Hero is UTG+2 with a $2500 stack, and most of the table covers. Action folds to Hero, who opens to $30 with 8s 7s. The hijack, button, and SB call. For discussion of the preflop action, see this post.
Flop ($118 in pot after rake) 7h 6d 3s. Action checks to Hero. Hero checks. HJ and Button check. For discussion of the flop action, see this post.
Turn ($118 in pot) 7h 6d 3s 3d. Action checks to Hero. Hero bets $80. HJ and Button fold. SB calls. For discussion of the turn action, see this post.
River ($278 in pot) 5c. SB checks. Hero?
Post your thoughts and reasoning here, and I’ll post my own thoughts and results when WCOOP permits. Remember, if you bet, be sure to discuss sizing and your plan if raised.
I think a decent part of SB’s check calling range on the turn consists of diamond draws, some with gutshots, and middle pair hands like 65s, 86s. 98 also factors (made a straight) but we do block this along with 86 for that matter.
To that end, I’m not certain we’re getting called by worse or that we can bet enough to illicit a fold from straight draws that got there but are playing the hand like a bluff catcher with the paired board.
As described in part by Andrew, our turn betting range looks like TP, drawing semi-bluffs (some better than others) and air bluffs with a Broadway high card. Therefore, while I can’t see checking back as “leaving too much money on the table”, I like a bet of $95 which could get looked up by middle pair. However, it’s thin, and we must fold to a decent check-raise.
I check the flop fairly wide here, having most overpairs in my range on the turn (probably too wide). Then bet turn roughly as you did.
I hero check most of those hands on this river, probably including this one. In theory we could bet small with this specific hand as we have the 8 blocker, but villain has a decent amount of flush draws and a correspondingly good amount of 4s/98 so bet/calling and bet/folding both feel sucky. If I do decide this is a good hand to bet, it’s to get hero calls from decent nut flush draws or 65 type hands. So bet/fold 80. The upside is that if we have this hand here we can have 98, if villain decides our weak bet means he should x/r.
I’m having a really hard time figuring out the sbs range. I can’t really see checking a straight or a boat here, so I think the range has to be heavily weighted to missed flush draws, 65 and maybe some 3s that were getting cute on the turn because your range looked weak. So we don’t get value from missed flush draws and I don’t think we get 3s to fold. So unless we want to get very cute and try to bet very small hoping to induce a check raise bluff, I think we just check behind.
I don’t see how we have much better than 40-45% vs his continuing range after the turn. It seems like we need him to both not have a bunch of 7x (all of which we lose to) and still have a bunch of optimistic 5x to have a an easy value bet, while also limiting the number of 4x he has (a debatable question given the river check). I think you need some specific reads on both his turn betting range (doesn’t semi bluff gutter balls but leads a lot of 7x) and his river donking tendencies. And God help you if he has a river cr bluff range. Unlikely but you never know and we are given no reads so I’m approaching him as an unknown. We have position and sometimes the best use of position is deciding that we can show down without putting more money in. I think we take advantage of that here.
I doubt that a hand like 98 or Ad4d is going to check the river, so I think his range is mostly unpaired diamond draws and 7’s and 6’s. You beat all 6’s and lose to all 7’s (except chop 78). Since we block a 7, I think he’s more likely to have a 6 (even though 97 is more likely than 96), so I’ll value bet targeting a 6: $150.
seems like an easy check back now.
hard to get value: (1) back door flush draws with no pair are going to fold regardless. (2)river is a pretty good card for the part of sb’s range that you were beating (75s, 64s, A4s, 44). you’d pretty much be targeting exactly 65s, 68s, A5s, 22 for value, and those hands might not call anyway (and might not even be in sb’s preflop range to boot). it’s just not enough combos compared to all the hands you’re losing to.
bluffing better hands seems quite optimistic: (you checked flop, so people may put you on missed overs, and sb should have a lot of strong hands at this point (trips, straights).
so i don’t think you can bet profitably, but if you did bet i’d go fairly large (80% of pot) thinking that this might actually fold out some better 7’s, while at the same time could be hero-called by a few worse hands that put you on overs.
Playing around with an equity calculator, I show hero with 40%-60% equity. This seems like the sweet spot for checking back and realizing that equity. Hero doesn’t have to bluff to win, yet he likely cannot bet enough to fold out similar strength hands. Short of a read on the player, I check back.
I think our range is very small number of good hands, a decent chunk of one pair hands, and again very few total bluffs. Villain likewise feels like he is only rarely going to have a big hand, so will have a middling hand the majority of the time. However, it’s quite hard for him to have a hand with any capacity to call a bet that we beat by the river – 4s? 6x?
So, if villain is very weak, i could see a small river bet as a freeroll – he’s very rarely ahead of us so bet and let him talk himself into a hero call. But the better villain is, the more I think a thin value bet looks unprofitable, and if villain is really quite good, we might even be opening ourselves up to a puke inducing check raise.
Note that 44 and 55 are beating us on this river, and both might be tempted to raise a small bet for value.