flush or straight. When the river houses him up he has to then bet.
He’s less likely to have a higher full house than he is to have a whole bunch of other hands that we beat, but I think the full houses form the far larger part of his calling range when we push.
In a nutshell, I just call.
Our read on the previous street was that he most likely has a Ax hand with one spade. If that is still true, then the river didn’t help him and he’s turning his hand into a bluff. Therefore, an all-in bet wouldn’t likely to be called and our best bet would be a min-raise to 200K and see if he’ll turn his hand into a bluff-catcher. But given that he’s now betting, can we re-evaluate his range and put him on AsXs, A5, or a strangely played AA or KK that is now betting for value? If that is now a sizeable portion of his river betting range than I think we can raise all-in.
I’m not really sure what is more likely. On the surface you would think that a straight forward player weak wouldn’t bluff here, but maybe he sees all those chips out there and this his attempt to steal the pot if he thinks we are also on a busted draw. He could have seen our raise as semi-bluff.
I’m leaning towards the min-raise. Maybe accompany it with some sort of act like you’re trying to re-bluff him 🙂
Call and I don’t think it is remotely close.
As everyone agree hero is between calling and raising… To raise, all-in obviously,Hero must believe that villain has a made hand, less than FH, to call… But till now Hero thought that villain has something like AsX so he can’t call a raise. If villain had Flush he probably reraised at turn. A str8, an unlikely 56 or A5s, can’t call also a raise. A slowplayed hand that rivered a FH look more likely than str8 or flush… Finally i don’t think villain can put his tourney life in risk calling with A-high, if he bluffs, believing that Hero rebluffing him…
So i prefer just call and Hero show his hand which has two more benefits: First that is capable to check with big hand, and second that if any villain slowplay is readable by hero…
Good post, but for FWIW I wouldn’t consider having to show my hand to be a benefit. I’m a lot more concerned about showing strength in my betting range than my checking range.
Thanks for your answer Andrew.. I agree with you.. I count it as side benefits in case Hero show his hand.
If you find time tell me your opinion about my post in turn results article…
P.S. Visiting Europe without Greece is like a half trip.. Next time schedule to visit Greek islands…
Shove.
If we were playing a tricky, trappy, dangerous, thinking player, a call-only line on the river might make sense. We don’t expect this “weak” player to be the Tiger Woods of hand reading. If there is a chance he will call, with anything — overpaid, flush, straight, etc. — we should give him that chance. Flatting is too conservative.