Playing 10-handed $1/$3 no-limit hold ’em. Villain has roughly $300, Hero covers.
Villain is relatively new to the table, but he’s already complaining, good-naturedly but often, about how he’s getting nothing but bad cards. Before looking at his cards this hand, he said, “I just want to see one card over a 6. Just one!”
In the time that Villain has been at the table, I believe I’ve exhibited solidly TAGish tendencies, entering relatively few pots but always with a raise and usually winning on the flop with a continuation bet.
Action folds to me on the button, and I open to $12 with 9d 9h. This is larger than I’d usually open the button, but I think Villain in the big blind is eager to play and will call way too wide. SB folds, Villain calls without hesitation.
Flop 8s 8c 5s, and Villain laughs out loud in a sort of, “Can you believe this?” sort of way.
I smile at him and say, “Right in your wheelhouse, huh?”
“We’ll have to see,” he answers, tapping the table.
There’s $23 in the pot after rake. What’s your play and why? Way too much could happen to start making specific plans for later streets, so I just want to know whether you bet, and if so, how much and why?
Post your thoughts and comments here, and I’ll be back on Friday with my own thoughts and the results.
Bet enough that it’s a real mistake for him to call with overcards. I think that’s what he has (his comment interpreted: “The one time I have big cards, small cards flop!”) and I don’t think he wants to stop playing this hand. I’d probably bet $20 and expect him to peel about 65% of the time.
It’s also possible that he flopped a gutshot or something, but you want to bet against that hand too. Once in a while he will have something like TT or JJ and fear that you have an eight, as strange as that sounds. I think it’s very unlikely that he has an eight.
(If you get raised, I would be a bit worried that he is trying to “protect his hand” with a naked 5 or a small pocket pair, but I would still probably fold. This would be a case of an unlikely event causing me to drastically modify my earlier read. I expect it to happen <3% of the time.)
How big have your flop c-bets been in previous pots you’ve taken down?
I’m betting what I usually bet, something like one third to half the pot. In this case I think I’d bet an even $10. I can see an argument for checking behind for pot control, but I think that’s better done on the turn, once the villain has committed money after the flop.
We have a small hand on a dry flop. We aren’t going to get very much action unless we’re smoked. Let’s keep the pot small.
It is very unlikely that he has us beat. I also think with this villain we will be able to pick up tells as he reacts to our actions and future streets. I’d bet small, about $10, and expect to be called reasonably wide – any draw and possibly the overs he is likely to have will find a call here.
The laugh is weakness, although I don’t know that you need to attempt to read too much into it. I agree that Nate’s interpretation is likely correct. Assuming you bet in increments of 5, I’d bet 15 because I think that’s probably what you bet with your betting range on this flop (given that the board is paired but does have flush/straight draw).
As an aside, and I’m sure you’ve thought about this, if you are ever in a situation where a live player is doing something that you find it hard to interpret, I think you’re best served simply ignoring it and just crushing them in the range game that you are much better at. Since you have much more experience online, this sort of table talk guessing-game may be the only aspect of poker in which your opponents might have an edge on you. Obviously I know you are keen on improving this and hence the post, but I think it’s an important point for when you are making the decision at the table.
i have little experience in both online and live poker, but i’d bet in the neighborhood of $18. basically targeting smaller pairs and charge FDs and overcards. if we check and over card comes on the turn it’ll be hard for us to get paid.
i’m not sure how to interpret his laugh tho.
“In the time that Villain has been at the table, I believe I’ve exhibited solidly TAGish tendencies, entering relatively few pots but always with a raise and usually winning on the flop with a continuation bet.”
If he hasn’t been there long, I wouldn’t put much weight into this.
Even after hours at the table, most live 1/2, 1/3 players aren’t observant
enough to have a good idea of your tendencies.
Even if they do notice you have been playing a certain way, they’re likely
just going to play their hands in a very set way once they see something
they want to play with, whether it’s a spot they like to bluff or try to get
to showdown.
“Way too much could happen to start making specific plans for later streets…?”
It’s very difficult to look at this in a vacuum and analyze it, but why not.
If we were playing a game where there was only a turn and no river, I would
want to bet as much as possible now, because on he next street we are going
to be betting very small, if at all, in order to target a tiny calling range.
Most of his calling hands on the flop (draws, worse pairs, overs, Ax with a BD
draw, etc.) are either folding the turn or have made better hands than ours.
Assuming he never slow plays pre flop(in a random 1/3 game vs a random player,
I would consider slow playing not raising QQ+)our equity on the flop is going
to be somewhere around 67-70% depending on how many 8x and shitty connected/
suited cards he continues with.
( I used a range of JJ-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q8o,JTo-J8o,T9o-T8o,98o-97o,87o-86o,76o,65o,54o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K5s,QJs-Q7s,JTs-J7s,T9s-T7s,98s-96s,87s-85s,76s-74s,
65s-64s,54s,43s which is a bit less than 50% of hands, which I actually think is
fair for an anxious villain in the BB facing one player opening from the button)
The mini speech can mean so many things. It could be a monster, it could be an
honest disappointment with air, it could be a draw that he doesn’t want to have to
pay too much for. We can’t really know.
