I’ve got two new poker strategy articles to share with you. The first is the conclusion of my analysis of the infamous Mark Newhouse bustout hand from the 2014 WSOP Main Event (the first part of the article is here):
“[T]his looks like a textbook example of a “leveling war”, with each player trying to anticipate and stay one step ahead of his opponent’s exploitive strategy. Clearly, Tonking got the upper hand in this case.
That’s not to say that Newhouse was completely misguided to think that a bluff could succeed at an extremely high frequency. It was the final table of poker’s most prestigious tournament, both players had a lot at stake, and he’d already made clear that he did not want to finish in ninth place for a second year in a row. Then again, Tonking may have known and taken all of those factors into consideration.
The point I want to make is that Newhouse did not have to enter into this war at all. When you are genuinely unsure of how your opponent will respond, there are alternatives to taking your best guess. There is more to poker than good reads and “heart”. The fundamental mathematics of the game limit how much you can get away with, at least against a skilled opponent, even when you have the right read and the nerve to act on it.”
I also have an article called “Keep ‘Em Guessing” appearing on Poker News:
“The best guide I’ve found to judging my own play is my opponents’ reactions. If they seem consistently confused about whether to bet or how to respond to my bets, then I’m probably doing something right.”
Hope you enjoy them, please let me know what you think!
> There is also the possibility that Newhouse will shove an unbalanced range, making 99 a definite fold as, as in this case, it may even beat all of Newhouse’s bluffs.
I think you wanted “it may not even beat all …”
Correct, thanks for catching that.