This one comes from a $5/$10 no-limit hold ’em game at the Venetian. I’m new to the table, initially bought in for $1000 but relatively quickly decided to load up enough to cover the table. I don’t think I’ve done anything else of note since I’ve been here, but that alone is probably enough to help people make some correct assumptions.
I don’t have any reads on Villains other than their general appearances and demeanors. Villain 1 looks and acts like a recreational player, and this isn’t the first time he’s limped. He’s playing about $1000. Villain 2 looks and acts like a pro, but I don’t know whether he’s strictly a live pro or if he used to play online. He’s about 24 years old and has roughly $3000 in front of him.
Villain 1 open limps in middle position, Villain 2 makes it $40 two off the button, I call with 8s 7s on the button, the BB calls, and Villain 1 calls.
Flop ($165) 9s 9c 6d. BB checks, Villain 1 quickly bets $70, Villain 2 quickly raises to $230, I think for a bit and call. BB and Villain 1 both fold without further thought.
My thinking on the call is that I have the nut bluffing hand and neither player is particularly likely to have a 9, both because of combinatorics and based on their actions and timing. Given how deep I am with Villain 2, a call here should make it uncomfortable for him to continue even with something as strong as Aces.
The biggest question for me on the flop is whether to call or raise. I thought a call might actually look stronger while limiting my exposure in case someone continued to show interest. Plus there’s a chance, even if someone has a hand that he isn’t going to fold, that I’ll make a straight on the turn (though I’d still have to proceed with some caution).
Turn ($695) 9h. Villain 2 checks. What’s your play? Do you want to follow through with the plan, give it up, or maybe even check it back and make some fancy move on the river? If you do choose to bluff, what’s your target and how much would you bet?
Post your suggestions and questions here, and I’ll be back with my own thoughts as well as the results on Friday.
Zeebo theorem (no one ever folds a full house) in tension with your ridiculously strong appearance on the flop. I couldn’t find a reference to “nut bluffing hand” in that article, but I’m almost positive that what you mean is that you want to be able to show up with something other than a 9 in this spot, and this is the perfect hand to do it with (especially since there is no flush draw).
Your call is likely to make him think that you do not have air in your range (again, you have the only draw possible, so combinationally you are, from his perspective, fairly likely to have the case 9. 16 combos of 87 (assuming you’re calling 87o for 4x 300bb deep OTB) and you are probably playing A9s, Q9s(?), J9s, J9o(?), T9s, T9o, 89s, 89o, 97s, 96s. I also think that most people would probably fold some percent of their 87 range and/or may not play 100% of it pre-flop.
The one thing you must not do is play in such a way that he can convince himself that his KK is beating your QQ/JJ. I suppose you can still avoid this by checking turn and going for a massive river raise, but I think the most believable line from someone with a 9 300bb deep is to bet fairly large on the turn, looking to get AM$AP in. A slight turn overbet could look especially scary (~725-750), as it shows that a river shove is coming. However, you might consider it more profitable to bet an amount that he is more likely to call on the turn so that you can make him fold the river.
I’m a bit worried though that your line looks so strong on the flop that he is going to fold AA to any turn bet that is approximately 2/3-3/4 pot or more. So I suppose my bluffing target is his whole range except 9’s (since you have nothing, and I think is range is fairly strong). I think if you bet ~550 (or more) on the turn and get called, there is a serious chance that he has the case 9.
All that said, you have the nut bluffing hand, need to balance your range, and can’t only ever have a 9 here when playing 300bb deep against competent opponents. I think I’ve talked myself into betting around 550 (I actually want AA-QQ to call so that they can fold the river) and then bombing the river for full pot or more, but I do think a bet of 725-750 will fold his entire range except 9x which could also be hugely profitable. Really looking forward to what others say on this.
One other thing. You have 8s7s and the case 9 is the 9 of spades. This is good because he is less likely to have the 9s in his hand (he probably raises suited connectors, and you have two of the cards that he’d raise in conjunction with the 9s (e.g. raising As9s, Js9s, Ts9s, 9s8s, 9s7s), so he probably has the case 9 60% of the time that he normally would had you not had these blockers.
