Edit: I’m such a spazz! Sorry I had JJ. Don’t know why I can never get the details right on these on the first try.
It’s the last hand before dinner break on Day 1 of the $5K main event of the Venetian Deep Stack Extravaganza. Here’s our cast of characters:
Russian (UTG, 9K) – Mid-20s Russian who has been very active and aggressive. He’s a smart player who knows how to use his image well. Probably knows who Cliff Josephy is but probably does not know anything about me beyond what he’s seen today.
Hero (MP1, 45K) – Me. Late 20s wearing hat and sunglasses. I’ve been extremely tight the last few levels but did show down A7o after 3-betting the CO from my BTN. In that hand I bet-called an As 8s 8d flop, then called bets on a Qs turn and 5s river to win the pot with my 7s. I was also a lot more active early in Level 1 when the table was still short-handed, so most likely I’m viewed as tight but capable of mixing it up.
Cliff Josephy (MP2, 75K) – Well-known live player who’s even better known online as JohnnyBax. He’s a smart guy who’s capable of a lot but sometimes gets a little too tricky for his own good. He generally seems to be more concerned about keeping tabs on his horses than paying attention or taking advantage of every opportunity at the table. He’s almost always on his phone as soon as he folds, and he sometimes leaves the table for several hands at a time to go talk to someone. He recognizes me but I don’t know how much he knows about me other than that I’ve been a successful MTT player for 5+ years.
Edit: Cliff corrected me that he never actually missed a hand. He frequently left the table but always dashed back to play his hand.
Blinds are 150/300/25. The Russian raises to 700, which is standard for him. I make it 1700. Cliff thinks for a bit before calling 1700. Action folds back to the Russian who calls 1000 more.
Flop is Ts 9c 6d. There’s 5475 in the pot. The Russian checks, so action is on Hero. What’s your plan and why? In addition to whether you bet or check, give us a general idea of how you’ll proceed in the following scenarios:
1. If you bet, what’s your plan if…
a) Cliff folds, Russian shoves.
b) Cliff calls, Russian shoves.
c) Cliff calls, Russian folds, turn is the 2c.
d) Cliff calls, Russian folds, turn is the Th.
e) Cliff calls, Russian folds, turn is the Kd.
2. If you check, what’s your plan if…
a) Cliff bets, Russian shoves.
b) Cliff bets, Russian folds.
c) Cliff checks, Russian shoves Kd turn.
d) Cliff checks, Russian shoves 2c turn.
e) Cliff checks, Russian checks Ad turn.
Post your thoughts and comments here. I’ll respond to comments as best I can throughout the week and post my own thoughts as well as the results on Friday.
wait, do we know your hand?
Wondering the same thing. Was this info left out inadvertently? What over pair does hero have??
Unless I missed it, knowing what your hand is might be helpful. Although it is an overpair, so that does narrow it down :).
Edit: I’m guessing QQ, given the nature of the follow-up questions. Am I right?
(Assuming we have QQ), if I’m betting the flop, I’m probably not folding if the Russian shoves. You can probably bet like 2800, and if Cliff calls and the Russian shoves, you can either 3bet to iso out Cliff’s dead money, even just to click it back to get it heads up between you and the Russian, who I’m guessing will stick in the rest of his chips with whatever pair/draw he’s decided he’s going with. If he’s got a shortstack, I’m kind of inclined to think he’d stack pre w 99/TT, so I don’t think it’s particularly likely he’s got either of those.
If Cliff calls, I think I would bet the Tx, but not the Kx, because hero can still rep bluffs on the Tx if he expects you to slow down w an overpair, but Kx pretty much means most of your perceived 3betting range has something, thus making it less likely he calls w lower PP/9x. We can check and perhaps call/fold depending on sizing/feel.
I stand by these comments now that I know it’s JJ.
I read AB for KK here.
I guessed QQ because I didn’t think turning top set would be as much of a question.
