Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $20.00 BB (2 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (SB) ($7800.50)
BB ($4029.50)
Preflop: Hero is SB with A
, K
Hero bets $60, BB raises to $220, Hero raises to $499, BB calls $279
Flop: ($998) 2, 9
, 10 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($998) 3 (2 players)
BB bets $500, Hero calls $500
River: ($1998) 9 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1111, 1 fold
Total pot: $1998 | Rake: $0.50
Results:
Hero didn’t show A, K (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $1997.50
Villain is pretty good at making thin value bets and will probably bet any pair here after I check the flop. Of course on the flop I intended to play my hand as a bluff-catcher, but the sizing of his turn bet made me second-guess that. I decided I was better off trying to bet him off a pocket pair or maybe even a T. I’m sure I have best hand here somewhat often, but I think bluffing is slightly more profitable than just showing down. That would change if I thought Villain were often going for a check-raise (bluff or value, doesn’t really matter), and though it’s a decent spot, I didn’t think he was.
I’m surprised you think the villain lays down his pocket pairs and possibly a T to a river bet here. From his perspective, if you have a T or an over pair, wouldn’t you be pretty likely to bet the flop? For 3-1 odds, I’d be pretty tempted in the villain’s position to call.
The weaker the hand is, the more likely I am to check it behind on the flop. So while I’m not often (though I am occasionally) checking AA or KK, I’m somewhat more often checking JT or A9. Even in a 3-bet pot, there aren’t too many second best hands I can expect to get it in with me on the flop.
You’re right that a lot of my flop checking range is weak, but most of that range is folding to the turn bet. When I check flop and call turn, it looks like I have either a moderate hand that doesn’t want to play for stacks but is good enough to bet the river for value, or a 9 that just improved to trips. Even a monster like quads or T’s full is possible.
The bottom line though is that it’s not very often that I’m checking the flop and calling the turn with a hand that needs to bluff on the river. Looking at it now, I can’t imagine he folds a T, but I’m pretty sure he does let go of an underpair.