Million Mistakes

It’s one of the hallmarks of the Sunday Million that interesting hands just aren’t likely to come up. This is owing both to the remarkable weak players, against whom fancy play is largely a liability, and the shallow structure, which leaves little room to maneuver. But in thinking over my deep run last night, it occurred to me that there were a few mistakes I made as a result of not adapting well enough to the special kind of bad that you’ll encounter late in a big Sunday tournament. I’m thinking here of the satellite qualifiers and other small-time players who are playing very tight and weak and scared when they get deep because the little two and three hundred dollar money jumps mean a lot to them and they don’t want to blow it. Here are a few spots where I failed to take this psychology sufficiently into consideration. These first two occurred just after the bubble burst:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em Tourney, Big Blind is t4000 (9 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

saw flop|saw showdown

UTG (t55538)
UTG+1 (t45993)
MP1 (t29060)
MP2 (t15340)
MP3 (t98348)
Hero (t281151)
Button (t64304)
SB (t87580)
BB (t132818)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 4h, 4d.
2 folds, MP1 raises to t8000, 2 folds, Hero raises to t15751, 3 folds, MP1 raises to t28660, Hero calls t12909.

Flop: (t60120) 7c, Ts, Jc (2 players)

Turn: (t60120) Ks (2 players)

River: (t60120) Tc (2 players)

Final Pot: t60120

Results in white below:

MP1 has Ac Ah (two pair, aces and tens).

Hero has 4h 4d (two pair, tens and fours).

Outcome: MP1 wins t60120.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em Tourney, Big Blind is t4000 (9 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

saw flop|saw showdown

UTG+1 (t31738)
MP1 (t80193)
MP2 (t58520)
MP3 (t22820)
CO (t93548)
Hero (t243691)
SB (t67104)
BB (t86751)
UTG (t133618)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7s, 7c.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t9889, 4 folds, Hero raises to t15778, 2 folds, UTG+1 raises to t31338, Hero calls t15560.

Flop: (t65476) Ad, 5d, 3d (2 players)

Turn: (t65476) 2c (2 players)

River: (t65476) 9d (2 players)

Final Pot: t65476

Results in white below:

UTG+1 has Qs Qd (flush, ace high).

Hero has 7s 7c (one pair, sevens).

Outcome: UTG+1 wins t65476.

Against solid tournament players, it would be reasonable to run these big pairs up against their shoving range, especially given my big chip stack. But even after the bubble, I need to realize that unknowns like these two are likely to be on a MUCH tighter range than is correct, even for the last of their chips. Add to that the shady raise sizes, and I think both of these should be folds. In my defense, I’d seen the shady raises from both of them before, and the second guy did fold after he did it, so that alone wasn’t a decisive factor. But still.

And here’s another one where I didn’t take this guy’s passivity into account.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em Tourney, Big Blind is t12000 (8 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

saw flop|saw showdown

UTG (t245674)
UTG+1 (t275472)
MP1 (t197614)
MP2 (t208108)
CO (t219628)
Button (t207712)
SB (t301880)
Hero (t806597)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Kh, Js.
5 folds, Button raises to t36000, 1 fold, Hero raises to t805397, Button calls t170512 (All-In).

Flop: (t1019109) Ts, 3d, 6h (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t1019109) 9c (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t1019109) 8h (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t1019109

Results in white below:

Hero has Kh Js (high card, king).

Button has Ac Kc (high card, ace).

Outcome: Hero wins t598885. Button wins t420224.

Stack sizes are just perfect for me to shove KJ over a button raise. Except that this guy had been open limping most of his hands, and bells should have gone off when he came in for a raise. I’m not as sure about this one, because if the guy is scared money, maybe he is folding stuff like 55 and AQ, and I was just unlikely he had AK? I don’t know, but I think this may well be a mistake, and it did prove pretty costly.