Another bad read by me. Won’t be the last time. I put him on KK because I assume if he had the aces there was a strong chance that the OP would have made a reference (if veiled) to the fact that he had the aces. Like if it was JJ-KK OP probably would always read this way, but if it was AA it would have some AA slang like 35% of the time. Then given the positions from which the villain opened and hero 3bet I figured between JJ, QQ, and KK, KK is the least likely to be discounted, even if JJ is discounted say 5% and QQ 2%, because of an unwillingness to stack off versus an UTG 30bb range or what not.
I further put him on KK over QQ because everyone else in the comments wrote QQ so there is higher “being right” equity in being the only person saying KK.
Another read blowing up in my face…
I bet flop and in both cases where the Russian shoves I just call.
In all cases where the CJ calls and Russian folds I think you have a tough turn spot, and I probably start by checking.
I think the pot is 5775? and you c-bet at least 3000-ish in this spot as it will force the Russian to commit to the pot with only 7300 behind. No free cards when we are reasonable ahead here. I dont think AA, KK or QQ is out there, but 10-9, 7-8 or 1010/99 could be. We want AK/AQ to put chips in or any pair-strt draw combo (J10/QJ/98). You could bet a smaller amount but all we do there is create a bloated pot. If CJ only calls your c-bet, you could be in a tough spot if the Russian shoves since if you only call the shove then CJ is priced into almost anything and the pot is really bloated or could shove and we cant call.
If you only get called by both then watch out as almost any card in the deck can potentially improve either’s holdings … If only CJ calls, then I probably check almost any Turn card for pot control and see what he does. The 10 or K are good steal cards for CJ regardless of his holdings as AK, J10, 910 are in his range.
If the Flop checks through, then we continue to check the K or 10, but bet the 2 3000-ish with the same intent as above for the Flop.
We fold a CJ bet, Russian shove I think as CJ can come over the top … We call a CJ bet Russian fold and check any Turn, even the J.
Could the 3-bet been bigger? We ‘only’ raised 1000 over a 2075 pot with our call and other to act behind. I think we could have bumped this up with intention of calling/folding a Russian shove but pricing out CJ and others … maybe 2200, not 1700? Had you been stealing very much?
3bet sizing in deep tourneys column???
I think CJ must think you have a good hand here…and perhaps more importantly that there is a very good chance the Russian is going to shove so I put CJ on a hand that might at least consider calling the Russian if you fold.
So pairs 88+ /AK/ and maybe for deception or whatever 10Js/89s/87s. I also include AA since you said he was tricky and could hope it goes shove/call…
After reading this hand history it occurs to me DEEP STACK play is HARD.
wow it seems like our hand is so face up if we bet that CJ is going to make a play at us at some point. So I would check…not really sure about anything else so I’ll leave it to the rest of the people 🙂
Pre flop reads:
Russian can’t have a big pair or he would have 4B. His calling range should be very tight here OOP with only 30BB. Note that he has almost 20% of his stack in OOP in a 3B pot multi way. He likely called with a medium pair after Cliff came along. Probably would have folded or shoved heads up.
Same for Cliff. He can’t have a big pair (AA,KK) as he likely 4Bs to get the pot heads up.
He could have all sorts of implied odds hands given your stack size and his position, but often shows up with a medium pocket pair also.
I am betting about 2/3 pot to protect my hand and fold the over cards. If I am behind, better to find out now. My general plan is to pot control with Cliff and not be afraid of the Russian unless I think he really hit the flop hard (set). There are very few draws for him given the rainbow flop. I would not expect him to show up with suited connectors.
a) Cliff folds, Russian shoves. CR shove is a strong line on a fairly dry board. You have to go with your read here as he either has it (set) or he doesn’t and may think you whiffed with AK, AQ or any random A you may have 3B with (you know how you internet kids play with the BLOCKER, ha). Again, I don’t expect him to show up with 87s or QJs (unless he is awful).
b) Cliff calls, Russian shoves. Fold. You are likely drawing to 2 outs. I am more afraid of Cliff’s call than the Russian’s shove.
c) Cliff calls, Russian folds, turn is the 2c. He called with a piece of the flop or a monster slow played (set). I guess he could be floating with pair + draw and may try to take the pot away from us on the turn.
