Hero is UTG+2 with a $2500 stack, and most of the table covers. Action folds to Hero, who opens to $30 with 8s 7s. The hijack, button, and SB call. For discussion of the preflop action, see this post.
Flop ($118 in pot after rake) 7h 6d 3s. Action checks to Hero. What’s your play and why? Try to think about how you would play various parts of your range on this flop. What would your betting and checking ranges look like? If you bet, what are you hoping will happen? If you check, what are you hoping will happen?
We’ll discuss it in the comments, and I’ll post my thoughts and action tomorrow.
Good news: As of right now, we probably have the best hand. We didn’t get raised pre-flop (so villains are unlikely to have an overpair) and we have a blocker for top pair, so villains who didn’t flop the nuts aren’t going to be ahead very often, maybe occasionally we are losing to A7 or 76.
Bad news: Villains can rightly deduce, even if by accident, that we have not nailed this flop (I think they are most likely to put us on an overpair and that is going to color the rest of my thought process) so I think it is very unlikely we get 3 folds with a bet. Unfortunately, we don’t even have the overpair and our hand is only likely to get worse on the turn and river.
I’m ruling out betting since the result I really want with this hand, or with the overpair they might think I have, is for all 3 to fold and I don’t see that happening very often in this spot.
So I would check and likely call one bet from any villain. I suppose check raising (presuming there is only one bettor) may be an option if we know villains are the type of players that will give up any hands we are beating. For what it’s worth, if we do have that read, I think a check raise is more likely to result in all 3 folding before the turn than leading out.
Turn play depends on board state and what villains did behind me on the flop.
I think a lot of good things happen when we bet/fold $65-75 here. We’re mostly representing overpairs, which makes it likely that villains will fold all unpaired overcards that didn’t flop a draw. I also think we are unlikely to get raised by someone with an oesd or gutshot who is not closing the action because of the risk of getting bushwhacked in this very multiway pot. I think we get called by underpairs + gutshots, pair + gutshots, pairs, oesds, and gutshots plus overs. We will also sometimes value own ourselves against overpairs and top pair hands that beat us, but we have decent equity against these hands, and the amount we lose value owning ourselves is less than the amount we gain from folding out overcards and getting value worse hands.
I would likely bet any 2, 3, 7, 8, J, Q or K for value on the turn in a heads-up pot in order to get value from the hands we’re targeting on the flop, since these cards either improve our hand or are unlikely to have improved any hand any one of the V’s could call with on the flop.
Definite bet. The pot is 4 ways. You don’t want this to get checked around only to have random overcards pair on turn and kill your hand.
Can we get called by worse? Absolutely. Many smaller pair + gutshots will call us. sometimes the btn will float us with Ace high/backdoors. OESD, gutshot with 2 over (9Ts) will call us.
Can we get better to fold ? Not right now. But may be on turn and/or river.
So we are value betting this flop with the intention of bluffing better hands on future streets.
I would bet over pairs, top pair, many backdoor flush draws with high cards /sets/ two pairs/straight on this flop.
I would consider checking with 44/55/6x/3x, unpaired hands with no backdoor draw/sets/AA/KK
I might make a tiny bet or check with AA/KK. The idea being I want players to continue with unpaired hands and hit their Q/J/T on turn.
If we check, the 2 players behind will always bet their overpairs and 7x hands. They might decide to bet pair+gutshot/oesd. Most players will often check back ace high or king high on this board.
So by checking with AA/KK we don’t really lose much value and increase the chance of getting paid on turn.
Checking 7x here will be a disaster if our opponents decide to take a free card with their overcards.
I also want to bet my strongest hands in case I have coolered someone. So I will bet a flopped straight hoping to get raised by a set/two pair so that max money goes in before the board gets more coordinated.