Makes me like going with your plan even more.
So you think he’s folding AA here if we keep betting? I sure don’t. We didn’t raise preflop so the villain might not even give us credit for a big pair, meaning it’s hard for us to represent any hand that beats a decent pocket pair, other than the 9. So yeah, sucks to give up on a hand like this but I don’t see him folding many made hands.
Why not raise pre? You will get a LOT of folds IMO. If you do get called you will get a decent number of bluffable flops.
On the flop Villain 2 is very likely to have an overpair. I think that calling is probably marginal. We aren’t quite getting good enough odds to hit our straight. So, we are going to have to represent a 9 at some point. I don’t think people fold overpairs often enough for a turn semi-bluff to work out in our favor and there aren’t any turn cards that are going to scare him. Yes, a flop call looks quite strong here but without a stronger read I’m not confident enough that we can get Villain to fold an overpair.
A raise on the flop looks pretty good. We can set up stacks better for a very threatening bet on the turn and get some serious fold equity to go with our straight equity across the flop and turn. I think it would be reasonable for Hero to raise with a 9 on the flop considering the stack depth.
As played on the turn Villain is ultra polarized so he’s going to tend to play well against us if we bet – calling when ahead and folding when behind. Take the free card.
I’d have to go back to read previous posts to see if this was an intentional level, but either way I had a good laugh. TY.
Pot turn, give up river.
At this point, our range is likely polarized to 9x or bluffs (including the counterfeited 66, and assuming you’re not cold flatting the flop raise with mid-strength pocket pairs). We want to be able to get all the money in with 9x, so we should play our bluffs that way as well; a pot bet on turn sets up a pot sized river shove. Targeting his overpairs.
Give up on river for a couple reasons. First, since our range is so polarized, if HE has 9x, the only way he gets max value is by inducing bluffs. Bayes Theorem tells us this makes his check/calling range weighted more towards 9x than it might appear at first glance. Second, since we’re threatening the river jam with the turn bet, its unlikely he folds often after calling the turn. And finally, jamming all bluffs makes our range way too bluff heavy, allowing him to call all marginal hands profitably.
For what its worth, if I’m ever bluffing river, this would be the first hand I’d put into that range, for blocker considerations someone mentioned above.
Love everything you said except the last reason for not jamming river. We are not jamming “all bluffs” if this is basically the only bluffing hand in our range (or at least the first hand we’d include in our bluffing range, which I think we are agreed upon). If we aren’t jamming this, then we are only jamming the nuts, and that would be unbalanced.
Good point, there was definitely a break in logic there. I keep going back and forth myself, to be honest.
Maybe my thought process was wrong, coming from years of playing small stakes online/live, but in these rare spots where the river is basically irrelevant, it just seems like most Villains make up their mind on the turn, rarely following a check/call with a check/fold. Especially against sizing that looks designed specifically to follow up with a river jam.
So if x% of Villains do think this way, and y% defend with unexploitable continuation ranges, wouldn’t that make all river bluffs -EV? And can’t we exploit their imbalance by never bluffing river? If so, are the benefits of maintaining balance greater than this loss? I have no idea.
But this is why we come to this blog, eh?
Preflop : Villain 1 limps then villain 2 raises. Is this value raise with a range of AJ+, TT+ or is this an isolation raise against a weaker player? I feel that villain 1 was the weaker one from the two you described and that these two players might have had history between each other but we cant say for sure. I feel that for value villain 2 would have raised more with KK+ for value. This suggests that he may be quite wide in his opening range also because he is not utg or anything like that.
Flop : I feel that villains 2 raise on the flop could possibly be again an isolation raise against that weaker player and even though there are 4 players to the hand this flop is pretty dry despite the straight draw present. Its a hit or miss flop more or less and with his raise he knows that no one can really call unless they have a 9 or full house based on the preflop actions that indicate no one had a big pair. Also with this raise someone with a straight draw can not call just ot hit his hand as he is not getting good enough odds. Theres still a change that villain 2 is against a mid pocket pair but not likely.
