We were playing a $2/$5 game with a mandatory $10 straddle. A couple people limped, and then a tight and straightforward player raised to $60 with about $1000 behind. I had a pretty maniacal reputation and so was pleased to find a pair of Kings. I raised to $160, everyone else grumbled and folded, and the original raiser called. The flop came Ad 7d 7h, and he bet $200. I folded without much thought, and he proudly showed a pair of Aces for a flopped full house.
If in situations like this you choose to focus on your bad luck – “Every time I have Kings, an Ace flops!” or “Every time I have Kings, someone has Aces!” – you’re missing the point. Analyzed though the lens of reciprocality, all that matters is that if I’d had the Aces and he the Kings, I would have won more than he did.
This is one of the great deceptions of poker. It feels as if winning pots, especially big ones, is the way you win money. Thus, it can feel like you got robbed when you lose the pot with a big hand. The truth, though, is that I made a lot of money by losing so little with Kings vs Aces.
If this particular opponent 4 bets all in pre flop, do you fold?
Not to answer for him, but my thought here is that Andrew’s image as maniacal is too big a factor. Besides, this player was described as “a straightforward player” not “biggest nit on earth.” So I think that to fold KK pre to a four bet when 200 BB deep at a 2/5 game would probably require Andrew to look like he’s on the nitty side and for this player to be a big ol nit himself.
If we were actually 200BB deep, I could actually see folding it (or just not putting in enough raises myself to the point where getting stacks in pre would be a possibility). A big part of the reason I can be so maniacal is that preflop reraises are so rare. But with the straddle on we were only 100BB deep, and it would be hard to exclude QQ and maybe even AK from his range.
Ah – I forgot to consider that important factor about the mandatory straddle! I guess as stacks are more in the 200BB depth the likelihood of him only getting in pre- with AA or KK goes up leaving you in bad shape since the QQ and AK combos will probably mostly find folds? I was interpreting your maniacal image as something that might result in QQ and AK still getting it in even >100BB because of “how often can he really be beating QQ?” or something of the sort. Maybe I’m assuming too much gamble in our tight/straightforward opponent here.
Good perspective Andrew. Steady asks an interesting question above. Based on your read you folded when an Ace hit, based on that same read, can you fold to four bet?
“Every time I have Kings, an Ace flops!”
I have a decent attitude about this, that’s just poker. But this is golden…
“The truth, though, is that I made a lot of money by losing so little with Kings vs Aces.”
Winning by not making a bad call and paying off. Great concept, certainly something I’m working on in my game.
God, that Foucault is so lucky! Every time he has a second best hand he gets away so cheaply!
Good one!
Everything is relative. KK is not a good hand in this situation even if he didn’t lead. Whenever that A flops you just have to check it down, maybe squeeze in a small river value bet, and hope for the best. It’s pretty much a stalemate vs a villain like this who probably never bluffs or value bets thinly.
I make myself feel better by realizing that hole cards are not hands. Good hole cards have the potential to become good hands, but that depends on the flop and on perceived ranges. In this spot, you don’t have “Cowboys.” You have second pair and most likely an 8% chance to win the pot at best.
One question I have is if it’s TRUE in some games that winning pots is the way to make money? For example, my regular game is full of players who like to hero call. The only way I know to make money in that game is to make top pair or better and value bet it. Not many bluffs get through and it’s hard to make good hands so I am never able to build a maniacal image. I’m the village nit, which I hate being, but I think it is the correct strategy in that game.
I guess the second half of my Bet-Fold strategy is the part where I make money by not winning pots. I’ll do it until further notice, but the rent man don’t take Sklansky Bucks, so it’s sometimes tough to realize I’ve made money when I make hero folds.
Good article.
This type of hand is perfect to let you know where you stand in the poker world. I would find it WAY more important to know how you handled the next orbit or 2 in response to ‘missing out’ when you had a premium starting hand.
Can you handle this hand the same if you have AK or the Flop is AK7?
Most of the solace(?) in this hand is you had a read on your opponent and he played the part beautifully by leading out with the 2nd nuts to confirm our read and pitch it without much further thought or loss of chips.
The much bigger task is putting this guy on AK, value betting him for 3 streets only to have an Ace hit the River and mucking at that point because he saw you as a maniac and didn’t believe you ‘had it’ for this hand and sucked out on you. Can you make this fold as easily as the OP fold? GL