Here is where I always take my foot off of the gas (too often) in the name of pot control. However, I am in pure pot control mode here and hope to check at least one street. I don’t expect to get 3 streets of value from worse. If he bets, I am probably calling and hoping he slows down on the river. If he bets again, I don’t think I can call unless I think he was floating and turned his hand (pair) into a bluff. I can’t beat anything in his value range on the river.
d) Cliff calls, Russian folds, turn is the Th. Terrible card for us if he called with suited connectors. Could have easily hit a five outer on us. Check and decide, bet river if he checks behind.
e) Cliff calls, Russian folds, turn is the Kd. Looks like a scare card, but really should not be in his calling range. He may expect you to bluff at this card and may call light.
I may be more inclined to bet turn here and fold if raised.
In general, I think I am losing value by checking so often on many turns. This loses control of the pot and provides less information on the strength of his turn bet.
I tend to follow the bet, check, bet line to pick up the crying calls on the river while also avoiding playing big pots when I have been out flopped.
Too careful?
I bet 4000.
a) call
b) call It will be an incomplete raise from the Russian, so I don’t have to worry about a re-raise from Cliff
c) bet 9K
d) check
e) check
Not really confident in this situation, but this is prbably what I’d do if I was really playing the hand.
Ok I’ll bite. First I want to say that this spot is hard.
I also want to suggest something I wouldn’t normally, which I just changed my mind to, and that is betting to take it down now/for protection. Our hand really sucks. This spot really sucks and the intersection of ranges with this board really sucks. So do the possible turn cards for villain’s ranges. We aren’t ever going to get two or three streets from Bax here. We aren’t going to check it down and be able to show down our hand. Pretty much every time the flop checks through I feel like we lose the vast majority of the time.
So I want to bet 2450. We can get all those troublesome hands like AQ/KQ that are freerolling us on a check-through to fold. We can charge 77/88 gutshots, and we can bet/call versus the Russian, though it is a grudge bet/call. Thankfully Russian doesn’t ever have AA-QQ.
1. If you bet, what’s your plan if…
a) Cliff folds, Russian shoves. Call. Hope to see KQs, 88/77, ATs often enough.
b) Cliff calls, Russian shoves. Fold. Cliff’s range is uncapped in this action and really what can he have but better?
c) Cliff calls, Russian folds, turn is the 2c. Check. Check most rivers and hopefully win the pot.
d) Cliff calls, Russian folds, turn is the Th. If we bet/shove can we fold him off QQ?
e) Cliff calls, Russian folds, turn is the Kd. Definitely bet/shove.
Mostly I have no idea what I am doing in this spot.
“We aren’t going to check it down and be able to show down our hand.” – that’s why I like betting just enough that the Russian’s shove is an incomplete raise – if b) happens then Cliff can’t re-pop and then it gets checked down (if cliff bets turn or river then we are beat).
So we thank the Russian for his opening raise when we get back from dinner!! This could have been one of those cooler hands for sure. If we are heads up to this Flop I dont think CJ raises our Flop bet and then the bleeding continues unless we are saved by the board somehow.
A more likely heads up scenario would be with you calling CJ’s 3-bet and then checking the Turn for evaluation of CJ’s c-bet. I still think you call a reasonable bet there though and then maybe reconsider calling his River bet without improvement. Still led to bleeding off some chips though …
I’m sure it was tempting to re-raise the Flop but I agree that your range of 3-bet hands is very narrow and only 10-10 really applies that would have CJ beat … and why would you re-raise with a set of 10s on this board? Probably not going to happen … which in turn tells him he has a customer!!
Now just calling the Flop raise and leading out on the Turn might give him pause but if we have a set of 10s I dont think we lead-out the Turn into a raiser. Not until the River unless we actually do hit our set, then we throw out some mis-direction and hope he thinks we have KK.