Since this flop is pretty dry i believe that villain 2 would have thought a little more with a hand like KK+ and possibly QQ or any 9. This leads me to think that villain more or less has a mid pair 88,TT,JJ,AQ+ plus his bluffs which include some straight draws on this flop.
Turn: I really think this is a close decision between giving it up and firing both on turn and river. The upside or downside to giving up is that we give off a loose passive image if it goes to showdown and he has like a high or TT but not sure its a bad thing to have this image either. I still prefer firing the turn and betting the river. I would bet 300/fold and fire for about 700 on the river. My thinking is that it would be tougher for him to call two bets then it would be for him to call one if we checked then fired river or if he bet and we raised river. I just think it puts a lot of pressure on him. I dont see the point in betting more on the turn because if we are going to fire two bullets on a bluff might as well make it cheaper and i just dont think that we need to bet more on the turn to get the same result of him folding.
Preflop : Villain 1 limps then villain 2 raises. Is this value raise with a range of AJ+, TT+ or is this an isolation raise against a weaker player? I feel that villain 1 was the weaker one from the two you described and that these two players might have had history between each other but we cant say for sure. I feel that for value villain 2 would have raised more with KK+ for value. This suggests that he may be quite wide in his opening range also because he is not utg or anything like that.
Flop : I feel that villains 2 raise on the flop could possibly be again an isolation raise against that weaker player and even though there are 4 players to the hand this flop is pretty dry despite the straight draw present. Its a hit or miss flop more or less and with his raise he knows that no one can really call unless they have a 9 or full house based on the preflop actions that indicate no one had a big pair. Also with this raise someone with a straight draw can not call just ot hit his hand as he is not getting good enough odds. Theres still a change that villain 2 is against a mid pocket pair but not likely.
Since this flop is pretty dry i believe that villain 2 would have thought a little more with a hand like KK+ and possibly QQ or any 9. This leads me to think that villain more or less has a mid pair 88,TT,JJ,AQ+ plus his bluffs which include some straight draws on this flop.
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Turn: I really think this is a close decision between giving it up and firing both on turn and river. The upside or downside to giving up is that we give off a loose passive image if it goes to showdown and he has like a high or TT but not sure its a bad thing to have this image either. I still prefer firing the turn and betting the river. I would bet 300/fold and fire for about 700 on the river. My thinking is that it would be tougher for him to call two bets then it would be for him to call one if we checked then fired river or if he bet and we raised river. I just think it puts a lot of pressure on him. I dont see the point in betting more on the turn because if we are going to fire two bullets on a bluff might as well make it cheaper and i just dont think that we need to bet more on the turn to get the same result of him folding.
Preflop : Villain 1 limps then villain 2 raises. Is this value raise with a range of AJ+, TT+ or is this an isolation raise against a weaker player? I feel that villain 1 was the weaker one from the two you described and that these two players might have had history between each other but we cant say for sure. I feel that for value villain 2 would have raised more with KK+ for value. This suggests that he may be quite wide in his opening range also because he is not utg or anything like that.
Flop : I feel that villains 2 raise on the flop could possibly be again an isolation raise against that weaker player and even though there are 4 players to the hand this flop is pretty dry despite the straight draw present. Its a hit or miss flop more or less and with his raise he knows that no one can really call unless they have a 9 or full house based on the preflop actions that indicate no one had a big pair. Also with this raise someone with a straight draw can not call just ot hit his hand as he is not getting good enough odds. Theres still a change that villain 2 is against a mid pocket pair but not likely.
Since this flop is pretty dry i believe that villain 2 would have thought a little more with a hand like KK+ and possibly QQ or any 9. This leads me to think that villain more or less has a mid pair 88,TT,JJ,AQ+ plus his bluffs which include some straight draws on this flop.g
Turn: I really think this is a close decision between giving it up and firing both on turn and river. The upside or downside to giving up is that we give off a loose passive image if it goes to showdown and he has like a high or TT but not sure its a bad thing to have this image either. I still prefer firing the turn and betting the river. I would bet 300/fold and fire for about 700 on the river. My thinking is that it would be tougher for him to call two bets then it would be for him to call one if we checked then fired river or if he bet and we raised river. I just think it puts a lot of pressure on him. I dont see the point in betting more on the turn because if we are going to fire two bullets on a bluff might as well make it cheaper and i just dont think that we need to bet more on the turn to get the same result of him folding.