With all that being said I’m probably betting around $18 because whatever he wants
to continue with, will likely call $18 just as often as $12 because it’s “only $18”.
Most live players tend to think in terms of absolute terms rather than relative
terms, whether it be hand strength or bet sizing.
It is also a pretty wet board and although we have 99 there are still a good
amount of draws that we can add to his flop calling range.
What do I do vs a check/raise? Well, “I just want to know whether you bet, and
if so, how much and why?” So maybe next time.
Nice post. I added that clause at the end just so people didn’t feel overwhelmed at the prospect of trying to plot out what they’d do on all the various turn/river scenarios. I’d encourage you to talk about your plan for a check-raise if you feel it’s significant to your flop bet.
The prospect of being raised isn’t going to change my sizing. Unless
previously noted, most players at this level are going to take a very
passive approach without monsters.
It is pretty dependent on the raise size, but for the most part I’m just
bet folding in these spots. Even with a decent 8 I would not be surprised
to just see just a call on the flop, so a raising range is likely to be
very nutted or huge draws.
If he is only raising over pairs, A8, 88, 55, NFDs and 76ss we’re crushed vs
his range (less than 25% equity)
Against A2ss we’re only 60% and vs 76ss we’re basically flipping, so I’d just
chuck it.
If he does show us something ridiculous, we can adjust, but we have no reason
to continue vs his raises right now.
Should have said “somewhat” wet board , but you get the idea
I want to make it very difficult for him to ever get a chance to realize the 30%ish equity his range does have in this spot.
And yes, I do think there is a psychological difference betting less than $20, and keeping his calling range wide.
Your value target is pocket pairs, esp 66 and 77, but also 22-44. You are also hoping to get As5, Ks5, 65 to come along. FD+overcards (ATss-Axss, KQss-K7ss, QJss-Q9ss, JTss-J9ss) will almost certainly continue. If opponent is frustrated/tilted, you may also get loose calls from Asx, Ksx, and other non-spade overcards. You are looking to get two streets of value, but not three — most likely on flop and turn.
C-bet the same size you have in previous hands, which I assume to be around 1/2 pot ($12). Be prepared to call small to medium-sized flop CR, say to $40. It is probably best to fold to flop CRAI because the pot is still relatively small. Folding away an equity advantage when you are a small favorite facing draws (esp overcards+FD) is not as big of an error as getting 10x the pot size when you are crushed by a narrow range of opponent’s monsters (trips, FH, over pairs — though this last category should be discounted in view of preflop betting).
If flop action goes check-bet-call, you should bet again on most turn cards excepting flush cards or another 5.
If flop action goes check-bet-CR-call, you should fold if opponent (over) shoves remaining $148 into $103 pot. If he checks, bet 1/3 pot for value. If you are called on the turn, you should probably check back most rivers.
Feels like 77 or AK(both red)…I bet 12…hope to get called once…and I am shocked if I get raised here. Already asking myself if I should not tipple barrel and thereby check turn or bet turn and give up.
We most likely have the best hand, and villain seems itching to play a hand, so that would be a reason for betting. He also seems like the type that will be easy to read on subsequent streets, so we don’t mind giving a free card and re-evaluating on the next street, which favors checking. Another reason for betting is to build a bigger pot – we have position and he’s a weaker player who might make more mistakes as the pot gets bigger. I favor betting pot, $23, as that will allow us to bet 3 streets, and get all-in on the river.
My first thought was that this could be a spot for a certain Brokosian tactic of checking behind because you might learn more about the amount of strength you are up against from villains action on the turn card than you would from his reaction to a c-bet. However, I feel as though there is an advantage to betting here.
We can presume that we have some decent share of equity in this pot with our 9s up.
My read on his flop laugh is:
-this time he had overcards and whiffed (disbelief at his bad luck)
-he binked an 8 (disbelief at good luck)
-he flopped some sort of straight draw (disbelief at the coordination of his 5 card hand)
-other parts of his range include FDs, PPs, suited As that whiffed the FD on flop…
In only one case are we in terrible shape here. So I like putting in a c-bet of about 15-18$ should serve a couple of purposes. For one, it charges him in a spot where he may want to pay and peel without a good price. For another, it looks “standard” and should offer no additional info to anyone else at the table who may be more attentive/been following for longer.
If he check/raises I feel as though chances are he isn’t on a bluff since bluffers don’t tend to be extra vocal when executing a bluff. Also, you mentioned your image was TAG so he doesn’t have reason (other than dry board) to suspect you as firing too often.
Another reason I like a bet when your hand is likely good is that there are 20 ten-ace cards (18 if he holds overs), 5 lower spades (that don’t fill you up), and some straight draw cards which could all hurt your hands relative strength vs his range. So more than half the deck is looking kinda bad on the turn, which is another reason I like a bet.
If he calls flop and leads one of those bad turn cards, pending reads, I would probably fold.