Preflop : Villain 1 limps then villain 2 raises. Is this value raise with a range of AJ+, TT+ or is this an isolation raise against a weaker player? I feel that villain 1 was the weaker one from the two you described and that these two players might have had history between each other but we cant say for sure. I feel that for value villain 2 would have raised more with KK+ for value. This suggests that he may be quite wide in his opening range also because he is not utg or anything like that.
Flop : I feel that villains 2 raise on the flop could possibly be again an isolation raise against that weaker player and even though there are 4 players to the hand this flop is pretty dry despite the straight draw present. Its a hit or miss flop more or less and with his raise he knows that no one can really call unless they have a 9 or full house based on the preflop actions that indicate no one had a big pair. Also with this raise someone with a straight draw can not call just ot hit his hand as he is not getting good enough odds. Theres still a change that villain 2 is against a mid pocket pair but not likely.
Since this flop is pretty dry i believe that villain 2 would have thought a little more with a hand like KK+ and possibly QQ or any 9. This leads me to think that villain more or less has a mid pair 88,TT,JJ,AQ+ plus his bluffs which include some straight draws on this flop.t
Turn: I really think this is a close decision between giving it up and firing both on turn and river. The upside or downside to giving up is that we give off a loose passive image if it goes to showdown and he has like a high or TT but not sure its a bad thing to have this image either. I still prefer firing the turn and betting the river. I would bet 300/fold and fire for about 700 on the river. My thinking is that it would be tougher for him to call two bets then it would be for him to call one if we checked then fired river or if he bet and we raised river. I just think it puts a lot of pressure on him. I dont see the point in betting more on the turn because if we are going to fire two bullets on a bluff might as well make it cheaper and i just dont think that we need to bet more on the turn to get the same result of him folding.
I like a bet of around $250 here. My target would be any broadway hands villain was bluffing raising the donkbet with. I like a bet because.
1. It avoids the problem of the limiting turn call and allows you to bluff the river if you miss and think you can get him to fold some small pairs.
2. It gets you a free river in case you pick up some showdown value and want to just check it back.
3. It gets more value in the pot in case you hit your straight and want to go for some thin river value in case he wants to hero call with something like AK.
4. You dont have to bet big to get all the info you need.
I feel like a nit/fish because all these spots feel like folds to me. I like the plan on the flop call, and agree that the flop call looks very scary. However, the 9 is the worst turn card for your plan. You really need to rep a 9 because it is very hard to rep an overpair here (I’m sure you have a few in your range but given your preflop flat call I think they are quite unlikely), certainly villain has many more overpairs than you do in this spot. So the 9 on the turn makes it much harder to rep a 9, and it also kills all the equity of your semi-bluff. It is hard for me to see villain folding an overpair here, I think he makes too many crying calls with “I’ll always pay off quads” kind of logic. Even though your flop call looks so strong here, this spot is just so polarized that I don’t see a typical villain laying down a big hand. If I am going to bluff, I will put in a pretty large bet on the turn, because if we want to fold out a hand like TT or JJ (or AA), I think we need the threat of bombing the river behind to have any chance.
If hero’s cold call OTF overwhelmingly reps a 9 (which is the assumption I’m working on), the 9 on the turn only reduces the chance that hero holds a 9 by 50%, so as long as hero’s range was sufficiently weighted toward 9x OTF then villain should be able to fold (this is a pro 300bb deep). “Quads” when 3 of the rank are on the board is not that difficult; this would not be an especially epic fold, even with AA. The really tricky thing about AA/KK for villain is the risk that hero might have cold called with JJ/QQ and be value-betting a worse hand, which is why I think it’s important to take a polarizing turn line (betting near or at full pot).
I dunno if I’m just crazy or what, but really deep, in position, on this board, I much prefer cold-3betting on the flop rather than calling. If we’re basically going to make a play to try and get him to fold overpairs, because he’s never folding 9x – at least not on the flop, and obv not on this turn – it seems like it’s easier and cheaper to do that with a flop raise than trying to make fancy moves on the turn and river. I don’t know what reads you have, if any, but I’m mostly bluff-raising the flop and giving up if I miss, mostly because I expect him to realize OTF his whole stack is at risk if he calls and make the decision to commit early.
The problem I have with flatting and trying to bluff turns in general is it makes your range look wider/weaker, whereas a raise is more polarizing. If he has like KK here, he could feasibly convince himself you’ have something like TT, 6x, etc. and c/c or bet or something on turn blanks, and otherwise just not give up because you have weaker stuff in your range. With a polarized range, he can’t really deduce anything – it’s just “do you have 9x or not?”
This is also the reason I would almost definitely give up this turn – Zeebo and all that…
Pre-flop iso ranges live never seem to be that wide, mostly because people are always calling. And when he 3-bets the flop donk bet he is still doing it into a 4 way pot. Plus you said he “quickly raised”. You can probably discount super strong holdings like 9x, 66, and AA somewhat because he would at least consider calling, and also air because he could consider folding. What’s left is hand that are good now but don’t want to see a turn card with 3 players still in the pot. This suggests 77,88,TT,JJ and 6x (KK and QQ could be in the “consider calling with” range depending on the player). Maybe AK/AQ gets played this way too. So if I were to bet the turn I would make it an amount that would jeopardize most of his stack on the river since I don’t think he wants to get stacks in with these hands. $450 sound right.
But in practice I think I’m giving up. I feel especially nitty after reading all these replies but these situations never work out for me. I’m always getting hero called with 65 no matter what happens on the river (unless the fourth 9 peels). If I hit a 5,T,7, or 8 I would go for a thin value bet of about $300 looking to get called by A high.
I think villain’s range is mostly over-pairs and bluffs (over-cards). He could have the case 9, but it’s probably a very small % of his range (5% maybe?).
I could see him both value and bluff raising villain 1, not really considering what you might possibly
do, as villain 1 was his intended target when he originally raised (and you haven’t played much since you sat down).
So his check on the turn is either a sign of giving up (bluffs), pot control (over pairs), or going for a check-raise (or call any bet w/9’s).
I think we should continue are story and make a “value bet” that looks like we are intending to get a good full two streets of value.
The bluff target is his bluffs (which are stil a better hand than ours) and the lower range of the over-pairs (10’s, J’s, and Q’s; maybe even K’s).
I bet $680, which should make him realize we plan to put him all-in on the river with another pot size bet.
If he check-raises I fold and if he calls I probably give up on the river (barring some live tell).
I don’t think a check and bluff on the river will work against his over pairs. He’ll call a much higher % of time since he only has to call the one bet.
225 on the turn with the option of shoving the river for 2.5k depending on your read.
One problem is that you could be turning 66 into a bluff with that line. Its cool that there aren’t many draws on the flop but I would be checking river a fair amount after betting 1/3p on the turn. Probably 15% of the time he’ll do something that makes me shovel it though.
would like to hear more about your reason for 1/3 psb on turn and river overbet
Neither villain’s actions on the flop are particularly scary – the donk is usually weak in my experience, and the raise can therefore be quite weak, too – unpaired overs, an overpair possibly too, I suppose a 9. On the other hand, your overcall is really quite scary.
So it’s not a terrible spot to rep a 9. I doubt that you get a villain off a full house with 1 bet, but you will put a hell of a lot of pressure on with 2. So I think that you can bet the turn, hoping to get villain to fold his unpaired overcards, with an option of betting again to possibly fold out some full houses. I doubt I would have the stones to launch the second shell in reality.
Given that I don’t expect villain to fold a full house to 1 bet, but maybe to 2, it makes more sense to make a normal sized bet on the turn – 1/2 pot or whatever – and leave a big bet for the river.